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moana
Jun 18, 2005

one of the more intellectual satire communities on the web

Leperflesh posted:

Moving your money around doesn't matter; they'll only ask for the most recent bank statements to show how much actual cash you have.
Once you apply for a loan for reals, though, it's a good idea not to move anything around because they need to track that movement and it can slow down the final process of getting the loan approved.

Sucks that you didn't report your income, though. Hopefully it won't make too much of a difference, but if it does you just need to suck it up and report honestly for the next couple of years before buying.

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MrMidnight
Aug 3, 2006

GODDAMNIT

According to this article: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/11/07/BUL71AGACR.DTL&type=business, there are new higher income limits concerning the first time home buyer tax credit. If I had waited just 3 more months I would have qualified!!

Is there anything I can do about this? I bought my house in August.

Inept
Jul 8, 2003

MrMidnight posted:

GODDAMNIT

According to this article: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/11/07/BUL71AGACR.DTL&type=business, there are new higher income limits concerning the first time home buyer tax credit. If I had waited just 3 more months I would have qualified!!

Is there anything I can do about this? I bought my house in August.

Nope, you're screwed. The whole point of a stimulus is to spur new purchases, not give refunds for ones already gone by.

MrMidnight
Aug 3, 2006

Inept posted:

Nope, you're screwed. The whole point of a stimulus is to spur new purchases, not give refunds for ones already gone by.

That's what I thought. Still sucks though.

Ophelia's Ashes
Jun 4, 2003
Alias the nuisance grounds
Well we have started seriously looking and are hoping to make the big purchase in April/May.

We were preapproved for $480,000 but are looking within the 260 - 315 range. We have $20,000 saved up as a downpayment. We have such a small downpayment because I just spent the last year getting myself out of $38,000 in debt due to school.

This is the first home purchase for both of us and we don't have any family here to guide us, so we are pretty much stumbling around blindly.

Currently the only debt we have is a $478 car payment a month. Combined we make $106,000 a year.

This is my question; I don't get...mortgage loan insurance. According to what I've read online, because we are borrowing 95% of our housing cost, the mortgage insurance will cost us about $9000/year. Meaning if we have a $1200/month mortgage payment we have to add an extra $750/month for the mortgage loan insurance. That just seems unbelievable to me. We have a couple of friends who have bought houses in this price range with 5% down and don't seem to be having a problem with it. Infact, most of them have no idea what they pay for mortgage loan insurance per month leading me to believe I am incredibly misinformed.

Can anyone please give me some insight into this?

A couple notes:
- we are in Canada
- We are looking within that price range because we live in Edmonton Alberta which is the Province's capital and is fuelled by oil. It's virutally impossible to find anything in good condition below that price range.
- staying in an apartment and continuing to save for a downpayment isn't an option for us.

anitsirK
May 19, 2005

Here is the table of information on Mortgage loan insurance in Canada:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/moloin/moloin_005.cfm

With a 95% downpayment on (let's say) a $315,000 house, you're looking at insuring a $299,250 loan, which at 2.75% of the loan = 8,229.38.

Our CMHC premium was rolled into the total loan amount up-front, so you'd likely be looking at a total mortgage for 307,479.38. You pay it off over the course of the mortgage.

Your mistake is that you're looking at it as if it's an annual premium, which it's not.

Ophelia's Ashes
Jun 4, 2003
Alias the nuisance grounds

anitsirK posted:

Here is the table of information on Mortgage loan insurance in Canada:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/moloin/moloin_005.cfm

With a 95% downpayment on (let's say) a $315,000 house, you're looking at insuring a $299,250 loan, which at 2.75% of the loan = 8,229.38.

Our CMHC premium was rolled into the total loan amount up-front, so you'd likely be looking at a total mortgage for 307,479.38. You pay it off over the course of the mortgage.

Your mistake is that you're looking at it as if it's an annual premium, which it's not.

OH. So it's approx $9K in total?!

anitsirK
May 19, 2005

Ophelia's Ashes posted:

OH. So it's approx $9K in total?!

Yup. At least that's certainly what we were led to believe, based on our mortgage paperwork.

Ophelia's Ashes
Jun 4, 2003
Alias the nuisance grounds

anitsirK posted:

Yup. At least that's certainly what we were led to believe, based on our mortgage paperwork.

That's amazing! Thanks so much, it makes things a lot easier now!

I love how I asked 3 different home owners and finally someone from the internet fixed my problem.

Caustic
Jan 20, 2005
How realistic is it to give lowball offers on bank-owned properties? For instance, in my area a home is listed at $375,000 in a stable-to-likely-declining market. If you were to offer $300,000, would they reject the offer outright? Do real estate agents shy away from participating in lowball offers since it means less commission for them?

The impression I get is that banks list at what they expect to get, and if the property doesn't sell for a period of time, the might drop the price dramatically and then get flooded with offers that end up fairly close to their original price.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

It is entirely hit or miss.

We bid on a property back in early October. It was listed at $219. We bid $236. It sold for $210 - an all-cash offer. In that case, the bank would rather have $210 with a very fast, all-cash close, than take $236+ (we may not have had the highest offer) with a likely 45-day+ FHA close, and an appraisal contingency imposed by the bank, and escrow, etc.

We are currently in escrow on a house where we bid exactly the asking price, just a few days after it listed, and there were no other bids.

We've seen loads of properties where the bank (their agent, actually) listed the price for very low, to solicit lots of bidding. My agent said he has one client who bid $230k on a house that was listed for $130k, and got it (but is now having problems with the appraisal coming in low). In that case, the property was very definitely priced way lower than what it was worth.

We've also seen properties listed for a good $50k more than they could possibly be worth, and sit unsold for months on end. In those cases the bank is very clearly insisting on that price, because people will make lowball offers just to see if they can get lucky.

So basically it depends on the bank and what they're trying to do and how smart they are and how much they're willing to take a bath on the foreclosure.

The best advice I've seen is this: bid what you're willing to pay, no more, no less. If you don't get it, well, you weren't willing to pay more, so no worries. If you do get it, well, you bid what you felt it was worth to you, so you should be happy to pay that price.

Daeus
Nov 17, 2001

Leperflesh posted:

The best advice I've seen is this: bid what you're willing to pay, no more, no less. If you don't get it, well, you weren't willing to pay more, so no worries. If you do get it, well, you bid what you felt it was worth to you, so you should be happy to pay that price.

If I am willing to pay 220k, but think I can get it for 200k, why in the world would I bid 220k?

anitsirK
May 19, 2005

Ophelia's Ashes posted:

That's amazing! Thanks so much, it makes things a lot easier now!

I love how I asked 3 different home owners and finally someone from the internet fixed my problem.

I think, if it comes to refinancing (after your first 5 year term or whatever you end up getting) and you still have less than x% equity, you may be forced to pay the insurance again. I'm not 100% clear on how that works yet. That table mentions something about loan mobility and refinance, but it's in reference to an increase in loan amount, and I'm not planning on increasing my loan amount... so I don't think you/we should be paying again.

GOOCHY
Sep 17, 2003

In an interstellar burst I'm back to save the universe!

Leperflesh posted:

It is entirely hit or miss.

We bid on a property back in early October. It was listed at $219. We bid $236.

With the current real estate market why are you bidding above asking price for any property whatsoever?

moana
Jun 18, 2005

one of the more intellectual satire communities on the web

Daeus posted:

If I am willing to pay 220k, but think I can get it for 200k, why in the world would I bid 220k?
If you bid less than you're willing to pay someone else might get the property (for, say, $205k). Are you okay with that? Of course, you have no idea what other people are bidding, so you should bid whatever you are willing to pay. If you really want a good deal, then great, you're only willing to pay 200k and you should bid that. Some people don't want to make a dozen bids before getting a house for less than they think it's worth, they'd rather make a bid for what they want to pay. If you consistently underbid, you might never get an offer accepted or it might just take a really long time (and some people just can't or don't want to wait for that great deal).

GOOCHY posted:

With the current real estate market why are you bidding above asking price for any property whatsoever?
I'm assuming he was talking about a bank-owned property. Some of these are listed ridiculously low to promote more bids on the house and hopefully start a bidding war. A lot of the times after you make your initial bid, the bank will come back and ask you for your "highest and best" offer. If the other houses in the neighborhood are $250k and the asking was $110k, you are going to be bidding more than the asking price because the asking price was set artificially low to induce bids.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

GOOCHY posted:

With the current real estate market why are you bidding above asking price for any property whatsoever?

I live in the Bay Area. That house attracted 13 bids. A previous house we wanted had 30 bids already, when we inquired. Unlike most of the rest of the country, activity here has been crazy.

Also see above: many banks are deliberately lowballing the price to attract bidders, and houses are routinely closing for substantially above asking.

Daeus posted:

If I am willing to pay 220k, but think I can get it for 200k, why in the world would I bid 220k?

Because you do not want to be outbid? Obviously if, in your area, houses are sitting without bids for weeks on end, then of course you shouldn't overbid what you think you can get the house for.

Edit: I should clarify that I am talking about bank-owned houses in a market where almost all properties are attracting multiple bids within a week or two of being listed.

As moana points out, sometimes a bank will make a counteroffer if your offer is too low, but is still one of the top one or two bids on the house. However, they will just as often simply reject your offer. Some of these banks seem to have the opinion that if they engage in negotiation, they'll get lowballed by most offers, whereas if they simply set a date, collect all bids until that date, and then take the top bid and reject the rest without negotiation (and of course without disclosing existing bids to new bidders), they'll be more likely to get the best possible price. Effectively it's a blind auction and there's lots of sound theory about why blind auctions can, in certain circumstances, fetch a higher final bid than other methods.

They may or may not be correct in that theory but it is clearly quite common.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 04:38 on Nov 18, 2009

Dik Hz
Feb 22, 2004

Fun with Science

Leperflesh posted:

The best advice I've seen is this: bid what you're willing to pay, no more, no less. If you don't get it, well, you weren't willing to pay more, so no worries. If you do get it, well, you bid what you felt it was worth to you, so you should be happy to pay that price.
This is pretty bad advice, especially in today's market. The best advice I've heard is don't get fixated on any one house. There are plenty of fish in the sea.

Do your research, find out what the market value of the house is, and bid appropriately.

leperflesh posted:

Edit: I should clarify that I am talking about bank-owned houses in a market where almost all properties are attracting multiple bids within a week or two of being listed.
You should go back an edit in to your original post this qualification that does not apply to the overwhelmingly vast majority of properties

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

You should chill out. I was responding to, and quoted, someone who specifically said they were bidding on bank-owned foreclosed properties. My clarification was only necessary because some people weren't paying attention.

Bong Goblin
Jul 2, 2009
So now that the credit has been extended, is it still a requirement that I be fully moved in to the house by November 30? I'm still dealing with what I'd call a severe fixer-upper, and it may or may not be completely ready by then (but it'd be minor, like not having an egress window installed in a bedroom, not having all the siding completely primed/painted.) Now that the credit is good until sometime next year, has the move-in deadline extended, too? I closed on the house in October.

But anyways, how does the IRS figure out who's moved in and who hasn't? I haven't looked at the form I need to fill out for next year's taxes, but I can't imagine what I'll have to provide for proof... an electric bill mailed to the new address? Simply the deed?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

You never had to be moved in, just take possession by Nov. 30. Except now with the extension, there is no Nov. 30 deadline, it's the end of March (April? Too lazy to go look it up) and they also changed it so you only have to be in-contract by then or something.

If you've already taken title on the house, you should be fine regardless.

Edit: to claim the credit you attach a copy of your settlement statement to your tax return. I don't see how the IRS could even verify the date you moved into the house anyway. What could you possibly provide as proof of such a thing?

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 22:00 on Nov 19, 2009

Uuudar
Apr 18, 2003

Bong Goblin posted:

So now that the credit has been extended, is it still a requirement that I be fully moved in to the house by November 30? I'm still dealing with what I'd call a severe fixer-upper, and it may or may not be completely ready by then (but it'd be minor, like not having an egress window installed in a bedroom, not having all the siding completely primed/painted.) Now that the credit is good until sometime next year, has the move-in deadline extended, too? I closed on the house in October.

But anyways, how does the IRS figure out who's moved in and who hasn't? I haven't looked at the form I need to fill out for next year's taxes, but I can't imagine what I'll have to provide for proof... an electric bill mailed to the new address? Simply the deed?

I included a copy of my Bill of Closing which had the closing date on it with my tax return.

slap me silly
Nov 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer
I included no evidence whatsoever and I already got my check...

E: Not suggesting fraud here, I really did buy a house thank you

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

slap me silly posted:

I included no evidence whatsoever and I already got my check...

E: Not suggesting fraud here, I really did buy a house thank you

The changes they made to the law with the extension now require the settlement statement/bill of closing as proof that you bought the house and when it was bought. I believe (but anyone who cares should check to be sure) that those changes became effective immediately, but don't effect anyone who had already closed and/or already re-filed their 2008 taxes to claim the credit.

slap me silly
Nov 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer
Gotcha. As usual my info is out of date. I was actually pretty surprised I didn't have to provide some kind of documentation.

Buckwheat Sings
Feb 9, 2005
I can't wait to see what happens when the commercial real estate crash hits not to mention watching the aftermath of the Arm Loan, Alt A crash that's going to come up sometime next year. I hope you guys are ready to see prices plummet yet again in the high priced markets.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Oh, it's worse than that. Job losses are putting a serious hurt on regular old fixed-rate prime mortgages too.

From The Mortgage Banker's Association Report, widely reported-on in the media yesterday:

quote:

...
The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure or at least one payment past due was 14.41 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the highest ever recorded in the MBA delinquency survey.
...
“Prime fixed-rate loans continue to represent the largest share of foreclosures started and the biggest driver of the increase in foreclosures. 33 percent of foreclosures started in the third quarter were on prime fixed-rate and loans and those loans were 44 percent of the quarterly increase in foreclosures. The foreclosure numbers for prime fixed-rate loans will get worse because those loans represented 54 percent of the quarterly increase in loans 90 days or more past due but not yet in foreclosure.

“The performance of prime adjustable rate loans, which include pay-option ARMs in the MBA survey, continue to deteriorate with the foreclosure rate on those loans for the first time exceeding the rate for subprime fixed-rate loans. In contrast, both subprime fixed-rate and subprime adjustable rate loans saw decreases in foreclosures.

...
“The outlook is that delinquency rates and foreclosure rates will continue to worsen before they improve. First, it is unlikely the employment picture will get better until sometime next year and even then jobs will increase at a very slow pace. Perhaps more importantly, there is no reason to expect that when the economy begins to add more jobs, those jobs will be in areas with the biggest excess housing inventory and the highest delinquency rates. Second, the number of loans 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure is now a little over 4 million as compared with 3.9 million new and previously occupied homes currently for sale, although there is likely some overlap between the two numbers. The ultimate resolution of these seriously delinquent loans will put added pressure on the hardest hit sections of the country.”

Basically, foreclosure rates on sub-prime loans are now decreasing. As predicted, rates on prime ARM and option-ARMs (and alt-As, although they're not mentioned as much) are increasing. But due to rising unemployment, prime, fixed-rate foreclosure rates are rapidly rising as well.

That said: according to Bloomburg today:

quote:

...
There are signs that parts of the U.S. are rebounding. California, among the states where the housing bust started, is one of the few areas that’s beginning to recover.

October home prices in Orange County, San Diego and the San Francisco Bay Area increased from a year earlier, MDA DataQuick, a San Diego property information service, said this week. The number of sales also increased in the Bay Area and Southern California.

This is why my situation (in the Bay Area) seems to be different than that of many other posters in this thread, and why blanket statements or advice about what the market's doing now, and going to do next year, are a bit foolish. Certainly there's a large risk still, but it's a different order of magnitude compared to the risk of buying a house in many other markets in the US right now.

skipdogg
Nov 29, 2004
Resident SRT-4 Expert

Leperflesh posted:


Basically, foreclosure rates on sub-prime loans are now decreasing. As predicted, rates on prime ARM and option-ARMs (and alt-As, although they're not mentioned as much) are increasing. But due to rising unemployment, prime, fixed-rate foreclosure rates are rapidly rising as well.

Unemployment is having a big effect, but don't discount the people strategically defaulting on mortgages as well. When you're paying 2200 a month for a house, and the exact same house is renting for 1350 a month across the street and you're over 100K underwater on your mortgage it's hard to argue against defaulting and going and renting somewhere for a few years.

The scary part is going to be all the 5 year ARM's bought in 2006/2007 that aren't going to reset until 2011/2012. This poo poo is far from over.

ndPunkOne
Aug 5, 2002

Feel weird posting this after the last couple scary posts, but it looks like I'll be closing 11/30. :ohdear:

Thanks to this thread for all of the interesting tips and guidance!

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Congrats, dude! Looks like we'll be within one week, either side of your date, most likely.

Have Some Flowers!
Aug 27, 2004
Hey, I've got Navigate...
Moana, I offered some advice that was added to the first few posts that may need to be updated. Since the time of that writing, I've moved on from working at a real estate brokerage to working for a consumer advocate group that trains Realtors to be better Realtors.

Here's what I would add to my contributions:

Have Some Flowers posted:

While you can lock in an interest rate at any time after you're approved, most of the time you will want to wait until you actually have a property under contract. The importance here is having a closing date in mind when you go to lock the rate.

When you lock in an interest rate, it is done for a certain amount of days and there's a cost associated with the length of the lock. Extending the lock is costly as well.

Unless you can say for sure that you are buying a house by a certain date -no matter what- (which is a bad way to buy), it's probably better to lock the rate once you're under contract. Getting the best rate is important, but not as important as getting the right house at the right price and performing due diligence with inspections.
Do know that once you're locked in, there are still ways to lower your rate. Some lenders offer a "Float Down" option, typically a one-time offer to lower the rate. Double check the terms, but typically these are good for the borrower.

If rates happen to drop after your lock, your mortgage broker can also switch to a different wholesale lender. They typically won't do this unless the change is drastic, because their rates go up if they do this too often. It makes sense - wholesale lenders give better pricing to mortgage brokers that are more consistent.

The biggest advice that I can offer here is to make sure you get your lock in writing. Ask for a Rate Lock Confirmation Letter. Some unscrupulous mortgage brokers will tell you they locked your rate at great terms while they continue to watch the market, hoping it reaches those terms. If the market never does, they'll probably drop this little bomb on you right before closing know that you won't be able to address it in time.

Regarding choosing a Realtor...

Have Some Flowers! posted:

If you aren't able to go with a reference from a friend, family member or coworker, you may have other sources to consider. Your loan officer may be able to refer someone. You may also be able to call up local title companies and ask their escrow officers who they've had consistently great experiences with.

If you do just pick someone at random, be careful about a few things. Your state may be one where exclusivity contracts are optional when working with agents. I'd recommend not signing one. If you sign one of those contracts and things go sour, you may not be able to work with another Realtor for months. In some cases, even if you find another property with another Realtor, the original one gets a cut of the commission. It's a headache.

In any event, I'd be clear with an agent up front with what you expect. You want frequent communication, regular showing appointments that accommodate your schedule, due diligence in the inspection of the home and a clean transaction. Any challenges/bumps/unexpected events should be explained ASAP with an idea of what to expect. I'd also set expectations about staying within your defined criteria.

Do realize that the best Realtors are also the busiest, so it may be tougher to schedule appointments with them. If you're interested primarily in a ready-to-go recently remodeled home, you may not need the best Realtor in town. You may just need one that's free to accommodate your schedule and who's hungry to work hard for you. If you're interested in fixer-upper or foreclosure/short sale options, I'd hold out for the most seasoned agent you can get.

I'm now taking referrals with a heavier grain of salt. I say this because it's unlikely that your friends or family properly vetted their Realtor before recommending them to you. Most people work with Realtors based on personality rather then competence. The entire profession is a joke, but there are some good Realtors out there for sure.

Make sure your prospective Buyer's Agent can satisfactorily answer these concerns:

    Can they help you analyze lenders and GFEs, and point out which fees are legitimate and which ones are junk?
    Do they have a plan for making sure your next home meets your lifestyle, financial and long-term investment needs?
    What is their availability like for viewing homes? What is their typical response time for communication?
    How can they help you analyze your costs of ownership and homeowner responsibilities?
    What is their negotiation strategy, both at the offer stage and the post-inspection repair negotiations stage?
    What process do they follow for performing due diligence when considering a home?
    What systems do they use to ensure a clean contract-to-close process?
    What do they offer you after the transaction to help your home ownership experience? Do they have a vendor referral network or any resources to help you when it comes to repairs or updates to your home?

moana
Jun 18, 2005

one of the more intellectual satire communities on the web
Thanks, added to the OP :)

Elendil004
Mar 22, 2003

The prognosis
is not good.


Apparently I have to wait to get a mortgage on my home which I bought cash. I guess I have to wait 6 months from closing date, which is loving stupid. Any idea if this rule is everywhere or is my bank just being asinine?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Elendil004 posted:

Apparently I have to wait to get a mortgage on my home which I bought cash. I guess I have to wait 6 months from closing date, which is loving stupid. Any idea if this rule is everywhere or is my bank just being asinine?

I dunno, but I would suggest talking with a mortgage broker, rather than only dealing with one bank directly. My mortgage broker has been excellent and found me a much better deal than I was able to find contacting three different banks directly for quotes.

Ultimate Mango
Jan 18, 2005

Welp, my house is now officially on the market for sale. Sign went out front this morning and its in the MLS, and its starting to show up on the various websites that take MLS feeds. We put a lot of effort into staging and making sure we put the best foot forward for showing.

Good news for us is that there is only 1-1.5 months inventory on the market in our area, and we should be one of the nicest homes like it on the market (great curb appeal, staged, clean, etc). We had two people look at the house before it went on the market, and expect one of them to make an offer. I just got a call asking to show it this evening (edit: two showings today), and we have a broker caravan Thursday morning and an open house on Sunday. With any luck it will move fast, even though its a terrible time of year to try to sell.

Bad news is now we have to get our act together and get pre-approved for a loan and start looking at homes. We have a sort of rough idea of where we want to look, and we have a great banker, we just have to really get going. At least the timing is good for the new credit, since we've owned and lived in this house for 8 years, and if my wife stops working next year we should eek in under the income requirement.

Am I totally insane for thinking that this might actually work?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

We signed final loan documents today. Should have the house by Friday!

I got 5.00% fixed on $236k, FHA with 3.5% down, no points. I was aiming for 5.25% so that's pretty sweet.

Mango - it took my wife and I six months to find this house. Other people seem to manage it in like a week or two. I guess for you the timing is going to be critical. Will you be able to live somewhere for a month or two, if you sell the house right away but don't find what you want for a little while? If I were in your position, my biggest worry would be wanting to accept an offer, but not having a house lined up yet and feeling pressured to 'just pick something' even if none of the going deals were attractive to you.

Ultimate Mango
Jan 18, 2005

Leperflesh posted:

We signed final loan documents today. Should have the house by Friday!

I got 5.00% fixed on $236k, FHA with 3.5% down, no points. I was aiming for 5.25% so that's pretty sweet.

Mango - it took my wife and I six months to find this house. Other people seem to manage it in like a week or two. I guess for you the timing is going to be critical. Will you be able to live somewhere for a month or two, if you sell the house right away but don't find what you want for a little while? If I were in your position, my biggest worry would be wanting to accept an offer, but not having a house lined up yet and feeling pressured to 'just pick something' even if none of the going deals were attractive to you.

Congratulations on the house.

We know that timing is critical, which is why we are aiming for a 45 day escrow on the sale and will include a 45 day rentback clause if we need it. We have a good agent to work with in our target area to buy, and I think once we go looking in the adjusted search area I think we'll be able to narrow in quickly. Our challenge is that we won't be able to go for any short sale listings, since those are apparently black hole timesinks and we just don't have that kind of time.

As for plan B, I guess we could live with her parents for a while, but with the baby coming in May, we don't have unlimited time to get settled...

TreFitty
Jan 18, 2003

Maybe I'm asking in the wrong place, but I think I'm a big fan of Manufactured Homes...or at least the idea of them. I can earn a pretty decent income, but shortly after University I found myself in a situation where I felt like I was going to work just to make ends meet and pay the bills. No extra leisure, travel, or nice things because I just had bills to pay.

After that experience (after getting in a better position) I never want to go there again in my life. Ever. For any reason. I quit my job that I had and moved to Korea where I'm now teaching English, traveling the region a little bit, and working on starting my own company on the side.

I've always been a fan of the idea of a manufactured home ever since taking a few Finance courses in my business coursework in University where I found out the fact that's on the front page (what you end up paying in the end if you have a mortgage). Now, having been here in Korea for over a year and living a much more modest life, I've decided that this is not only easier, but exactly what I want. I've never wanted a nice house. Something I do desire, however, is a lot of land, but I can deal with not having that.

With the money I will have saved when I go home from Korea in August of next year, I could buy one outright from my understanding. If I continued working for a couple of years after I could buy a really, really nice one. If I continued working for 10 years I could drat near retire with the kind of lifestyle I want to live.

My questions:
  • Are there any terrible costs to buying a manufactured home? Are closing costs big?
  • If I bought a house for $30K, are there hidden/rent type costs I just don't know about?
  • What are the downsides?
  • Why aren't more people buying these things?

...and so on. Anything you can add would be helpful.

edit: just re-read that. Sorry if it was hard to read, but I don't feel like going through and changing everything.

TreFitty fucked around with this message at 12:28 on Dec 3, 2009

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

There's a pretty good article on Marketwatch today about the state of the housing market, interest rates, and so forth.

Some highlights:

Marketwatch posted:

The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages fell for the fifth straight week to 4.71%, Freddie Mac said Thursday.
...
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com, said in an interview that two main catalysts are driving rates lower. First, the Federal Reserve has indicated it plans to keep short-term interest rates low for an extended period to help the economy along. The second factor is continued strong demand for government-issued debt despite fears that unprecedented spending to combat the financial crisis will eventually spark a bout of inflation.

"The demand is not just from other central banks buying Treasury bonds," the analyst said. "Institutional investors and hedge funds are looking to protect their year-to-date profits."
...
The Fed's program to buy up to $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities, which has been extended through the first quarter, has also contributed to easing rates. McBride estimated the Fed is buying about 80% of newly issued agency mortgage-backed securities.

"The Fed is not just a big fish in the pond -- it's the only fish in the pond," he said.

Meanwhile, more than 90% of all home loans this year have been purchased by government entities such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration.

This support has been keeping mortgage rates artificially low, but rates could jump when it is finally removed, some economists worry.

However, McBride thinks the Fed will extend its program to buy mortgage-backed securities to nurture the nascent recovery in the housing market.

"The Fed can't go from full speed to a dead stop in four months without a spike in interest rates," he said. "The economy is too fragile for the Fed to risk a rate spike."

McBride's not the only one taking a middle-ground approach as far as predicting the market for the next year:

Marketwatch posted:

In the home-building industry, there is little consensus on the outlook for housing.

"It's been a tough four years," said Larry Nicholson, chief executive of Ryland Group Inc., at the recent UBS Building & Building Products CEO Conference. "Hopefully, I believe we are at the bottom of this thing, and I think that business will start to pick up sometime next year."

However, others are less sanguine on the market's health.

"There is a lot of talk right now about the fact that the housing market has stabilized and is in recovery," said Lennar Corp. CEO Stuart Miller.

Yet the builder hasn't seen "clear evidence" of that, with the unemployment rate around 10%. "In fact, our experience would indicate that there's much, much more of a rocky bottom than we're hearing about in the press," Miller said.

"For the time being, we're certainly not facing the notions of Armageddon that we were feeling six months ago, but at the same time we have to be aware that the 'stabilization' that we've seen so far is tenuous at best," he said.

To me, there's five factors interplaying here:
-The mortgage rate. Cheap loans stimulate buying
-The existing inventory, especially of foreclosed homes. The so-called "shadow inventory", if it materializes on the market, could raise inventory and thereby lower prices... but if it doesn't, dwindling inventory will tend to support prices.
-New housing starts. The market is watching homebuilders very carefully. When inventory gets low enough - and stays low - in key markets, housing starts will rise to meet the anticipated future demand. That will indicate to the market that the recovery is well on its way, because those builders will not want to gamble on housing starts until they're fairly certain there's light at the end of the tunnel.
-The homebuyer tax credit, which is supporting prices and stimulating sales, to some (debatable) degree
-Unemployment, which is causing delinquencies (especially among prime loans) and suppressing buying.

The homebuyer's credit was extended, but it's going to expire in the spring, and there does not seem to be much prospect for extending it beyond that. It makes sense: support prices through the slowest season, and then when the buying season starts in again in the late spring, (hopefully) recovery will be taking place enough to prevent a sudden sharp drop in prices (which would drive more delinquency).
The mortgage rates are likely to remain low as long as there is uncertainty and fear, because fear and uncertainty drives institutional investors into 10-year T-bills, and that lowers interest rates. When those investors become confident enough in the economy to re-invest in stocks, they'll sell t-bills, bond prices fall, yields go up, and mortgage rates will rise. This will, perhaps ironically, put downward pressure on housing sales because even with low prices, rising rates cause mortgage payments to rise dramatically.

Unemployment is a trailing indicator. It tends to bottom out and begin to get better only 12 to 18 months after a recovery begins, because employers prefer to run underhanded when recovery is uncertain, only making permanent hires when they're certain they'll have good enough sales to support them.

Therefore, an improving economy with lagging employment, rising interest rates, expiring tax credit, and a lot of unsold inventory spells major price declines... but not necessarily good deals for the hesitant buyer (because of the rising rates). On the other hand, an improving economy with good housing starts, conservative investors sticking to t-bills and therefore low mortgage rates prevalant, and a surge in inventory as the "shadow inventory" gets bled back onto the market, could spell lots of great deals for the home buyer.

Kinda hard to tell, right now!

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 22:05 on Dec 3, 2009

Dik Hz
Feb 22, 2004

Fun with Science

Leperflesh posted:

The mortgage rates are likely to remain low as long as there is uncertainty and fear, because fear and uncertainty drives institutional investors into 10-year T-bills, and that lowers interest rates. When those investors become confident enough in the economy to re-invest in stocks, they'll sell t-bills, bond prices fall, yields go up, and mortgage rates will rise. This will, perhaps ironically, put downward pressure on housing sales because even with low prices, rising rates cause mortgage payments to rise dramatically.
With the government effectively increasing the money supply, we're going to see inflation. This will lead to higher interest rates regardless if the economy improves or not.

Now is a great time to buy a house if you plan on living in it for a long time, due to the low interest rates. Now is a horrible time to buy a house if you're planning on selling in 3-5 years, for all other reasons you pointed out.

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Uuudar
Apr 18, 2003

Dik Hz posted:

plan on living in it for a long time

I see people say this a decent amount, but what does "a long time" generally mean in terms of years?

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