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This thread is for the Discussion of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation in response to the ongoing Iran drama, but can also cover any other countries ongoing attempts to acquire a weapon. Couples of rules: Keep Clancyism to a minimum We're discussing the geopolitical effects of proliferation, not conspiracy theories May be some discussion about the science behind proliferation Keep it friendly, and back with sources where possible.
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Feb 8, 2021 16:23
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Some good Proliferation References Research Groups and Resources IAEA - https://www.iaea.org/ Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (Home of the Doomsday Clock) - https://thebulletin.org/ Arms Control Association - https://www.armscontrol.org Nuclear Threat Initiative - https://www.nti.org/ Federation of American Scientists - https://fas.org/ - https://fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/index.html Arms Control Center - https://armscontrolcenter.org/ Home of the Nukes of Hazard Podcast: https://armscontrolcenter.org/nukes-of-hazard-home/ NukeStrat: The Nuclear Information Project - https://www.nukestrat.com/ Researchers: https://twitter.com/NuclearAnthro https://twitter.com/MysteriousDrBex?s=20 CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Feb 8, 2021 |
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Feb 8, 2021 16:23
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Has North Korea been more or less belligerent since it's rapproachment with SK and the US in 2018 (partially resulting from it's ability to send icbms as far as DC?) Would this be a case of successful nuclear deterrence, since the Juche has been able to protect it's national security?
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Feb 8, 2021 16:40
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Grouchio posted:Has North Korea been more or less belligerent since it's rapproachment with SK and the US in 2018 (partially resulting from it's ability to send icbms as far as DC?) Would this be a case of successful nuclear deterrence, since the Juche has been able to protect it's national security? IIRC They've doubled down on their MRBM/ICBM program and were showing off the results of that at their last big parade, and the current estimate is that they are producing enough material to make at least a couple nuclear devices a year by now, with a possible stockpile of 30-40 devices already. Most likely these devices are small Uranium fission weapons, not Thermonuclear devices, but its enough. https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/ CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 16:51 on Feb 8, 2021 |
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Feb 8, 2021 16:44
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But not really the point of the question. But I'd say the answer to whether they've become more or less belligerent is answered by the question itself. We haven't heard a whole lot out of them for the past few years. Although this could also be the result of the Korean lefts success at initiating positive diplomacy, as opposed to the mere existence of nuclear weapons.
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Feb 8, 2021 17:01
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Zedhe Khoja posted:But not really the point of the question. But I'd say the answer to whether they've become more or less belligerent is answered by the question itself. We haven't heard a whole lot out of them for the past few years. Although this could also be the result of the Korean lefts success at initiating positive diplomacy, as opposed to the mere existence of nuclear weapons. We haven't heard a lot of them because they made it clear when they backed out of the Non-Proliferation treaty, what is left to say? What little they have said has been largely antagonistic and their testing regimen kind of speaks for itself. And I don't really see major inroads being made with a country that open still views itself as the "True Korea" and is still aggressively pursuing military programs over civil ones. Its a Nationalist Dictatorship with dressings of Stalinism, military goals are the only thing they really know. Chinas steps in 2017 made it clear that even they are concerned about North Koreas military ICBM/Nuclear goals. The last seismic test has their current peak weapons strength at 250 kilotons, North Korea claimed it was a Hydrogen weapon, its more likely it was a boosted fission device. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 17:18 on Feb 8, 2021 |
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Feb 8, 2021 17:10
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CommieGIR posted:We haven't heard a lot of them because they made it clear when they backed out of the Non-Proliferation treaty, what is left to say? Their testing regimen kind of speaks for itself. And I don't really see major inroads being made with a country that open still views itself as the "True Korea" and is still aggressively pursuing military programs over civil ones. I'm fairly sure Grouchio was asking about whether the existence of those nukes increased/decreased their belligerence in ways that aren't "having/making nuclear weapons". More conventional belligerence.
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Feb 8, 2021 17:18
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Zedhe Khoja posted:I'm fairly sure Grouchio was asking about whether the existence of those nukes increased/decreased their belligerence in ways that aren't "having/making nuclear weapons". More conventional belligerence. I'd say increased: quote:July 4, 2020: North Korean first vice-minister of foreign affairs, Choe Son Hui, issues a statement condemning the prospect of continued U.S.-North Korea talks. "The U.S. is mistaken if it thinks things like negotiations would still work on us," she says, adding "we do not feel any need to sit face to face with the U.S., as it does not consider the DPRK-U.S. dialogue as nothing more than a tool for grappling its political crisis."
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Feb 8, 2021 17:19
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Eh, telling the US and it's endless demands of unilateral disarmament to get stuffed are appropriate for a state that has that ability. More relevant is NK blowing up the joint liason office and shutting off all communication with SK in 2020, despite warming relations in 2019. The change in policy seems to be driven by Yo-Jong, who's kind of a colicky shithead who favors total diplomatic isolation on general principle. Maybe KJU will murder her or something, but she's pretty young and seems more interested in governing than her brother so it's probably a shitshow for the foreseeable future.
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Feb 8, 2021 17:33
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Zedhe Khoja posted:More relevant is NK blowing up the joint liason office and shutting off all communication with SK in 2020, despite warming relations in 2019. The change in policy seems to be driven by Yo-Jong, who's kind of a colicky shithead who favors total diplomatic isolation on general principle. Maybe KJU will murder her or something, but she's pretty young and seems more interested in governing than her brother so it's probably a shitshow for the foreseeable future. True, we'll see where she goes, I could see her gaining more sway since she actually seems to want to ACTIVELY govern versus her brother who just does a lot of vague statements and photo ops.
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Feb 8, 2021 17:41
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Thanks for making this thread, CommieGIR! It's one I've wanted to do for a while, but just never could find the time, and yours is off to a great start. Hans Kristensen (Federation of American Scientists, Nuclear Information Project, and a few other things) has an interesting Twitter thread going on the late George Shultz and his role in arms control. It's an interesting read in and of itself, but he highlights an important issue that the Biden Admin is likely going to have to deal with one way or another: https://twitter.com/nukestrat/status/1358603122436935680 It's a relatively small-bore item, to be sure, compared to renewing New-START or getting the U.S. signed on again with the Iran Deal, but as Kristensen's story demonstrates, it can create larger diplomatic (and domestic political) issues. So I also hope Biden cancels this plan ASAP.
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Feb 8, 2021 17:59
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Majorian posted:Thanks for making this thread, CommieGIR! It's one I've wanted to do for a while, but just never could find the time, and yours is off to a great start. Yeah, this concern is going to come up more with things like the hypersonic cruise missiles and Status-6, I agree with the current findings that while they won't unbalance MAD and change little in that regards, it just create an unhealthy diplomatic environment to have this stuff on Destroyers/Cruisers doing port visits. Its not beneficial for these weapons to be carried like that. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 18:34 on Feb 8, 2021 |
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Feb 8, 2021 18:26
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So get to bounce this thread, because UK just announced they are going to produce more warheads, up to 260 from 200 (which is the ceiling in the Non-Proliferation Treaty they signed) https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/39782/uk-to-increase-its-nuclear-warhead-stockpile-for-the-first-time-since-the-cold-war-report
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Mar 16, 2021 21:30
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CommieGIR posted:So get to bounce this thread, because UK just announced they are going to produce more warheads, up to 260 from 200 (which is the ceiling in the Non-Proliferation Treaty they signed)
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Mar 17, 2021 14:58
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So, exciting and worrying stuff this past week: Its likely Israel carried out sabotage via an employee on Iran's enrichment center causing a power outage: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/17/iran-names-suspect-in-natanz-nuclear-plant-attack And then this AM, an Earthquake struck the province of Iran's nuclear plant.' https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/18/magnitude-5-9-earthquake-hits-southern-iran-no-major-damage
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Apr 18, 2021 18:00
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Budzilla posted:I didn't know this thread existed. Can someone explain to me why Russia seems hands off with the North Korean nuclear program? I would assume that NK would have to fire ICBMs over the poles to hit the lower 48 US states which means ICBMs travel over Russian Siberia. Or are they hoping the NK submarine program will be the long term delivery system for warheads? looking at great circle mappers, it looks like that's true targets in the midwest and the east coast, but west coast targets would just barely graze kamchatka. in any case, the russians probably figure the odds of a nuclear exchange are low enough, and siberia is sparse enough, that there's not a positive cost/benefit to providing international support to the us over the issue
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Apr 18, 2021 18:33
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Just giving this a quick bump since we're discussing Russia's Nuclear Doomsday weapons in USNews.
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Jul 16, 2021 03:01
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One thing Trump did upon taking office was ended transparency into the size of the US Nuclear Stockpile, Biden has rolled that back https://twitter.com/nukestrat/status/1445484120679669761?s=20
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Oct 5, 2021 21:58
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Nuclear weapons are cool
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Oct 8, 2021 20:34
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Arglebargle III posted:Nuclear weapons are cool i think you'll find they actually range from slightly warm to very, very hot
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Oct 9, 2021 00:42
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Arglebargle III posted:Nuclear weapons are cool They are interesting in a morbid way, sure.
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Oct 9, 2021 00:44
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There needs to be at least one more nuclear weapons test so humanity isn’t stuck with that one house blowing one way then the other being mankind’s only good stock footage
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Oct 9, 2021 01:58
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CommieGIR posted:And then this AM, an Earthquake struck the province of Iran's nuclear plant.' Not just specifically nuclear, but pretty much everything important in Iran sits in seismically active areas, with quakes happening a long time apart and thus nobody bothering to build earthquake resistant buildings, meaning they can be very destructive when they do happen. Even Tehran itself sits in a dangerous spot and will eventually be flattened by an earthquake.
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Oct 9, 2021 16:27
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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Arglebargle III posted:Nuclear weapons are cool they're mostly spicy. very spicy.
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Oct 12, 2021 19:18
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Slightly off topic but the dates for the Trinity Site's open house have changed for 2022 https://twitter.com/NuclearAnthro/status/1448074061490364417?s=20
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Oct 13, 2021 00:57
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