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budgieinspector
Mar 24, 2006

According to my research,
these would appear to be
Budgerigars.

Strict 9 posted:

On another note, interesting report from PMI Group released today (here) that also shows home prices to continue falling through 2011.

SlapActionJackson posted:

If a few years is less than 5, I would not worry about needing to buy right now. The CA real estate market has a long way to go before this crisis is over:


gently caress. I was ten pages into this before the DON'T BUY IN CALIFORNIA NOW warnings started popping up. Is there any way this info could be added to the OP? (Or did I miss it?)

My question, I guess, is this: I've been researching and gearing up to start the search for a home in the San Fernando Valley (LA Metro area); have there been any estimates from reliable sources about how much more the housing prices might fall?

My main issue right now is that my current budget gets me out of the ghetto, but not into a neighborhood I really want to put roots down in. Housing prices have dropped enough in the past two years enough that a house that would've sold for $600K in 2007 currently meets my $300K budget; is it reasonable to expect that places currently valued at $500K might get down to that level in the next couple of years? The PMI Report states that the area will definitely see further drops in price, but I'm wondering if it'll be enough to be worth the wait.

If waiting a couple years means that I can afford a house in Sherman Oaks, Studio City, Encino, Burbank, or Glendale, then I'd be happy to hang out. But if it means that a decent place in North Hollywood will just run about $10K less, then the waiting really wouldn't be worth it to me.

Any local goons have any input?

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moana
Jun 18, 2005

one of the more intellectual satire communities on the web

budgieinspector posted:

gently caress. I was ten pages into this before the DON'T BUY IN CALIFORNIA NOW warnings started popping up. Is there any way this info could be added to the OP? (Or did I miss it?)
Well, I have this:

Is now a good time to buy?

swenblack posted:


In most major markets, the answer is still 'no.' :words:
I can add the graphs and whatever to the OP but to be honest, I'm against trying to time the market and I don't want anyone to be making their decision about buying a house in Sacramento based on some charts for all of California. Every market is different and even declining markets will likely have some deals to be found right now.

We just bought a house (in California! oh no!) and the driving factor was quality of life. Our budget was $500k, but we bought a house for $360k because it was nice and in a good neighborhood. If you find an affordable house in a place you can "put down roots" in, you buy it. If not, you wait until you do find one. To me, it was as simple as that - if you're buying for the long term, who cares what happens in the next few years? As long as you can be happy with the place you pick and not agonize over "oh, if we had waited, look what we could have bought!", you're okay to buy. If you don't really like the neighborhood you buy in, it doesn't matter if prices start to rise again - you'll still be unhappy in the neighborhood.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

moana posted:

We just bought a house (in California! oh no!) and the driving factor was quality of life. Our budget was $500k, but we bought a house for $360k because it was nice and in a good neighborhood. If you find an affordable house in a place you can "put down roots" in, you buy it. If not, you wait until you do find one. To me, it was as simple as that - if you're buying for the long term, who cares what happens in the next few years? As long as you can be happy with the place you pick and not agonize over "oh, if we had waited, look what we could have bought!", you're okay to buy. If you don't really like the neighborhood you buy in, it doesn't matter if prices start to rise again - you'll still be unhappy in the neighborhood.

This is really good advice.

I'll add to it that all of the predictions about what the market will do for the next year, or two, or five, or whatever, are exactly that: predictions. They rely on technical data, trends, historical patterns, and all manner of rationalizing, hand-waving, and bias-confirming argumentation.

Ultimately, as with stocks, or politics, or economics, or any other extremely complex, huge, and imperfectly-understood system, there can be no certainty, and for every expert opinion you can find at least one expert who argues the opposite.

This means that if your chief reason for timing your buy is trying to time the market, you are taking a substantial risk of being burned. Buy too early and you watch your house's value decline, and miss out on getting a better house for the same money. Wait too long, and you miss the bottom and maybe get priced out of the house you want, or the neighborhood you want, or the financing you want.

So don't try to time the market. Unless you're an investor, you've diversified substantially, and you're trying to put like 10 or 20% of your total portfolio into real estate, in which case, sure, go ahead and treat housebuying like a day-trader treats stocks. But that's not where most of us are.

Buying a house is usually not all that great of an investment, even when the market is stable and rising, compared to other investment opportunities. What it ought to be about is your quality of life, long-term plans, that kind of thing. If you make those your priority, then it won't matter whether your house's value rises or falls next year; you'll be making payments you can afford on a house that you like, enjoying an improved quality of life, and ignoring the crazy world of real-estate investing entirely, because it's irrelevant to your lifestyle and happiness.

budgieinspector
Mar 24, 2006

According to my research,
these would appear to be
Budgerigars.

moana posted:

I can add the graphs and whatever to the OP but to be honest, I'm against trying to time the market and I don't want anyone to be making their decision about buying a house in Sacramento based on some charts for all of California. Every market is different and even declining markets will likely have some deals to be found right now.

I see what you're saying. Although I think that the PMI report does a pretty good job of breaking things down by area, and it isn't solely for California. *shrug*

My driving factor right now is that I'm tired of renting, and I'd like to settle down. I'm single, no kids, and while I'd like to rectify that at some point in the not-too-distant future, I'm not currently under pressure to move out of my apartment due to space or school zoning issues. By that same token, if I do move out, I'd like to keep those issues in mind.

I'm not trying to time the market, per se; it's just that the neighborhoods I'd really like to live in are currently a couple hundred thou over my budget. If there's a significant likelihood that homes in these areas will drop into my price range over the next couple of years, I'd prefer to wait. If not, then I might as well get down to searching for what I can currently afford.

I see it like this:

If a decent house in an okay part of town (with kinda-sucky schools) is available for $300K right now, and a decent house in a much better part of town (with pretty drat good schools) will likely be available in two years for the same price due to a much-needed market correction... hell yeah, I'll wait.

But if that decent house in a good neighborhood is likely to remain way out of my reach (barring a significant and unlikely increase in my income), then I'd be better off just moving forward with what's out there right now.

moana
Jun 18, 2005

one of the more intellectual satire communities on the web

budgieinspector posted:

If a decent house in an okay part of town (with kinda-sucky schools) is available for $300K right now, and a decent house in a much better part of town (with pretty drat good schools) will likely be available in two years for the same price due to a much-needed market correction... hell yeah, I'll wait.

But if that decent house in a good neighborhood is likely to remain way out of my reach (barring a significant and unlikely increase in my income), then I'd be better off just moving forward with what's out there right now.
I understand what you're saying, and that's a tough spot to be in. You said you hadn't started house searching - why not start now? You may be surprised that you can afford something in a better neighborhood than you think. Also, it'll help you gauge how the market is looking in your area; I was looking at houses online for a year or so before we actually started our serious search to get a better picture of what we might be able to afford.

The significant increase in your income will happen when you get that other person with whom you will be cosigning and making babies. I understand the desire to settle down, but it's entirely likely that you'll be able to afford a better place easily with two incomes. Another option is to find a really run down place in a nicer neighborhood and spend the next few years fixing it up OR find a super small house with a decent backyard and plan on expanding once you do get that family. I don't really know if either of those options are feasible where you are though.

Ornamented Death
Jan 25, 2006

Pew pew!

SlapActionJackson posted:

I'm pretty skeptical of this toxic mold boogey man - certainly toxic molds exist, but I think most of this "toxic mold" FUD from contractors is meant to scare suburban housewives and fleece insurance companies for remediation work.

The thing about mold is that 99 times out of 100 (or hell, 999 times out of 1000) it's going to be a mostly-harmless variety, but that one time, if not remediated or if the work is done by someone that doesn't know how to properly handle the mold, it is definitely going to gently caress up someone's life, and even quite possibly kill them.

budgieinspector
Mar 24, 2006

According to my research,
these would appear to be
Budgerigars.

moana posted:

I understand what you're saying, and that's a tough spot to be in. You said you hadn't started house searching - why not start now?

Well, I've been looking online for the past couple of weeks. Not sure if I want to try and get a pre-approval and go realtor-hunting, just yet, due to the questions I've got about the housing situation.

But yeah, that's how I figured out that what I can afford =/= where I want to be. If I want to even buy in my own neighborhood (and I'd be happy to; I like it a lot) I'd need to come up with at least $450K. I guess that the good news is that the $450K+ houses in the areas I'm after look like the $450K+ houses in the less-desirable neighborhoods in the same general vicinity -- meaning that the minimum entry price gets one a pretty damned nice house, and not a dump on a super-expensive piece of land.

quote:

The significant increase in your income will happen when you get that other person with whom you will be cosigning and making babies.

Heh -- while that would definitely be nice, I don't know if I want that in the forefront of my mind. "I'm lookin' for love, ladies -- and you better bring your pay stubs and a recent credit report!"

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Unless you insist on your future wife being a professional, you shouldn't count on a future spouse's income to help with the house. It'll be great, but, just in my own example ferinstance, my wife is an artist, and she makes about enough money to pay her own student loans (private uni for a master's degree), personal expenses, and to help a bit with the groceries.

Which doesn't matter to me at all, I love her and want her to pursue her career, but it does mean I'm paying for the house myself. Which is also fine.

Actually I think it's a good idea when couples budget for a house, to take into account the possibility of one of them choosing to change careers, go back to school, or something, at some point. Lots of adults do that these days, and you don't want to be in a situation where, five or six years down the road, you feel trapped in your current jobs because of your house payment, even if you hate your career and want to change. Even if the new career would ultimately have a higher earning potential, but you can't afford to start over, go to school, and spend three to five years earning less money before you can earn more.

Tap
Apr 12, 2003

Note to self: Do not shove foreign objects in mouth.
hosed Up Situation Post

I'm currently in the process of purchasing a new home. I'm at the point now where the standard agreement has been finalized and signed by both parties. The inspection has been done, and the inspection addendum to agreement of sale has been back and forth a few times, and it's been finalized on my end. I'm currently waiting for them to sign it.

I've basically caught up on everything I need to do from this point forward. The only thing that is left is to deliver the information to the mortgage company so I can get the loan. The settlement date is October 30th, so I have plenty of time.

These people have been extremely frustrating to deal with. They haven't budged in negotiations from price to items included with purchase to items included after inspection. The radon was extremely high, and they are refusing to pay for the radon system, among a few other things they were unwilling to negotiate. I'm basically doing all I can to purchase this home because I like the property a lot.

I got a call today from my Realtor saying that the sellers are having issues with their new home, and are unwilling to move unless they are able to purchase the place they are trying to buy.

My question is: if these people end up not coming to terms on this new property they are purchasing, can they legally stay at their home? Keep in mind they haven't signed the inspection addendum (which the only modification on it is including a few bar stools in the price of the home - not quite sure why this is on the inspection addendum, but whatever). Does that give them an angle to walk away from this deal by saying they refuse to sign it? If that's so, I'm out ~$800 in inspection costs, water tests, and termite inspection. I'll also be missing out on the $8000 tax credit since I'm a first time home buyer.

Please help!

SlapActionJackson
Jul 27, 2006

That's highly dependent on what is in the purchase contract and your state law. It's probably best to consult a RE attorney.

Tap
Apr 12, 2003

Note to self: Do not shove foreign objects in mouth.
I probably should have mentioned that on the Standard Agreement there is no contingency clause stating they need to have settled on their new home before I can settle on their current home.

Trident
Jun 18, 2004
We cook your meals, we drive your ambulances. We connect your calls, we guard you while you sleep. Do not... fuck with us.

Tap posted:

I'm out ~$800 in inspection costs, water tests, and termite inspection. I'll also be missing out on the $8000 tax credit since I'm a first time home buyer.

Please help!

Welcome to home buying. I paid for inspections and tests for three homes that one way or another fell through before we finally found the one we are buying now. They are investments in making sure you find a house that is not a shithole/moneypit.

My wife and I are stuck now, because we were supposed to be closing on Monday, but the bank has not yet received our 2008 tax returns from the IRS. It has been almost 3 weeks since they requested copies. I realize that it is a good thing that banks are no longer to accept my copies of my return, since it could be faked and hence unreliable, but loving come on, this sucks.

Trident
Jun 18, 2004
We cook your meals, we drive your ambulances. We connect your calls, we guard you while you sleep. Do not... fuck with us.
Sorry to doublepost but I thought you guys might want to know how bad things can suck.

We are still waiting for the IRS to get our tax return to the bank. We were supposed to close Monday. I thought it was odd that our realtor hadn't suggested filing for a contract extension, so I called them. Our closing coordinator took off the whole week we are supposed to be closing. I panic and insist that they send me a form for a request for contract extension. I bust my rear end to get my signature and my wife's signature (she works 50 miles away from where I work) on it, scan it and email it back to the realtor's office. Today I come in and call to see if we got it signed by the seller, and actually have an extended contract. Our closing coordinator is back in the office, and she cannot find the extension form in our file. They never printed it or sent it to the seller.

I want to die right now.

Strict 9
Jun 20, 2001

by Y Kant Ozma Post
Ugh. That's a nightmare. We just signed our P&S so we're now onto the fun financing and closing phase. Luckily our bank accepted copies of our tax return without a problem.

Trident
Jun 18, 2004
We cook your meals, we drive your ambulances. We connect your calls, we guard you while you sleep. Do not... fuck with us.
our bank accepted ours as well, but they said that with the new law changes requiring greater accountability, they have to get an official copy as well. Who knows who is bullshitting me at this point.

Abbeh
May 23, 2006

When I grow up I mean to be
A Lion large and fierce to see.
(Thank you, Das Boo!)
We closed on Monday - moving Friday. What a headache. I'm so glad it's finally over!

Pinkied_Brain
Aug 4, 2004

I have a little dillema -

Turns out the $8,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers only applies for people making under 75K (single). Then it gets linearly prorated until 95K at which point you get 0 tax credit.

So now that I found that out, I need to max out my 401k which will bring my income down to 85K. However - this means I have to put about 50% of my income into the 401k for the remaining 3 months of the year, which doesn't leave me much money to pay the mortgage for my newly acquired home.

So - has anyone been in that area above the minimum for the tax credit but below the cutoff point, does it work ok? Do you think it's worth it to do it (my employer doesn't do any matching) - losing 15,000 now to gain 4000 later in the year, plus having 15,000 in my 401k?

geetee
Feb 2, 2004

>;[

Pinkied_Brain posted:

I have a little dillema

Is your salary over 75K or is your AGI over 75k?

Realjones
May 16, 2004

geetee posted:

Is your salary over 75K or is your AGI over 75k?

I would guess that he makes $100K gross, with $15K in his 401k bringing him down to $85Kish AGI.

Pinkied_Brain posted:

So - has anyone been in that area above the minimum for the tax credit but below the cutoff point, does it work ok? Do you think it's worth it to do it (my employer doesn't do any matching) - losing 15,000 now to gain 4000 later in the year, plus having 15,000 in my 401k?

You can use your 2008 tax return AGI instead - was that below $85K? If it's not and you can manage the squeeze, it's probably worth it to max out that 401k to get your AGI down. Let's say your income is $100K and you are on pace to put $5K in your 401k this year, leaving you with AGI of $95K (and no credit). If you put in another $10K that will drop you to $85K and get you $4000 back. That's an instant 40% return on your $10K 401k contribution, and you even get a check in the mail for it! I would call whoever does your taxes and they could give you concrete numbers.

Realjones fucked around with this message at 04:19 on Sep 30, 2009

Pinkied_Brain
Aug 4, 2004

Well ok then, thanks!

Inferior Third Season
Jan 15, 2005

Pinkied_Brain posted:

I have a little dillema -

Turns out the $8,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers only applies for people making under 75K (single). Then it gets linearly prorated until 95K at which point you get 0 tax credit.

So now that I found that out, I need to max out my 401k which will bring my income down to 85K. However - this means I have to put about 50% of my income into the 401k for the remaining 3 months of the year, which doesn't leave me much money to pay the mortgage for my newly acquired home.

So - has anyone been in that area above the minimum for the tax credit but below the cutoff point, does it work ok? Do you think it's worth it to do it (my employer doesn't do any matching) - losing 15,000 now to gain 4000 later in the year, plus having 15,000 in my 401k?
You might want to look into taking out a loan from your 401k while sinking money into it at the same time. You may be able to finagle it so that you get your income this year down while not actually running short on cash.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

My stepdad's been forwarding me stuff. This is from an article by Sham Gad, a contributor on RealMoney (subscription required).

Sham Gad posted:

Sham Gad
Housing Inventory is Big Issue Right Now
9/29/2009 2:08 PM EDT
Indeed, housing will recover way before we approach zero inventory. But some excellent data from Amherst Securities, a specailist in mortgage backed securities and who has been spot on calling this mess, doesn't bode well for the near term for housing.

Amherst released a report last Wednesday which was viewed by Barron's. It's a negative picture that doesn't show any near term signs of hope. As a result of default's and foreclosure Amherst estimates over 7 million units of "shadow inventory." To put this number in perspective, 1.3 million units was the "inventory" back in 2005. Not to mention this number - 7 million - constitutes 135% of a full years existing home sales.

Amherst furthers suggest that 300,000 mortgages enter into the sphere of delinquency each month. Unless an arguement can be made that the foreclosure rate is coming to a sudden turn, I have a hard time seeing the light at the end of the tunnel anytime soon.

That "shadow inventory" he's referring to, consists of mortgages at least 90 days past due. In a normal year, those would be going into foreclosure. This year, many of them are not... in fact, there are a huge number of houses that are over 12 months past due on mortgages, but have not entered foreclosure. Basically, the banks are sitting on these things, because as long as they don't foreclose, they don't have to admit (via losses reported to the Street) the true loss of value in their portfolios.

Or something. That's a guess. But the shadow inventory is real. I don't know what they're going to do with it - maybe go on a bonanza of dealmaking to help people stay in their houses, maybe beg the government to bail them out, or, maybe, spend the next year dumping 7 million excess units onto the market and watching housing prices tank all that much more, as millions of them attract no bids whatsoever.

Of course, we should keep in mind those are nationwide statistics. In some areas, the picture may be much better (or much worse).

Edit: To add to the above:
From the Wall Street Journal, quoted by Barry Ritholtz:

WSJ posted:

“The size of this shadow inventory is a source of concern and debate among real-estate agents and analysts who worry that when the supply is unleashed, it could interrupt the budding housing recovery and ignite a new wave of stress in the housing market . . . Analysts who track the shadow market have focused primarily on the gap between the number of seriously delinquent loans and the number of foreclosed homes for sale by mortgage companies. A loan is considered seriously delinquent, which typically means it is headed to foreclosure, if it is 90 days or more past due.

As of July, mortgage companies hadn’t begun the foreclosure process on 1.2 million loans that were at least 90 days past due, according to estimates prepared for The Wall Street Journal by LPS Applied Analytics, which collects and analyzes mortgage data. An additional 1.5 million seriously delinquent loans were somewhere in the foreclosure process, though the lender hadn’t yet acquired the property. The figures don’t include home-equity loans and other second mortgages.

Moreover, there were 217,000 loans in July where the borrower hadn’t made a payment in at least a year but the lender hadn’t begun the foreclosure process. In other words, 17% of home mortgages that are at least 12 months overdue aren’t in foreclosure, up from 8% a year earlier.”

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 18:40 on Sep 30, 2009

FCKGW
May 21, 2006

WSJ posted:

Moreover, there were 217,000 loans in July where the borrower hadn’t made a payment in at least a year but the lender hadn’t begun the foreclosure process. In other words, 17% of home mortgages that are at least 12 months overdue aren’t in foreclosure, up from 8% a year earlier.”

That is a frightening statistic. You have a nearly 1 in 5 chance of not paying for you house for a year and living there for free, or having enough time to rip the copper out of the walls and sell everything inside not nailed down.

I laugh when I keep seeing all these reports on TV about how the housing prices are rising again, subtly hinting that we're at the bottom and you should buy now! Free $8k monies! Then you see reports like the default rate posted at the beginning of this page showing that defaults won't end until 2012 and resorts like this showing that the banks are sitting on 7 million homes that may drop in a lump default some day.

I guess it's a good to be a buyer then? Cheap homes for a while? v:confused:v

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

BorderPatrol posted:

I guess it's a good to be a buyer then? Cheap homes for a while? v:confused:v

Exactly. We've been shopping for a while, and we'd love to get the $8k credit, but we're passing on dozens of houses because we know there's no real time pressure. If we see a single substantial thing we're unhappy with, we're not going to bid. That means some flaw that will be too expensive or time-consuming to fix ourselves, or any aspect of the house, property, location, or price, that gives us pause. We figure we've got the luxury to be as picky as we want.

Loads of people seem to be getting desperate around here, having lost several bids, wanting to get the tax credit, etc. We saw a house last week where someone had made a bid for it sight unseen. They backed out after visiting the house. No doubt they're doing that again, just as a tactic to get a bid in before everyone else. It's slimy but to be expected (and a wise seller should not consider a bid from a buyer who is clearly using such tactics).

I'm sure our realtor will be sad if it takes us another 6 months before we get a house, but, we've been very open with him about our plan, and he is OK with it.

The only urgency I am feeling, and it's minor, is interest rates. They're very low right now but if they start to rise rapidly, I'll start to get concerned. I don't want to get stuck with something above 6%.

Strict 9
Jun 20, 2001

by Y Kant Ozma Post

Leperflesh posted:

The only urgency I am feeling, and it's minor, is interest rates. They're very low right now but if they start to rise rapidly, I'll start to get concerned. I don't want to get stuck with something above 6%.

This was my main concern as well. My wife and I are closing on a house in a few weeks. We bought mainly because it was a good time in our life (new kids, settling down, etc). We didn't buy for a measly $8000 on a loan that is going to cost, something like 100 times that. And we didn't buy because home prices are bottoming because, really, who knows.

But the mortgage rates being near record lows was definitely a consideration for us. An increase of 1 point in the rate, say from 5 to 6, would cost an extra $200 per month. That's insane!

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

That's the miracle of compound interest.

We saw a house today that we liked a lot - we're going to bid tomorrow. So much for "la la la we have plenty of time", but then again, there's a very good chance we won't have the highest bid, and we're OK with that.

Zfuut
Jun 18, 2005
Great advise in this thread so far
Situation-My wife and I are in our young 20s looking to buy a house in AZ. We have a brand new house picked out in the neighborhood we are currently renting a house in. The house is about 220,000 and we are hoping to get a FHA with 3.5% down (making our monthly payment about 1400). I bring in 35,000 a year from my job(2000/mo + 700/mo from a trust fund) and she is a currently an unemployed teacher, who due to our terrible state of education in AZ probably won’t have a job until next year. Normally we could never afford monthly payments on this house, however my savings are about 80,000 and when she gets a job next year our income will almost double. so for the next few months we would have to dip into savings to stay afloat. My parents are set against this move which is why I’m asking, assuming I qualify for the loan, is this a terrible move?

Buckwheat Sings
Feb 9, 2005

Zfuut posted:

when she gets a job next year our income will almost double. so for the next few months we would have to dip into savings to stay afloat. My parents are set against this move which is why I’m asking, assuming I qualify for the loan, is this a terrible move?

Buy it when she gets a job. She might even get a job out of state for all you know. Never bank on unknowns with this stuff since this will most likely be the largest purchase of your life. Like others said, this house crisis is far from over.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

You will have a very hard time qualifying for a 220k loan at your current income. The FHA does not care how much money you think you'll be able to make once your wife gets a job - your current income, last year's tax forms, etc. matter.

What you COULD do is use your big cash reserves to pay a big down, so your mortgage is much smaller. If you can put 20% down, you'll avoid PMI/FHA insurance payments, as well as having a substantially lower payment (and instant equity in the house).

Even so... just wait till your wife gets that job. You do not want to be in a situation where the employment situation worsens, you've got zero equity in your house, your savings are rapidly dwindling, and you have to try and sell into a saturated, crappy market, taking a bath on costs, and getting nothing from the zero equity you don't have in the house.

Dik Hz
Feb 22, 2004

Fun with Science

Zfuut posted:

Great advise in this thread so far
Situation-My wife and I are in our young 20s looking to buy a house in AZ. We have a brand new house picked out in the neighborhood we are currently renting a house in. The house is about 220,000 and we are hoping to get a FHA with 3.5% down (making our monthly payment about 1400). I bring in 35,000 a year from my job(2000/mo + 700/mo from a trust fund) and she is a currently an unemployed teacher, who due to our terrible state of education in AZ probably won’t have a job until next year. Normally we could never afford monthly payments on this house, however my savings are about 80,000 and when she gets a job next year our income will almost double. so for the next few months we would have to dip into savings to stay afloat. My parents are set against this move which is why I’m asking, assuming I qualify for the loan, is this a terrible move?
You're best off waiting for your wife to get a job. Housing prices will most likely come down when the tax credit goes away. So there's no hurry.

moana
Jun 18, 2005

one of the more intellectual satire communities on the web

Leperflesh posted:

Even so... just wait till your wife gets that job. You do not want to be in a situation where the employment situation worsens, you've got zero equity in your house, your savings are rapidly dwindling, and you have to try and sell into a saturated, crappy market, taking a bath on costs, and getting nothing from the zero equity you don't have in the house.
Nthing this sentiment. If, god forbid, you lose your job before she gets a new one, you would have absolutely nothing to fall back on. There's nothing wrong with waiting until next year to buy. And although it's unlikely that she would be looking for a job out of state (does Arizona have teacher credential reciprocity with any other states?) there's always the possibility. Even if you're dead set on staying where you are, it's probably a good idea to wait. Take the time to get your ducks in order, get your credit score up some more, etc.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Just to add some more: your $1400 a month cost is not right.

That might be what your actual mortgage payment will be, but it's clearly not including: property taxes, insurance, PMI/FHA insurance (a big hit if you don't go with a conventional, 20% down loan), and increased maintenance & energy costs.

I know this because I am looking at an FHA loan on a house at very close to the same price. I figured my monthly costs, not including maintenance and energy, is closer to $1800... and California has quite low property taxes (around 1.1%/yr in my case).

My wife and I make just under $100k/year. We have some additional debt, but even so... I think $1800 is plenty for our budget. You're making a little over a third (call it two-fifths) what we are... so that seems to me like a pretty huge payment for you.

GOOCHY
Sep 17, 2003

In an interstellar burst I'm back to save the universe!

Zfuut posted:

Great advise in this thread so far
Situation-My wife and I are in our young 20s looking to buy a house in AZ. We have a brand new house picked out in the neighborhood we are currently renting a house in. The house is about 220,000 and we are hoping to get a FHA with 3.5% down (making our monthly payment about 1400). I bring in 35,000 a year from my job(2000/mo + 700/mo from a trust fund) and she is a currently an unemployed teacher, who due to our terrible state of education in AZ probably won’t have a job until next year. Normally we could never afford monthly payments on this house, however my savings are about 80,000 and when she gets a job next year our income will almost double. so for the next few months we would have to dip into savings to stay afloat. My parents are set against this move which is why I’m asking, assuming I qualify for the loan, is this a terrible move?

You can't afford to buy a house. It's a bad idea all around. That doesn't even take into account that if you have 80 large in savings why in the world are you looking for a 3.5% down FHA loan? I fully understand the value of liquidity but if you're buying a home with only 3.5% down you're looking at mortgage insurance costs that'll eat you alive (plus probably an interest rate that's higher than you could have otherwise gotten with a normal 20% down payment).

Don't buy a house.

DailyDumSum
May 21, 2004
Fresh Daily
I don't know if I should be posting here in the house buying thread or the tax thread, but I have a situation involving property.

My grandma is quite sick and she's thinking of dividing up her properties to her grandchildren. She wants to give this stuff to us (gift), but my brother and I got into this argument of if a gift of property would still have to pay for a land transfer tax (I'm from Ontario).

He's saying that if it's a gift, then no taxes needed to be paid. I stated that if it was in a will, it still would need to pay (via capital gains) and that most likely even if she says it's a gift, most likely the government would still want us to pay taxes on whoever gets the property.

Does anyone know anything about this problem?

Dik Hz
Feb 22, 2004

Fun with Science

DailyDumSum posted:

I don't know if I should be posting here in the house buying thread or the tax thread, but I have a situation involving property.

My grandma is quite sick and she's thinking of dividing up her properties to her grandchildren. She wants to give this stuff to us (gift), but my brother and I got into this argument of if a gift of property would still have to pay for a land transfer tax (I'm from Ontario).

He's saying that if it's a gift, then no taxes needed to be paid. I stated that if it was in a will, it still would need to pay (via capital gains) and that most likely even if she says it's a gift, most likely the government would still want us to pay taxes on whoever gets the property.

Does anyone know anything about this problem?
Her estate attorney (she has one right?) would be able to answer these questions readily. One thing estate attorneys are great at is figuring out how to transfer things legally and incur the absolute minimum in taxes.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

GOOCHY posted:

You can't afford to buy a house. It's a bad idea all around. That doesn't even take into account that if you have 80 large in savings why in the world are you looking for a 3.5% down FHA loan? I fully understand the value of liquidity but if you're buying a home with only 3.5% down you're looking at mortgage insurance costs that'll eat you alive (plus probably an interest rate that's higher than you could have otherwise gotten with a normal 20% down payment).

Don't buy a house.

You are right of course, but let's be clear; FHA mortgage insurance is pretty cheap, comparatively speaking..

For FHA, you pay 1.5% of the loan amount up front (and can roll that into the mortgage itself if you want). That's 3300 or so for our guy and he can pay that in cash.

Then, you pay .5% of the mortgage amount per year, canceled when your principal reaches 22%, but with a minimum of 5 years. (You have to pay a few months up-front of this on purchase, but that's just another closing cost that you then 'get back' by not having to pay it for the next few months.)

On our guy's loan amount, that's less than 1200 a year, or under $100 a month. It's a substantial cost to take into account, but it's not "eat you alive" bad.

PMI on such a small down would be a lot higher (which is why FHA is a better deal when you have a tiny down payment!). Obviously going with 20% down is a better move, for lower mortgage payments, NO PMI/FHA insurance, and a good buffer in case you have to suddenly sell in a year and the house value has dropped. With his savings, it's a no-brainer to make the 20% down, get a conventional loan, and get a better interest rate in the bargain (which makes a HUGE difference in monthly cost).

But even if he does that, he should wait till his wife is working in a stable job. Prices are not going to leap back into the stratosphere in 12 months, especially not in Arizona!

Zewle
Aug 12, 2005
Delaware Defense Force Janitor
Me and fiance pull in about 47K combined, both in college, both going to state university, not gonna be able to live with parents late next year so either going to have to rent or buy. Rent is more expensive than mortgage, and slightly cheaper than mortgage with utilities in this area. My dads legally obligated to pay half my college, and my mom won't have many bills once she moves so she'll be able to help with mortgage (not necessary or even a gigantic relief, but definitely a perk)

Gonna be here for at least 5 years, the only reason we'd have to move is if an engineering and business major are going to have to look beyond the central Maryland-DC area for work.

Looking at getting a mortgage of 150K or less, with a 10% down payment on a 15 year FHA loan to avoid PMI. My credits junked due to some personal things, but has 9 months to improve, hers is fine, neither of us have any debt, and either of my parents can co-sign. Also planning on paying off the mortgage essentially ASAP and always having at least a years worth of mortgage in savings for worst case scenario.


Also was curious if it'd be realistic to say, get an alright rundown HUD home and fix it up for like 30K with one of those loans that rolls up the price of mortgage and repairs into one loan.


Not gonna pretend my mind isn't essentially made up, but I'd appreciate someone trying to slam the bits of reality that I overlooked into my face on this.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

You can get a fix-it loan, but keep in mind that you will have to have the repairs done before you can move in, really. That can be an issue depending on how much work needs to be done. It'll also be harder to get the loan.

With 10% down you will not "avoid PMI", you'll be substituting FHA's insurance for it (see my post just above for the breakdown).

Your big issue is your credit though. If your credit sucks, you won't qualify for a loan. FHA is a loan program but the loan itself still comes from a real bank, and the real bank won't loan you money if you're a huge credit risk.

It sounds to me like you have a decent plan with lots of room to maneuver, but, you should not take any action until your credit score is good, and then re-assess at that point.

This is another concern: "the only reason we'd have to move is if an engineering and business major are going to have to look beyond the central Maryland-DC area for work."

You're just going into college? What if you change your mind about your desired career? What if you get a great job offer in New York or something? I think buying a house while you're just brand-new married, and you're both still in college, is risky. You can't predict the job market in 5 years from now, and people in college (myself included) have this tendency to change their minds after a couple of years of discovering what they're doing isn't actually for them. I hope that's not too condescending, it's just a fact, maybe you're an exception, I dunno.

Zewle
Aug 12, 2005
Delaware Defense Force Janitor

Leperflesh posted:

Your big issue is your credit though. If your credit sucks, you won't qualify for a loan. FHA is a loan program but the loan itself still comes from a real bank, and the real bank won't loan you money if you're a huge credit risk.

It sounds to me like you have a decent plan with lots of room to maneuver, but, you should not take any action until your credit score is good, and then re-assess at that point.

I was under the impression that while bad credit for atleast one spouse is a bad sign, as long as you've fixed out debt and been improving it for awhile it'll look fine, especially when you can afford an alright downpayment in addition to easily being able to afford it. Atleast concerning FHA anyway,. Not planning on applying for about 9 months too, and I'm gonna do everything I can to get to 600-something.

Leperflesh posted:

This is another concern: "the only reason we'd have to move is if an engineering and business major are going to have to look beyond the central Maryland-DC area for work."

You're just going into college? What if you change your mind about your desired career? What if you get a great job offer in New York or something? I think buying a house while you're just brand-new married, and you're both still in college, is risky. You can't predict the job market in 5 years from now, and people in college (myself included) have this tendency to change their minds after a couple of years of discovering what they're doing isn't actually for them. I hope that's not too condescending, it's just a fact, maybe you're an exception, I dunno.

Oh I agree, the plans actually to have it paid off about the time we finish college so we can sell it in case we have to move, or maybe rent it out. But considering we live and go to school in an area thats commutable to like 3 major metropolitan areas, we might not even have to worry about that.

Other thing I like about this plan is that it looks like house will be affordable on two minimum wage incomes if absolutely necessary in a pinch on top of a years worth of mortgage savings.

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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Yeah. That's like a foreign concept to me. There are houses in the Bay Area for 100k - they're in the bad parts of Richmond, a really, really nasty neighborhood filled with gangs and murders and sky-high burglary rates. The idea of a place with 100k houses that's actually a nice place to live... it's crazy.

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