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jmiz5 posted:Can someone explain this?
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Dec 21, 2010 17:39
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abagofcheetos posted:They took a massive one time charge over retirement benefits that crushed earnings for a quarter. also someone has to point out VZ has gone up ~10% since they did that.
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Dec 21, 2010 18:36
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I'm considering shorting gold in the simplest fashion possible. Should I buy puts on an ETF like GLD or buy a leveraged short ETN like DZZ? My holding period would be no longer than 6 months.
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Dec 21, 2010 18:41
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nnnotime posted:I'm considering shorting gold in the simplest fashion possible. Should I buy puts on an ETF like GLD or buy a leveraged short ETN like DZZ? My holding period would be no longer than 6 months. I was thinking of doing this but, "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." I feel gold is a bubble because of people being fear-mongered into buying it (just listen to conservative talk radio for a day). Even if an investor was convinced of inflation, there would be other, better ways of dealing with it than buying physical gold. Warren Buffet made a decent comment on gold: quote:For what that's worth at current gold prices, you could buy all -- not some -- all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?
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Dec 21, 2010 19:16
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nnnotime posted:I'm considering shorting gold in the simplest fashion possible. Should I buy puts on an ETF like GLD or buy a leveraged short ETN like DZZ? My holding period would be no longer than 6 months. If you are even considering holding a 2x short gold fund for anywhere close to 6 months I'd suggest immediately closing your brokerage account and doing something else with your money (you'll thank me when you're a grown up). alreadybeen posted:Warren Buffet made a decent comment on gold: I like what Munger said even more. Charlie Munger posted:I don't have the slightest interest in gold. I like understanding what works and what doesn't in human systems. To me that's not optional; that's a moral obligation. If you're capable of understanding the world, you have a moral obligation to become rational. And I don't see how you become rational hoarding gold. Even if it works, you're a jerk. greasyhands fucked around with this message at 19:31 on Dec 21, 2010 |
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Dec 21, 2010 19:28
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Again, all the gold mined in the world is little more than what would fill an olympic sized swimming pool. It's shiny, but it has few industrial applications, and those voids could be filled and probably will be filled. It's shiny. Gold: The sneaky fiat currency.
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Dec 21, 2010 20:01
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fougera posted:I'm looking to play copper, does anyone know of any good ones besides VALE? which ETFs? Just trade FCX. Copper and Gold. It's up a shitton this past year, but it should correct alongside the precious metals. And it has dividends.
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Dec 21, 2010 22:25
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ToiletLaw posted:Just trade FCX. Copper and Gold. It's up a shitton this past year, but it should correct alongside the precious metals. And it has dividends. Alcoa?
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Dec 22, 2010 00:24
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greasyhands posted:If you are even considering holding a 2x short gold fund for anywhere close to 6 months I'd suggest immediately closing your brokerage account and doing something else with your money (you'll thank me when you're a grown up). That Munger quote is a good one. I'm more of a technical analyst than a fundamental analyst. That being said, I still pay attention to the fundamentals as I don't feel those two schools of thought are exclusive. The Gold market is boggling my mind on both fronts. Every day I come home from work and anticipate the news of fiery balls of liquid metal falling from the sky as people can't get rid of it fast enough when the almighty shiny bubble finally pops.
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Dec 22, 2010 03:28
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Dr. Jackal posted:Alcoa? 
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Dec 22, 2010 04:21
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It seems that this forum is pretty down on Gold, with its obvious bubble ready to pop any day now, but conversely is still pretty high on silver. Don't both go relatively hand in hand, with accepted exchange rates of 1:33 oz of gold to silver. Are people not worrying about the silver bubble just as much?
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Dec 22, 2010 04:30
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Josh Lyman posted:AA makes aluminum? oh wait precious... yeah. brain is fizzledddd
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Dec 22, 2010 04:32
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MentosMan posted:It seems that this forum is pretty down on Gold, with its obvious bubble ready to pop any day now, but conversely is still pretty high on silver. Don't both go relatively hand in hand, with accepted exchange rates of 1:33 oz of gold to silver. Are people not worrying about the silver bubble just as much? Silver is so bizarre because in the real world it functions as both a precious metal and an actual practical commodity yet it tends to trade in step with gold, as you point out. Many people make the argument that even if gold deflates silver won't necessarily because its many (and increasing) real world applications support its current value. Past performance doesn't really support that argument at all, but the entire precious metal/rare earth space is in such a dotcom-ish mania right now that who loving knows? It's all completely irrational and anyone's guess/argument is just as good as their polar opposite.
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Dec 22, 2010 04:52
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greasyhands posted:Silver is so bizarre because in the real world it functions as both a precious metal and an actual practical commodity yet it tends to trade in step with gold, as you point out. Many people make the argument that even if gold deflates silver won't necessarily because its many (and increasing) real world applications support its current value. Past performance doesn't really support that argument at all, but the entire precious metal/rare earth space is in such a dotcom-ish mania right now that who loving knows? It's all completely irrational and anyone's guess/argument is just as good as their polar opposite. The thing about silver is that its industrial uses make it no longer exist, whereas as gold just sits around being gold. I realize that gold is far more rare than silver, but as people are fond of noting all the gold ever pulled out of the earth still exists somewhere. Which would make you think that physical-store funds like SLV and the upcoming WITE would have the effect of driving the price higher, given that it's a need rather than just a currency equivalent. Anyway the action in gold/silver/platinum is completely baffling to me and I've stopped trying to play them. If there's an obvious burst I might try to ride a gold-plated elevator down but I'm not going to call tops. Edit: Am I the only nerd planning to give single shares of KOL as stocking stuffers? Edit edit: drat, I didn't realize that it can cost up to $175 to get physical certificates. Screw that. Plastic Jesus fucked around with this message at 17:35 on Dec 22, 2010 |
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Dec 22, 2010 05:59
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Plastic Jesus posted:Anyway the action in gold/silver/platinum is completely baffling to me and I've stopped trying to play them. If there's an obvious burst I might try to ride a gold-plated elevator down but I'm not going to call tops. Echoing this. I can't be remotely sure it's even near a top, but it has technical indicators for a disastrous fall so I take the "Interesting, I don't feel at all comfortable in this market" and step aside approach. To me it feels like crazy people buying into crazy people hype. Gold machines coming to my state!! edit: KOL as stocking stuffers is pretty nerdy clever. I foresee some explaining in your future though.
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Dec 22, 2010 08:20
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I like VZ a good bit, the main reason is not that it is getting the iphone, but because on strength of their network made Apple come to them (met with open arms obviously). Android was able to eat into Apple's smartphone marketshare (and now surpass) something fierce because it was what was available on Verizon. They have subscriber leverage and cell phone network leverage over the other players. Plus they seem to have solid management and a nice grasp of the future (wireless in everything).
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Dec 22, 2010 09:55
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SauceNinja posted:That Munger quote is a good one. I'm more of a technical analyst than a fundamental analyst. That being said, I still pay attention to the fundamentals as I don't feel those two schools of thought are exclusive. The Gold market is boggling my mind on both fronts. Every day I come home from work and anticipate the news of fiery balls of liquid metal falling from the sky as people can't get rid of it fast enough when the almighty shiny bubble finally pops. The same Munger who said average Americans should 'suck it up and cope' with economic realities, right after he had been bailed out by Uncle Sam. Guys like him and Buffett are of course exceptional minds when it comes to investing principles, but of late their comments on general economic topics have been questionable at best. As for the fundamentals behind gold, the main factor involved is the real interest rate. As the real interest rate declines, and heads into negative territory, savers and investors are getting less and less a return for their cash. A far more attractive proposition to lending capital at negative or extremely low rates is to buy tangible assets that can't be depreciated, namely PMs. As long as central banks continue to wage war on savers by keeping nominal rates low and inflating, gold will continue to be demanded. When you see real interest rates trend higher, you'll see gold actually sell off. There's really nothing irrational about that. Gold is not a bubble until you see real interest rates regularly at something like 3 or 4% and above with gold still continuing to rise like it has been.
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Dec 22, 2010 18:41
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Steve Evets posted:The same Munger who said average Americans should 'suck it up and cope' with economic realities, right after he had been bailed out by Uncle Sam. Guys like him and Buffett are of course exceptional minds when it comes to investing principles, but of late their comments on general economic topics have been questionable at best. Buffett and Co. were not bailed out by Uncle Sam. In fact they were one of the only people besides Uncle Sam Loaning money out (at much worse terms and making a ton of cash doing it).
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Dec 22, 2010 19:00
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So when does everyone think this rally with eventually fizzle? I have been looking for an entry point aver the last few weeks and I cannot justify to myself buying when everything is at or close to 52W highs...
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Dec 22, 2010 19:20
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Foma posted:Buffett and Co. were not bailed out by Uncle Sam. In fact they were one of the only people besides Uncle Sam Loaning money out (at much worse terms and making a ton of cash doing it). Not directly, but the TBTFs he had substantial holdings in definitely were. Cheesemaster200 posted:So when does everyone think this rally with eventually fizzle? I have been looking for an entry point aver the last few weeks and I cannot justify to myself buying when everything is at or close to 52W highs... It really reminds me of last year, when we just melted higher at the end of the year and then sold off in mid January. I'd probably wait for that sort of reaction early in the new year and then buy stuff then.
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Dec 22, 2010 19:34
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The market will go down when bond yields force the feds hand which will probably be when the 3 mo hits .25%. Either that or commodity costs reduce margins by enough that even the government stimulus can't fake growth.
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Dec 22, 2010 19:47
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Cheesemaster200 posted:So when does everyone think this rally with eventually fizzle? I have been looking for an entry point aver the last few weeks and I cannot justify to myself buying when everything is at or close to 52W highs... I've been holding off, too, for the same reasons. Been keeping an eye out for a good place(s) to put a few grand, but buying in at the (what seems to me like a) peak just feels like a bad gamble. Unless something unexpected happens I'll probably hold off until early-mid January and see how things are looking then. I like to believe that the economy is slowly improving, but I just don't believe we're going to be able to sustain the 2-year highs that we've seen in the past week or so.
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Dec 23, 2010 00:11
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If I wanted to get intraday currency prices for the past 2-3 years, where should I look? I would be willing to pay for this information.
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Dec 23, 2010 15:29
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Josh Lyman posted:If I wanted to get intraday currency prices for the past 2-3 years, where should I look? I would be willing to pay for this information. Download MT4 from FxPro
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Dec 23, 2010 15:41
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Josh Lyman posted:If I wanted to get intraday currency prices for the past 2-3 years, where should I look? I would be willing to pay for this information. Can't vouch for the quality: http://ratedata.gaincapital.com/
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Dec 23, 2010 16:35
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drat it, I hate when a big (5%+) temporary intraday drop triggers my stop-loss, and then the price promptly rebounds. It literally bounced off of my stop-loss limit and shot back up. Oh well, I still walked away with a tidy 14% profit on a 3-month investment, but it's still a little disappointing. Maybe my stop-loss will be vindicated in the coming weeks if this rally peters out.
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Dec 23, 2010 22:45
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Two questions: How much does it cost a firm to sponsor your Series 7? I have an internship this summer and am thinking of asking if they can sponsor me as part of my compensation. Also, I'm really interested in the mathematics behind trading, but I don't know where to start in order to learn it on my own time. I'm no longer in college so I can't take classes in it. Suggestions? books?
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Dec 26, 2010 02:36
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Are fake money stock trading websites recommended on here for beginners in stock trading? I've been playing with updown.com and it seems pretty addicting so far.
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Dec 27, 2010 14:55
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Kneel Before Zog posted:Are fake money stock trading websites recommended on here for beginners in stock trading? I've been playing with updown.com and it seems pretty addicting so far. investopedia.com has a stock market game feature and also doubles as a glossary of financial jargon
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Dec 27, 2010 15:13
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Paper trading is great, as long as you take it as seriously as you would with real money. Edit: Picked up some FCX @ $118.08 earlier this morning. I really wanted to buy it cheaper, but it feels like there's too much momentum not to at least start a position. AbsentMindedWelder fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Dec 27, 2010 |
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Dec 27, 2010 15:32
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Closed out positions in AKAM (lost NFLX contract, Facebook photos don't load half the time) and BRCM (wanted to diversify, own AAPL anyway). Opened positions in FCX and COP (for obvious reasons).
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Dec 27, 2010 18:12
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I sure am glad I bought MCP when it was at $34.
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Dec 27, 2010 20:44
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 stockgrader.jpg How seriously do you guys take grading agencies like Thomson Reuters or Standard and Poor's? Is it a good idea to screen stocks based on those ratings and go from there?
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Dec 28, 2010 01:12
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What exactly is that chart showing?
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Dec 28, 2010 01:14
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That's contrasting what Barrons recommended on SIRI (Sirius radio) vs its actual performance.
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Dec 28, 2010 02:02
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ikillhostages posted:That's contrasting what Barrons recommended on SIRI (Sirius radio) vs its actual performance. but we can all agree SIRI is some crazy business model right?
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Dec 28, 2010 03:16
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I really know nothing about SIRI, I just found it funny that they recommended to avoid when the stock went up like 1000%. Which is my whole question on how reliable those resources are (stock grade/ratings).
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Dec 28, 2010 03:27
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As a general rule I'd never buy a penny stock, so it really doesn't matter to me that SIRI has gone up a bazillion percent. For every SIRI there's a hundred that go to zero. In SIRI's specific case, I still think their business model is unsustainable. If Howard Stern retires or gets hit by a bus, SIRI goes bankrupt.
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Dec 28, 2010 03:52
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ikillhostages posted:I really know nothing about SIRI, I just found it funny that they recommended to avoid when the stock went up like 1000%. Which is my whole question on how reliable those resources are (stock grade/ratings). If you are looking to buy a stock and most people say its poo poo, you should make sure it has excellent fundamentals and will remain relevant in the world in spite of competition or technological advances. The only stuff I have bought like this either had a decent market cap (F) or was not trading below 5$. Just because Sirius is at 1.60 or whatever and someone was wrong about its short term performance doesnt mean it isnt still a pile of poo poo.
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Dec 28, 2010 04:25
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ikillhostages posted:I really know nothing about SIRI, I just found it funny that they recommended to avoid when the stock went up like 1000%. Which is my whole question on how reliable those resources are (stock grade/ratings). As a group, analysts aren't exactly brilliant at predicting the future: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/22/17316/montier-analysts-are-rubbish/
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Dec 28, 2010 13:51
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