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CPOE will reward a QB less for completing a high volume of short, high percentage passes, as will EPA/play, whereas the rest of them don't notice, if the QB is getting lots of possessions.
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Dec 15, 2021 02:33
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blarzgh posted:CPOE, and to an extent PFF grades are averages, whereas DVOA and QBR are not volume stats.
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Dec 15, 2021 02:41
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fsif posted:DVOA and QBR are not volume stats. They're cumulative, the others are rate, so yeah
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Dec 15, 2021 04:54
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Congrats to the Chargers who analysised themselves into a loss
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Dec 17, 2021 05:35
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Colts beat the patriots with only 5 passes. Analytics is in shambles
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Dec 19, 2021 05:14
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Ches Neckbeard posted:Colts beat the patriots with only 5 passes. Analytics is in shambles Analytics says the average pass is better than the average run; analytics also says that if your runs will get more yards, on average, in a game than your passes will, then you should continue to run. Which is what happened in both the Buffalo and Indy games. Yet another win for Analytics!
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Dec 19, 2021 16:29
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I do think we're entering into a weird period of time in which analytics isn't going to disproven or whatever but a lot of the "don't run" evangelists are going to get owned in increasingly obvious ways. Defenses are finding a way to slow down the passing explosion with split safeties, and offenses are adjusting by running against the light boxes. We'll probably see some sort of evolution in the next year followed by a widespread adoption, but I think we've got a bit of a weird situation where some of the tools for slowing down these offenses(ie front-7 guys who can play in gap and a half/two-gap to let you just play split safeties) or the stuff for beating those adjustments on offense(good in-line TEs) don't exactly grow on trees.
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Dec 19, 2021 17:45
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blarzgh posted:Analytics says the average pass is better than the average run; analytics also says that if your runs will get more yards, on average, in a game than your passes will, then you should continue to run. Your move, analytics 
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Dec 19, 2021 18:11
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Somehow, "hey, this newly available information says football has been wrong about certain things" became some weird football culture war and I truly don't understand why
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Dec 19, 2021 18:32
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blarzgh posted:Somehow, "hey, this newly available information says football has been wrong about certain things" became some weird football culture war and I truly don't understand why Get back in the locker nerd.
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Dec 19, 2021 18:38
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get with times gramps, nowadays we calculate probabilities, sorry if thats too much for you to handle
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Dec 19, 2021 18:50
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The correlation between running the ball and winning football games is 1. Go ahead and throw those quarterbacks in the trash and invest in another fullback instead.
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Dec 19, 2021 18:51
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blarzgh posted:Somehow, "hey, this newly available information says football has been wrong about certain things" became some weird football culture war and I truly don't understand why You must be a killer at parties
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Dec 19, 2021 19:53
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Enjoying posters on Something Awful.Com now pretending they were the jocks in high school
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Dec 19, 2021 23:57
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https://twitter.com/SethWalder/status/1472712722110373893?t=9bkmWaWVytOfSc4YMB9Ljw&s=19
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Dec 20, 2021 17:22
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Magicpants posted:thank you bill belichick for ending advanced stats once and for all Looks like advanced analytics is back! 
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Dec 26, 2021 22:59
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Counterpoint: https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1475189500775174146?s=20
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Dec 27, 2021 00:25
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Dork rear end
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Dec 27, 2021 09:49
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They beat the mighty Chargers and Browns it wasn’t at all a mirage ok?
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Dec 27, 2021 17:04
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Just wanna go back to a day when this newfangled Forward Pass wasn't dominating the game, and ruining the purity of football. https://twitter.com/SportsbyBrooks/status/1475308624712974338?t=3ZP5uScGDMxcOPU9GbVimw&s=19 Pre-1940
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Dec 28, 2021 00:04
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Flea flickers, naked bootlegs, crossing patterns. They were attacking all points of the field!
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Dec 28, 2021 00:06
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Bills have come up with a brilliant strategy of just scoring touchdowns every drive. I'm surprised it took a team so long to come up with this clever strategy.
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Jan 16, 2022 12:11
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Wait hold on they were able to effectively run AND pass the ball? Is that legal?
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Jan 16, 2022 16:22
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I've looked at the numbers and it seems like running a QB draw at 14 seconds left in midfield with no timeouts is not the most optimal play in that situation.
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Jan 17, 2022 20:39
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I'm getting word that two attempts to score a touchdown is better than one, and that both one and two attempts are better than zero. This is high level math, it simply cannot be disputed
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Jan 17, 2022 20:45
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https://twitter.com/arjunmenon100/status/1488558131638685702?t=uHG51NHjGzNHLfflVFynEg&s=19 Feel like this metric gets things about right. Thoughts?
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Feb 1, 2022 19:12
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That feels right
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Feb 1, 2022 19:53
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https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1489654955132784642?t=pjZivqWBX9xo5O21wF_lvQ&s=19
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Feb 5, 2022 00:50
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i think baker will prove to be at least x0.9 of kirk when he is healthy and everything has chilled out some. i've always believed in only three browns qbs since becoming a fan of nfl football. tim couch, baker mayfield, and cody kessler who i think could have slanged it if given better opportunities. i know the stats don't say so but sometimes he would slang it but not often.
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Feb 5, 2022 00:56
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Proof of gently caress picks
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Feb 14, 2022 04:15
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I was curious if there were any studies done to back up the idea of a player being "injury prone" and found this study from the other football that seems like it would still apply. Abstract Background: Previous injury is often proposed to be a risk factor for football injury, but most studies rely on players reporting their own medical history and are thus potentially subject to recall bias. Little is known about the natural variation in injury pattern between seasons. Objectives: To study whether prospectively recorded injuries during one season are associated with injuries sustained during the following season, and to compare injury risk and injury pattern between consecutive seasons. Methods: The medical staffs of 12 elite Swedish male football teams prospectively recorded individual exposure and time loss injuries over two full consecutive seasons (2001 and 2002). A multivariate model was used to determine the relation between previous injury, anthropometric data, and the risk of injury. Results: The training and match injury incidences were similar between seasons (5.1 v 5.3 injuries/1000 training hours and 25.9 v 22.7/1000 match hours), but analysis of injury severity and injury patterns showed variations between seasons. Players who were injured in the 2001 season were at greater risk of any injury in the following season compared with non-injured players (hazard ratio 2.7; 95% confidence interval 1.7 to 4.3, p<0.0001). Players with a previous hamstring injury, groin injury, and knee joint trauma were two to three times more likely to suffer an identical injury in the following season, whereas no such relation was found for ankle sprain. Age was not associated with an increased injury risk. Conclusions: This study confirmed previous results showing that previous injury is an important risk factor for football injury. Overall injury incidences were similar between consecutive seasons, indicating that an injury surveillance study covering one full season can provide a reasonable overview of the injury problem among elite football players in a specific environment. However, a prolonged study period is recommended for analyses of specific injury patterns. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bjsm.2006.026609 Nothing earth shattering but I thought it was interesting that ankle injuries don't seem to lead to more future injuries and that age doesn't seem to be a factor.
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Feb 19, 2022 21:30
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