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Has DND ever tried to forecast global events a la Tetlock's superforecasting book? Seems like there are plenty of people here who get passionate about their views. Wonder if we can use that sort of thing for good by aggregating it and seeing if we can get a wisdom of the crowds effect going. What kinds of predictions would you be interested in knowing the odds of? oliveoil fucked around with this message at 05:33 on Oct 3, 2021 |
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Oct 3, 2021 05:24
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oliveoil posted:Has DND ever tried to forecast global events a la Tetlock's superforecasting book? Could you elaborate on exactly what that is and why it'd be a better methodology than the Immortal Science?
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Oct 3, 2021 07:40
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just let me take your money on predictit instead
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Oct 3, 2021 08:57
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Epic High Five posted:Could you elaborate on exactly what that is and why it'd be a better methodology than the Immortal Science? Comprehending class gives you a huge edge, actually.
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Oct 3, 2021 14:59
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so many people toxxed for Bernie Sanders that the mods banned election toxxes altogether because it was too much work to ban so many people
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Oct 3, 2021 15:07
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I don’t thing any goon has ever predicted anything correctly ever
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Oct 3, 2021 15:12
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I don’t thing any goon has ever predicted anything correctly ever There was the modern Nostradamus who watched Bush start a loving war
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Oct 3, 2021 15:21
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RBA Starblade posted:There was the modern Nostradamus who watched Bush start a loving war
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Oct 3, 2021 20:18
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RBA Starblade posted:There was the modern Nostradamus who watched Bush start a loving war Whatever, Bush started three wars.
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Oct 4, 2021 17:54
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I don’t thing any goon has ever predicted anything correctly ever That's a bit overstated, but in general, yeah, the records of the people here who go around making predictions most prominently are not very good. Worse, some of them will twist their own words afterward to argue that the events that proved them wrong actually proved them right, so they avoid having to reevaluate the assumptions behind their predictions.
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Oct 4, 2021 19:45
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Silver2195 posted:That's a bit overstated, but in general, yeah, the records of the people here who go around making predictions most prominently are not very good. Worse, some of them will twist their own words afterward to argue that the events that proved them wrong actually proved them right, so they avoid having to reevaluate the assumptions behind their predictions. We could do something unambiguous. E.g., everyone give a probability that the US gets into a hot war with China or Russia within the next two years. Or infrastructure deal that is currently going on:l. We could all assign probabilities to these outcomes: 1. No infrastructure bill 2. Infrastructure bill worth less than $1T 3. Infrastructure bill $1-2T 4. Etc If someone says there's a 100% probability that the infrastructure bill will pass with $3T in spending then they can't turn around and claim to be right when it passes with $4T in spending. Plus I think if this less as competition and more collaborative. Rather than trying to convince each other to change our minds, I'd like to see what average and median probabilities D&D comes up with. Is D&D smarter as a group than anyone individually?
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Oct 6, 2021 00:13
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you're confusing the infrastructure and reconciliation bills, but also here's the market you want https://kalshi.com/markets/RECSZ-001 there's no better way to prove you're right than taking someone else's money
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Oct 6, 2021 00:51
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oliveoil posted:Is D&D smarter as a group than anyone individually? there is extensive evidence that the answer is "no"
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Oct 6, 2021 00:58
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Main Paineframe posted:there is extensive evidence that the answer is "no" iraq invasion dot tee ex tee
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Oct 6, 2021 01:08
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i say swears online posted:you're confusing the infrastructure and reconciliation bills, but also here's the market you want https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7291/How-much-spending-in-the-reconciliation-package this a clearer market (on a better site) that has good brackets
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Oct 6, 2021 01:08
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i say swears online posted:iraq invasion dot tee ex tee that was GBS, they're the true prophets here
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Oct 6, 2021 02:54
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I predict that everything will continue to get worse overall
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Oct 6, 2021 05:23
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I don’t thing any goon has ever predicted anything correctly ever I predicted global just in time supply chains were unstable particularly relating to containership liners.
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Oct 6, 2021 23:46
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Bar Ran Dun posted:I predicted global just in time supply chains were unstable particularly relating to containership liners. grats
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Oct 7, 2021 07:56
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I don’t thing any goon has ever predicted anything correctly ever Goons pretty consistently back the wrong horse.
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Oct 7, 2021 14:05
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I see liberals' obsession with "data science" and I'm reminded of the apocryphal story of the barbarians storming the imperial palace in Rome, to see with shock that instead of preparing a defense, the courtiers were playing tarot cards and telling each others' fortunes. Dems are hosed and they know it lol https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/1446479433825611785
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Oct 9, 2021 08:07
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David Shor is a racism dial guy who's convinced that the reason Dems are losing is because poor people and minorities hate things like labor rights, abortion, defunding the police, and letting immigrant enter the US. His prescription for Democratic success is that the Dems should stop letting wealthy billionaires drag them left, and instead embrace a new moderate right-populism based around welfare for white people, big tax cuts, and patriotic support of law enforcement and the military. In his eyes, issues like climate change, unions, and LGBT rights have no place in Democratic platforms, which should never even mention those issues until the Dems have attained a solid supermajority. People have been debating various interpretations of that in USNews, and obviously my own interpretation of his stance is fairly uncharitable, but the thing that strikes me the most when I read anything he says is how much it reminds me of New Democrat ideology. The whole concept of "social issues are unpopular, so we have to pretend not to support them, and then try to sneak them in as part of other bills after we win" is straight out of the 90s Dem excuse notebook.
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Oct 9, 2021 18:00
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Main Paineframe posted:David Shor is a racism dial guy who's convinced that the reason Dems are losing is because poor people and minorities hate things like labor rights, abortion, defunding the police, and letting immigrant enter the US. His prescription for Democratic success is that the Dems should stop letting wealthy billionaires drag them left, and instead embrace a new moderate right-populism based around welfare for white people, big tax cuts, and patriotic support of law enforcement and the military. In his eyes, issues like climate change, unions, and LGBT rights have no place in Democratic platforms, which should never even mention those issues until the Dems have attained a solid supermajority. Haha wow, Ezra left out quite a bit here lol. The thing I realize from reading about both Shor and his opponents in the article above is that they're all at least partially right in their diagnosis - the Democratic tent is so big that some of these things are probably true for a lot of their voters. But like you said, Shor's prescription is warmed-over DLC material. But everyone else has it wrong, too. You want to increase turnout based on excitement about key issues? How's that working out when your own caucus vetoes all of that stuff? Then there's the people openly admitting that all they can do is to get people to come out against Trump, basically admitting that they're entirely out of ideas. And they're probably right about that, the internal contradictions of the Democratic party are really coming to light, and it's interesting to see this realization dawn on liberals like Ezra Klein.
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Oct 9, 2021 20:08
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RBA Starblade posted:There was the modern Nostradamus who watched Bush start a loving war yeah and 20 years later that's still the last time a goon was right about anything
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Oct 9, 2021 20:40
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It's weird the start a war thing has been reframed as a unique prediction. 9/11 was the largest attack on US soil basically ever and it was the first major world even that got to be nearly livestreamed to everyone's home in near real time, like 75% of the US population was probably calling for military action that day the second it seemed like it even might be a potentially some sort of attack.
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Oct 10, 2021 00:49
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:It's weird the start a war thing has been reframed as a unique prediction. 9/11 was the largest attack on US soil basically ever and it was the first major world even that got to be nearly livestreamed to everyone's home in near real time, like 75% of the US population was probably calling for military action that day the second it seemed like it even might be a potentially some sort of attack. did you make one of those iraq predictions
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Oct 10, 2021 03:06
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I don’t thing any goon has ever predicted anything correctly ever I was predicting Ghislaine Maxwell would still be alive, lo and behold she is
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Oct 12, 2021 21:22
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“Superforcasting” is just having people who get really good at fermi problems aggregate their guesses about stuff. It’s really not that hard is just that everyone whose job is nominally to make predictions and tell the public is actually hired to be sensational or tell people what they want to hear.
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Oct 14, 2021 16:34
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:“Superforcasting” is just having people who get really good at fermi problems aggregate their guesses about stuff. That's why I think we can do it better. Since none of us are trying to please members of the public and we're all anonymous so there's no ego.
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Oct 14, 2021 22:11
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oliveoil posted:That's why I think we can do it better. Since none of us are trying to please members of the public and we're all anonymous so there's no ego. Found the logical flaw in your plan, sorry! Pseudonymity is not anonymity.
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Oct 14, 2021 22:19
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you're goddamn right i spike that football when i predict a spicy one
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Oct 14, 2021 22:34
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I guess if this the thread for throwing out spicy guesses about politics mine is that Latinos will as a bloc increasingly vote like whites. In that the differences in vote share between groups of them and similar groups of white people along lines such as rural/urban, college/no college, income level, etc. will overall diminish over the next couple of cycles.
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Oct 15, 2021 01:49
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