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bawfuls posted:This market seems ripe for opportunity (CA-49th). No shares currently available at 23c if anyone else wants in on this one, by the way. It's a solid tip.
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Jun 5, 2018 16:37
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| # ? May 4, 2024 02:32 |
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Watch for any Minnesota markets being added. Our politicians and their parties have gone insane and the August primary is going to be huge. For governor, first we have former (R) Gov. Tim Pawlenty running again, but he didn't seek the party nomination. In the primary he'll be facing off the endorsed candidate Jeff Johnson, who has already put out a press release calling on Pawlenty to drop out (he did this before Pawlenty even formally filed his papers today). Then we have the hot mess in the DFL side, where the big candidate going into the convention was Tim Walz, current Congressman from MN-01, but he didn't get it. The endorsement went to Erin Murphy, a state legislator. Then after the convention, current state AG Lori Swanson (who was running for another AG endorsement in the convention and lost) announced now she's running for governor, with running mate Rick Nolan, current Congressman who previously said he was retiring from MN-08 now Keith Ellison (MN-05) showed up and filed to run for AG. surprise! this means there may be some crazy scramble for people to file for that congressional district, or there will be a special election, or who even knows anymore
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Jun 5, 2018 18:28
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Vox Nihili posted:No shares currently available at 23c if anyone else wants in on this one, by the way. It's a solid tip.
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Jun 6, 2018 06:33
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there's a market for second-place finishers in some CA races too: https://www.predictit.org/Market/4481/Who-will-place-second-in-the-2018-primary-for-California%27s-48th-District i don't know if it's official/verified but this appears to be the CA SoS page for results in that race: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/48
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Jun 6, 2018 20:43
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bawfuls posted:with 13% reporting I look like a chump you win some, you lose some.
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Jun 8, 2018 01:40
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I'm back with more bad tips about CA races. In the 48th, Keirstead and Rouda are currently separated by ~130 votes with likely tens of thousands left to count, and yet this market is not even close to the 50-50 it ought to be https://www.predictit.org/Market/4481/Who-will-place-second-in-the-2018-primary-for-California%27s-48th-District current results: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/48
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Jun 8, 2018 22:52
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bawfuls posted:with 13% reporting I look like a chump It turned out to be a bad take, but eh, still a good odea. I did the same bet on district 39, where folks seemed even more sure that the GOP candidate would finish first. As of today, it's currently within 2.5%, which is close but not quite close enough. Lots of votes to be counted (~33% still outstanding) and it was 3% apart after the election night, so it's been closing. If it was within maaaybe 1% it would have the potential to be an enormous windfall, as most of the users don't even realize the vote count in CA on election night is super preliminary.
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Jun 9, 2018 00:48
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Vox Nihili posted:It turned out to be a bad take, but eh, still a good odea. I did the same bet on district 39, where folks seemed even more sure that the GOP candidate would finish first. As of today, it's currently within 2.5%, which is close but not quite close enough. Lots of votes to be counted (~33% still outstanding) and it was 3% apart after the election night, so it's been closing. If it was within maaaybe 1% it would have the potential to be an enormous windfall, as most of the users don't even realize the vote count in CA on election night is super preliminary. I was on a similar thing with Fajardo in Chile. He was trading in the low single digits, 2-3c and turns out, he came within like 1.3% of placing second. If he had made second he would have won in the runoff. Oh well.
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Jun 9, 2018 01:47
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| # ? May 4, 2024 02:32 |
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My first m-m-m-mega wipe in a while: losing basically a double max on Chris G in Nevada. Was anticipating initial positive results for her, and some time before Clark came in. Got crushed before I could flip anything.
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Jun 13, 2018 21:50
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