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Man Musk posted:An aside: I’ve been using ChatGPT where I may typically use a search engine. It ain’t bad if you can deal with 2022 data. Yeah I've gotten about 85% success rate getting the correct, relevant answer out of ChatGPT, with the added advantage of not having to scroll through six pages of ads to find it. I think even with that 15% failure rate it's still more efficient than using the googs
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Apr 22, 2024 04:16
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pmchem posted:way back in the very first bogleheads thread on the topic, people early and repeatedly mentioned that a high inflation period was a way this portfolio would spectacularly fail. the OP had not backtested the 1970s, and wasn't even really super interested in doing so: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=4426381#p4426381 It survived, but it was basically flat until the late 80s and took until the 2010s to overtake lurksion fucked around with this message at 05:21 on Apr 22, 2024 |
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Apr 22, 2024 05:06
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Hadlock posted:Yeah I've gotten about 85% success rate getting the correct, relevant answer out of ChatGPT, with the added advantage of not having to scroll through six pages of ads to find it. I think even with that 15% failure rate it's still more efficient than using the googs My man.
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Apr 22, 2024 05:49
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Google is hosed. I use ChatGPT more than google. Worst of all, all this AI is going to completely fill the internet with garbage. Lastly, google hired the guy who killed yahoo search to run their own search. Beyond stupid.
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Apr 22, 2024 12:15
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lurksion posted:He did eventually backtest it (or a variant) back to the 50s ah, good spotting that. yeah not so hot until the period of his original backtest, heh. well, it might shine again if inflation and fiscal deficits return to backtest period norms. in the meantime lol @ people who stayed in that ignoring inflation
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Apr 22, 2024 12:24
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lurksion posted:He did eventually backtest it (or a variant) back to the 50s Here's what I don't get: the way that the big fish who move the stock market make their decisions, as well as the frequency at which they place their bets, have changed drastically over the generations and decades. So, what value do we really get out of backtesting these ancient candlestick patterns?
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Apr 24, 2024 18:41
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lurksion posted:He did eventually backtest it (or a variant) back to the 50s Flat isn't bad it means you don't have crazy draw down if it stops working you just stop making money.
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Apr 24, 2024 19:12
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Love Stole the Day posted:Here's what I don't get: the way that the big fish who move the stock market make their decisions, as well as the frequency at which they place their bets, have changed drastically over the generations and decades. So, what value do we really get out of backtesting these ancient candlestick patterns? “Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.”
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Apr 24, 2024 19:32
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Some people seem to think that the stock markets have something to do with the overall economy and not just the decisions of the "big fish" who buy and sell stocks
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Apr 24, 2024 20:15
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https://x.com/rebrand_as_y/status/1783261791025266881?s=46 earnings season!
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Apr 25, 2024 01:05
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always a good time to repost (current price: $160) their bear case for 2027 robotaxi revenue is $200B, lol 
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Apr 25, 2024 02:55
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Hadlock posted:Yeah I've gotten about 85% success rate getting the correct, relevant answer out of ChatGPT, with the added advantage of not having to scroll through six pages of ads to find it. I think even with that 15% failure rate it's still more efficient than using the googs I apologize for everyone having to see my bad posts, after realizing what ChatGPT is capable of.  I've become so much like cocktail conversation party material on the types of regulations to opening a SEC-regulated hedge fund. At the moment, using it to further my own finance career, as well as learn about random things like nat gas tubing.
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Apr 25, 2024 05:11
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Look at that beautiful YTD chart on ATKR: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ATKR?.tsrc=fin-srch
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Apr 25, 2024 05:16
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pmchem posted:https://x.com/rebrand_as_y/status/1783261791025266881?s=46 I swore I saw news that Tesla killed the cheap EV in favor of robotaxis, which the market hated. Now, Tesla is saying cheap EVs are back on the menu boys! Also, we’re doing some robotaxis! And the market loves it. I’m also seeing Elon bootlickers saying that Reuters “lied”, they never said cheap EVs are dead and they’re focusing on robotaxis. Elon apparently said Reuters “lied” (but also some of it was true). But bootlickers are saying conveniently that the number go down parts were false.
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Apr 25, 2024 12:15
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This is not about any particular company in particular but I usually attempt to reduce my exposure to companies that have a very public executive that is high on ketamine 24/7 and has absolutely cooked their brain. They can sometimes make rash decisions and can't even think out to the end of the quarter.
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Apr 25, 2024 16:13
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AngryBooch posted:This is not about any particular company in particular but I usually attempt to reduce my exposure to companies that have a very public executive that is high on ketamine 24/7 and has absolutely cooked their brain. They can sometimes make rash decisions and can't even think out to the end of the quarter. Unfortunate that all of our sp500 index funds have at least 1% of their allocation in such companies. Probably more. edit, ehh gently caress, at least 1.4% now. Baddog fucked around with this message at 17:19 on Apr 25, 2024 |
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Apr 25, 2024 17:17
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I'm really glad I cut my losses on ARKF when I did, I consider that the price for the lesson to not touch a Cathie Wood fund
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Apr 25, 2024 19:45
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Does anyone know anything about DXC. From what I see, the company has a free cash flow yield of about 30%, meaning that anything that happens after 2027 is basically free money. However, sales have been declining (albeit at a slowing pace) since forever, so the investing community hates them (and based on some quick googling, so do their employees). Is this a falling knife worth catching?
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Apr 29, 2024 07:50
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So DXC is the IT Consultancy & Services arm of HP that got spun off, has about half of its workforce in India where it will never be competitive with the 900# Tata gorilla, and also spun off all of its public sector contracts into a third company? That sounds like a shambling zombie company to me.
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Apr 29, 2024 12:04
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Yes, well...as I said, DXC is spinning off a lot of cash flow in what appears to be a slow motion liquidation (their amortization expenses are much higher than their new capital expenditures, but that could be because HP loaded them up with an excessive amount of crappy assets in the first place). The main question is whether there will be a sudden exodus of their clients for some reason in the next few years. But I think I've been looking too hard for reasons to like this company, while a sound investment policy involves looking for reasons to hate it. So it goes on the "meh" pile.
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Apr 29, 2024 20:19
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Crankit posted:How did you guys learn about trading strategies and such, every so often I see people saying they will do a strangle straddle or some other thing and I'm not able to follow. That one episode of Saved by the Bell where Zack buys potatoes on margin, and loses the class's money and ends up with hundreds of sacks of potatoes. So I know not to do that.
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Apr 29, 2024 20:27
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Consider taking positions in MJ sector https://apnews.com/article/marijuana-biden-dea-criminal-justice-pot-f833a8dae6ceb31a8658a5d65832a3b8
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Apr 30, 2024 18:26
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Hobologist posted:But I think I've been looking too hard for reasons to like this company, while a sound investment policy involves looking for reasons to hate it. Extremely sound investing advice that huge numbers of people really need to take to heart, but they never will.
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Apr 30, 2024 18:38
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I feel like once a month SF has some article about how legal dispensaries are struggling to stay profitable against the entrenched unregulated market. The suggestion is to move it to schedule III not 4 or 5
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Apr 30, 2024 20:09
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https://elmwealth.com/crystal-ball-challenge/ kind of a fun game. my results:  I didn't spend much time per 'bet', but on a few of the pages I saw things that made me place big levered bets which turned out well. try it! don't cheat!
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Apr 30, 2024 20:14
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https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1785445834265407591 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-30/senate-passes-russian-uranium-import-ban-sending-bill-to-biden https://bellona.org/news/nuclear-issues/2024-01-us-struggles-to-free-itself-from-russian-enriched-uranium-supplies https://www.ans.org/news/article-5998/fuel-supply-chain-updates-as-us-and-allies-sever-dependency-on-russian-u/ the single remaining company able to legally refine and supply a particular grade of appropriately enriched uranium to power stations in the USA is: https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=LEU&p=w ...but the catch is that $LEU currently gets most of its profit/revenue from serving as a broker for russian uranium (!), until its new centrifuges are full speed kinda wild. I hope we build more reactors, really need to displace fossil fuels for baseline load. but we're so bad at it.
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May 1, 2024 00:36
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pmchem posted:
Can you clarify what fuel grade you're talking about GE supplies ~25 reactors (of 92 in the US) with fuel from their own plant* plus another N in Canada, X in Japan and I'm sure Y others globally *edit: uranium processing plant Hadlock fucked around with this message at 01:35 on May 1, 2024 |
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May 1, 2024 01:28
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HALEU, check the second or third links I posted... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enriched_uranium#High-assay_LEU_(HALEU)
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May 1, 2024 01:47
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there aren't any commercial reactors that use that grade DoE projects a need for ~40 tons/yr for demonstrators and experiments by the end of the decade Russia is the current supplier because it's way cheaper for them to dillute their leftover cold war stocks of 95% down to 20 than for anyone to enrich up to that level but this is a total non-issue for power generation in the US shame on an IGA fucked around with this message at 02:16 on May 1, 2024 |
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May 1, 2024 02:13
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shame on an IGA posted:there aren't any commercial reactors that use that grade Agree GE just got licenced to produce higher grade uranium in the very recent past, but it's a third party actually doing it on their property because reasons, but the new fuel line is under construction/development. Wouldn't surprise me if they were waiting for this to break ground before announcing this There's a reason why nuscale and all the other high tech small modular reactors just totally fell off the radar when Russia invaded Ukraine; they had no reliable way to fuel them with sanctions in place because they all use higher grade enriched fuel than is available domestically
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May 1, 2024 02:31
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ah good catch on HALEU not actually being used in commercial US reactors currently, I did more digging and that is 100% right
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May 1, 2024 03:09
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Hadlock posted:I feel like once a month SF has some article about how legal dispensaries are struggling to stay profitable against the entrenched unregulated market. California seriously shoots itself in the foot with this. It's significantly cheaper to go back to an illegal dealer than it is to pay for legal weed in most of the state, so of course the legit places are having trouble staying profitable. On top of that, they have to pay insane rents while still having the drawbacks of almost no payment processor working with them (or charging exorbitant fees), and the associated security / handling fees associated with churning enormous amounts of cash. State: 15% excise $2.75 per ounce leaves $9.25 per ounce flowers $1.29 per ounce fresh plants (??) 9.25% sales tax County: Variable, with some doing percentages, some doing $X per square foot of cultivation space, some doing both. But typically this is on top of state. City: Highly variable. Oakland does 5% medical / 10% recreational, my town does 15% straight up, SF has anywhere from 1-5% depending on size of biz + medical vs recreational. Meanwhile, there's a guy who sits around on a park bench across the street from my place who (at least advertises that he) will sell you anything you're looking for.
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May 1, 2024 05:02
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pmchem posted:ah good catch on HALEU not actually being used in commercial US reactors currently, I did more digging and that is 100% right The bull case for HALEU is that to meet net zero emissions there’s going to need to be a bunch of small modular reactors, and most of those designs require HALEU. A few weeks ago the Money of Mine podcast had a really interesting interview with a uranium analyst who went through all that stuff and a bunch of other issues affecting the industry.
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May 1, 2024 05:17
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This popped up in my feed earlier today https://www.sfgate.com/cannabis/article/medmen-bankruptcy-19429105.php Headline "California's 'Apple Store of weed' declares bankruptcy with $410M in debt" article posted:National media outlets like Esquire and Vanity Fair profiled the company, and it listed itself on a Canadian Securities Exchange in 2018. I dunno what weed costs these days but last I checked a weekend worth of gummies was like $20-30 at retail which seemed... Reasonable? Looks like a pre rolled joint is $10. I'm not a weed expert https://sweetflower.com/product/west-coast-cure-indica-wcc-og-pre-roll-1g One of the big problems with weed stores, at least in SF, was getting one permitted was roughly equivalent to getting a new strip club permitted, and also too many "dispensaries" would dilute the profits per store Having to walk across the street to get your schwag seems a lot more convenient than having to drive two cities over
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May 1, 2024 05:17
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setting aside the fundamentals of selling weed, medmen ipo's in 2018, opening up flagship stores in expensive locations. stock has huge pop in 2018, the company starts expanding to dozens of locations, not just leasing but buying, unsuccessfully tries to buy its biggest competitor. this requires intense capitalization with hundreds of millions in loans taken out in 2019. the weed mini-bubble pops, and suddenly the company is way over levered. spends 33% of its entire lifetime as a public company selling off assets to try to figure out a way to service debt this is a familiar story of expanding too quickly and misjudging the value of being a first mover, has nothing to do with the actual mechanics of selling weed
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May 1, 2024 08:34
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Yeah first/biggest mover effect (Myspace) has it's own mini universe of rules and consequences etc no argument there I've not heard of the Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook) of Weed buying up entire blocks of cities to ensure their family's safety XYZ or naming hospitals after their wife or whatever Maybe the industry is healthy, but there's a steady stream of failed/failing businesses, and a distinct lack of marc benioff types being regularly successful We're far enough along this journey that some positive trend or pattern should have emerged. As was pointed out the barrier to entry for this market is finding an available park bench, with the added benefit of an all cash, completely unregulated market, vs trying to do it the right way and being taxed and regulated to the moon and back, in one of the least business friendly markets* *not going to attempt to qualify that last statement
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May 1, 2024 08:45
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