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does anyone know how much, per square foot, each of these costs? 1 - a stand alone store like a Target or Best Buy 2 - a mall anchor like Macys or JC Penny's
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Dec 28, 2011 04:54
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cremnob fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Apr 16, 2013 |
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Dec 28, 2011 05:58
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abagofcheetos posted:does anyone know how much, per square foot, each of these costs?
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Dec 28, 2011 06:40
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Josh Lyman posted:Are you trying to figure out how much SHLD is going to make from closing their stores? not quite, I'm trying to make the case that shld is possibly the most undervalued stock ever I'll post my (literally) back of the envelope calculations when I get back to my place tonight vvvvvvvvv abagofcheetos fucked around with this message at 17:47 on Dec 28, 2011 |
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Dec 28, 2011 17:15
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I think most of the valuable KMart properties have already been sold or scam sold leased back from the bankruptcy.
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Dec 28, 2011 17:32
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So, SHLD is trading at $33.33. Subtracting $5.84 per share of cash, you have $27.49 per share. Based on some quick calculations from their 2010 annual report, Sears owns 92,580,400 square feet of store. There are currently 106,880,000 shares of SHLD outstanding. So in essence, every share buys you .866 square feet of retail space, or put another way, buying a square foot of Sears costs $31.74. Granted, there is a lot of debt that would basically double that per square foot price, but on the other hand, there are about a billion other assets Sears has, from their inventory to their 12 distribution centers to their headquarters to their brand equity. This is more or less the valuation Berkowitz used to make a ton of money on the stock - his problem was he never sold it 
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Dec 29, 2011 01:11
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They didn't do a land in a spin off, they pay rent to another entity thing back when the CEO changed? I thought I remember reading about that, it was a long time ago I could be really confused. Also every Kmart I have ever seen is in the really lovely part of town.
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Dec 29, 2011 01:20
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It doesn't appear they did a land spinoff, and yeah Kmarts aren't usually the greatest properties, but most of their owned real estate (68 million square feet) is in their Sears mall stores. The majority (>85%) of their Kmart locations are leased. My figures don't include any of Sears Canada, because I can't tell if the stores there are owned or leased.
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Dec 29, 2011 02:46
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abagofcheetos posted:So, SHLD is trading at $33.33. Subtracting $5.84 per share of cash, you have $27.49 per share. 
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Dec 29, 2011 04:54
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Well yeah - last time SHLD went to $30 (Nov 2008) it appreciated to $120 in less than a year and a half (Apr 2010). Anyone silly enough to still be riding it is now back to $30... including one Mr. Berkowitz.
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Dec 29, 2011 05:04
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I kinda like your analysis so far, but Sears.... and brand equity? I'd say that's more of a negative than anything at this point. Sears is a really interesting holdover from the traditional retail era.. .where the idea was that you bow to your customers and, even if it means taking a loss, support the products you sell- whether or not that can compete with bottom of the barrel 'go gently caress yourself, you got a good deal' retailers like Best Buy doesn't look like a good bet to me at this point. I mean, Craftsman tools still have a lifetime warranty... that is really awesome from a theoretical perspective, and really awful from a 'what are the other retailers doing to undercut Sears in the Sunday flyers' perspective. Also, mall anchor space isn't what it once was... malls definitely aren't going away but the idea of anchor stores may slowly be fading to smaller, more specialized retailers. Either way, I agree Sears looks pretty interesting by a lot of traditional metrics (even if mall anchor space is rapidly contracting, the space they own can still be divided up... it definitely has tangible value), and I love beat up companies that still have unappreciated value (currently long NOK @ 4.70). I'll probably watch it for a few days and maybe join you on the long side. greasyhands fucked around with this message at 11:42 on Dec 29, 2011 |
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Dec 29, 2011 11:34
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Any ideas about investing in foreign markets in the utilities sector due to the rapid growth of the developing countries? Any stocks that I could buy into in American markets that track foreign markets??
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Dec 29, 2011 23:42
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Kneel Before Zog posted:Any ideas about investing in foreign markets in the utilities sector due to the rapid growth of the developing countries? Any stocks that I could buy into in American markets that track foreign markets?? For what a dividend play, or stock growth, or both? If anything I like some Brazil/South American telecom, they love calling family and won't have much euro stigma
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Dec 29, 2011 23:48
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Kneel Before Zog posted:Any ideas about investing in foreign markets in the utilities sector due to the rapid growth of the developing countries? Any stocks that I could buy into in American markets that track foreign markets?? I have owned JXI for a while and been disappointing with the return
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Dec 29, 2011 23:52
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I've read some VERY compelling analysis about the amount of investment required in global water infrastructure over the next decade, but so far it hasn't been really reflected in the markets. CGW is a play here.
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Dec 30, 2011 00:19
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abagofcheetos posted:I've read some VERY compelling analysis about the amount of investment required in global water infrastructure over the next decade, but so far it hasn't been really reflected in the markets. CGW is a play here. VE has been very disappointing for me as well
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Dec 30, 2011 00:22
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greasyhands posted:Why should he be doing that? Can you point to any literature that indicates following RSI can lead to market beating performance? Here's a great book by Welles Wilder, the guy who created the RSI. http://store.stockcharts.com/products/new-concepts-in-technical-trading-systems But that's not the point of my comment. His strategy to use a 2 day move in the market as a momentum indicator is clearly not sound- but if he wants to be a successful momentum trader, RSI is a good place to start. I know a successful professional options trader who uses RSI 2 and RSI 15 and waits for them to hit super high extremes. If both aren't above/below those extremes, he doesn't even consider the trade. The point of trading isn't to use as many metrics as possible - it's to find one or two that work for what you're trying to do. If you want to be a momentum trader, RSI works. But being a successful trader has much more to do with risk management than it does with a market beating strategy. Risk management is the market beating strategy.
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Dec 30, 2011 14:59
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Turkeybone posted:For what a dividend play, or stock growth, or both? TEF looks attractive now due to the large dividend, but the exposure to Europe is offsetting the EM play here for me. Also, I remember hearing something about additional taxes on dividends of ADRs, but I haven't really looked into it.
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Dec 31, 2011 23:57
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abagofcheetos posted:So, SHLD is trading at $33.33. Subtracting $5.84 per share of cash, you have $27.49 per share. How much does it cost to own (maintain, keep owning) a square foot? That's a lot of square footage sears owns, now in the remote tiny possibility that the US goes into recession with an even lesser chance of it being a big one, what happens to the price of that square footage? What happens to the amount of people that would be willing to rent that square footage? What happens with all the space owned by other companies? I wouldn't even bother with calculating how much more i can get from the real estate i would be trying to figure out how much i expect it to cheapen. Realistically.
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Jan 3, 2012 08:45
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Dow futures are up 220. So glad I fully moved out of cash on Thu and Fri.
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Jan 3, 2012 12:33
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Made a move on weds or thurs for pplt, hl, svm, and sil. All except pplt up 10+%(pplt up 4%), portfolio up 8.8% Too bad I'm a baby and this is with investopedia money 
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Jan 3, 2012 16:08
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Can someone briefly explain why the financial market soared up today? Bloomberg news said it was because the materials market went up?
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Jan 3, 2012 20:05
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Kneel Before Zog posted:Can someone briefly explain why the financial market soared up today? Bloomberg news said it was because the materials market went up? There's no reason, the markets have been making 1-3% swings several times a week for years now. I read an article the other day that said in 2011 the average S&P intraday volatility was over twice its 50 year historical average. You can get into technical reasons like high frequency computerized automation of trading and that probably has a lot to do with it, but there was no underlying change in any fundamentals that made people go "welp, time to buy!"
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Jan 3, 2012 20:38
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Mexplosivo posted:How much does it cost to own (maintain, keep owning) a square foot? That's a lot of square footage sears owns, now in the remote tiny possibility that the US goes into recession with an even lesser chance of it being a big one, what happens to the price of that square footage? What happens to the amount of people that would be willing to rent that square footage? What happens with all the space owned by other companies? If Sears could just figure out a way to stay solvent for the next 4 or 5 years, I think they should be in a good position valuation wise. The stock fell to $30 at its lowest in 2008, which is another reason why I feel $30 is roughly the floor for the stock.
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Jan 3, 2012 21:20
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greasyhands posted:There's no reason, the markets have been making 1-3% swings several times a week for years now. I read an article the other day that said in 2011 the average S&P intraday volatility was over twice its 50 year historical average. You can get into technical reasons like high frequency computerized automation of trading and that probably has a lot to do with it, but there was no underlying change in any fundamentals that made people go "welp, time to buy!" Volatility is up and will continue to go up even further. A lot of this has to do with low cost trades, the efficient market(our ability to receive news and understand its impact on the market faster), and high frequency trading. Day traders, HFT, and large hedge funds can move their money ever more quicker today in today's IT and information driven market. Also the market has been very panic driven since the recession of 2008/2009 which will take some time for a lot of investors to get over. Money is really cheap right now, banks can borrow from the Fed at 0.01% interest which drives down the interest rate on borrowed money from your home-buyers to your margin investor. You also have consistent debasement of the US dollar by loose monetary policy which can often make equities more attractive against the dollar.
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Jan 4, 2012 02:49
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I asked this in another thread, but I figured some of you in here might be able to help... I'm working independently on a 3-statement pro forma valuation and I've run into a few questions which the Internet isn't able to answer (or at least they're a bitch to find). I've got a solid finance background but since I go to a lib arts school I haven't had much in the way of accounting, so these might seem retarded to anyone that knows what they're doing: 1. When going from income to cash flows, how do I account for trade? This is a media company so trade is actually pretty important for once. Intuitively I want to add trade expense back into Net Income because it's non-cash... but on the other hand I also think maybe that expense is created to offset trade revenue, so maybe it's serving the function of correcting for cash already. Any ideas? The internet has been entirely blank on this one. 2. If I found an EBITDA multiple that's VERY specific to the industry and market segment the company I'm analyzing is in, am I allowed to use that with other valuation techniques? I have been using free cash flows, which in this case are actually very comparable because the company pays almost no tax and has no outstanding debt... change in NWC is kind of an issue though (lots of A/R issues, see the trade thing in #1) so it's important that I use a cash flow metric that reflects that. Fundamentally, though the multiples would be on the same order-of-magnitude, right? 3. I'm struggling with accounting for investments in securities... So interest/dividend payments go on the income statement, fine. Realized capital gains go to cash flows only and unrealized capital gains do some weird poo poo on the balance sheet. That's fine too. What keeps mindfucking me is this: the firm uses interest/dividend income as operating revenue and securities themselves as a liquidity backstop... which it taps into relatively frequently. So... I have estimated returns, which are affected by the size of the investment, which is determined by how much cash the company is bringing in... which is a function (in part) of estimated returns. Is there an easier way to account for this stuff? Am I overthinking it? The professor doesn't really have a finance focus so this part is pretty much up to me.
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Jan 4, 2012 06:27
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tolerabletariff posted:I asked this in another thread, but I figured some of you in here might be able to help... I'm working independently on a 3-statement pro forma valuation and I've run into a few questions which the Internet isn't able to answer (or at least they're a bitch to find). I've got a solid finance background but since I go to a lib arts school I haven't had much in the way of accounting, so these might seem retarded to anyone that knows what they're doing: 2. Basic free cash flow to firm is basically EBITDA - capital expenditures (sometimes including net changes in working capital and/or net borrowing, depending on what you're trying to do), and it would enhance comparability across firms with different capital structures. If you're comparing a public company to a private one, standard practice is to apply a discount for liquidity, etc., though. 3. If the firm derives a significant amount of income from its investments (a bold assumption in these difficult times), and it taps its portfolio when cash flow from actual operations is low, then projecting future income becomes quite difficult, yes. Results here would be pretty scenario specific, so you could actually project various scenarios. I don't know your task is to project what will actually happen over the next few periods or whether you want just a single projection of the company's earnings power. In the latter case you have much more flexibility.
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Jan 4, 2012 07:09
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Hobologist posted:1. If by trade expenses you mean payment in kind rather than in cash, then it stays off the cash flow statement. I've never seen it, but if you use the indirect method (starts with net income and reconciles it to cash flows), you could include a line or two adjusting for in-kind items. Thanks a bunch for your help. Especially #1, that was really bugging me--should have mentioned that I'm using the indirect method. That's what I ended up going with, reconciled Trade along with other non-cash A/R transactions. For reference, the firm is a nonprofit newspaper publisher, although it operates (unsuccessfully) on a for-profit model. It has a pretty sizable endowment that it can draw down whenever it needs to. In the past it was was just there to fund capex, now it's the only thing keeping it afloat... My analysis is part of a broader strategic plan for it and one of the key issues is how long the endowment is going to last.
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Jan 4, 2012 10:24
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tolerabletariff posted:Thanks a bunch for your help. Especially #1, that was really bugging me--should have mentioned that I'm using the indirect method. That's what I ended up going with, reconciled Trade along with other non-cash A/R transactions. If you make some simplifying assumptions the job is easier. Project what interest rate the endowment will earn and what amount of annual drawdowns will be necessary, assuming both are constant, and then just use the present value of an annuity equation and solve for the number of years.
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Jan 4, 2012 18:13
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How will a dividend payment show up in my Scottrade account? I've looked under my account, balances, trades, but shouldn't there be some sort of transaction history tab? Should I ditch PHK and go for NLY?
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Jan 5, 2012 02:41
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owDAWG posted:Volatility is up and will continue to go up even further. Is there a way to invest in volatility? I mean, if they have a "fear" index, why not a volatility index?
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Jan 5, 2012 02:52
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cgeq posted:Is there a way to invest in volatility? I mean, if they have a "fear" index, why not a volatility index? vxx
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Jan 5, 2012 02:54
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Cmdr. Shepard posted:How will a dividend payment show up in my Scottrade account? I've looked under my account, balances, trades, but shouldn't there be some sort of transaction history tab? code:
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Jan 5, 2012 04:29
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What's the opinion on EMC? Stock seems to be down just in time for me to pick up some options. Now I'm trying to decide if I should take the small profit now and pay down my remaining CC debt or just hold on to them and hope it hits 30 before I die of old age. EDIT - The more I think about this, taking the money now and paying off my remaining debt (3K at 16% interest) makes more sense than waiting 6 months for the stock to maybe go up another 8 points, which would give me an extra $1000 dollars or so, but at the cost of all those interest penalties I paid to service my debt. Am I missing anything? Mandals fucked around with this message at 06:35 on Jan 5, 2012 |
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Jan 5, 2012 04:59
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a lovely poster posted:vxx Do not listen to this person.
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Jan 5, 2012 05:40
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Plastic Jesus posted:Do not listen to this person. I'm not saying get any of it, just saying that you can trade based on the volatility index with that ETF
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Jan 5, 2012 05:41
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Kneel Before Zog posted:Can someone briefly explain why the financial market soared up today? Bloomberg news said it was because the materials market went up?
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Jan 5, 2012 06:08
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a lovely poster posted:I'm not saying get any of it, just saying that you can trade based on the volatility index with that ETF No you can't. VXX is an ETN that tries to approximate a rolling 30-day VIX futures contract. To do this it has to continually roll near-dated contracts into further-dated contracts. Since contango is the norm for most futures, and particularly for the VIX, it usually loses money each time it rolls. It can be useful in day trades, but as an investment vehicle it's awful. Edit: Sorry, I really don't mean to sound like a dick  cgeq posted:Is there a way to invest in volatility? I mean, if they have a "fear" index, why not a volatility index? There really isn't. It's not for a lack of trying (there are I think 9 different ETNs that try to do this), it's just that volatility is scatter-shot and hence not something you can "invest" in. Best volatility investment? German, British, U.S. and Japanese government debt. BTW, the "fear index" is actually just the VIX, which is in fact the volatility index. Plastic Jesus fucked around with this message at 06:19 on Jan 5, 2012 |
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Jan 5, 2012 06:10
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cgeq posted:Is there a way to invest in volatility? Yes. For individual stocks you could use stock options.
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Jan 5, 2012 06:25
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Well, in theory a long-only delta neutral (i.e. price moves are hedged) portfolio of options gives you positive exposure to volatility. But that is no more a fire-and-forget strategy than the vxx.
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Jan 5, 2012 06:27
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