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mindphlux posted:you could do my stock URRE either way. I'm honestly split myself. I would bet you serious money that it (it's at like 2.43) goes to hit about 1.5 sometime within the next month or so, or hits like 3.5-4. it's done like crazy 100% gains in the last week or two, which is really not normal, and after the crazy poo poo dies down it'll settle somewhere (higher or lower, gently caress knows)  Thanks for the tip!  Unfortunately, the competition ended earlier than I thought it would so I still finished 50k behind the winner. Now if only I had bought 40,000 real shares...
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Dec 3, 2010 20:10
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| # ? May 17, 2024 12:05 |
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okay guys, THIS is the top of gold, i swear!!!!!!!! 
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Dec 3, 2010 23:40
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abagofcheetos posted:okay guys, THIS is the top of gold, i swear!!!!!!!! AHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA own AEM also the Short seller on CNBC today, gooood he sounded so bitter.
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Dec 4, 2010 01:02
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Dr. Jackal posted:AHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA own AEM Why is that a surprise?
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Dec 4, 2010 01:34
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lightpole posted:Why is that a surprise? I would've thought he would've been more calm and less bitter sounding. Would you go on national TV and act extremely bitter or would you rather go on national TV to make a calm statement about the feasibility of the company that you are shorting to justify that you aren't getting screwed because the market is being weird? He could also be bitter than if you basically shorted anything in the last 6 months you would be at a loss.... It didn't help that the two hosts were basically taunting him about the short position. But he was right today after all, NFLX down 12% since it's highs 2 days ago... but then NFLX has basically done this pattern of hitting all-time highs, then making GBS threads on itself for 10%, trades in range for 1,2 weeks, and rocketing back over all-time highs over a week... You really have to question NFLX's feasibility in a year when everyone will have a way to stream while ISP are demanding more and more money for transport. Yet I still have a position in NFLX :| and it hurts sooo much
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Dec 4, 2010 02:36
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 As long as we're posting graphs. Everything I've invested in has been posted here. I bought into TSTC and a very small holding of TDGI ($500, just for kicks) on Wednesday. The x-axis corresponds to months of 2010. Big winners for me were GNVC, ALXA, LCI, AMRN, CADX, BIOD, BNVI, PAL destructo fucked around with this message at 03:15 on Dec 4, 2010 |
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Dec 4, 2010 03:12
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I've been trying to figure out credit spreads. I know there are a few experienced options traders in here, any comments would be appreciated. Some things I'm interested in learning to do better: -How to judge whether to close a winning trade for ~.30-.50, say, or let it run out worthless. (If I let a credit spread expire worthless, will I still pay commissions? Will I get my margin on the spread back immediately at expiration?) -How much of the bid/ask should I put in my favor when initiating or exiting a trade? I would like to eventually build a strategy that mimics reasonably predictable risk/reward levels similar to an insurance policy, only in large liquid stocks. In short, is it better to risk $500 on a bull put/bear call spread that's worth .50, 1.00, or even 2-3.00? Is there a statistical area where certain premiums are more likely to finish out of the money?
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Dec 4, 2010 05:13
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lazybrain posted:-How to judge whether to close a winning trade for ~.30-.50, say, or let it run out worthless. (If I let a credit spread expire worthless, will I still pay commissions? Will I get my margin on the spread back immediately at expiration?) Options are executed at the end of the day at the price of execution, you incur trading fees normally associated with trading the option. If they expire worthless the options incur no additional fees/commission for expiration. You will get your margin back on that day, but margin rate (for the margin used to buy the underlying stock) will exist until the trade settles (3 business days later). How badly do you want the option? that is how much you pay for an option. In the money you pay: difference + time value. out of the money you pay: time value. Where the time value is a function of volatility of the underlying stock and the general sentiment of the market (aka bullish stocks demands higher call prices etc). lazybrain posted:I would like to eventually build a strategy that mimics reasonably predictable risk/reward levels similar to an insurance policy, only in large liquid stocks. In short, is it better to risk $500 on a bull put/bear call spread that's worth .50, 1.00, or even 2-3.00? Is there a statistical area where certain premiums are more likely to finish out of the money? GL with that
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Dec 4, 2010 09:40
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What is everyone's thoughts on silver? I noticed a decent amount of you hold SLV in your portfolio, but does anyone think it still has room to grow? Read an article arguing for its further increase due to a fundamental change in its value when associated with gold's price http://seekingalpha.com/article/239972-investing-in-silver-in-2011?source=hp_editors_picks
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Dec 5, 2010 02:01
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MentosMan posted:What is everyone's thoughts on silver? I noticed a decent amount of you hold SLV in your portfolio, but does anyone think it still has room to grow? Articles saying that exact same thing have been common for the last 6 months or so. Whether you buy in now or not just depends on whether you think you are too late to the party or not
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Dec 5, 2010 02:35
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Anyone here have any experience with OptionsHouse? 2.95 stock trades is the lowest I've seen.
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Dec 5, 2010 17:26
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The Good posted:Anyone here have any experience with OptionsHouse? 2.95 stock trades is the lowest I've seen. I don't have a complaint about their customer service, trade desk, etc., but their applications and research tools are very subpar.
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Dec 5, 2010 20:13
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The Good posted:Anyone here have any experience with OptionsHouse? 2.95 stock trades is the lowest I've seen. Interactive Broker is "cheaper" if you trade in sub-300 shares per trade.
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Dec 6, 2010 03:23
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fougera posted:I don't have a complaint about their customer service, trade desk, etc., but their applications and research tools are very subpar. Yeah, I opened an account and everything before discovering how horrid their interface was. I opened up an account at Tradeking instead, which is much, much better and well worth the extra two bucks per trade.
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Dec 6, 2010 22:41
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drat! Is gold ever going to stop? I feel like we are reaching a bubble. Edit: Seriously, I have everyday strangers I meet through doing my daily activities telling me to buy gold right now several times a week. AbsentMindedWelder fucked around with this message at 01:47 on Dec 7, 2010 |
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Dec 7, 2010 01:43
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dv6speed posted:drat! Is gold ever going to stop? I feel like we are reaching a bubble.
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Dec 7, 2010 01:50
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Why not? It worked in 2007.
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Dec 7, 2010 02:00
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Every time Bernanke goes on the news and says he's going to have to do more QE, gold gets another boost. I doubt I'll be getting out of PMs anytime before the QE gravy train ends.
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Dec 7, 2010 02:02
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Until the US economy gets better & the situation in Europe is resolved it is much easier for gold to rise than fall
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Dec 7, 2010 02:12
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The dollar is dead and the Euro has structural problems if small countries like Ireland and Portugal can sink them. I really don't get the gold love though. If anything I'd buy food commodities because at least you know they turn into food rather than just some heavy brick. As far as currencies go the euro and the dollar are in a race to 0 so you really can't trade them vs each other. The only really pair that should hold up is the RMB but even thats manipulated by the Chinese. The stock market will fall off a cliff when the free money spigot from the fed turns off or oil hits $120 and sinks the economy again. But at the rate that is going it could be 300% from here and you'd be killed as a short. Commodities sort of have the same problem as the market, when the money spigot turns off rates probably go up and the dollar soars and commodities fall. Really the only option I see as remotely feasible is shorting the 30 year because yields will eventually soar. If not due to inflation then due to the deficit becoming a problem. The most risky play is probably long equities right now. A lot of those tech names sure have a lot of shares they'll need to sell and when they start to sell the bid is going to be absolutely non-existant, especially with so many tech names trading at 7-10x P/S.
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Dec 7, 2010 03:08
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unixbeard posted:Until the US economy gets better & the situation in Europe is resolved it is much easier for gold to rise than fall I believe more the opposite. Whether the US economy gets better or worse PM's will rise, the only thing that can hurt the PM rally are austerity measures. Austerity is unlikely in the US with Democrats and the Fed against them. Likely to happen in the EU as with the willingness to condemn to the PIGS to a death spiral of austerity and debt in order to save the Euro. The developing world will always out consume any austerity measures even if they tried to enact them(this is what people are banking on). I am not too worried about Gold bubbling as there is such a large supply. I would be more worried about the less precious than gold market showing weakness beforehand. Especially those without a large demand for industrial uses. owDAWG fucked around with this message at 03:32 on Dec 7, 2010 |
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Dec 7, 2010 03:22
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I think the gold bubble will fall when the fed starts to raise rates (ie. not anytime soon)
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Dec 7, 2010 04:13
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dv6speed posted:drat! Is gold ever going to stop? I feel like we are reaching a bubble. buy gold. Cheesemaster200 posted:I think the gold bubble will fall when the fed starts to raise rates (ie. not anytime soon) This is as likely to happen as the Fed wants the Lost-Decade syndrome for the US economy. We will have few more years of low rates until inflation hits the fan and we have the poo poo on our economy again. so... buy gold? Where would you run if Gold is in a bubble, Dollar and the Euro is devaluing each other into a hole. Yuan get's shat on because no one is able/want to buy goods from China? Rupee? Francs? Yen? I wish the US stuck to the gold standard 
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Dec 7, 2010 04:29
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Dr. Jackal posted:buy gold.
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Dec 7, 2010 04:39
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Stocks? Probably why the equities market has been doing surprisingly well considering the situation. There is nowhere else to put your money.... Yeah bubble economies are really scary to invest in. This one especially so, as there is literally no safe place to park your money, including under the mattress, heh. Stocks are obviously way ahead of the real economy, gold is obviously a bubble, but that knowledge doesn't help you win. It's like knowing real estate was a bubble in 2003. Fat lot of good that did you. Who knows when all this will unravel and exactly how it will play out. Ugh.
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Dec 7, 2010 06:11
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dv6speed posted:drat! Is gold ever going to stop? I feel like we are reaching a bubble. Wait for the economy to improve before donning the smug. And you will don the smug.
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Dec 7, 2010 18:57
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DancingMachine posted:Stocks are obviously way ahead of the real economy, gold is obviously a bubble, but that knowledge doesn't help you win. It's like knowing real estate was a bubble in 2003. Fat lot of good that did you. Who knows when all this will unravel and exactly how it will play out. Ugh. I disagree, recognizing a bubble certainly can help you. It can help you from investing out of emotion or fear (of missing out). People I talk to about the Great Recession usually hear the same remark from me: A lot of people should have learned a lot of hard lessons from all this. What I learned from the real estate bubble (that I should have deduced from the .com bubble but wasn't personally invested at the time) is that with discipline, you can stay your hand, wait for prices to come back down, then invest for the long term and sell to the next batch of suckers when the economy goes to poo poo again. Gold still has room to grow but it is generally in the vestiges of its meteoric rise if you look at it from a long-term perspective. The best time to buy gold is when the economy is doing well. My personal takeaway from the real estate pop is that I may not be wealthy enough, savvy enough, or have the right connections in order to cash in on the next Big Hot Thing, but I certainly can discipline myself to hold off until the inevitable correction occurs, then swoop in and buy for the long-term. edit: this is more relevant to the Long Term Investing megathread Suave Fedora fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Dec 7, 2010 |
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Dec 7, 2010 19:18
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Orgasmo posted:I may not be wealthy enough, savvy enough, or have the right connections in order to cash in on the next Big Hot Thing, but I certainly can discipline myself to hold off until the inevitable correction occurs, then swoop in and buy for the long-term. This. I'm missing out on any moves the market makes right now because it's simply trading on the idea that money will pour into it because it's less bad than other investments currently appear to be. I am not comfortable putting my money on the line based on this, and am waiting for the inevitable pullback. I don't know when that's going to happen, but I do fully intend to remain very cash heavy either until that pullback happens, or the economy has turned around enough to justify the current market's prices on a fundamental basis.
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Dec 7, 2010 20:05
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Midget Mafia posted:This. I'm missing out on any moves the market makes right now because it's simply trading on the idea that money will pour into it because it's less bad than other investments currently appear to be. I am not comfortable putting my money on the line based on this, and am waiting for the inevitable pullback. I don't know when that's going to happen, but I do fully intend to remain very cash heavy either until that pullback happens, or the economy has turned around enough to justify the current market's prices on a fundamental basis. Why not invest in commodities?
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Dec 7, 2010 20:10
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Once again shorting the 30 year is the best play. Even after today's bond slaughter it is only the beginning. The bond market will look like the 2007-2008 equity markets in my opinion. Furthermore I suspect eventually equity markets will not be able to ignore the higher cost of capital that is coming. But equity markets have a habit of remaining stubborn for a long time.
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Dec 7, 2010 20:15
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The trouble is that I knew that housing was a bubble, and I thought I constructed my portfolio with that in mind. However, I was under the impression that a real estate crash would be limited to sectors that were actually exposed to real estate, and so the situation would be contained, just as the dot com collapse seems to have been largely contained in the dot com and telecom sectors. Sadly, it's not easy construct a portfolio that has no exposure to the economy of the civilized world. As for the current bubble, I just finished Keynes' General Theory and I've come to the conclusion that we've hit one of his societal limits where supply and demand for investment vehicles has become decoupled from actually providing for future consumption. So, unless we embark on a grand program of building pyramids and cathedrals (his examples, not mine), we are just going to see wealth moving from asset class bubble to asset class bubble for the foreseeable future. But I'll save the rest for the Laissez-Faire forum.
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Dec 7, 2010 20:15
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Hobologist posted:The trouble is that I knew that housing was a bubble, and I thought I constructed my portfolio with that in mind. However, I was under the impression that a real estate crash would be limited to sectors that were actually exposed to real estate, and so the situation would be contained, just as the dot com collapse seems to have been largely contained in the dot com and telecom sectors. Sadly, it's not easy construct a portfolio that has no exposure to the economy of the civilized world. Thats true, but you need to decide which aspect of the civilized economy you want exposure to when the equity bubble is popping. See: bonds.
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Dec 7, 2010 22:27
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Nifty posted:Thats true, but you need to decide which aspect of the civilized economy you want exposure to when the equity bubble is popping. See: bonds. Wait, what  I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just not sure what you're saying?
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Dec 8, 2010 01:41
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If you think that there is a housing bubble or a tech bubble or something and you dont know where to put your money to take advantage of that forecast then bonds could be the way to go. Strong emphasis on the word could. As the economy contracts bonds often increase in value.
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Dec 8, 2010 02:11
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Jack posted:Once again shorting the 30 year is the best play. Even after today's bond slaughter it is only the beginning. The bond market will look like the 2007-2008 equity markets in my opinion. Sorry for asking some obvious questions: - What you're saying is that interest rates inevitably have to go up, and when they do all these low-interest bonds people are holding are going to crash in value, right? - How do you take a short position on the 30 year t-note, exactly? - This is still vulnerable to the problem I was describing with real estate in 2003: Yes interest rates have to go up, probably a lot, at some point. But when? 6 months? 6 years? Who knows! Holding an incorrect short position for several years is very expensive, especially since short positions tend to have some kind of natural decay.
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Dec 8, 2010 07:14
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DancingMachine posted:Yes interest rates have to go up, probably a lot, at some point. But when? 6 months? 6 years? Who knows! Holding an incorrect short position for several years is very expensive, especially since short positions tend to have some kind of natural decay. maybe 2 years. Most likely close to 6 when rates will spike and we go into the Lost-Decade mode. Shorting treasury: triple leveraged 30yr+ treasury shorts. http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:TMV -edit wrong ticker. Dr. Jackal fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Dec 8, 2010 |
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Dec 8, 2010 07:26
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Nifty posted:If you think that there is a housing bubble or a tech bubble or something and you dont know where to put your money to take advantage of that forecast then bonds could be the way to go. Strong emphasis on the word could. As the economy contracts bonds often increase in value. I would look into corporate bonds. The yields on some of those is easier to manage than Treasuries or Munis, IMO.
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Dec 8, 2010 11:05
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was anyone in on OREX in expectation of FDA panel? I was thinking of jumping in on OREX (on Monday) after reading about the 2 competitors getting rejected and initial study showing that there was slight improvement of weightloss with their drug... At least in with a straddle.
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Dec 8, 2010 17:42
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What is everyone's opinion on DUK? I have been looking at them and ED lately for a possible utility position. ED has a very mature market and less room for growth. However DUK has exposure to a new nuclear plant (Here) New nuclear kind of scares me because it could potentially turn into a cash drain if the project goes awry or commodity prices take a turn down. There is also a shitload of risk with capital investment of that size ($11bn). That being said though, I don't expect energy commodities to go down anytime soon and once built, nuclear provides low cost generation. DUK also owns three plans whose licenses don't expire for another 30 years. DUK currently has a nicer dividend as well and my new strategy is to sit on some relatively stable dividend stocks. ED also seems overvalued to me. Cheesemaster200 fucked around with this message at 17:53 on Dec 8, 2010 |
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Dec 8, 2010 17:50
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This bond market slaughter is eventually going to hit the equity markets, yet it seems as though the equity markets don't have a care in the world. Overleveraged companies with balance sheets like LVS, SLG, ect. will be murdered if the cost of debt continues to go up. Still have a percentage on the 10 yr until that issue needs to be visited though. But I suspect it will come unless deficit spending is reduced somehow. Oh yea not to mention what the higher 10 yr will do to the housing market. Oh for the guy wondering how to short bonds, there are futures that trade as well as etfs like TLT/TBT. TLT you have to pay dividends to short, TBT has etf decay. Jack fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Dec 8, 2010 |
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Dec 8, 2010 18:31
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