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woah, you kinda nailed it
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Nov 29, 2022 08:21
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Nervous posted:So to try and be more realistic about Oregon this year, let's look at things again. Looking through your details, it's interesting to note where the Ducks lost this year and what that means:
So not quite the best-case or even the normal case, but all...understandable. And certainly promising for much of the season, not just from results from the process. I'm excited for next year, I know we won't get Good Bo Nix forever but I also have some faith in the coaching staff to find a solid replacement.
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Nov 29, 2022 14:25
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kayakyakr posted:I'm not going to give a game-by-game w/l for TTU. They're just so hard to predict this year that it's not worth it. 🎯 on the result being exactly in the middle of my range. But it was a pretty wide range. 2-2 in key games, with Iowa State mattering a lot less than I thought, but also being the game that got us to bowl eligibility so I'll take it. The answers to my questions? - The defense was much, much better under the new coaching staff starting with the defensive line rushing the passer. - Pass-heavy offense didn't do great for a lot of the season. Shough going down early in the year led to Smith and then Morton getting starts, and they both showed why they're considered young, developmental players at times. - McGuire probably influenced the offense to call a more aggressive game, going for it on 4th down 47 times, and converting a respectable 29 of them (61%). The defense swapped up from bend-don't-break and hope they turn it over to pressure, get teams in bad down/distance, and stop them. I prefer that as a defensive philosophy, even if it does give up 2-3 huge chunk plays per game. McGuire will be filling out the recruiting classes which will improve our ability to execute on that. Biggest weakness of the team? That OL. It was a mess and directly led to losses in a lot of games that we were in. NC State and KSU were both games that were effected by just a single player on the DL, while TCU and OSU were both games that pressure was given up from everyone.
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Nov 30, 2022 18:36
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harperdc posted:Looking through your details, it's interesting to note where the Ducks lost this year and what that means: We kind of hit my worst case  At least we didn't get embarrassed by Utah again  Worst case: Ducks get blasted by Georgia, drop a random game against an inferior team per Pac 12 style, and get embarrassed by Utah for the third game in a row. 9-3 but still probably with a berth in the Pac 12 championship game as the rest of the Pac 12 North looks worse than the Ducks this year. They then get embarrassed by Utah for the fourth (gently caress) game in a row, go to a decent bowl game, and get embarrassed in that as well to finish 9-5. Ducks just made too many mistakes against both Washington and Oregon State. Credit to both of those teams, they showed up in a big way in both games. I still think the Ducks were better than both of those teams from an overall talent perspective, they just had too many mistakes in both coaching and player execution in those games. Coaching wise, I'm mostly thinking of the fourth down plays where the Ducks were still on their side of the field and should be a little less aggressive. The Bo Nix injury definitely didn't help. Execution wise, there were drive killing penalties on a couple different drives against Washington that jump to mind that definitely cost the Ducks points. Oh well, bring on the Holiday Bowl or whatever! Dan Lanning, please go for it on 4th down on your own 30 with a gimpy QB slightly less.
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Nov 30, 2022 19:18
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Nervous posted:We kind of hit my worst case I don't really get the people questioning the decisions to go for it on 4th down after seeing what our punt team has done all season compared to our 4th down conversion rate. It's way more likely we screw up the punt somehow than fail to convert the 4th. The 4th down play calls could have been better and Bo made a couple of really bad reads on a few of them, but I think the decisions were probably fine, especially the ones that were essentially 2-for-1 opportunities. There were a few times I thought we should have kicked the FG though. dphi fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Nov 30, 2022 |
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Nov 30, 2022 20:08
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The ducks special teams play was pretty bad and they need to fix that imo
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Nov 30, 2022 20:24
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:The ducks special teams play was pretty bad and they need to fix that imo I was stoked when Lanning put an emphasis on it and went out and hired a supposedly good ST coach but here we are. Losing our starting punter in the summer didn't help either. At least Lewis is nails on FGs now!
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Nov 30, 2022 20:28
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dirty shrimp money posted:2022 Houston Cougars So this year was pretty much a worst case. 7-5 and tons of questions heading into the Big 12, such as - Will Dana Holgorsen get to the Big 12? Will Houston in a game in the Big 12 in 2023? How much will TCU put on Houston to welcome them to the Big 12? Is Dana going to hit the portal for a QB or stick with his redshirt freshman who hasn't played a down? How bad are the bleachers going to be when Texas visits TDECU Stadium? Does Mattress Mac flex his new booster muscles and give UH football a similar bankroll as he gave basketball? Is he gonna play nice with Tillman Fertitta? Anyone want to play defense?
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Nov 30, 2022 20:54
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dirty shrimp money posted:So this year was pretty much a worst case. 7-5 and tons of questions heading into the Big 12, such as - New coach going into the Big XII is a hard ask. I bet Holgo gets another season with the mandate of making a bowl in Big XII year 1 (noting the increased competition level)
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Nov 30, 2022 21:07
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Stanley Tucheetos posted:Well I was clearly wrong about the entire season outside the first 3 games and if Dillon Gabriel missed more than 1.5 games this team would easily be 3-9. In my defense when I made this prediction I didn't think that the #2 qb on the team would be the tight end running in wildcat with the punter a close #3. An Oklahoma poster willingly bringing up defense?
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Dec 4, 2022 14:47
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I didn't post in this thread but I was predicting an 8 win season max for TCU. Whoops!
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Dec 6, 2022 03:41
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So glad y'all brought this back to reflect on  Virginia Tech posted:Worst Outcome: 5-7/2-6 ACC - This would be bad, but it would entail beating our instate minor league games, Duke & GT and dropping games to everyone else on the schedule. I suppose it could go one worse (4-8) if Liberty could beat us in November, but I won't be that pessimistic. The margins are going to be tight on this team, and the worst case is bad, but I still don't think its truly truly dire. I could be wrong though, lots of media folks think we're basically the worst team in the ACC above only Duke. VT - wow didn't think it would get that bad, but WOOF it was very very loving bad. That said, if they close out any of their 1 pt losses this team goes bowling so they weren't as "far off" as the record sort of looks. That said, there wasn't much to be excited about moving forward (beyond D scheme which felt good?) but I'm going to reserve judgment on the staff until after next year as it appears they're going to overhaul the roster (which is needed). VT only managed 1 ACC win and we didn't play UVA (sensibly so) so I guess this year we are the worst team in the ACC. WTF. I still appreciated finally getting it together to beat Liberty, gently caress Liberty. Elko did do the coaching job of the year getting 8 wins out of that Duke roster, just amazing poo poo. Tennessee posted:Best Outcome 10-2/6-2 SEC - If Heupel wants to strap a rocket to the hype train for this team, becoming the actual 2nd best team in the East is what its going to take. The offense continues to be explosive, the defense tightens up, and the offense can control the ball when they need to. Beat everyone out of conference (taking down a ranked Pitt team with a new QB on the road would be nice) and lose only to the juggernauts. This feels like it would need a lot of injury and other luck to pull off, but given they got to 7 and were close to 8 or 9 wins last year, I think year 2 could produce a big jump. Vols - I nailed the record, just not the 2nd loss. That said I think I mostly nailed it, offense was mostly a more efficient explosive version of year 1, the defense had things it was good at until it forgot how to play USCe, and they were solidly the 2nd best team in the SEC East and arguably the 2nd or 3rd best team in the conference (CFP rankings got it wrong, I wanted the Sugar Bowl drat it). The Notorious ZSB fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Dec 6, 2022 |
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Dec 6, 2022 18:42
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