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Well that escalated quickly... Can't say the outlook for my career--copywriting--is great. I'd take bets that within the next decade I'll just be editing lovely AI copy for 8 hours. And now that the cat is out the bag, I don't see this pre-mentat tech slowing down. Let's talk about pivots. What career path do ya'll think will survive this disruptive wave? Any white collar jobs you see as the next tech-bro?
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May 18, 2023 04:55
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take a course on ChatGPT yourself. There is an incredible gap between the output of "some random manager somewhere telling ChatGPT to write some fluff text" and employing things like One/Multi-shot prompting, output templates, cues, hints, context, ask-before-answer prompting, perspective prompting, emotional prompting, ladder prompting. With the right knowledge of ChatGPT you could be the guy that replaces you! ChatGPT is coming, and the government sockpuppets of our capitalist dictatorship are under no pressure to save the working class from it, so the best thing you can do for yourself is to beat them to the punch.
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May 18, 2023 20:41
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Lib and let die posted:take a course on ChatGPT yourself. There is not in fact an incredible gap but the smart thing to do is pretend there is and you're not just a copy-writer but a ChatGPT whisper.
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May 18, 2023 21:26
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Gumball Gumption posted:There is not in fact an incredible gap but the smart thing to do is pretend there is and you're not just a copy-writer but a ChatGPT whisper. Yeah I guess in fairness I've used it a lot more as a coding assistant than I have for any real natural language stuff, but after learning a bit about how to more better prompt it I've been able to get the code I want out of it with fewer regenerations/additional prompts
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May 18, 2023 22:38
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Lib and let die posted:take a course on ChatGPT yourself. The big problem with this line of thinking is that you don't have a long history of specialized education or experience in ChatGPT prompting. There's plenty of fresh-out-of-college kids who have just as much training and experience in using ChatGPT as you do. When managers are looking for ChatGPT operators, they're not going to want existing mid-to-senior-level employees with all the skills and experience (and salary expectations) that ChatGPT is meant to trivialize. They're going to replace your whole team with an intern who spent their summer break tinkering with prompts for fun. For a while, they might keep one or two senior employees around to check the AI's output and advise the intern, but the end goal of all this is going to be to render your existing skills and experience totally obsolete. It seems like you get that, but the consequences run deeper than you seem to think. ChatGPT3 has only been out for a few months, which means that few people have more than a few months' experience making prompts for it. This creates a level playing field - a high schooler who thought "ChatGPT is the future" and has been studying prompting since the day it came out will have just as much experience as a senior engineer who thought "ChatGPT is the future" and has been studying prompting since the day it came out. Except that the senior engineer also has twenty years of engineering experience and is used to high salaries, while the high schooler has no particular specialized skills besides prompt-writing and will be thrilled to be brought on as an intern for entry-level wages. For a while, the existing employees' product knowledge and specialized skills/experience may allow a few of them to move into "ChatGPT operator" roles while the technology is still new, although employers will probably try to weasel a pay cut out of it. But in the long run, if ChatGPT makes your existing skills and experience completely unnecessary, taking a couple of ChatGPT courses isn't necessarily going to put you on a competitive playing field against an obedient fresh college grad with low salary expectations who took a ChatGPT course in college.
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May 19, 2023 01:23
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Main Paineframe posted:The big problem with this line of thinking is that you don't have a long history of specialized education or experience in ChatGPT prompting. There's plenty of fresh-out-of-college kids who have just as much training and experience in using ChatGPT as you do. When managers are looking for ChatGPT operators, they're not going to want existing mid-to-senior-level employees with all the skills and experience (and salary expectations) that ChatGPT is meant to trivialize. They're going to replace your whole team with an intern who spent their summer break tinkering with prompts for fun. For a while, they might keep one or two senior employees around to check the AI's output and advise the intern, but the end goal of all this is going to be to render your existing skills and experience totally obsolete. It seems like you get that, but the consequences run deeper than you seem to think. I mean, in my specific scenario that'd be in breach of our CBA and CWA would put its massive war chest behind a lawsuit because we have specific language against the use of ChatGPT "or other AI-based solutions" to eliminate roles in our CBA. So I guess the answer, as it always is is: Unionize! eta: yes, I realize the irony in my stated solution being about as comprehensive as the directive to "just vote!"  At least Union elections matter in the immediacy though! Lib and let die fucked around with this message at 15:27 on May 19, 2023 |
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May 19, 2023 03:54
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ChatGPT might kill a lot of copy writing jobs now, but they'll come back once the buzz and inflated expectations wears down.
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May 19, 2023 17:40
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I think difficult to mechanize skilled labor like nursing will have a solid future for a while.
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May 19, 2023 20:33
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If you think you have it rough, think about the lovely entry level folks who need to compete with ChatGPT to do the easy stuff.
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May 19, 2023 21:13
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I think it'll probably go similarly to any other case of a power loom displacing a thousand weavers, the workers necessary to keep the new thing running will implement the same strategies as the previous group of industrial laborers. The biggest differences will be where in the world that happens. https://twitter.com/pesa_africa/status/1659463936813457408
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May 19, 2023 22:14
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BLDuck posted:Well that escalated quickly... Your big danger is the people hiring you thinking that ChatGPT can replace you. It's far better at making things "look" right than actual technical content being accurate. IE it makes very good looking legal documents until you show them to a lawyer.
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May 27, 2023 01:23
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cat botherer posted:ChatGPT might kill a lot of copy writing jobs now, but they'll come back once the buzz and inflated expectations wears down. I think this is closer to the truth. Clickbait "news" threatened real news but didn't totally kill it and it doesn't replace actually good journalism. Made-by-committee cinema like the MCU generates massive amounts of money and is hugely popular but it hasn't murdered actual visionary cinema. Both of these things that were driven by mediocrity and formula were supposed to have become dominant but didn't. ChatGPT by design is mediocrity and mimicry, something people will certainly eat up but there will still exist a market for people who rise above that in whatever they do.
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Jun 1, 2023 20:37
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InfiniteZero posted:I think this is closer to the truth. Clickbait "news" threatened real news but didn't totally kill it and it doesn't replace actually good journalism. Made-by-committee cinema like the MCU generates massive amounts of money and is hugely popular but it hasn't murdered actual visionary cinema. Both of these things that were driven by mediocrity and formula were supposed to have become dominant but didn't. Made by commitee cinema has not directly killed art films, but it mostly pushed them out of the major studios with few exceptions. That's where A24 is making it's money now, and it doesn't do the big blockbusters.
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Jun 1, 2023 21:58
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InfiniteZero posted:I think this is closer to the truth. Clickbait "news" threatened real news but didn't totally kill it and it doesn't replace actually good journalism. Made-by-committee cinema like the MCU generates massive amounts of money and is hugely popular but it hasn't murdered actual visionary cinema. Both of these things that were driven by mediocrity and formula were supposed to have become dominant but didn't. Um, it's dying down now but surely the MCU and its spiritual brethren did become dominant, even if it did not in fact fully kill other forms of cinema?
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Jun 1, 2023 22:13
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"That asteroid didn't kill off the dinosaurs, just 99% of them! Look, we've still got birds!"
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Jun 1, 2023 22:34
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Jaxyon posted:Your big danger is the people hiring you thinking that ChatGPT can replace you. It's far better at making things "look" right than actual technical content being accurate. Exactly this. While I won't say that there isn't any value in the AI ethics conversations that have been going around--because it's absolutely something that should be debated and established--I also think that the nature of that discourse has led to people grossly overestimating what the technology is actually capable of right now. Hell, even the fact that it gets referred to as AI is almost a misnomer, because it brings up all these sci-fi associations that are absolutely not within the realm of reality, and so you get people insisting that chatbots are sentient. There's also a lot of people pushing that misunderstanding. I get exposed to more CNBC in the course of my job than I would really like, and there's a constant stream of chyrons and people talking about how AI is going to revolutionize so-and-so industry, and it's the exact same kind of language as when NFTs and blockchain were getting pushed. And they're incentivized to do this, because that's capitalism. But when credulous people go all-in on AI like this, it results in layoffs because they're management. And then it won't work, because the technology isn't there, it's just good at looking like it's there.
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Jun 2, 2023 15:36
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Main Paineframe posted:The big problem with this line of thinking is that you don't have a long history of specialized education or experience in ChatGPT prompting. There's plenty of fresh-out-of-college kids who have just as much training and experience in using ChatGPT as you do. When managers are looking for ChatGPT operators, they're not going to want existing mid-to-senior-level employees with all the skills and experience (and salary expectations) that ChatGPT is meant to trivialize. They're going to replace your whole team with an intern who spent their summer break tinkering with prompts for fun. For a while, they might keep one or two senior employees around to check the AI's output and advise the intern, but the end goal of all this is going to be to render your existing skills and experience totally obsolete. It seems like you get that, but the consequences run deeper than you seem to think. I feel like the cloud vs onsite infrastructure debate in IT is very relevant to what's coming in AI. Some of the things that held back a lot of cloud migrations in IT were:
So you can see how the "empire building" nature of careers built on skills that can be replaced by new technology ultimately hurt workers - because the opportunity to gain skills is counteracted by senior level workers who are actively fighting an inevitable embrace of emerging tech. There are always an army of recent university/tech school graduates boasting the latest certifications for corporations to chew through, but they can also undercut the justification to migrate to emerging tech because inexperienced workers may not be ready to handle the inevitable (and frequent) set backs and failures that happen in technology because that's just the nature of the beast. Experienced workers (especially at SMBs) with skills based on older tech have the experience to navigate corporate politics and, ultimately, will control what companies choose because companies are more likely to stick to what works than embrace change. All this is to say that AI is the future, and people who are still early or-mid career in jobs threatened by AI would do best to keep tabs on what AI can do for them. This is the lesson I see in the contentious migration to cloud computing. The first AI-enabled jobs will pay a lot better than the same jobs that come around later and most companies (especially SMBs) are a lot more likely to promote internally than taking risks on new employees to serve as lead or management roles. TL;DR - cloud computing is finally eating up the last of the "old guard" IT engineers about 10-13 years after corporate America started embracing cloud computing. The same thing will happen in AI related jobs- the transition will start slow but will accelerate to the point where it's ingrained in everything and you'd do best understand how it can enhance your job if your career is at all threatened by it. tadashi fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Jun 2, 2023 |
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Jun 2, 2023 15:39
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Cloud computing is more expensive than it promised and puts a lot of control in the hands of your cloud vendor. I'm not sure how much of an industry trend it is, but my workplace just migrated away from AWS to a physically accessible colo running VMs on hardware we own because of that. We still use cloud for backup, but the compute side doesn't always have the benefits that the big cloud vendors claim. Especially if you have a lot of legacy software and too few engineers to rewrite all of it. AI is probably going to be like this too, just like outsourcing. People will try to use it in problem domains it doesn't work in and make those IT cogs that you're complaining about look right to be skeptical of the tech
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Jun 3, 2023 05:36
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BLDuck posted:Well that escalated quickly... Anything where you have to dynamically manipulate small objects in 3D space will be good for a while. I mean plugging in cables behind a PC moreso than arms on an assembly line. As an example I don't see AI getting good at walking around a business park unpacking, connecting, and installing printers any time soon. OSs could get significantly better at the installation and drivers side of things, but that's not the way things are moving now. And your current generation of employees is surprisingly no better with computers in the workplace than boomers, so you can't expect them to do all that themselves. It's hard to picture AI doing any kind of troubleshooting itself much better than the terrible built-in Windows Troubleshooters. That's the lowest level of support. I could see AI doing a little bit of system administration like generating a LAMP stack with a few parameters, but for the most part you'll want humans for that. System and network administration need you to understand the organization you work for, so that when poo poo breaks you can fix it. For anything I can imagine AI setting up, I can't imagine it doing support or maintenance. Maybe like we now see with programmers, AI will enhance the job but not outright replace it unless a boss is torpedoing the company through idiocy or maliciousness. Getting Adobe or AutoDesk software working with your MDM, dealing with licensing issues, and communicating to the user that no, this expensive PC without a graphics card will not run the AutoCAD you bought, isn't something an angry boss with an AI can accomplish like an angry boss with a computer janitor can. So I think computer touchers are pretty safe for now. I'm curious what AI in Project Management could be like. Probably either fantastic or poo poo compared to your current PMs.
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Jul 2, 2023 17:35
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Childcare would be a great AI proof field to get into.
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Jul 2, 2023 23:54
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madattheinternet posted:Childcare would be a great AI proof field to get into. Until the Nannybots are released.
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Jul 3, 2023 23:52
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Clarste posted:"That asteroid didn't kill off the dinosaurs, just 99% of them! Look, we've still got birds!" It may not have killed them but it sure shook things up a bit. Dinosaur unemployment was at an all time high and then those dirty mammals showed up and the writing was on the wall!
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Jul 4, 2023 01:14
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what will you do now that you are free from the shackles of wage labor?
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Nov 9, 2023 00:20
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edit: ignore: OP is almost certainly dead;
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Nov 9, 2023 00:21
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