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Dr. Eldarion posted:
That is the risk, I agree. But I think with strong carrier support and a $99 price tag (it is a "premium" phone without a premium price) it will give WP the boost it needs to become relevant. From an investment perspective, all NOK needs is the appearance of no longer falling off a cliff to move the stock up a fair amount. If Lumia is a moderate success, I think buying NOK ~$5 will be a profitable investment. I think Nokia probably has a lot more brand recognition than they are commonly given credit for, especially among people who are still on old feature phones and looking to move to smartphones. They are also still popular in Europe and the developing world- pushing cheap smartphones in Asia could prove to be very successful for them as they still have an enormous presence there (keep in mind NOK still sells more mobile phones than anyone else). This isn't just about the US market, it's important to point out. Here is todays launch in Malaysia - http://discovr.smashpop.net/2012/02/10/live-update-from-nokia-lumia-launch-at-pavilion-kl/ They are selling the 710, which is a pretty decent phone, for ~$300 with no contract. I think that is going to be pretty successful. greasyhands fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Feb 10, 2012 |
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Feb 10, 2012 19:59
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Turkeybone posted:Okay, you two enjoy jerking yourselves off while aapl goes higher. I wouldn't suggest shorting Apple, they could have more runaway hits, I just personally wouldn't put money into them, and if I had a large amount invested in them I would take some of it out. Right now Apple has been making bank (and tons of it) due to their first mover advantage quote:In marketing, first-mover advantage or FMA is the advantage gained by the initial ("first-moving") significant occupant of a market segment. It may be referred to as Technological Leadership. This advantage may stem from the fact that the first entrant can gain control of resources that followers may not be able to match.[1] Sometimes the first mover is not able to capitalize on its advantage, leaving the opportunity for another firm to gain second-mover advantage. That advantage is going to fall by the wayside as time goes by, other companies will come in and eat away at Apple's sales numbers and you will see their margins comes down. It is simple business. Look at iPod sales now, they used to be how Apple made their money, now it is a blip. They have to execute perfectly and keep releasing new innovative products and not have anyone else do it better to justify their valuation (At 460.05B which is larger than Microsoft and Google combined, ~70 Billion more than Exxon). On top of all that at a 460 Billion Market cap, it is going to be very hard to move the needle, say they release a new product that becomes a billion dollar business, they only added .4% to their market cap. I don't think Microsoft or Nokia is going to be impactful in the Smartphone market for at least another 2 generations of devices (If at all). I think Apple has a clear lead. I just don't think it is written in stone that they will maintain it.
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Feb 11, 2012 00:47
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Sure I agree that no company is going to be dominant forever, but I'm not going to go against them anytime soon. Take profits, sure. But after blowing out that quarter? The holiday season couple'd with Jobs' death.. I wouldnt think this coming earnings could top that. Then it'll be an excuse for growth naysayers to come in and start whittling away, then it might be a more interesting play, but it's like loving with the Giants while theyre on their victory parade.
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Feb 11, 2012 03:39
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How reliable is market sentiment for choosing stocks, and has there been any real research done of how particular kinds of information/presentation of that information in the news affects sentiment and volatility? It'd be interesting to figure out how the prevalence of words like "plummet" in the news would effect investor confidence as compared to words like "uncertain" or "doubtful."
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Feb 11, 2012 21:51
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OwlBot 2000 posted:How reliable is market sentiment for choosing stocks, and has there been any real research done of how particular kinds of information/presentation of that information in the news affects sentiment and volatility? There's a site.. um... sentimentrader.com. Ive never subscribed but Ive seen somewhere, they have a "smart money/dumb money" index that compares like retail trader sentiment and, idk, "professional" sentiment? It's especially useful when the two are polar opposites.. like when the dow went to 6500 or whatevs.
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Feb 11, 2012 22:45
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OwlBot 2000 posted:How reliable is market sentiment for choosing stocks, and has there been any real research done of how particular kinds of information/presentation of that information in the news affects sentiment and volatility? There's actually quite a great deal of this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/News_analytics is probably a good place to start http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentiment_analysis also
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Feb 11, 2012 23:28
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OwlBot 2000 posted:How reliable is market sentiment for choosing stocks, and has there been any real research done of how particular kinds of information/presentation of that information in the news affects sentiment and volatility? I think there was an odd blip for SIRI around when Apple release Siri on their iPhone. I think it could be argued that that was one of those programs getting fooled.
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Feb 12, 2012 00:44
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Does anyone actively trade using their 401k? My friend does so touting the tax benefit. Aside from the fact that you can't touch the money for a while, is there any reason why this would be a bad idea?
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Feb 12, 2012 08:39
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FooGoo posted:Does anyone actively trade using their 401k? My friend does so touting the tax benefit. Aside from the fact that you can't touch the money for a while, is there any reason why this would be a bad idea? I'd like to add an additional question to this actually. Does anyone think it's a bad idea to buy stocks using a 401k loan? It seems like a good deal since you're just paying yourself back but I remember somebody saying it was a bad idea, just can't remember why.
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Feb 12, 2012 15:04
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OwlBot 2000 posted:How reliable is market sentiment for choosing stocks, and has there been any real research done of how particular kinds of information/presentation of that information in the news affects sentiment and volatility? FWIW I know one trader who does little else but track investor sentiment and his track record is awful right now. The problem is that even if you're "right" to fade most market moves, it's likely that you'll be wrong for a painful amount of time first. As Jesse Livermore says, you should let the market verify your suspicions. Being early in a trade is as bad as being wrong.
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Feb 12, 2012 15:46
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I agree and this is basically my whole thing about why I wont go against aapl unless someone else does first, as stated/argued above.
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Feb 12, 2012 17:15
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FooGoo posted:Does anyone actively trade using their 401k? My friend does so touting the tax benefit. Aside from the fact that you can't touch the money for a while, is there any reason why this would be a bad idea? I do. Buy and hold in regular account, at least past short term cap gains. Frequent trading and high dividend stuff (mreits) in my ira. Pretty counter intuitive, but it makes tax time a whole lot better.
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Feb 12, 2012 20:32
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Now that AAPL is over $500, I'll be eagerly watching the close to see if we finish above $500. If we do, this I'll continue riding the train. If not, I may try to get ahead of some technical selling.
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Feb 13, 2012 16:09
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Baddog posted:I do. Buy and hold in regular account, at least past short term cap gains. Frequent trading and high dividend stuff (mreits) in my ira. Yeah any short term stuff I want I just use the 401k to make taxation easier since you don't get any savings from your regular income rates anyway on short term gains. You get to keep the tax until you withdrawal so theoretically you end up way ahead. If you lose all your 401k on gold options don't cry to us.
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Feb 13, 2012 16:39
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All this AAPL talk, does anyone remember why it lost half its value in August-October 2008?
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Feb 13, 2012 17:47
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smackfu posted:All this AAPL talk, does anyone remember why it lost half its value in August-October 2008? The Great Recession and housing bubble 
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Feb 13, 2012 17:57
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smackfu posted:All this AAPL talk, does anyone remember why it lost half its value in August-October 2008?
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Feb 13, 2012 18:09
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What are the general sentiments on how likely a second big market plunge is? I know this is something people probably talk about on MSNBC for 4 hours every morning, but is there a sort-of-consensus or is it way too complicated to answer? More specifically, I am:
and now that my portfolio (started, say, late 2009) went green, then red mid-last-year, and is now green again, and fortunately I put some into it during the red period, I'm wondering whether to start putting more in. Also, it's a new year so my roth IRA isn't maxed out anymore. Are people thinking another big "crash" is unlikely? I'm talking about a crash that would result in me having less principal in 3 years. Is crash a stupid word to use? edit: I realised the tone above kind of comes off as "I don't know about investing. Should I invest?"  Sorry. I'm not asking for comprehensive investing advice, that'd be a lot. I provided the extra information in case the answer "depends." My main question is the one about how likely another really bad market event is.
alnilam fucked around with this message at 20:50 on Feb 13, 2012 |
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Feb 13, 2012 20:46
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alnilam posted:What are the general sentiments on how likely a second big market plunge is? I know this is something people probably talk about on MSNBC for 4 hours every morning, but is there a sort-of-consensus or is it way too complicated to answer? No one knows. Have fun.
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Feb 13, 2012 20:55
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alnilam posted:Anyone who purports to tell you where consensus lies is trying to sell you something. The closest thing we have to predicting the market is technical analysis, which is more of an art than a science. Well, there's that, and then there's inside information. If you know a congressman who's about to launch an investigative committee into corporate malfeasance in the potato chip industry, or an eco-terrorist who is about to set fire to a oil refinery or blast open a pipeline in Houston, then call your broker. bam thwok fucked around with this message at 21:07 on Feb 13, 2012 |
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Feb 13, 2012 21:04
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To me the market is completely broken right now. I don't see how this strategy of financial repression is going to be tolerated forever. Running negative real yields always ends badly and the current negative yield is the highest in history. The timeline of when that changes is anyones guess though. If you can't lose your 3 yr cash, rolling it over in short term cds (3-6mnths) is about the least risky thing you can do outside of keeping it idle in a bank account. As far as what to do 40 years from now, there's another thread on long term investing in this forum that probably can point you to ETFs or mutual funds.
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Feb 13, 2012 21:18
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edit - I'm a moron, posted in wrong thread.
cowofwar fucked around with this message at 05:38 on Feb 14, 2012 |
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Feb 13, 2012 21:36
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Josh Lyman posted:AAPL rapetrain Really wish I held onto my mar 435s  I generally sell too soon, and in that case I was all "oh, well I doubled, that's great" but then looking back..I could've quintupled. Of course nobody ever knows, but I'll have to use trailing stops more than just straight up selling.
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Feb 13, 2012 22:32
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Oh look, a day that ends in y and Greece is still loving things up with regards to the markets! This has been going on since at least 2010...poo poo or get off the pot!!!!!
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Feb 14, 2012 21:24
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Are you going to also blame Greece for the current year which has only seen two down days? Or perhaps the past 3 months that has seen a nearly uninturrupted 15% gain. Or perhaps the past 2 years which has seen the SPY double. Greece has been in the news nearly every day during those time periods. No it is central bank intervention in response to Greece that is driving this market. You want Greece and all the other Southern European countries to be under threat of default for eternity. That way central bankers can perpetually distort the markets through cash for trash balance sheet expanding and other financial wizardry forever.
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Feb 14, 2012 21:44
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http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2012/02/14/zynga-loses-435m-words-with-friends.html Well.. at least theyre getting people laid!
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Feb 14, 2012 23:15
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Jack posted:To me the market is completely broken right now. I don't see how this strategy of financial repression is going to be tolerated forever. Running negative real yields always ends badly and the current negative yield is the highest in history. The timeline of when that changes is anyones guess though. Can you expound on this? You're not the first person I've heard say the market is completely hosed up (exact words of my buddy before I jumped in a couple months ago).
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Feb 14, 2012 23:20
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My contention on Greece is that everytime they pop in the news about worries, bailouts, what have you, the market is negatively affected. Without all this Greek turmoil Im betting we would be even higher than where we are now as when Greece started making GBS threads the bed in Summer of 2010.
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Feb 15, 2012 00:45
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Anyone see this? http://www.cnbc.com/id/46369687 I don't think that raising dividend taxes (which shouldn't be taxed as they are prior taxed after corporate profits but that is a different story) will be a good idea. It will definitely discourage some to continue investing for going after dividends if taxes go from the 15-25% they are now to ~44%.
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Feb 15, 2012 00:48
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MrBigglesworth posted:Anyone see this? First I've seen of it, and a lot of my money is in dividend stocks - I'll definitely be watching this, if it looks like it will pass I'll probably sell out of most of those stocks by the end of Q3. One question (that is probably not answerable right now) - would this affect distributions for MLPs?
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Feb 15, 2012 00:57
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MrBigglesworth posted:Anyone see this? I am don't understand what the issue with this is, I think it is more an issue that capital gains should be income as well. I think the money a company pays on the money it makes is a completely separate accounting procedure to how much income a person "earned" is calculated.
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Feb 15, 2012 00:58
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Well such a response is comprehensive and I don't want to write a novel about it so I'll do the best I can in a paragraph or two. Essentially world governments are carrying around an unsustainable amount of debt. In order to reduce this debt load governments (well I guess you could argue that the Eurozone hasn't explicitly gone down this road) have decided to go down the road of financial repression. They've manipulated interest rates (pomo, twist, theoretically ltro, ect.) to levels lower than they otherwise might be while devaluing currencies to reduce the 'real' value of the debt. The result of this is negative yields (CPI = 3%, yield on the 10 yr is 2%, giving you a real interest rate of -1%). In order for people to be able to achieve a real rate of return over inflation they are being forced into more risk. Either through longer duration (instead of a 10yr buy the 30yr), lower quality bonds (buy B rated instead of A rated), ownership (dividend stocks), or hard assets (oil, gold ect.). The fact that people are being pushed out into riskier assets creates a distortion in asset prices. The second say the 10 yr pays 4% no one is going to bother holding onto some risky stock or junk bond. Of course should the 10 yr go to 4% then the government can no longer roll over their current debt loads and tax revenues would be unable to keep up with interest rate payments. In the real world you can't keep up with your debt payments you just declare bankruptcy. The problem is should the US or really anyone declare bankruptcy you run the risk of triggering some of the hundreds of trillions in unregulated derivatives that now exist in the financial system. Such a thing would see banks which are still extremely leveraged going under and so on and so forth that you saw a glimpse of in 2008. This is also why Greece hasn't defaulted years ago like it should have done. While the US has been lucky the rest of the world is such a mess it continues to see people willing to accept such low yield, history has not been kind when the 10 yr has run negative real rates. Since WWII whenever the 10 year has had a negative real rate it has led to a recession. Some past dates to look up: March 1957, Recession begins Nov 1957. Oct 1973, Recession begins Jan 1974. Nov 1978, Recession begins April 1980. Jan 2008, Recession begins April 2008. Currently the 10 yr has run negative since July of 2011. Given that retail money has all but abandoned the market (something like 34 of 35 weeks of outflows numbering $150 billion), there is not a whole lot of 'bid' that would be able to absorb any agressive selling. Just take a look at AMZN today which fell $5 nearly instantly (only for market stablizers to kick in and retrace it back which is one of the 'benefits' of HFT machines). This sort of central bank market distortion, combined with liquidity which is far lower than showing on the surface lead me to believe that the market has been structurally broken. Of course what does this mean? To me it means that a debt deflationary period is inevitable which will see yet another large 'correction' in stock prices. When will it happen? Who knows. Anyway thats my short simplistic explanation of how I see the markets today and why they're broken.
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Feb 15, 2012 01:11
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Shooting Blanks posted:First I've seen of it, and a lot of my money is in dividend stocks - I'll definitely be watching this, if it looks like it will pass I'll probably sell out of most of those stocks by the end of Q3. Shouldn't effect MLP's as they pay "distributions" and not dividends.
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Feb 15, 2012 01:21
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Jack posted:Well such a response is comprehensive and I don't want to write a novel about it so I'll do the best I can in a paragraph or two. Here's hoping you're right because I have a lot more liquid cash than I had 3 years ago!
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Feb 15, 2012 01:24
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Shooting Blanks posted:First I've seen of it, and a lot of my money is in dividend stocks - I'll definitely be watching this, if it looks like it will pass I'll probably sell out of most of those stocks by the end of Q3. What would you move your money into if moving out of dividend yielders due to higher cap gains tax?
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Feb 15, 2012 03:19
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DancingMachine posted:What would you move your money into if moving out of dividend yielders due to higher cap gains tax? I don't know yet, having only had a few hours to look into it. Thankfully, I have a couple months to consider my options.
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Feb 15, 2012 03:37
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MrBigglesworth posted:Anyone see this? That's assuming he can get the house to pass any tax hikes on the wealthy. This is something Obama has been talking about for a year plus. On the other hand if Obama loses the election and Romney wins expect the tax rate on dividends to drop in line with the 15% on capital gains or even expect a repatriation holiday on overseas earnings. People can speculate on the market all they want but when it comes down to it you are buying fractions of companies against whatever the dollar is worth. Ben makes it pretty clear he will fight deflation at every opportunity. So the likelihood of a deflationary event is highly unlikely. Ben will take moderate inflation and maybe even hyperinflation over the risk of the credit markets seizing or the inability of the government to repay debts with more debt.
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Feb 15, 2012 03:54
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Shooting Blanks posted:I don't know yet, having only had a few hours to look into it. Thankfully, I have a couple months to consider my options. It's a rhetorical question. My point is dividends and cap gains will go up together, and there will be no point in reacting from an investment standpoint as any investment income will be treated the same. The only impact will be that there isn't an incentive to buy and hold a specific security for a full year to get the cap gains rate.
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Feb 15, 2012 05:58
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fougera posted:Been making good money on TPI... earnings are next tuesday, i think its still trading below cash This stock makes NO SENSE. Even with its crushed earnings, it is still a legit 4 or 5 PE, and there is literally 55% more cash on the balance sheet than the stock's market cap, with practically no debt.
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Feb 15, 2012 07:35
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abagofcheetos posted:This stock makes NO SENSE. Even with its crushed earnings, it is still a legit 4 or 5 PE, and there is literally 55% more cash on the balance sheet than the stock's market cap, with practically no debt. It's a Chinese company with no reputable auditor... no one believes the numbers.
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Feb 15, 2012 07:45
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