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The Ninth Layer
Jun 20, 2007

Join us on SA's boxing discord: https://discord.gg/FUmR3An




Among boxing’s seventeen weight divisions, of which eight are the “original” divisions, there are really three that carry special weight among boxing fans. The heavyweight (200+ lb) champ will always be first and foremost the “baddest man on the planet,” the biggest and best fighter in the world that presumably no other boxer can beat. The middleweight (160 lb) champion is the biggest of the small guys, in a division where punching power starts having an outsized effect on fights which only becomes more pronounced in the higher weights. And then there is the welterweight (147 lb) champ, the best of the average-sized. Height and weight are distributed on a bell curve, and the welterweight division is situated at its peak. With more potential competitors, the division demands a high caliber of talent among its elites. To be the best welterweight is to have overcome a lot of fighters that themselves dominated the ranks in neighboring weight classes.

Throughout boxing history the top pound-for-pound fighter has often been a welterweight, and fighters in the division are often disproportionately represented in the rankings. Pernell Whitaker, Oscar De La Hoya, Shane Mosley, Floyd Mayweather, and Manny Pacquaio are welterweights in the past three decades that either held the top spot or were within spitting distance of it; the consensus greatest fighter of all time, Sugar Ray Robinson, fought most of his career at welterweight. As the first “money division” the weight class tends to attract top talent from the neighboring weight divisions, as talented smaller men who have run out of good competition make the jump up to make a name for themselves and less talented bigger men attempt to cut down for lucrative fights against its bigger stars. This influx of talent from both ends gives credence to the top welterweights’ pound-for-pound abilities; many of them either were established champions at multiple weight classes or have beaten fighters who were.

With Floyd Mayweather having ceded the top spot of both the welterweight division and the pound-for-pound rankings, the battle for both positions is still ongoing and hotly contested. No one has yet put a definitive stamp on this era of boxing even as several fighters have made strong campaigns. Terence Crawford has probably the strongest claim as top dog in the division based on visible talent and accomplishments at lightweight (135 lb) and light welter (140 lb), but a lack of willing opposition at 147 lb has somewhat stalled his career out. Manny Pacquiao at forty years old is still kicking the asses of much younger fighters, but with one foot out the door and time working against him Pac-Man’s days at the elite level are surely numbered. And then there’s Errol Spence Jr., who lacks the accomplishments of Crawford and experience of Pacquiao but possesses talent equal to either fighter. Tonight may not provide a definitive answer as to whether Spence is best in the division, but it could very well put him at the center of that conversation.




Saturday, September 28th
FOX PPV - Prelims on FS1 starting at 7:30pm E, PPV card goes live at 9:00pm E
Errol “The Truth” Spence Jr. vs Shawn “Showtime” Porter - IBF and WBC welterweight (147 lb) title unification
Anthony “The Dog” Dirrell vs David “El Bandera Roja” Benavidez - WBC super middleweight (168) title fight
Mario “El Azteca” Barrios vs Baktyr “Batuhan Gozgec” Akhmedov - jr. welterweight (140 lb)
Josecito “The Riverside Rocky” Lopez vs John “The Gladiator” Molina Jr. - welterweight (147 lb)




Depending on who you ask, Errol “The Truth” Spence Jr (25-0, 21 KO) may already be the #1 guy at welterweight. Among the top contenders for the spot, he is the only fighter considered a natural at the weight, with a big frame, big power and six feet of reach. Pegged by ESPN as 2015’s Prospect of the Year, the talented Spence delivered on the hype two years later by stopping Kell Brook in Brook’s hometown to win his first championship belt. Spence boasts wins over the likes of Chris Algieri, Lamont Peterson, and Mikey Garcia, beating them (and the rest of his opponents) with relative ease. To date, the Dallas-based fighter has mostly gone untested, with only four of his fights requiring any input from the judges at all. Spence’s physical attributes and sharp boxer-puncher style makes it difficult for opponents to take the fight to him, and his sharp and accurate offense makes it almost impossible for them to hang in with him. At only 29 years old, Spence is in his physical prime and at least for now looks unbeatable, earning comparisons to his promoter Floyd Mayweather Jr. who Spence reportedly gave a black eye to in sparring. The consensus among boxing fans is that it will take a special fighter like Terence Crawford to give Spence a real challenge, let alone beat him.



Shawn “Showtime” Porter (30-2-1, 17 KO) may not be that special fighter tonight, but he’s certainly proven himself to be a very good one that can never be counted out. The Ohio fighter is used to do-or-die fights and is no stranger to coming in the underdog. The gritty Porter has taken on a rogue’s gallery of contenders at welterweight, boasting wins over Devon Alexander, Paulie Malignaggi, Adrien Broner, Andre Berto and Danny Garcia, and losing only to Kell Brook and Keith Thurman in competitive losses. Porter at times displays a boxer-puncher style, but his bread-and-butter approach is pure pressure, taking the fight to his opponent with inside boxing tactics. Even in his losses to Brook and Thurman, Porter was relentless in his attack and sorely tested both fighters on their way to close decisions. This has earned Porter a solid reputation as a gutsy action fighter who always shows up to give it his all. It has also kept the 31-year-old “Showtime” Shawn firmly in the top ten at welterweight for several years running now, making him one of the division’s most feared contenders. Porter may never be the best, but he’s among the best of the rest.



There is no doubt that Shawn Porter may be Errol Spence’s toughest test to date. Spence’s previous fight against Mikey Garcia came against a very talented fighter among the top ten pound-for-pound, but Garcia was coming up two weight classes and was massively outsized. That won’t be the case for the stocky Porter, who gives up three inches of height and reach to Spence but is still decidedly a natural 147-pounder. Spence also boasts a win over Kell Brook, who was the first to defeat Shawn Porter, but Spence got Brook coming off a stoppage loss where Brook’s orbital bone was broken by middleweight Gennadiy Golovkin. Shawn Porter by contrast will enter this fight physically healthy and prepared for a tough fight. Porter arguably boasts an experience advantage in this bout, having fought for longer at the championship level and having overcome significant adversity in his fights, both in victory and in defeat.

However, Errol Spence is considered a sizable favorite in this match and for good reason. He has it all: size, reach, speed, power, footwork, accuracy. He’s longer than Porter and much sharper from the outside, and knows how to take on a game fighter from midrange or the inside. He has one-punch power and a killer instinct that lets him know when to focus on putting his opponent away. He is also a very difficult boxer to find, as Mikey Garcia found out last March, and even when caught he has a solid chin that at least to date has shown no vulnerability. Fighting him at range will be a losing game for Porter, and taking the fight to him will be a punishing and exceedingly difficult endeavor. Where Spence was a -450 betting favorite against Mikey Garcia, here he is a much wider -850, reflecting the oddsmakers’ skepticism over Porter’s path to victory.



Truth be told, there may be no path to victory for Porter. As the smaller guy, Porter will need to get on the inside early and often against Spence, land significant work to the body to slow the younger fighter down, avoid Spence’s jab and counters, wear him out with roughhouse tactics, and in general just never allow Spence to get settled in this fight. Even then, Porter will likely have to ground out a points decision against a fighter it is very difficult to win rounds against. Porter is not known for exceptional power and is unlikely to knock Spence out, but the flipside is that Porter has never been stopped either, so his best chance in all likelihood is to make it a dirty inside fight, keep working all night and generate enough close uncertain rounds to make this bout to score. He’ll need to make Spence work harder than the young champ has ever worked before, and then he’ll need a good amount of luck on top of that.

My Prediction: I think rather than the traditional feeling out round, Porter just comes straight forward and attempts to get a fast start, perhaps surprising Spence who might have preferred to exchange jabs early. Porter will focus on the body and probably make good use of the clinch to wrestle Spence and wear him out on the inside. Porter will try to back Spence up against the ropes, but by the third or fourth round I expect Spence will have gotten good at strafing out of range and mostly keeping Porter at bay. We may see a second wind from Porter going into the second half of the fight as Spence begins to grow tired, and it may be Spence now tying up Porter to keep him from working. However, I think a lack of effective offense from Porter in these rounds will give Spence a firm lead on the scorecards, and even though an increasingly desperate Porter will continue to grind out the fight in the championship rounds I don’t see it being enough. I see the fight going the distance and Spence winning by somewhere around an 8-4 margin. Spence by unanimous decision.




The Undercard



This time around we got a pretty compelling undercard, with several interesting or relevant fights that promise plenty of action before the main event. The co-feature is especially strong, a world title fight at super middleweight (168 lb) between two guys who both have the distinction of out-performing their more hyped boxing brothers. Anthony “The Dog” Dirrell (33-1-1, 24 KO) has hung around the top of the division since 2014, outlasting his older brother Andre, but has not yet picked up a true signature win yet. He’s a tough fighter with a fair amount of talent and has shown his fighting style to live up to his name. He faces David “El Bandera Roja” Benavidez (21-0, 18 KO), the younger brother of somewhat busted prospect Jose Benavidez. David brings considerable punching power to the ring, along with a rugged style that has helped him deliver the style. Of note is that the two are fighting for the WBC belt that Benavidez held before he tested positive for cocaine; Dirrell holds the title now so this fight is a nice way to settle who really deserves the belt.

Right before that, we have a jr. welterweight (140 lb) bout featuring Mario “El Azteca” Barrios (24-0, 16 KO), a 24-year old prospect from San Antonio. Barrios competed in the 2016 Olympics albeit without distinction, and from what I hear he’s not setting the world on fire or anything, but he’s young and in a very talent-loaded division so perhaps he will make something of himself down the road. His opponent, Russian Baktyr “Batuhan Gozgec” Akhmedov (7-0, 6 KO) is a southpaw with a fair amount of punching power and a pretty good body attack. I don’t know too much about either fighter, but this should represent a step up for both men, who are still very early in their pro careers.

The PPV opener looks to be a real barn burner between two veterans known for their action fights. Josecito “The Riverside Rocky” Lopez (36-8, 19 KO) has spent most of his career as an opponent to bigger names, but has upset the apple cart a few times, and in every showing has come to fight. He’s coming off a good showing against Keith Thurman, who he hurt and sent running, even as it wasn’t enough to close the show. John “The Gladiator” Molina Jr. (30-8, 24 KO) is no stranger to tough wars either, and has fought a long list of fellow action stars, including Lucas Matthysse, Humberto Soto, and Ruslan Provodnikov. Both fighters are on the tail end of their grueling careers, but expect them both to come prepared for battle and willing to go right after each other.

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ozymandius1024
Mar 15, 2006

You don't yank on the Spine of God
I'm not very hyped about the main event, but that is an otherwise solid card.

I'm with you that Lopez and Molina Jr could be a banger.

ccubed
Jul 14, 2016

How's it hanging, brah?
Robert "The Ghost" Guerrero is still boxing?

The SituAsian
Oct 29, 2006

I'm a mess in distress
But we're still the best dressed

ccubed posted:

Robert "The Ghost" Guerrero is still boxing?

He retired after he got beat really bad by Omar Figueroa Jr. in 2017 but, you know with boxing and retirements.

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
I enjoyed the Barrios Akhmedov fight

KidDynamite
Feb 11, 2005

Benavidez is loving gigantic holy poo poo

KidDynamite
Feb 11, 2005

Since when is a cut stoppage a win and not judges decision?? Also this doctor is a butcher

KidDynamite
Feb 11, 2005

Dirrel is a mad man switched to leading with cut eye side

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
Wow, pretty impressive work from Benavidez

KidDynamite
Feb 11, 2005

GalacticAcid posted:

Wow, pretty impressive work from Benavidez

Yeah that was some good work. I thought the body shots early from Dirrell were going to gently caress him.

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

KidDynamite posted:

Since when is a cut stoppage a win and not judges decision?? Also this doctor is a butcher

When it’s caused by a punch

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

if that girl is going to scream the whole fight i'm out

KidDynamite
Feb 11, 2005

oh no high pitched screaming woman.

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

this is a good fight. spence's sharper work and dick punches are working well tho

KidDynamite
Feb 11, 2005

this is a good rear end fight

KidDynamite
Feb 11, 2005

shawn porter #1 foot stepper

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

this is basically quantity vs quality at this stage

porter doing way better than i expected

Dave Grool
Oct 21, 2008



Grimey Drawer
fight owns

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

i have no idea how you'd score this fight. if it gets to it i bet the scorecards are going to be all over the place

Dave Grool
Oct 21, 2008



Grimey Drawer
holky poo poo

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

This fight owns

Wise Learned Man
Apr 22, 2008

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Lipstick Apathy
Phenomenal fight. After the first couple I didn't even try to score it, just enjoyed it.

KidDynamite
Feb 11, 2005

that was a loving fight. spence won clearly off that knock down. i think it could have been an ugly decision otherwise

thehappyprince
Apr 4, 2006

Alastair Cock

great fight. spence by 2 or 3 probably

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

Larry Hazard Jr is retarded

KidDynamite
Feb 11, 2005

wackkkkkkkkkkkkk

The SituAsian
Oct 29, 2006

I'm a mess in distress
But we're still the best dressed

KidDynamite posted:

wackkkkkkkkkkkkk

But enough about Danny Garcia

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
Also hey Ninth Layer - thank you so much for the OP. Sent segments of it to a couple friends of mine.

Huge shoutout for your hard work.

KidDynamite
Feb 11, 2005

The SituAsian posted:

But enough about Danny Garcia

That was exactly why I wrote that.

Jump King
Aug 10, 2011

Says a lot about Spence that I’m annoyed he’s fighting top 5 welter Danny Garcia next

The SituAsian
Oct 29, 2006

I'm a mess in distress
But we're still the best dressed
I mean if you look at PBC welterweights there's 5 names that are well above the rest

Spence - We don't yet have the technology but someday
Porter - Just beat
Thurman - Lost to Pacquiao
Pacquiao - Staying as far as away as possible
Garcia - There you go

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Jump King
Aug 10, 2011

You could argue Yordenis Ugas isn’t that far behind too.

If only there were any good welterweights outside of PBC. Sadly there aren’t any.

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