What If Sports: General Discussion, Questions and Comments

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > What If Sports: General Discussion, Questions and Comments

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AlleyViper: Sep 15, 2007; Oh, there's plenty of other balls in the sea. Plus, you're not very talented.

Bob Shabazz posted:

Nope that's Dave Kingman.

Always the correct answer for any team. Even teams that don't have Dave Kingman.

# ? Apr 11, 2012 16:05

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 12:31

toadee: Aug 16, 2003; North American Turtle Boy Love Association

OK, I know I had talked about this a while back, but work got me sidetracked and poo poo and I had put this on the back burner because I was getting weird results and didn't have time to debug. Anyhow, a few bug fixes later and I now have what I believe to be an accurately compiled database of WIS open league stats comprising the past 360 or so open leagues. The only caveat I have is that in order to get salary data in here I had to do a simple sql join with the wis provided salary sheets. However, there is nothing in the league spreadsheets that indicates which stint of a player you are looking at. So anyone with multiple seasons has the potential to have an incorrect salary listed. Please let me know of any of these that you find, I will add them to a silly sql update adjustment list at the end of each update phase. I will probably run updates weekly or so (have to actually write the auto updater), and put the resulting db in the same place for all to enjoy.

Here it is: http://sidehack.gweep.net/~toad/wis/wis.zip

Inside the zip are 10 files:

wis_league_hitting.sql
wis_league_hitting_splits.sql
wis_league_pitching.sql
wis_league_pitching_splits.sql
wis_league_fielding.sql

wis_league_hitting.csv
wis_league_hitting_splits.csv
wis_league_pitching.csv
wis_league_pitching_splits.csv
wis_league_fielding.csv

I included both SQL and CSV format so even people with excel can play along. I think access can read in SQL statement files. Does google have a cool online database thing like they do for spreadsheets? We could maybe make it public that way. Also share you favorite awesome queries and such. Also recommend any fields you want me to compute and include on the baseline sheet.

# ? Apr 17, 2012 12:37

foolish_fool: Jul 22, 2010

So I'm just looking at the .csv data, but I suspect that something weird is happening in the RC calculation (and consequently RC27). I can vaguely understand '08 Joss being way at the top due to heavy usage, but not so much someone like '15 McCabe and when I run the fomula for RC based on the wis stats legend I get different numbers.

Also, it looks like all the 2011 players have salary 0.

In total though this looks like a super useful resource that I could imagine spending huge chunks of time playing with.

e: The only real outlier apparent so far: in 10 uses 1902 Charlie Hickman (costing ~850k) has hit .365/.386/.521 over ~600ab/season.

foolish_fool fucked around with this message at 15:56 on Apr 17, 2012

# ? Apr 17, 2012 14:40

toadee: Aug 16, 2003; North American Turtle Boy Love Association

Hmm, you know I didn't double check the RC data so that could very well be messed up, will have a go at it. I think I can fix the salary thing fairly easily as well if WIS has an updated salary sheet up.

EDIT: Yah, I see where the RC thing was getting messed up. Was tallying up the wrong field from the originating spreadsheet. That does mean though that I'll have to do another full run of the db, so that will be done overnight and the update will be ready tomorrow.

toadee fucked around with this message at 14:50 on Apr 17, 2012

# ? Apr 17, 2012 14:46

Bob Shabazz: Oct 21, 2008; At 12:17 a.m. MU police spotted Mauk, 19, run a stop sign while driving his scooter east on Kentucky Boulevard - with two female passengers on board.

Pick Six best league

# ? Apr 17, 2012 15:16

AlleyViper: Sep 15, 2007; Oh, there's plenty of other balls in the sea. Plus, you're not very talented.

Eric Plunk :allears:

# ? Apr 17, 2012 15:21

saffi faildotter: Mar 2, 2007

I agree with Bob

# ? Apr 17, 2012 15:52

Devo: Jul 9, 2001; Caught Cubs Posting

I had a terrible draft and my team sucks. But Fulton County so dingers. Atheistdeals is going to win the league.

# ? Apr 17, 2012 16:02

AlleyViper: Sep 15, 2007; Oh, there's plenty of other balls in the sea. Plus, you're not very talented.

Brook Jacoby at 2B is going to be ugly.

# ? Apr 17, 2012 16:05

Devo: Jul 9, 2001; Caught Cubs Posting

Where we're going we don't need defense

# ? Apr 17, 2012 16:10

toadee: Aug 16, 2003; North American Turtle Boy Love Association

foolish_fool posted:

So I'm just looking at the .csv data, but I suspect that something weird is happening in the RC calculation (and consequently RC27).

OK, actually was able to:

code:

update wis_league_hitting 
set `rc` = ( h + bb - cs + hbp - gidp ) * ( ( h - ( doubles + triples + hr ) ) +  (.26 * ( bb - ibb + hbp )) + ( .52 * ( sh+ sf +sb ) ) ) 
/ ( ab + bb + hbp + sh + sf )

And that seems to have worked ok. RC27 is done just by '( rc / uses ) / 27', so, that's a little kludgey but it's all Ive got and its consistent anyway.

edit: exporting this now, should be in the zip shortly.
edit2: done

toadee fucked around with this message at 16:29 on Apr 17, 2012

# ? Apr 17, 2012 16:20

Atheistdeals.com: Aug 2, 2004

Devo posted:

Atheistdeals is going to win the league.

Here's hoping! I want to destroy every pitcher in Coors.

Only registered members can see post attachments!

# ? Apr 17, 2012 20:59

AlleyViper: Sep 15, 2007; Oh, there's plenty of other balls in the sea. Plus, you're not very talented.

e: I passed on this so everybody move on.

AlleyViper fucked around with this message at 23:43 on Apr 18, 2012

# ? Apr 17, 2012 22:57

gyroball: Jul 29, 2003; Fortunately, the people found a mighty Rosenthal, called Trevor.

Regarding Wascar, 1st year pros are particularly tough to project with low advance scouting. If his splits start going up 1 or 2 points an update, I like the trade. But who knows if one or both of them is already near topped out?

Honestly in Dimaggio I was flying blind getting Iago H. from you last season and trading him for Fred McGehee since they were 1st year pros in the preseason and even with a few updates I can only guess how I did in that series of trades.

How much did Wascar get in IFA? That might help gauge if he's got some bigger flaw.

# ? Apr 17, 2012 23:07

AlleyViper: Sep 15, 2007; Oh, there's plenty of other balls in the sea. Plus, you're not very talented.

gyroball posted:

How much did Wascar get in IFA? That might help gauge if he's got some bigger flaw.

That was something I was trying to gauge myself. He got 13m+ as a bonus.

# ? Apr 17, 2012 23:12

foolish_fool: Jul 22, 2010

toadee posted:

Also recommend any fields you want me to compute and include on the baseline sheet.

This may be a massive pain, but would it be possible to split pitchers on team wins (i.e. spit out a spreadsheet containing only pitchers that played for a team that won at least, say, 65-70 games). I say this because I suspect that pitchers (well... relievers) on low-win teams are mostly pitching fatigued and biasing estimates.

If I'm reading this right, '07 and '09 Cy Morgan are hugely more efficient than any other options.

# ? Apr 18, 2012 07:29

Quasimango: Mar 10, 2011; God damn you.

Well... this is certainly an IFA

And here's one that came IN THE VERY SAME CYCLE OF THE SAME WORLD :psyduck:

Quasimango fucked around with this message at 08:19 on Apr 18, 2012

# ? Apr 18, 2012 08:17

ThatsMyBoye: Nov 21, 2006; I wish that I believed in fate
I wish I didn't sleep so late
I used to be carried in the arms of cheerleaders

$20M starting demand for Pulido, bolstered by the "probably won't sign." Imagine being the leading bidder on him only to have him eventually not sign. Good lord.

# ? Apr 18, 2012 09:04

AlleyViper: Sep 15, 2007; Oh, there's plenty of other balls in the sea. Plus, you're not very talented.

Meanwhile Dimaggio gets Jumbo Cho...

# ? Apr 18, 2012 12:52

Devo: Jul 9, 2001; Caught Cubs Posting

Argh the HBD servers crashed while I was trying to sign free agents

# ? Apr 18, 2012 13:26

AlleyViper: Sep 15, 2007; Oh, there's plenty of other balls in the sea. Plus, you're not very talented.

Alright, here's another player valuation question. I'm trying to rank the top of my board for the Greenwell draft tomorrow morning. The top choice is pretty obvious. After him, though, I'm not sure how to rank the next three guys. Here is who I'm looking at, 13/13 scouting:

Ibanez seems like the obvious #3 of those three but he's intriguing with that projected control, vel/GB, 4 strong pitches and his health/durability/makeup. Schneider could be awesome but I'm not confident about him hitting his splits and I really don't like flyball pitchers. Franco's not going to hit all his projections but the one thing my org does not have at any level is a good corner OF bat.

# ? Apr 18, 2012 23:43

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Franco/Schneider/Ibanez looks like the right order to me and I think there's a huge gap between Schneider and Ibanez. Schneider's numbers are already presently way better than Ibanez and Schneider's the HS guy.

# ? Apr 18, 2012 23:46

AlleyViper: Sep 15, 2007; Oh, there's plenty of other balls in the sea. Plus, you're not very talented.

Yeah, I like Schneider more, Ibanez just looks like the kind of guy who could outperform his numbers if he progresses correctly, though I'm not sure he even would anyway. Those starting splits are blehhhhh.

It may be a non-issue anyway since I'm drafting 8th.

# ? Apr 19, 2012 00:00

Popero: Apr 17, 2001; .406/.553/.735

Quasimango posted:

Well... this is certainly an IFA

I wish I could've signed this Fautino, holy poo poo. He can even run!

# ? Apr 19, 2012 00:42

Quasimango: Mar 10, 2011; God damn you.

I don't think you could go wrong with either Franco or Schneider.

Popero posted:

I wish I could've signed this Fautino, holy poo poo. He can even run!

His ceiling is basically a 1.100 OPS hitter who can play every game, steal 70 bases and play right field. Thank christ no-one in my division has the budget for him.

# ? Apr 19, 2012 02:43

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

He'll steal a lot more than 70 bases unless he's handcuffed by an owner that never runs. Easy triple digits per year on a running team at 100 speed/90+ baserunning getting on base a ton.

# ? Apr 19, 2012 02:46

AlleyViper: Sep 15, 2007; Oh, there's plenty of other balls in the sea. Plus, you're not very talented.

Quasimango posted:

His ceiling is basically a 1.100 OPS hitter

Let's not go too crazy here. He's basically Al Garces, they're actually remarkably similar. Fautino has lower starting splits, though he'll have a better eye. Of course Garces gets dinged playing half his games in Oakland but asking anyone not named Leo Egan to put up an 1.100 OPS every year is a lot.

(now go look at what Garces signed for and try not to let your jaw hit the floor)

# ? Apr 19, 2012 02:49

ThatsMyBoye: Nov 21, 2006; I wish that I believed in fate
I wish I didn't sleep so late
I used to be carried in the arms of cheerleaders

$17M and change?! The hell?!

# ? Apr 19, 2012 03:28

foolish_fool: Jul 22, 2010

toadee posted:

The only caveat I have is that in order to get salary data in here I had to do a simple sql join with the wis provided salary sheets. However, there is nothing in the league spreadsheets that indicates which stint of a player you are looking at. So anyone with multiple seasons has the potential to have an incorrect salary listed. Please let me know of any of these that you find...

I started to find some of these, the really obvious ones for pitchers are in the spreadsheet below. Basically I calculated cost per pitch thrown* and the unreasonably low ones (given non-terrible era) all appear to be a problem.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmFozEGXCxjEdHUxaGQtd3pucVVXQUkwT2dQUjNmQUE

* actually I wrote a program to construct the optimal 10-pitcher staff costing less than 40M and throwing more than 1250 innings, and the results all contained 1890 Elton Chamberlain or 1994 Pedro Martinez or 1909 Cy Morgan and that seemed somewhat odd... I uploaded some (somewhat messy) R code.

# ? Apr 19, 2012 04:01

AlleyViper: Sep 15, 2007; Oh, there's plenty of other balls in the sea. Plus, you're not very talented.

ThatsMyBoye posted:

$17M and change?! The hell?!

Yeah, I dunno how that happened, he was only the fourth biggest bonus that season. You'd have to ask Nasboat how exactly that unfolded.

# ? Apr 19, 2012 04:16

toadee: Aug 16, 2003; North American Turtle Boy Love Association

foolish_fool posted:

I started to find some of these, the really obvious ones for pitchers are in the spreadsheet below. Basically I calculated cost per pitch thrown* and the unreasonably low ones (given non-terrible era) all appear to be a problem.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmFozEGXCxjEdHUxaGQtd3pucVVXQUkwT2dQUjNmQUE

* actually I wrote a program to construct the optimal 10-pitcher staff costing less than 40M and throwing more than 1250 innings, and the results all contained 1890 Elton Chamberlain or 1994 Pedro Martinez or 1909 Cy Morgan and that seemed somewhat odd... I uploaded some (somewhat messy) R code.

yah I think actually Im going to hack together a system to add salaries more intelligently and do another import. I'm planning on taking PA or IP/uses, then comparing it to the PA/162 or IP/162, and whatever has the smallest difference betwee PAorIP/uses compared to actual per 162 is going to be the most likely salary to choose. Still won't be perfect but I think it'll solve a lot of issues. Im curious about this R code, gonna take a look now, I'm not the mathiest guy ever so Im not familiar with a good algorithm for creating the best group for under X $$$.

# ? Apr 19, 2012 11:44

foolish_fool: Jul 22, 2010

toadee posted:

Im not familiar with a good algorithm for creating the best group for under X $$$.

Basically what appears in that code (after a few pretty graphs at the top) is a somewhat naive SA optimization on binary vectors of length 3028 (the number of pitchers in the dataset with >1 cost and >5 uses) with exactly 10 1s in the vector (i.e. corresponding to the 10 pitchers of choice). (Also just not letting it pick combinations that don't throw enough pitches or cost too much) The target is to minimize weighted average ERA (but you could choose whatever else as desired).

I tried to do hitters as well but they are rather more complicated, even without thinking about positions.

foolish_fool fucked around with this message at 12:54 on Apr 19, 2012

# ? Apr 19, 2012 12:50

Ivan Drago: Jan 17, 2003

=bats()

# ? Apr 19, 2012 13:25

AlleyViper: Sep 15, 2007; Oh, there's plenty of other balls in the sea. Plus, you're not very talented.

So, I ended up with Ibanez at pick 8. Vaughn, Franco, Schneider and one other guy I ended up ranking ahead of Ibanez all went in the top five. Now, after the first cycle he is already in wait and see mode for signing a contract. If he raises his demand and I simply don't meet it, will that give me Type D compensation or does he have to refuse to sign for Type D to kick in? There's a decent IFA out there that I could use the extra money from his pick for and I wouldn't mind taking the shot that someone better is there for the 9th pick of the next draft.

# ? Apr 19, 2012 14:32

Devo: Jul 9, 2001; Caught Cubs Posting

You can't withdraw your offer at any time before he refuses. So in theory that could work but that IFA might be gone by the time Ibanez officially declines.

# ? Apr 19, 2012 14:39

AlleyViper: Sep 15, 2007; Oh, there's plenty of other balls in the sea. Plus, you're not very talented.

Withdraw Offer is there for me

But the bigger issue is whether or not it works like that. I don't know if you only get Type D comp if the player himself refuses to sign or if you get it in any scenario where you don't end up signing him.

# ? Apr 19, 2012 14:45

Devo: Jul 9, 2001; Caught Cubs Posting

I'm saying if you click Withdraw Offer at any time you won't get the type D. You've got to sit on that money until he outright rejects.

# ? Apr 19, 2012 14:49

AlleyViper: Sep 15, 2007; Oh, there's plenty of other balls in the sea. Plus, you're not very talented.

Oh, right, I assumed that much, I didn't think I could just withdraw but the way you worded that threw me off.

# ? Apr 19, 2012 14:58

saffi faildotter: Mar 2, 2007

http://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=17349164&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=9.95

gorm

# ? Apr 20, 2012 03:07

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 12:31

Devo: Jul 9, 2001; Caught Cubs Posting

I'm trying to patch together my offense in Hometown before spring training and I'd like some defensive recommendations. I'm in the NL and I'm playing with 14 position players. There's platoons all over the place and I actually think it's going to be pretty fun.

My main question has to do with my outfield against righties.

Irv Rooney
Roland Green
Albert Espinosa

Rooney has been my CF since I took over the team but he's getting older and his range has slipped off enough that I'm not sure he should be playing CF anymore. I picked up Green in a trade last season and he has monster range but not as much glove as Rooney. I'd like Espinosa's bat in the lineup over my other vR options but he doesn't really have the arm I like in RF. Rooney doesn't either for that matter but his is a little better than Espinosa's.

Right now I'm thinking:
CF: Green
RF: Rooney
2B: Espinosa

Thoughts?

# ? Apr 20, 2012 16:43

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > What If Sports: General Discussion, Questions and Comments

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