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DancingMachine posted:I am a moron - making an attempt to catch the falling knife on NOK today. Try catching the falling butter knife that is ANF.
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May 16, 2012 19:38
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:So basically, FB needs to learn how to monetize. If they can, then they are worth a lot more than $100 billion. If they can't, then they're worth a lot less than $100 billion. So do you think they can figure it out? I think they can and so I'll be loading up on Friday. The problem with Facebook monetizing is that they're a content site. People are there to interact with the content that is on Facebook, and they don't want to go elsewhere. That makes any sort of transaction-based advertising extremely difficult. Brand advertising is doable, but that's notoriously harder to pull off and much less lucrative. At the end of the day, to the users, ads are just an intrusion. (there's money in the games and other applications running on top of FB, but I foresee a lot of that casual gaming activity moving to smartphones and tablets instead) Compare that to Google, for instance, where nearly everyone goes there specifically with the intention of being bounced off to another site. Google then sells ads, makes sure they're relevant to the search queries, and makes a mint when users click through. If the ads are good enough, and usually they are, users want to click them. Given those differences, it's hard to see how anyone could think FB is worth even close to half of a GOOG. People see the incredible user engagement, but they don't stop to think about how users actually act once they're on the site. Dr. Eldarion fucked around with this message at 19:44 on May 16, 2012 |
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May 16, 2012 19:39
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Pudgygiant posted:Locked in just under 600 bucks of profit on JPM, man I love it when a bet goes my way. Rolling the dice on WFC to rebound now, if it hits where it was a couple days ago I'll be up roughly a grand in 48 hours of trading. Is day trading really this easy? The market has a way of humbling traders large and small alike. Look at JPM as an example. They thought they were hedging but when you take an outsized position in an index Mr. Market will often correct that sort of behavior. evilwaldo fucked around with this message at 20:59 on May 16, 2012 |
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May 16, 2012 20:56
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Markets a goddamn bloody mess--I got stopped out of ZNGA at 8.70, dumped my ATVI weekly calls, bought again lower, dumped them again, bought them again. No idea what effect facebook will have, but all the news has been terrible, and nothing good is coming.
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May 16, 2012 21:03
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Facebook should adopt the SA business model and ban users at random then charge them 10 bucks to get access to their friends.
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May 16, 2012 21:06
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Elephanthead posted:Facebook should adopt the SA business model and ban users at random then charge them 10 bucks to get access to their friends. How do I "like" this?
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May 16, 2012 21:15
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Chart reading challenge: See if you can spot any trends that can time hedge fund manager David Einhorn's mention of this stock as "overrated" during his speech.
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May 16, 2012 21:19
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Ran across this really cool video graphing the VIX and the SNP and thought fellow traders, gamblers, speculators, investors would like it.quote:"Volatility at World's End" Two Decades of Movement in Markets https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlKWdd_DhW0
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May 16, 2012 21:37
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Ola posted:Chart reading challenge: All Einhorn has to do is short anything, then talk about it sarcastically ("Hey that company has a really great business model right? heh") and then cover the short. Edit: Or else ask question on an earnings call and then, when everyone expects you to announce you're shorting that stock, mention nothing about it and watch the price shoot up 16% like HLF did today. 
COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 23:18 on May 16, 2012 |
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May 16, 2012 21:52
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Eco RI posted:How do I "like" this? That feature will be in Titan. Radium, should have it done any day now...
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May 16, 2012 23:40
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Dr. Eldarion posted:The problem with Facebook monetizing is that they're a content site. People are there to interact with the content that is on Facebook, and they don't want to go elsewhere. That makes any sort of transaction-based advertising extremely difficult. Brand advertising is doable, but that's notoriously harder to pull off and much less lucrative. At the end of the day, to the users, ads are just an intrusion. (there's money in the games and other applications running on top of FB, but I foresee a lot of that casual gaming activity moving to smartphones and tablets instead) But facebooks advertising is so much more specific to each individual user. I assume that from the perspective of an advertiser, facebook is pure gold. You can advertise specifically to an audience at a specific location that's a specific age group and has a specific interest, and so many of them log on daily. It also adds a word by mouth through the sponsored posts in your feed that show what companies your friends go through. It's not infallible, but I don't think you're giving facebooks advertising medium enough credit.
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May 17, 2012 00:15
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Volkerball posted:But facebooks advertising is so much more specific to each individual user. Is it really? I still remember that screenshot, couldn't find it using Google's schtick was "we make the internet work better, whatever you use it for, then we sell ads related to what you use it for", market cap at IPO was 23 billion, in the middle of a 5 year bull market. Facebook might be four times that, in a volatile market, possibly at the tail end of social media hype. Facebook is, as Dr. Eldarion says, a place on the internet, not browsing infrastructure. I don't go on Facebook when I have a product query brewing, I go on it to see what my e-friends are doing and any ad is out of context. That's not to say I'll never find a purchase there, but Google puts the ads inline with my vector from desire to purchase, Facebook is dangling ads annoyingly between me and pictures of girls. Came across this while posting, worth a read: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/if-google-can-do-it-why-cant-facebook/article2435052/
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May 17, 2012 01:00
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In other news, I am going on a motorcycle trip to Spain this summer and as such I consider myself as having a short position on the Eurozone crisis. loving CRASH I want cheap jambon, Rioja and gas!
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May 17, 2012 01:10
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Ola posted:Is it really? I still remember that screenshot, couldn't find it using I am really uncomfortable with FB. I use their product and it is ok. I don't do anything big with it, have a small # of acquaintances and log on once a day if Im bored. I have not seen an ad that interests me and the placement is not very good. They have a large network but there is nothing to stop people from moving to something else. I don't like their product for now. I don't want to bet against them as everything is already crazy enough. They aren't GRPN burning through piles of cash with a lovely product. I just don't think this is a good stock to bet on either way, for me at least.
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May 17, 2012 02:13
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lightpole posted:I am really uncomfortable with FB. I use their product and it is ok. I don't do anything big with it, have a small # of acquaintances and log on once a day if Im bored. I have not seen an ad that interests me and the placement is not very good. They have a large network but there is nothing to stop people from moving to something else. I don't like their product for now. This. I'm really uncomfortable with FB but wouldn't bet against them in a world where GRPN has an $8bn market cap and in which instagram was just acquired for $1bn. And speaking of a broken ad model, I actually log on to Facebook most days and still can't ever recall something I've noticed advertised and have definitely never clicked on anything. Most of this is probably due to me using the mobile app for the majority of the time, which still doesn't have anything on it (and is a huge piece of poo poo in general), but this is a problem and a big part of why it doesn't pass my smell test. Further, the service is ubiquitous at this point, how many more users are they going to get? Arent they going to drive people away as they try to monitize? The technicals suck and there is going to be a new, new thing at some point as well. I'm staying away. R.A. Dickey fucked around with this message at 04:48 on May 17, 2012 |
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May 17, 2012 04:45
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I just saw a recaptcha when trying to post something on fb...
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May 17, 2012 14:40
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R.A. Dickey posted:This. I'm really uncomfortable with FB but wouldn't bet against them in a world where GRPN has an $8bn market cap and in which instagram was just acquired for $1bn. And speaking of a broken ad model, I actually log on to Facebook most days and still can't ever recall something I've noticed advertised and have definitely never clicked on anything. Most of this is probably due to me using the mobile app for the majority of the time, which still doesn't have anything on it (and is a huge piece of poo poo in general), but this is a problem and a big part of why it doesn't pass my smell test. Further, the service is ubiquitous at this point, how many more users are they going to get? Arent they going to drive people away as they try to monitize? The technicals suck and there is going to be a new, new thing at some point as well. I'm staying away. FB, as it exists today, is not a company that I would want to own. When I really think about their current ad system, they have it conveniently setup in its own pane to the right that I have effectively taught my brain to ignore. As soon as they start pushing that pane into the rest of the fields I will most likely stop using the website entirely. It is already to the point where I ask myself daily why I even bother. My friends are loving boring and I'd rather pay attention to companies/celebrities I am genuinely interested in on Twitter. The thing that intrigues me most about Facebook is that they have been compiling a staff of super engineers over the past 3-4 years. They are always mentioned in the same line as Apple and Google as places every SW engineer dreams of working at. It seems like the talent is greater than the product at this point and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see them produce something revolutionary under the right leadership. I don't have much faith in Zuckerburg doing anything fantastic at this point but who knows what is going on behind the scenes there.
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May 17, 2012 14:48
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 CHK continues it's desperate search for something even remotely resembling a bottom. It's just too bad I have a lot of friends who are going to be wiped out when CHK finally goes tits up.
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May 17, 2012 15:09
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resident posted:FB, as it exists today, is not a company that I would want to own. When I really think about their current ad system, they have it conveniently setup in its own pane to the right that I have effectively taught my brain to ignore. As soon as they start pushing that pane into the rest of the fields I will most likely stop using the website entirely. It is already to the point where I ask myself daily why I even bother. My friends are loving boring and I'd rather pay attention to companies/celebrities I am genuinely interested in on Twitter. I don't understand "it is not a company I would want to own". Surely for 1$ a share you would be all over it? What about 10cents? At what price would you own it?
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May 17, 2012 15:10
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Something lawful posted:I don't understand "it is not a company I would want to own". Surely for 1$ a share you would be all over it? What about 10cents? At what price would you own it? I don't know if I can speak for resident, but when I say I don't want to own a company, I mean that its shares are perfectly price inelastic to me. Whether it would cost me $0.01 or $100 per share, I don't want it. If it cost $0.00 per share, then sure, I'd take all I can get. But I feel the same way about prostitutes.
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May 17, 2012 15:51
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Why buy FB when you can buy GOOG and have a company that is already up a decade of R&D. Goog has sort of transformed themselves into a commercial R&D company with their self driving cars and whatever that pair of computer glasses they have on top of any other stuff they might be hiding. FB apparently hasn't even perfected their ad targeting algorithms. I just don't see what you could want to buy FB for over GOOG other than the fact FB has a bunch more users. But as we've seen from eyeball economy companies over the years, the eyeballs can shift somewhere else rather quickly and FB just doesn't have anything else in their product portfolio yet and are burning through their cash paying rediculous premiums for things.
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May 17, 2012 16:11
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Something lawful posted:I don't understand "it is not a company I would want to own". Surely for 1$ a share you would be all over it? What about 10cents? At what price would you own it? To clarify, I don't want to own it at the IPO price and until they clearly show they can monetize without depending on users to click poorly targeted/placed ads or play Farmville I wouldn't want to own them at any price. Despite an insane user base, I think their current business case is really loving stupid. My use of Facebook has decreased as a function of my membership time (joined Dec 2004). Many users have just joined within the past 2-3 years. I suspect that their use pattern will be similar as the novelty wears off. edit: I also believe that Twitter has a much more unique environment for potential advertising as it is mostly focused on real time usage. I would buy shares of Twitter before Facebook if they were to IPO. The only case I have found for Facebook is "what if!?" Well, what if I buy Apple and they find out that a giant gold reserve exists under the Infinite Loop tomorrow? Great, I got lucky. resident fucked around with this message at 16:25 on May 17, 2012 |
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May 17, 2012 16:16
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Jack posted:Why buy FB when you can buy GOOG and have a company that is already up a decade of R&D. The other thing to remember is that GOOG is furiously pursuing the social media market. If Facebook ever starts to seriously monetize their user base, it is going to really piss people off (as is usually the case). If GOOG is smart, they will capitalize on it and try to poach users. This is going to pose a serious problem to FB in my opinion. Google+ is definitely a niche service right now, but it has the potential to be a competitor if Facebook starts to lose face.
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May 17, 2012 17:21
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resident posted:To clarify, I don't want to own it at the IPO price and until they clearly show they can monetize without depending on users to click poorly targeted/placed ads or play Farmville I wouldn't want to own them at any price. Despite an insane user base, I think their current business case is really loving stupid. My use of Facebook has decreased as a function of my membership time (joined Dec 2004). Many users have just joined within the past 2-3 years. I suspect that their use pattern will be similar as the novelty wears off. This was another worry of mine. I just dont expect their current product to be viable long term. If you push ads, Im leaving. If you become extremely commercial, Im leaving. If you stay the same, Im leaving. The problem is they have the talent to come up with something that will be viable for an extended period along with the cash and the time to do it. Edit: I also forgot about the mobile which is bad cause thats where I spend most of my FB time and where most others probably do as well. Their iPad ap was just the phone ap with a phone sized window on the screen for a long time. lightpole fucked around with this message at 18:22 on May 17, 2012 |
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May 17, 2012 18:04
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Facebook's end game is not to monetize facebook.com, that would be stupid. The ads are there to keep the company profitable while the master plan falls into place. Facebook wants all software to use their APIs and their data. They want everything you do, online and offline, to be part of their data feed. It's hard to imagine how this is *not* going to come to pass, and once it does, anything using Facebook's technology and data will have to pay for it.
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May 17, 2012 19:06
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This loving week 
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May 17, 2012 19:20
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nebby posted:It's hard to imagine how this is *not* going to come to pass, and once it does, anything using Facebook's technology and data will have to pay for it. At least facebook has over taken APPL in this forum as far as post count goes. I sure hope to hell I don't have to sign up to facebook ever to take a poo poo. Please enter your facebook id to lift toilet lid. Status, pinching a loaf.
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May 17, 2012 19:35
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Just saw a story on Yahoo, even with the increase in shares and price, there is nothing left for regular investors tomorrow. It will all be based off of what is sold from those who have already snapped up deciding to sell. http://tinyurl.com/bu435v2
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May 17, 2012 19:50
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Bill proposed that would apply 30% tax to rich ex-pats http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17/schumer-proposes-tax-on-people-like-facebook-s-severin.html quote:U.S. Senator Charles Schumer proposed legislation that would impose a 30 percent capital gains tax on people like Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin unless they show they didn’t renounce their U.S. citizenship to avoid taxes. This, though, was hilarious: U.S. Senator Chuck Shumer posted:"Eduardo Saverin wants to de-friend the United States of America," Schumer said. "Sen. Casey and I have a status update for him: Pay your taxes in full or don't ever try to visit the U.S. again."
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May 17, 2012 20:02
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Some dad put all his daughter's college savings into FB. What a piece of poo poo.
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May 17, 2012 21:17
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:Some dad put all his daughter's college savings into FB. What a piece of poo poo. I guess you mean he got into the IPO. If he sells tomorrow, I don't think he's a piece of poo poo.
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May 17, 2012 21:21
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Baddog posted:I guess you mean he got into the IPO. If he sells tomorrow, I don't think he's a piece of poo poo. No sorry, they're going to buy tomorrow and hold it. I thought that too and had to reread the story. Here's the story: http://www.businessinsider.com/oh-please-no-this-guy-wants-to-bet-his-daughters-college-fund-on-the-facebook-ipo-2012-5 Although now he's saying he might wait.
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May 17, 2012 22:10
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I'm really looking forward to seeing how the first couple of days play out what with people grabbing it initially because of the hype, others selling their ridiculously overpriced shares after the first wave, people looking to short, etc. There's no way it won't be a clusterfuck one way or another.
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May 17, 2012 22:13
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Did anyone get any FB IPO shares on E*Trade? My conditional order history is now empty, but I didn't receive any notices one way or another.
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May 17, 2012 22:15
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Benminnn posted:Did anyone get any FB IPO shares on E*Trade? My conditional order history is now empty, but I didn't receive any notices one way or another. I read that they ran out of shares and had to stop taking new orders. Don't know if they also had to cancel some too.
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May 17, 2012 22:23
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Benminnn posted:Did anyone get any FB IPO shares on E*Trade? My conditional order history is now empty, but I didn't receive any notices one way or another. I still see it in the history, its got a N/A under change/cancel now though. They're probably processing everyone right now, seeing which conditional offers actually go through or not (limit price, number of shares, funds available, etc). Hopefully we'll see soon (I wouldn't put the chances very high on getting any though). I don't want to have to get up early to sell tomorrow if I don't have to.
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May 17, 2012 22:23
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It'll be a good lesson on the stock market for her. The lesson being that it's totally awesome.
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May 17, 2012 22:23
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All of these casual investors are making shorting the stock attractive.
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May 17, 2012 23:38
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It's going to be very tempting to play FB all day with 50k or so. But realistically it's going to be all over the place, making it purely a gamble. Also pretty out of practice with the whole momentum scalping thing.
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May 18, 2012 02:24
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I have never bought any stock and know very little about it, but when I heard FB was going IPO at $38, I was considering dropping a few hundred in and seeing how things panned out over the span of a few weeks/months. I stopped by here to get some recommendations for online brokers and to get some quick and dirty information, but from reading the last page, it seems like I couldn't even buy at 38 if I wanted to because all the stock is already bought (even though it doesn't go on sale until tomorrow)? How insanely stupid would it be for a complete novice to sink cash into FB with no knowledge of markets at all?
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May 18, 2012 04:01
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