|
Goddamn, GE pisses the hell out of me sometimes. Its a good company, but is completely the VIX's bitch. Once people get antsy, it tanks like crazy...
|
#
?
Apr 30, 2010 20:03
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 17, 2024 22:27 |
|
|
anyone have any plays for the oil spill being worse than people expect? BP probably owns its own chemical "detergent" manufacturers? There doesnt seem to be any sort of proprietary chemical to clean up oil in any case... US govt is supplying the manpower. Who else is going to benefit?
|
|
#
?
Apr 30, 2010 20:09
|
|
|
Ultimately no one really benefits unless you're short RIG/BP. In the end the oil lost is a negligible amount of supply in the world market which is why you haven't seen crude fall a ton. Am I the only one who really likes down market days? Seeing the high beta stocks get crushed is exciting. Those jerks at schwab made CREE hard to borrow though, so I'm stuck maneuvering around my short position with options. Although a few more days like this and it will have hit my profit targets. At least CRM still has a way to go and it isn't hard to borrow so I can just add there when CREE is over. I also like SLG short here and WYNN.
|
|
#
?
Apr 30, 2010 20:16
|
|
|
Baddog posted:anyone have any plays for the oil spill being worse than people expect? http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/04/30/tragic-opportunity/
|
|
#
?
Apr 30, 2010 20:24
|
|
|
^^^ nice blog, very anecdotal style, i like it. I'll be the first to admit I bot GS at 152 three days ago. My mistake was not selling it yesterday for 8 bucks profit$$$. Other dumb mistakes include an attempt to short silver around 18 as measured by SLV. Someone asked about dividend producing stocks, MO is great. Best time to enter is right after dividend, but that's a bit late. The biggest risk obviously is introduction of tobacco legislation, but the admin is a little tied up with other issues right now. I'd like to get into BP bc i <3 dividends, but as I just talked about with falling knives, I might wait a bit.
|
|
#
?
Apr 30, 2010 20:46
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:Are you really posting just to reply to yourself with brags about trades? Really? Its a long standing tradition of this thread
|
|
#
?
Apr 30, 2010 20:59
|
|
|
If it makes you feel better I can lament about my shorts from late April '08 until present!
|
|
#
?
Apr 30, 2010 21:08
|
|
|
I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/04/30/tragic-opportunity/ nice thanks!
|
|
#
?
Apr 30, 2010 21:10
|
|
|
Cheesemaster200 posted:I will find it hilarious if this GS witch hunt backfires on these politicians. This whole Goldman ordeal may be the first time some of these politicians are actually getting to know how Wall Street works and it is making them look like morons to a great deal of people. They are utilizing so many resources to try and nail Goldman Sachs to the cross while leaving the actual system unchanged and it's tanking the markets. Goldman will probably at worst put up a fall guy and that's it. That will only be necessary because at this point the government is going to find something, anything. Whatever they end up deciding to "find" will be so trumped up it will be ridiculous. Goldman Sachs as a company has way too many political ties the world over to just get yelled at and spit on by some poo poo kicking politician trying to appeal to populist sentiment so he can get re-elected. It reminds me of the Godfather 2 when that senator tries to play tough and by the end he is giving some long winded speech of praise about Italian Americans. Goldman and Wall Street has more power than a lot of individuals in the government and for people who probably only got into politics so they could be the most powerful people in the world that must be very sobering to realize. Jack posted:Am I the only one who really likes down market days? I love them, though more because the CEO of Coca Cola slips on a banana peel and the shares of Johnson and Johnson or some other unrelated company magically tank giving me good entry points. Jabbu fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Apr 30, 2010 |
|
#
?
Apr 30, 2010 22:12
|
|
|
Jack posted:Am I the only one who really likes down market days? Seeing the high beta stocks get crushed is exciting. I like volatile days, and I liked today until around 3:00. But I don't have any shorts right now and I probably should. BONT actually looks like a good one, even if I hold their bonds.
|
|
#
?
Apr 30, 2010 22:49
|
|
|
Jabbu posted:This whole Goldman ordeal may be the first time some of these politicians are actually getting to know how Wall Street works and it is making them look like morons to a great deal of people. They are utilizing so many resources to try and nail Goldman Sachs to the cross while leaving the actual system unchanged and it's tanking the markets. Goldman will probably at worst put up a fall guy and that's it. That will only be necessary because at this point the government is going to find something, anything. Whatever they end up deciding to "find" will be so trumped up it will be ridiculous. That and I think people forget that money > ideals. Yeah, 10-15% of the population is unemployed, but for the other 90-85% of the population poo poo is starting to pick up, their stock and retirement accounts are in the black, and they don't like it when they lose 3% on their portfolio because some idiot in Washington wants to grandstand. Also: INTC has been bouncing around at support all day today, I think it would be a good buy if you aren't into the whole weekend sovereign credit meltdown theory. Cheesemaster200 fucked around with this message at 23:44 on Apr 30, 2010 |
|
#
?
Apr 30, 2010 23:39
|
|
|
Cheesemaster200 posted:What do you think are the possible outcomes over in Europe to that mess? Its a currency crisis. EU breaks up or milks the IMF for as many loans as it can. You just have debt melting up to a bigger player till they can't afford it and it goes up a level. Common person -> Bank -> Government -> Currency Zone -> ??? My theory is thinking we'll get to where the EU can't rape germany for more money and the citizens get pissed off enough and the EU just breaks up. The same thing will happen crisis wise in the US but because of a centralized currency maker with the Fed, and the fed basically floating loans to the ECB at this moment, we get the fun part of printing our debt onto others and making them pay us for it, so it will give us more time and control of the rules. It is a mess and a place I can't even predict the outcome to be.
|
|
#
?
Apr 30, 2010 23:47
|
|
|
This thread is a hell of a resource, and I thank all who have contributed. I'm in Baghdad right now with nothing to spend my money on, so what a great opportunity to build some first-hand market experience. I feel like I've established enough of a base to build upon. Right now I'm using Google Finance which has been great for rapid pace research from many angles, and Google Reader as my general/tech/science/market news aggregation tool. I just bought some DYAI (definitely should've waited for it to drop a bit though I think). Think there's any validity to this article? http://streetauthority.com/a/two-billion-dollar-news-stories-no-one-even-noticed-1286 Either way I think it's a solid trade. Chinese solar and wind look to be safe rides during China's renewable energy initiatives, but I don't want to spread too far on hyped industries, at least until I can figure out which companies will be able to manage integration of new technologies. synftw fucked around with this message at 07:45 on May 1, 2010 |
|
#
?
May 1, 2010 06:44
|
|
|
synftw posted:Chinese solar and wind look to be safe rides during China's renewable energy initiatives, but I don't want to spread too far on hyped industries, at least until I can figure out which companies will be able to manage integration of new technologies. You should've seen the piece CNBC did on that a few days ago. I believe China's renewable energy whether it's sustainable or not it will be funded by the government for at least another year or two just so they can meet the goals that they setup a few years back. They spend money these kind of projects like water until they meet some magic number. The problem would be with seeing if at that point the solar/wind industry would be able to use the time they buy through the government to gain momentum in the private market.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2010 09:42
|
|
|
Christobevii3 posted:Its a currency crisis. EU breaks up or milks the IMF for as many loans as it can. You just have debt melting up to a bigger player till they can't afford it and it goes up a level. Common person -> Bank -> Government -> Currency Zone -> ??? Comparing the euro with the dollar is like comparing apples and pears in my opinion. The USA is a single country with 50 different states in it and all of them use the dollar. The EU is not a country but has 27 memberstates of which 16 use the euro. Between the euro members and non-euro countries there's a world of difference and each has their own economy and when push comes to shove, its gonna be protectionism. I may not know everything about the USA, but I have never heard of US states resorting to protectionism like Germany and France do. In the USA, the Fed can inflate the currency to the value of wet newspaper rags. In the EU the ECB cannot do this. It needs authorization by the European Commission for just about everything. The EU debt problems are very easy to solve if the ECB is allowed to start a massive purchasing program of EU government bonds and starts to issue a EU or Barosso bond. However, many memberstates oppose this idea because its essentially using the better credit score of the creditors in the north to haul the PIIGs out of the financial morass they're in. The EU is never ever going to break up because people are fed up with it. In 2005 there was a referendum in France and the Netherlands about the EU Constitution. Guess what? It was rejected by a large majority. What did Europe do? Removed a few non-issues like flag and EU anthem and changed the name of the Constitution to 'Lisbon Treaty' and kindly asked parliaments not to hold referendums anymore. And so it happened. Ireland was an exception to this rule but in the end it didn't matter. The EU is only going to collapse under the weight of too much debt when it no longer has the political will (or monetary means) to bail out weak states. It's highly unlikely any of the PIIGs are going to leave the euro. It's not in their best interest and leaving the euro means the PIIGs no longer have access to combined EC/IMF help. Germany leaving the currency union would be more logical if its going to cost them more money to sustain the euro than abandoning the monetary experiment. Germany has a tradition of retaining a strong euro. In early 2008 it was the Germans who decided it was time to raise ECB interest rates just a few months before the global economy collapsed. If anyone believes the ECB is a European organisation, please don't believe it. It's a German insitution headquartered in Frankfurt and they're in charge of monetary policy. Anything that threatens the strength of the euro is vetoed by Germany. I think the contagion has already spread no matter what politicians or people in high places say. If anyone has gone to Spain recently the evidence is everywhere. Construction is completely in the shitter, unemployment is higher than 20% (Spain is a champion when it comes to using vague exemptions to calculate unemployment). Greece is completely corrupt, tax collection is more a joke than serious business and one third of the country's economy is public sector. Belgium isn't a country anymore with a parliament that collapses as frequent as a bell that tolls on the hour. And, fun fact, Belgium spends tax money even less efficient than Greece... If that isn't a sign something is horribly wrong I don't know what is. Portugal has been plugging one hole with another, piling debt onto earlier debt to pay off other debts. If it isn't debt contagion we're talking about, then at least we can all agree financial stupidity and reckless spending is contagious. HighClassSwankyTime fucked around with this message at 10:22 on May 1, 2010 |
|
#
?
May 1, 2010 10:05
|
|
|
Jacques LeVert, the greece bail out is a bail out of the French and German banks, we all know that now. So it is obvious why it is going to occur.. UK will lose their AAA rating in the next couple of weeks and will slowly show their debt issues spill out in the public. When that occurs its too big for the EU or the IMF to "bailout." What is the plan there? Don't forget the IMF is basically a branch of the Fed to print more money. I understand the US is a solid unit money policy wise, but there is a point where you can only roll so much debt into the market. The treasury purchases aren't quite getting all sold anymore, you'll see when they panic by a failed treasury by calling another auction immediately since the dealers have to buy a certain amount to be a dealer. If you start reading who is buying the treasurys you'll see there are some comically made up locations of buyers now.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2010 16:22
|
|
|
Jacques LeVert posted:f it isn't debt contagion we're talking about, then at least we can all agree financial stupidity and reckless spending is contagious. Post more (here).
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2010 16:47
|
|
|
Christobevii3 posted:Jacques LeVert, the greece bail out is a bail out of the French and German banks, we all know that now. So it is obvious why it is going to occur.. UK will lose their AAA rating in the next couple of weeks and will slowly show their debt issues spill out in the public. When that occurs its too big for the EU or the IMF to "bailout." What is the plan there? Don't forget the IMF is basically a branch of the Fed to print more money. Yeah we don't want our favorite European banks to go under because of a Greek tragedy... And it's not like the Germans have any qualms with spending a lot of money on bailouts, the Hypo Real Estate one in particular cost around € 100 bn if I recall correctly. However, that was easy to sell to the gullible masses in the interest of saving the financial system from a complete implosion. Imagine if politicians today said "We don't care about Greece, we're just saving our banks by proxy!" Won't happen and thats why this Greek bailout is a lot more difficult to manage and sell to the public. If the US gov comes to the point where it must make a choice to monetize their debt or face the humiliation of weak appetite for US treasuries, the US will go with the first no questions asked. I wonder if we're past that point already where it begins on a large scale. The UK has already passed that point and they're not even being secret about it. UK losing their AAA rating is a matter of time and my guess is the ratings agencies are waiting until after the elections. Maybe a few skeletons come out of the closet that'll be a nice primer for things to come.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2010 16:50
|
|
|
Also, last monday was one of the first down mondays in a while. Closing on the lows friday and all the junk in the news, we should finally break the melt up on low volume trend. I'll wait in cash for things to pick the direction though. Heh, Greece just hired a sovereign debt restructuring expert. Christobevii3 fucked around with this message at 22:00 on May 1, 2010 |
|
#
?
May 1, 2010 20:40
|
|
|
What's the thread's take on Samsung potentially glutting the chip market and its effect on INTC?
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2010 04:42
|
|
|
fougera posted:What's the thread's take on Samsung potentially glutting the chip market and its effect on INTC? Are you talking nand chips i'm assuming? INTC is ahead in the 28mm race it seems and sandisk. It seems all the chips are on backorder for ram makers too, so I don't see a huge issue.
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2010 04:56
|
|
|
Christobevii3 posted:Are you talking nand chips i'm assuming? INTC is ahead in the 28mm race it seems and sandisk. It seems all the chips are on backorder for ram makers too, so I don't see a huge issue. I think he was talking about the new Phase Memory Chips that's hitting the market... well for small devices.
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2010 05:48
|
|
|
By the way, I'd try to avoid tobacco stocks for a while until the whole plain packaging thing from Australia dies down a bit. If one thing kills tobacco consumption and subtle promotion fo' real its plain packaging. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63R16920100428 link for story
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2010 09:21
|
|
|
PsychoAndy posted:I'd like to get into BP bc i <3 dividends, but as I just talked about with falling knives, I might wait a bit.
|
|
#
?
May 3, 2010 16:24
|
|
|
Chinese solar is exploding today, looks like because of earnings dates coming up.
|
|
#
?
May 3, 2010 18:53
|
|
|
Why the sudden boost today? IMF bailout or did the market just get tired of going down again?
|
|
#
?
May 3, 2010 22:29
|
|
|
Duey posted:Why the sudden boost today? IMF bailout or did the market just get tired of going down again? Volatility is still relatively high, there was a big airline merger, new was pretty good today and the Europe issue hasn't really gotten worse (or better). I think we are going to see a lot of see-sawing between good earnings and economic indicators domestically and Europe blowing up in the coming weeks.
|
|
#
?
May 3, 2010 22:34
|
|
|
What's the best way of dodging a run on the pound on Friday?
|
|
#
?
May 3, 2010 22:38
|
|
|
Covered my euro short on the expectation that when Europe opens tomorrow EUR will catch bids. It'll be a slow grind but I anticipate a correction of this correction.Dr. Eldarion posted:Dropped quite a bit again today. I'm really itching to pull the trigger on it. In retrospect RIG was/is probably the better buy since I don't believe they have liability and the actual platform is probably insured. The problem is that I am heavily blinded by BPs hot hot dividend action.
|
|
#
?
May 3, 2010 22:41
|
|
|
Duey posted:Why the sudden boost today? IMF bailout or did the market just get tired of going down again? Take you pick- market holidays in Japan and the UK, increased consumer spending, first day of May is usually up, better than expected auto sales, some bullshit data-mining stat about the VIX over 20 after Berkshire announces and the 10-year is below 3.7...
|
|
#
?
May 3, 2010 23:52
|
|
|
Duey posted:Why the sudden boost today? IMF bailout or did the market just get tired of going down again? They're claiming Warren Buffett saying nice things about Goldman Sachs helped it out... In reality the bail out probably helped and I think people are getting in gear for retail earnings reports, which if I had to guess probably won't be too bad. Edit: Seems I was late to the party. Jabbu fucked around with this message at 00:26 on May 4, 2010 |
|
#
?
May 4, 2010 00:17
|
|
|
PsychoAndy posted:In retrospect RIG was/is probably the better buy since I don't believe they have liability and the actual platform is probably insured. The problem is that I am heavily blinded by BPs hot hot dividend action.
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2010 00:48
|
|
|
Is thinkorswim generally considered the best options broker? I don't need anything fancy. Just a couple speculative OTM calls and puts here and there.
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2010 06:04
|
|
|
Josh Lyman posted:Is thinkorswim generally considered the best options broker? I don't need anything fancy. Just a couple speculative OTM calls and puts here and there. I like them, but I haven't traded with anyone else. It takes a bit to get familiar with their software so definitely paper trade with it first.
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2010 11:58
|
|
|
Chirp Chirp? I guess most goons are still bulls. Neener bitches! Of course somehow some way some magical bullcrap will occur to lift the markets some more and make them go sideways or something for a few months. Holy crap! Is that where the term bullshit came from?
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2010 14:53
|
|
|
PsychoAndy posted:In retrospect RIG was/is probably the better buy since I don't believe they have liability and the actual platform is probably insured. The problem is that I am heavily blinded by BPs hot hot dividend action. Only thing a dividend means is that the stock price has further to fall when they cut the dividend in order to pay for cleanup.
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2010 14:55
|
|
|
ayekappy posted:Chirp Chirp? I guess most goons are still bulls. Neener bitches! Of course somehow some way some magical bullcrap will occur to lift the markets some more and make them go sideways or something for a few months. Holy crap! Is that where the term bullshit came from? godamn should've closed my positions until next month since we all know Greece is going to make the market poo poo itself until further notice. I would love to close all positions and wait until Q2 earning or some great news about Europe's debt program. Where is that person who closed their shorts on the Euro?
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2010 15:02
|
|
|
ayekappy posted:Chirp Chirp? I guess most goons are still bulls. Neener bitches! Of course somehow some way some magical bullcrap will occur to lift the markets some more and make them go sideways or something for a few months. Holy crap! Is that where the term bullshit came from? or its only 10:00AM?
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2010 15:21
|
|
|
Dr. Jackal posted:godamn should've closed my positions until next month since we all know Greece is going to make the market poo poo itself until further notice.  i'm still short silver/long treasuries. but i honestly thought that the euro would catch a bid today bc I think it's way oversold. Additionally, on Fast Money last Friday, Dennis Gartman basically said for johnny retail to buy GLD and sell FXE. I don't disagree with this idea (personally I prefer long sterling/short euro than being a goldbug) but I also don't like trades getting too crowded. Ultimately though, I prob shouldn't worry as much, considering how much the dollar kept dropping last year even though everyone was short the dxy. Euro goes down forever is the new Dollar goes down forever trade.
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2010 15:35
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 17, 2024 22:27 |
|
|
As of the opening of business this morning, Vanguard Brokerage Services got out of the stone age and became a hell of a lot more competitive. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/commissions-05042010
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2010 15:43
|
|
