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In 2020, Chris Jones signed his second contract for four years, $80 million dollars. He is now entering the final year of this contract with a base salary of $19,500,000 as well as some additional bonus money due. Or he would be, had he reported to training camp or the team this year. Since the Superbowl victory, it's been reported over and and over that Jones camp and the Chiefs had been in constant contact and negotiations about an extension, essentially for him to ride out his career with the Chiefs as the anchor point for their defensive line. WHO ARE THE PLAYERS Chris Jones Jones has an impressive resume and has been a bright spot on some otherwise disastrous defenses for the Chiefs. He was drafted in the second round as KC traded back from 28th to 37th in an exchange of picks with San Francisco that resulted in San Fran whiffing on yet another first round trade-up (something they've been doing more of lately.) Since that time, he's won the Superbowl twice, gotten three second-team All-Pro nods, one first team All-Pro, and holds the NFL record for most games in a row with a sack. The Chiefs wasted a good part of his year in the 21-22 season by trying to shift him from the interior defensive line to the edge, resulting in the fewest tackles of his career. In 22-23, he was a huge part of decimating the Bengals O-Line in the AFC Championship (the Bengals refer to this as '[their] superbowl') and then was relegated to doing his job well enough to not really be mentioned in the Superbowl for good or bad. He's the anti-Frank Clark, in that his regular season play is huge, and his playoff sack numbers are... not. That said, sacks aren't exactly what he's there for, and what he's there for he does very, very well. Chiefs The Chiefs. You know them. You either hate them now or hated how much they hurt you while you were growing up. They're working on building a dynasty, and somehow lucked into hiring a GM who was not Ryan Grigson once they fired John Dorsey. We were all upset at the time, but can now point to that to show how little we all really know about the inner machinations of building a football franchise. Brett Veach is apparently the guy who pounded the table and demanded we draft Mahomes, and for his troubles they gave him the keys to the franchise. As a treat, he's pulled together a team that's made the last 5 AFC Championships, and played in 3 Superbowls in that time. They're slightly more likeable that the 20 years of Pats supremacy we got, but we're all pretty tired of the tomahawk chop, the "what do you mean, the name honors the mayor of KC, no pay no attention to the war drum we beat with a feathered drum stick on a weekly basis," and just generally how lovely the fans of this team can be. Yeah yeah, some of us are great, but once you get to the fans who live more than 20 minutes from the stadium you sure do find a whole lot of "shut up and play football" and "in MY job I get paid a shiny nickel every week and I work HARDER than any of these BOYS" and those people are very, very loud, as stupid people generally are. The Chiefs find themselves in an odd situation. They have arguable the best Quarterback and Tight End to every play the game (certainly the best playing now) who both are on very reasonable contracts. Mahomes even mentioned specifically leaving money on the table to pay his teammates. While some journalist like to publish quarterly articles about how Mahomes will be the highest paid QB in the league again soon, that's yet to come to fruition, and Mahomes seems pretty happy to rest on his $500 million contract while collecting sponsorship revenue from anyone willing to write a large enough check. Still, because of some dead money (Frank Clark) and some... odd decisions at WR (MVS, who showed up in the AFC Championship, so let the man rest), the Chiefs are currently shown at about $8 million over the cap this year. A figure we all assumed would drop dramatically once Chris Jones signed that extension that Veach was confident would be worked out any day now for the last 6 months. The Katz Brothers Jones' agent(s). A former Drew Rosenhaus acolyte. You may have heard of him from representing other big names like... 2022 TY Hilton? Essentially no one. Jones is their biggest name client, with largest possible salary demands, and by God, we are going to sit on this ride and figure out exactly how smart or stupid (most likely stupid, but we'll get into that) the Katz brothers truly are.  You can tell it's a professional outfit by the fact that they have negotiated 6 contracts, and that their registered domain redirects to an instagram. If you're looking for a villain in this story, you're unlikely to find someone who is 100% to blame, but this sure does look like someone way out of their league. WHERE WE STAND Jones didn't report to camp, and on July 21 his fines started accumulating. Unlike Nick Bosa, who is on his rookie deal, and thanks to the strong bargaining of DeMaurice Smith, Jones' fines cannot be waived by the team, nor will they grant salary cap relief. Since then, unlike most players who hold out, Jones has been fairly active on twitter, replying to random fans, liking odd things, and generally trolling in a way that, even as a fan of this team, I can only describe as incredibly entertaining. A few tweets here: https://twitter.com/StoneColdJones/status/1694045203756106184?s=20 https://twitter.com/StoneColdJones/status/1694051219382182084?s=20 Let's take a look at some of the things he's "liking":  He's also liked some stuff about being a Raider, blah blah blah. It's not that bad, but believe it or not, it's got a large portion of the fanbase foaming at the mouth. You can look for that stuff on twitter. I wouldn't. It's not going to make you like humanity more. Since not reporting, Jones has been hit with more than $2M in fines (which again, don't impact the cap, and as such, the Chiefs aren't going to be just giving that money back with any new contract,) as well as missing ou on a $500k workout bonus. He's currently at $2.7M in lost money. I don't THINK he got dinged for missing any preseason games, but the real fun stuff is about to start once he misses week 1 against the Lions. Once the roster was finalized, Jones was placed on Reserve/Did Not Report, and as such, only his prorated bonus is currently counting against the cap as "dead money." It's prorated bonus money, as well as the bonus he earned for his sack production last year, totaling just over $8M. His base salary of $19.5M is off the books for now, and a prorated portion will come back once he reports and the roster exemption the Chiefs get for him expires. When he reports, the Chiefs have two weeks to add him to the active roster while allowing him to practice. He'll miss those game checks as well. Each week he misses costs him about a million bucks, and reduces his salary cap number by that same amount. Here's the kicker, Jones value prior to this holdout against the salary cap was $28.2M. That number is what the franchise tag would be calculated against. Would be. If he truly holds out until Week 8, then he's lost out on about $8.6M in salary, which reduces his cap hit even further. Remember that number. WHAT ARE THE OFFERS There have been a couple different numbers presented, but they generally seem to tie back the same way. Florio at PFT seems to have posted the view from the Katz brothers, and Nick Wright seems to have gotten the numbers from the Chiefs. Yes, there's some inference on my part, but bear with me here, as I don't think it really matters. The offer on the table seems to be an extension (that is, adding to the current year that Jones is under contract) of two years. Jones is going to be on the wrong side of 30, and Veach has a lot of talent to lock up next year, so you begin to understand some reticence to push Jones into his age 32 season being paid as a blue-chip player on the D-Line. The broad strokes are that Jones is being offered an extension of 2 years, valued at $27M each of those two years. Jones would like 2 years, valued at $32M each of those years. The 2 year view, which is what the Chiefs are looking at, is saying that "you're playing the final year of your deal, we aren't ripping that up, but we'll extend you. If we extend you, then your new contract has you at an AAV of $32M, higher than Aaron Donald, and you sir are no Aaron Donald. $27M seems nice." The 3 year view, which is what Jones camp is proposing, says "I would like you to void the current final year of my deal, and pay me $84M over the next 3 seasons. That equates to roughly $28M/yr, below Aaron Donald money, and I'm worth that." Either view can be summarized like so "you're earning $84M over the next three years (Jones's ask)" or "you're earning $74M over the next three years (Chiefs' offer") It's hard to say who is right with how they look at this. That's a ton of money to pay a non-QB, especially one whose impact on the defense can be overlooked at times. ESPECIALLY, when you need to be looking at paying Trey Smith, Creed Humphrey, L'Jarius Sneed, Nick Bolton, and Justin Reid in the coming years. WHERE IS THE LEVERAGE For both sides, the remaining leverage rests largely on the production of the team during Jones's holdout. It's a large bet on his part, given that this team has never really been a defensive powerhouse, and they have an offense capable of dropping 50 points if needed. For Jones, he's looking at a loss of $2.7M in fines and bonuses, and a loss in salary of $8.6M as noted above. Total impact on actual money in his pocket: $11M+ Total impact to his salary cap number: Roughly $9M. Why is that important? For a few reasons. One, if he reports after week 8, the Chiefs would theoritically have to do absolutely nothing to remain below the cap, as their expected cap space with his entire salary on the books is shown to be about $8M over. Two, and this is important to all parties involved, his franchise tag value plummets. Had he reported, and all else remained the same, his second tag would've cost 120% of his previous year salary cap hit, roughly $32M (Some reports say $34M, you can never really tell with these things as there's all sorts of unreported crap in any contract. Get over it, we're ballparking.) That's a big number, and it's one that he likely hung his original negotiation shingle on. Franchise tag number if he continues his holdout? Hard to say exactly, but closer to $24M - Impact of sitting out (defense production, lost money) So not only is there the potential for him to lose $11M in cash this year, but this could also be costing him $8-10M on the franchise next year if no deal is reached. The Chiefs organization really holds most of the leverage, assuming Jones isn't ready to just retire. As noted above, the holdout only benefits them from a financial perspective, and Jones will likely feel the impact of any deal he makes barely covering the losses he incurred this season as a best case scenario. Worst case, Chiefs can tag and trade to someone willing to back up a Brinks truck to Jones' door and probably get a 1st and a few other picks for him. From a play standpoint, with Jones being out, the Chiefs have to hope that their defense can hold teams below the threshold of points that Mahomes and company can score. In the meantime, if the Chiefs can continue to win and not drop games that impact playoff seeding, his absence only really helps with the cap issues they're having. Am I underselling what his absence looks like? Maybe. Do I also remember him getting a roughing the passer call and costing the Chiefs a game they absolutely should've won so he could talk a little poo poo to Matt Ryan? I do. When it became evident that Jones wouldn't report, Vegas shifted their line from Chiefs -6.5 to Chiefs -6.5. POSSIBLE SCENARIOS The most likely possible scenarios are as follows: Reports Today without new contract - I don't think this is happening. Jones is dug in, and despite how bad of advice I think he's getting from his agents, it seems he's going to realize or agree with my assessment. Reports today with new contract - All is well, we've met in the middle, and everyone is happy, right? Eh, depends on the contract. I don't see Veach caving, especially with the free agents he has on the horizon. As a simple cost/benefit analysis would show, having Jones playing for half of a contract season and then flipping a discounted Jones on a franchise tag to another franchise may be where he sees the most value. Sits out one week - This feels fairly likely, but only if the Chiefs can hold the Lions to less than 27 points or so. If not, he may continue to bet that his absence will be missed enough to extract some additional value. Sits out multiple weeks - See above. At some point he's reporting with or without a new contract. Sits out until Week 8 - Again, this is entirely dependent on the team performance without Jones there. If they manage to win 7 of their 8 games and the defense doesn't look atrocious, I think everyone and their brother will think the organization made the right decision and Jones made the wrong one. Especially since the remainder of the year will be contract year play from Jones, and as Terez Paylor famously always reminded us, the contract year is undefeated. For now we wait and see what happens on Thursday night, and how Jones reacts. I'd bet that regardless of what happens, the Katz brothers never represent another football player making any real contract demands as it seems they've bungled this from the jump.
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Sep 5, 2023 16:47
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I'm cool with the Cowboys overpaying for him.
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Sep 5, 2023 19:10
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Thanks for the informative post. I for one hope Jones gets the money he deserves, even if he has to hold out until week 9 to get it.
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Sep 6, 2023 05:56
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I hope he holds out to week 16 or whenever.
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Sep 6, 2023 05:57
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Sep 6, 2023 11:15
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that's hime Him Cavauro fucked around with this message at 11:20 on Sep 6, 2023 |
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Sep 6, 2023 11:17
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Nothing to add to a phenomenal post. Thanks.
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Sep 6, 2023 15:27
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Let's talk about Chandler Jones.
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Sep 6, 2023 16:36
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good luck to Chris Jones I hope the chiefs have a meltdown equivalent to the fail mary where the next morning they open up the checkbook
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Sep 6, 2023 17:28
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https://twitter.com/aaronladdtv/status/1699461425549164655?s=46&t=BSzhFErQ6N9N1FAHwRiTEg
No Butt Stuff fucked around with this message at 19:39 on Sep 6, 2023 |
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Sep 6, 2023 17:38
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https://twitter.com/HaroldRKuntz3/status/1699461974772330846?s=20
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Sep 6, 2023 19:38
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No Butt Stuff posted:https://twitter.com/aaronladdtv/status/1699461425549164655?s=46&t=BSzhFErQ6N9N1FAHwRiTEg quote:In 2020, Chris Jones signed his second contract for four years,
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Sep 6, 2023 20:07
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Clearly they needed to push for a bigger contract so they could afford shirts in their size
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Sep 6, 2023 20:40
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I bet they drove that subaru
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Sep 6, 2023 20:49
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it matches their shirts. Class
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Sep 6, 2023 20:56
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Nick Bosa just signed a mega-extension, so have fun with that Chris Jones negotiation Chiefs.
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Sep 6, 2023 21:14
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I don’t think the extension for the best edge rusher in the league who is 5 years younger is going to impact the Chiefs position a lot.
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Sep 6, 2023 21:16
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We should all take a moment to appreciate OP’s amazing effort post. We have collected here something like a thousand words dedicated to a single purpose: the career and contract negotiations of one player who — while quite important in his contributions to the Super Bowl campaign — is not even a QB. no need to actually read it though, woof
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Sep 6, 2023 23:33
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No Butt Stuff posted:I don’t think the extension for the best edge rusher in the league who is 5 years younger is going to impact the Chiefs position a lot. Narrator: it did
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Sep 6, 2023 23:43
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rjmccall posted:no need to actually read it though, woof I read it and it's a very good post, so sounds like you're the one missing out.
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Sep 7, 2023 06:14
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I too liked the post
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Sep 8, 2023 02:12
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https://twitter.com/BostonConnr/status/1699941525033988257?t=WY-BDK3hU4kOjblEcowFBg&s=19
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Sep 8, 2023 04:45
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when chris jones ran the 40' at the combine, his weiner was so huge that it split his shorts open and flopped out on live tv
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Sep 8, 2023 22:32
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it was really weird that his agents were flanking him throughout everything the last two days.
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Sep 8, 2023 22:32
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https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1701341531544658338?s=46&t=BSzhFErQ6N9N1FAHwRiTEg We will see the numbers but it seems like he blinked and went for the PR win. Or maybe he got a lot of money. Or maybe there’s a fair deal. The goombas must be fired soon.
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Sep 12, 2023 00:54
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