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Has there been any analysis done on what California could do if it decided to gerrymander its congressional districts? I know this is purely academic since a non-partisan committee creates the map in CA, but it's interesting to think about anyway. Currently California is 42D-11R but many of the districts around LA and SF are D+20 or more, so there'd be plenty of room to dilute them in order to flip the more rural districts. Even the super conservative areas of the state such as CA-1 and CA-23 are only R+10 or thereabouts. I feel like it wouldn't be too difficult to channel urban votes into those areas to flip them (or at least make them competitive). Looking at the map, pretty much every rural district has a D+10 or greater district to tap into nearby. I think if they decided to gerrymander a 50D-2R map would be entirely possible, maybe even 51D-1R. They would be able to flip all of the Republican districts near Bakersfield and Orange County pretty easily by channeling LA and SD votes into them. Then they could concentrate the rest of the super conservative areas in the Eastern Sierra and Southern Cascades into one or two districts. That would represent a D+8 or D+9 swing which would almost wipe out all of the changes made in other states. Currently Dems have a supermajority in both chambers in CA so if the state party were willing they could change the law. I wonder if there's been any pressure from the national Democratic party for the state to change its redistricting process?
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Nov 6, 2021 00:46
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https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1489645662832627714?s=20&t=EQ8NDcFOMYUDr25Z2OQQfA This is one... unexpected development. Democrats have been able to win in court against gerrymandering and while voters don't care for the Biden economy Trump is still worse.
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Feb 6, 2022 01:03
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I’m sure the Republican Party doubling down on 1/6 by declaring it valid political discourse or whatever doesn’t hurt. We like to joke about Democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory but goddamn they really are mask off going full fash. I will say as I go door to door collecting signatures from registered Dems for ballot access it seems like 1. Everybody is cabin fevery and wants to talk your ear off and 2. The subject is how nucking futz Republicans have become and how it’s vital to keep them the hell out of office, regardless of their feelings about Biden or whatever.
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Feb 6, 2022 23:56
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Oracle posted:I will say as I go door to door collecting signatures from registered Dems for ballot access it seems like 1. Everybody is cabin fevery and wants to talk your ear off and 2. The subject is how nucking futz Republicans have become and how it’s vital to keep them the hell out of office, regardless of their feelings about Biden or whatever. I am really glad to hear this because every day is seems like the right is getting bolder and more brazen about wanting to end democracy. I can only imagine the wild system of trickle down patronage and literal privilege they would put in place ruled by some Orwellian nightmare of religion, propaganda and nationalism.
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Feb 7, 2022 00:36
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Yea, I hope your experience is typical Oracle. I have completely lost trust in polls since the last two elections, so I don’t really know what the general population thinks. Dems could easily hammer 1/6 and abortion this year to drive people to the polls to vote against republicans.
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Feb 9, 2022 12:44
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Bird in a Blender posted:Yea, I hope your experience is typical Oracle. I have completely lost trust in polls since the last two elections, so I don’t really know what the general population thinks. Dems could easily hammer 1/6 and abortion this year to drive people to the polls to vote against republicans. My walk list was pretty hardcore Dems - those that voted in at least one primary in the last four years - so the base is still quite loyal and ready to turn out. Plus side I met a lot of high school and new college kids in said families who were raring to go and registered or were going to be by voting time.
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Feb 9, 2022 18:40
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1489645662832627714?s=20&t=EQ8NDcFOMYUDr25Z2OQQfA 1. Republican states were already extremely gerrymandered. They simply didn't/don't have too much headroom to make it worse. Some Democratic states (New York, for example) were not heavily gerrymandered before, so there was space to get a good number of seats. And a few courts kicked out previously gerrymandered Republican maps, 2. Republicans are focusing more on making red seats even more red. Democrats are focusing more on making competitive seats more Democratic. This has the danger that if Democrats get punished hard enough, then it is possible that their gerrymanders will fail hard. Republicans are almost impossible to really punish hard, but they haven't really made more seats competitive. https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1490069355572436992
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Feb 9, 2022 23:35
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| # ? May 4, 2024 20:14 |
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That's a better development but that also means we're going to see more extremist politicians which I don't know if that's a good thing either especially on the right-wing side.
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Feb 10, 2022 06:42
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