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Armyman25
Sep 6, 2005
So, what is the correct amount of debt to carry?

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Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

Armyman25 posted:

So, what is the correct amount of debt to carry?

If my calculations are correct... ten.

Sarion
Dec 24, 2003

Armyman25 posted:

So, what is the correct amount of debt to carry?

Generally its expressed as a ratio of Debt to GDP. 60-65% is. What I see listed as sustainable; but I'm not an economist so I don't know how that number is determined, and I suspect there are plenty of economists who will tell you a different number. Right now we are around 75% and most seem to agree that is too high. The key though is that fixing that number doesn't mean needing to run a surplus for years on end. It means running deficits that cause the nominal debt to increase more slowly than GDP increases.

Blindeye
Sep 22, 2006

I can't believe I kissed you!
Okay, can anyone source the whole Fannie and Freddie were going to be stopped 17 times by Republicans thing? All I can find was Chuck Hagel's bill for their regulatory structure to be evaluated in 2006 that didn't go anywhere because other reviews of their structure proved favorable.

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

Sarion posted:

Generally its expressed as a ratio of Debt to GDP. 60-65% is. What I see listed as sustainable; but I'm not an economist so I don't know how that number is determined, and I suspect there are plenty of economists who will tell you a different number. Right now we are around 75% and most seem to agree that is too high. The key though is that fixing that number doesn't mean needing to run a surplus for years on end. It means running deficits that cause the nominal debt to increase more slowly than GDP increases.

Having an economy strong enough to run surpluses for years on end would certainly help though. Getting debt down to zero is actually a frightening thought that the Clinton administration had to start thinking about. A world with no treasury bonds would be unprecedented in modern finance and possibly wreck the international bond market and leave the Fed spinning its wheels helplessly.

Also, Paul Krugman would be quick to point out that Japan's Debt to GDP ratio is over 200% and they are still borrowing at interest rates below 2%. Obviously we'd like to avoid that situation, but sovereign debtors, i.e. countries that borrow in their own currency, are incredibly resilient to high debt levels. The great defaulters (Argentina, Greece) all borrowed in someone else's currency.

archangelwar
Oct 28, 2004

Teaching Moments

Blindeye posted:

Okay, can anyone source the whole Fannie and Freddie were going to be stopped 17 times by Republicans thing? All I can find was Chuck Hagel's bill for their regulatory structure to be evaluated in 2006 that didn't go anywhere because other reviews of their structure proved favorable.

Given that Freddie and Fannie have nearly gently caress-all to do with the housing crisis, then I would say any efforts by Republicans to "stop them" was nothing more than a red herring and political ploy, even if it were true.

myron cope
Apr 21, 2009

kitten smoothie posted:

Also, Obama's dog flies in his own jet

This really bothers me. I'm sure it bothers all of you. I don't care about the story, but how they say "Barack Hussein Obama" We get it, you think he's a Muslim. Nobody says a president's name that way. We only called George Bush II "W" because otherwise it would confuse us with his dad! And we didn't call him George WALKER Bush everytime anyway. The only other one was John Quincy Adams, again to not confuse him with his dad.

I understand that there are people who object to Obama for purely logical (and legitimate) reasons. Saying HUSSEIN marks you as a racist.

(I didn't need to explain that to anyone in this thread it just bothers me :()

RagnarokAngel
Oct 5, 2006

Black Magic Extraordinaire
I like it. It's like a huge flashing *IGNORE THIS PERSON* sign.

Strudel Man
May 19, 2003
ROME DID NOT HAVE ROBOTS, FUCKWIT

Sarion posted:

What's more, running a surplus is a bad idea too because it means that the Government is pulling money out of the economy through taxes and not reinvesting it in growth which then puts the money back into the economy in the short term and grows it in the long term.
God, no. The dangers of debt may be somewhat overblown, but a country cannot run deficits forever without issue; a favorable rate of interest is not no interest. As of 2011, we were spending $227 billion, 6% of the federal budget, on interest, and I'm sure everyone can think of something that they'd rather use that money for.

While running a surplus is nominally 'bad' for the economy, combining this with the fact that you can't take out more and more debt forever leads naturally to the Keynesian notion of countercyclical spending - you take on debt when the economy is bad in order to spur it going again, and you run surpluses when the economy is good, when it can 'take the hit,' in order to keep state finances in order for the next downturn.

Do not, for the love of god, confuse "deficit spending is desirable during a recession" for "deficit spending is desirable always and forever."

Sarion posted:

The key though is that fixing that number doesn't mean needing to run a surplus for years on end. It means running deficits that cause the nominal debt to increase more slowly than GDP increases.
The US's annual GDP growth over the past decade has been about 2%, with some rather large upswings and nasty drops. U.S. debt is already over 100% of GDP. Even if we took on literally no new debt at all, it would take 25 years for economic growth to drop that to 60% of GDP. The risk of another significant economic disturbance in that time which would require substantial additional debt is, to put it lightly, high.

Strudel Man fucked around with this message at 18:48 on May 20, 2012

jojoinnit
Dec 13, 2010

Strength and speed, that's why you're a special agent.

TinTower posted:

Whenever I hear someone use the Second Law to disprove evolution, I say "well, I agree. For evolution to occur on Earth there needs to be a massive source of energy that can cover the entire planet. Akin to this submission to FSTDT:

You'll have to forgive me for pulling stuff a couple pages back but I've been catching up on this thread. The guy who originally posted that also posted a follow-up explaining why the sun doesn't count. I went to the original forum and found it, because I loathe myself.

awesomestnerd posted:

Sorry, my mistake guys, I didn't explain why the Sun doesn't count. Here is the info on that from ChristianAnswers.net:

Is Energy the Key?
To create any kind of upward, complex organization in a closed system requires outside energy and outside information. Evolutionists maintain that the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics does not prevent Evolution on Earth, since this planet receives outside energy from the Sun. Thus, they suggest that the Sun's energy helped create the life of our beautiful planet. However, is the simple addition of energy all that is needed to accomplish this great feat?

Compare a living plant with a dead one. Can the simple addition of energy make a completely dead plant live?

A dead plant contains the same basic structures as a living plant. It once used the Sun's energy to temporarily increase its order and grow and produce stems, leaves, roots, and flowers - all beginning from a single seed.

If there is actually a powerful Evolutionary force at work in the universe, and if the open system of Earth makes all the difference, why does the Sun's energy not make a truly dead plant become alive again (assuming a sufficient supply of water, light, and the like)?

What actually happens when a dead plant receives energy from the Sun? The internal organization in the plant decreases; it tends to decay and break apart into its simplest components. The heat of the Sun only speeds the disorganization process.

You were born perfect, now I don't mean perfect like muscly body and everything is the "normal" conditions. I mean perfect as in you haven't sinned. I doubt that anybody has come out of their mother and shouted the f word.

In response to Crimson King: Of course we use science to prove you wrong, but of course you just deny it. Jesus is the son of God so therefore can perform miracles. Raising from the dead is nothing short of a miracle. Creationists have their essential beliefs about God, and take those views and put them to use when they find scientific evidence. Those views more than always agree with the evidence.

Also, in respect to that picture of Air Force One flying near the Statue of Liberty, why did a staffer get fired over that? Is it just because the imagery of a plane being that close to Manhattan is "too soon"? I can't imagine it was his decision on the flight path.

Perestroika
Apr 8, 2010

Arglebargle III posted:

Having an economy strong enough to run surpluses for years on end would certainly help though. Getting debt down to zero is actually a frightening thought that the Clinton administration had to start thinking about. A world with no treasury bonds would be unprecedented in modern finance and possibly wreck the international bond market and leave the Fed spinning its wheels helplessly.

Also, Paul Krugman would be quick to point out that Japan's Debt to GDP ratio is over 200% and they are still borrowing at interest rates below 2%. Obviously we'd like to avoid that situation, but sovereign debtors, i.e. countries that borrow in their own currency, are incredibly resilient to high debt levels. The great defaulters (Argentina, Greece) all borrowed in someone else's currency.

Since you seem to be fairly knowledgeable about that stuff and I'm not, I'd like to ask: What is in it for the creditors, specifically those that don't actually make a profit by loaning that money? Is it really just that it's pretty much a 100% safe investment, that they are completely guaranteed to get that money back by the set date? I barely know anything about large-scale economics, so it kind of blows my mind that this certainity would be so unique to treasury bonds.

Strudel Man
May 19, 2003
ROME DID NOT HAVE ROBOTS, FUCKWIT

Perestroika posted:

Since you seem to be fairly knowledgeable about that stuff and I'm not, I'd like to ask: What is in it for the creditors, specifically those that don't actually make a profit by loaning that money? Is it really just that it's pretty much a 100% safe investment, that they are completely guaranteed to get that money back by the set date? I barely know anything about large-scale economics, so it kind of blows my mind that this certainity would be so unique to treasury bonds.
They do make a profit, it's just a very slight one. It's a safe place to put money without losing much to inflation.

DarkHorse
Dec 13, 2006

Nap Ghost
While that response is funny enough for its complete misunderstanding of thermodynamics, biology, chemistry, and a few other sciences, and its abuse of moving the goalposts is rage-inducing, the best part is this line:

quote:

You were born perfect, now I don't mean perfect like muscly body and everything is the "normal" conditions. I mean perfect as in you haven't sinned. I doubt that anybody has come out of their mother and shouted the f word.
This is wrong by every form of Christian theology and eschatology I know of. Adam and Eve were "born" perfect, but every human since then has been born with the taint of original sin - at least according to Christianity. It's only through Christ's sacrifice, the sacrifice of an innocent lamb, that the corruption of humanity is redeemed in God's eyes.

The closest it comes to something I'm aware of is modern psychology and the idea of children each being a tabula rasa, a blank slate that is only corrupted later by the influence of the world. Moron can't get his own religion right. (Edit: by "modern" I meant a comparatively recent development, not that it's a tenet of actual psychology in modern practice. The blank slate theory has been disproven in so many ways it doesn't really get discussed much)

Really though, I'm having trouble not dissolving into a puddle of spleen when the guy goes from "If 2nd Law, then how order from evolution? :viggo:" When it's pointed out that 2nd Law doesn't apply unless you include the entire sun and the unfathomable amount of entropy generated by it, suddenly the argument is "If sun, then how death?" I hate moving goalposts! :argh:

DarkHorse fucked around with this message at 19:52 on May 20, 2012

The Dark One
Aug 19, 2005

I'm your friend and I'm not going to just stand by and let you do this!
Infants are entirely focused on themselves. They have to learn where the boundary between their body and the universe exists, and later, that people don't just exist to feed and nurture them. It's mostly the fact that toddlers are too weak to do much damage that mitigates their incredible propensity for violence.

Kids are charming, but their egocentrism and lack of impulse control would be the hallmarks of a serious personality disorder in an adult. It's no wonder ancient societies came up with that the 'born a sinner' stuff. :v:

myron cope
Apr 21, 2009

DarkHorse posted:

While that response is funny enough for its complete misunderstanding of thermodynamics, biology, chemistry, and a few other sciences, and its abuse of moving the goalposts is rage-inducing, the best part is this line:
This is wrong by every form of Christian theology and eschatology I know of. Adam and Eve were "born" perfect, but every human since then has been born with the taint of original sin - at least according to Christianity. It's only through Christ's sacrifice, the sacrifice of an innocent lamb, that the corruption of humanity is redeemed in God's eyes.

Why are we still being held accountable for Adam and Eve's sin? This is a mostly serious question (although perhaps in the wrong thread). I'm not religious at all, is the reason just BECAUSE?

Spalec
Apr 16, 2010

myron cope posted:

Why are we still being held accountable for Adam and Eve's sin? This is a mostly serious question (although perhaps in the wrong thread). I'm not religious at all, is the reason just BECAUSE?

Because they need an explanation for why Gods "perfect" design suffers horribly in childbirth.

The only alternative is God is a spiteful dick. But the story of passover supports that argument too...

Armyman25
Sep 6, 2005

myron cope posted:

Why are we still being held accountable for Adam and Eve's sin? This is a mostly serious question (although perhaps in the wrong thread). I'm not religious at all, is the reason just BECAUSE?

http://www.vatican.va/archive/ccc_css/archive/catechism/p1s2c1p7.htm

Catholic Catechism posted:

The consequences of Adam's sin for humanity

402 All men are implicated in Adam's sin, as St. Paul affirms: "By one man's disobedience many (that is, all men) were made sinners": "sin came into the world through one man and death through sin, and so death spread to all men because all men sinned."289 The Apostle contrasts the universality of sin and death with the universality of salvation in Christ. "Then as one man's trespass led to condemnation for all men, so one man's act of righteousness leads to acquittal and life for all men."290

403 Following St. Paul, the Church has always taught that the overwhelming misery which oppresses men and their inclination towards evil and death cannot be understood apart from their connection with Adam's sin and the fact that he has transmitted to us a sin with which we are all born afflicted, a sin which is the "death of the soul".291 Because of this certainty of faith, the Church baptizes for the remission of sins even tiny infants who have not committed personal sin.292

404 How did the sin of Adam become the sin of all his descendants? The whole human race is in Adam "as one body of one man".293 By this "unity of the human race" all men are implicated in Adam's sin, as all are implicated in Christ's justice. Still, the transmission of original sin is a mystery that we cannot fully understand. But we do know by Revelation that Adam had received original holiness and justice not for himself alone, but for all human nature. By yielding to the tempter, Adam and Eve committed a personal sin, but this sin affected the human nature that they would then transmit in a fallen state.294 It is a sin which will be transmitted by propagation to all mankind, that is, by the transmission of a human nature deprived of original holiness and justice. And that is why original sin is called "sin" only in an analogical sense: it is a sin "contracted" and not "committed" - a state and not an act.

405 Although it is proper to each individual,295 original sin does not have the character of a personal fault in any of Adam's descendants. It is a deprivation of original holiness and justice, but human nature has not been totally corrupted: it is wounded in the natural powers proper to it, subject to ignorance, suffering and the dominion of death, and inclined to sin - an inclination to evil that is called concupiscence". Baptism, by imparting the life of Christ's grace, erases original sin and turns a man back towards God, but the consequences for nature, weakened and inclined to evil, persist in man and summon him to spiritual battle.

406 The Church's teaching on the transmission of original sin was articulated more precisely in the fifth century, especially under the impulse of St. Augustine's reflections against Pelagianism, and in the sixteenth century, in opposition to the Protestant Reformation. Pelagius held that man could, by the natural power of free will and without the necessary help of God's grace, lead a morally good life; he thus reduced the influence of Adam's fault to bad example. The first Protestant reformers, on the contrary, taught that original sin has radically perverted man and destroyed his freedom; they identified the sin inherited by each man with the tendency to evil (concupiscentia), which would be insurmountable. The Church pronounced on the meaning of the data of Revelation on original sin especially at the second Council of Orange (529)296 and at the Council of Trent (1546)

Armyman25 fucked around with this message at 23:09 on May 20, 2012

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa

Spalec posted:

Because they need an explanation for why Gods "perfect" design suffers horribly in childbirth.

The only alternative is God is a spiteful dick. But the story of passover supports that argument too...
Because keeping a grudge for six thousand years and holding every single human being responsible for the crimes of two of their ancestors doesn't suggest God is a spiteful dick?

Strudel Man
May 19, 2003
ROME DID NOT HAVE ROBOTS, FUCKWIT

RoboChrist 9000 posted:

Because keeping a grudge for six thousand years and holding every single human being responsible for the crimes of two of their ancestors doesn't suggest God is a spiteful dick?
Not at all. It's our fault, see, not His.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Arglebargle III posted:

Having an economy strong enough to run surpluses for years on end would certainly help though. Getting debt down to zero is actually a frightening thought that the Clinton administration had to start thinking about. A world with no treasury bonds would be unprecedented in modern finance and possibly wreck the international bond market and leave the Fed spinning its wheels helplessly.

Also, Paul Krugman would be quick to point out that Japan's Debt to GDP ratio is over 200% and they are still borrowing at interest rates below 2%. Obviously we'd like to avoid that situation, but sovereign debtors, i.e. countries that borrow in their own currency, are incredibly resilient to high debt levels. The great defaulters (Argentina, Greece) all borrowed in someone else's currency.

Debt-to-GDP isn't really a useful figure and can be actively harmful though (UK posters will remember that graph the Tories were touting around before the election "proving" the UK was in worse shape than Greece et. al. because we were carrying higher debt as a ratio of GDP). 200% of GDP when it's at 1 or 2% and your economy is growing at or higher than that rate isn't a problem. 50% or less of GDP at 10% when your economy is contracting will gently caress you up in short order. Like you say, other factors like the currency you've borrowed in and your currencies relation to it are really important too.

It also depends what you're doing with that debt (and this is the only place where the household debt comparison is useful). A country borrowing 10% of their GDP to build infrastructure (or even to bail out a ridiculously corrupt banking system that threatened to take down the whole world economy with it) is a very different beast from a country borrowing 10% of their GDP to rectify a current account deficit (for example caused by cutting taxes and going to war twice in 2 years on the other side of the world...).

Cowslips Warren
Oct 29, 2005

What use had they for tricks and cunning, living in the enemy's warren and paying his price?

Grimey Drawer

RoboChrist 9000 posted:

Because keeping a grudge for six thousand years and holding every single human being responsible for the crimes of two of their ancestors doesn't suggest God is a spiteful dick?

You know how the abusive one in a relationship screams how you'll never do better, slaps you around and then asks why you make Him hurt you? It's like that times a billion.

Why is there pain and suffering, Lord?

BECAUSE YOU MAKE ME DO THIS TO YOU. YOU MAKE ME DO THIS TO YOU!

RagnarokAngel
Oct 5, 2006

Black Magic Extraordinaire
I always saw it as sorta like a genetics thing, passes down to every human from Adam.

I'm not religious but I think anyone will admit we are predisposed to "sin" on alot of occasions. Now we're not going to murder anyone but who hasn't been tempted to steal something small on a few occasions? (This doesn't even count that "sin" is a relative term that varies from culture to culture). The idea is that we're predisposed to do bad things sometimes, because we're not perfect, and society/God teaches us to not do these things.

Not every Christian sect believe you must worship "The One True God" to be saved. The Catholic Church of all institutions believes you can get into Heaven even if you don't believe in God just by not being a dick.

DarkHorse
Dec 13, 2006

Nap Ghost
The reason for it is to solve the problem of theodicy: why bad things happen to good people when there's an omnipotent, omniscient, and omnibenevolent god.

I'm not really a fan of the explanation, but when you're starting from the point that God exists and has those three qualities you have to come up for some reason why things suck.

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

Perestroika posted:

What is in it for the creditors, specifically those that don't actually make a profit by loaning that money? Is it really just that it's pretty much a 100% safe investment, that they are completely guaranteed to get that money back by the set date? I barely know anything about large-scale economics, so it kind of blows my mind that this certainity would be so unique to treasury bonds.

The certainty is part of it, since sovereign debtors have no real reason to ever default on their debts or even miss interest payments because they can always print money to cover it. A big factor is that some investors have truly huge amounts of dollars lying around that they can't or won't sell for a variety of reasons. Parking that enormous amount of money in U.S. Treasuries makes a lot of sense because it's a guaranteed way to make about enough interest to keep up with inflation.

For example China, because of its huge trade surplus with the U.S. has a zillion dollars just sitting around. They can't sell them without hurting the value of the dollar, which they don't want to do for trade reasons, but if they literally sit on them they will lose value. China also really can't afford for the U.S. to run out of money, because then who will buy its exports? So China parks truly enormous amounts of money in U.S. Treasuries. It gets to keep its dollar assets at the same real value over time through interest payments, and it makes sure that the U.S. has enough money to keep buying Chinese products.

This is the huge "in hock to China" debt that people like to get worked up about by the way. It's a result of China having huge dollar assets that need a home, not some sort of crafty Chinese ploy. If China refused to roll over all those t-bills tomorrow it would have gobs and gobs of dollars and suddenly nowhere to put them, and the U.S. would probably print money, so either way the value of the dollar would go down and China would lose a lot of money while simultaneously hurting its export trade with the U.S. This is why Paul Krugman remarked "China has an empty water pistol to our heads." in response to the panicked "China has a gun to our heads." pundits.

Also just for reference China holds I think 7% of U.S. debt, while again Americans hold 70%. Pundits of course do not mention this, they just say "biggest creditor" because it is technically true. The talking heads on TV want you to be scared so you'll keep watching and so you'll be more receptive to their political ideas, and if you have to stay ignorant to be scared then by god they'll keep you ignorant.

Arglebargle III fucked around with this message at 05:34 on May 21, 2012

Bruce Leroy
Jun 10, 2010

Arglebargle III posted:

The certainty is part of it, since sovereign debtors have no real reason to ever default on their debts or even miss interest payments because they can always print money to cover it. A big factor is that some investors have truly huge amounts of dollars lying around that they can't or won't sell for a variety of reasons. Parking that enormous amount of money in U.S. Treasuries makes a lot of sense because it's a guaranteed way to make about enough interest to keep up with inflation.

For example China, because of its huge trade surplus with the U.S. has a zillion dollars just sitting around. They can't sell them without hurting the value of the dollar, which they don't want to do for trade reasons, but if they literally sit on them they will lose value. China also really can't afford for the U.S. to run out of money, because then who will buy its exports? So China parks truly enormous amounts of money in U.S. Treasuries. It gets to keep its dollar assets at the same real value over time through interest payments, and it makes sure that the U.S. has enough money to keep buying Chinese products.

This is the huge "in hock to China" debt that people like to get worked up about by the way. It's a result of China having huge dollar assets that need a home, not some sort of crafty Chinese ploy. If China refused to roll over all those t-bills tomorrow it would have gobs and gobs of dollars and suddenly nowhere to put them, and the U.S. would probably print money, so either way the value of the dollar would go down and China would lose a lot of money while simultaneously hurting its export trade with the U.S. This is why Paul Krugman remarked "China has an empty water pistol to our heads." in response to the panicked "China has a gun to our heads." pundits.

Also just for reference China holds I think 7% of U.S. debt, while again Americans hold 70%. Pundits of course do not mention this, they just say "biggest creditor" because it is technically true. The talking heads on TV want you to be scared so you'll keep watching and so you'll be more receptive to their political ideas, and if you have to stay ignorant to be scared then by god they'll keep you ignorant.

I wasn't old enough to be aware of it, but was the xenophobic rhetoric towards Japan in the late 1970s and 1980s similar to that towards the Chinese today? From what little I know of it from history books, the rhetoric looks at least kind of similar.

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

It was worse. Go watch Back to the Future II or whatever. In the 80s everyone knew the Japanese were about to take over the world for poorly articulated reasons.

Kavak
Aug 23, 2009


Arglebargle III posted:

It was worse. Go watch Back to the Future II or whatever. In the 80s everyone knew the Japanese were about to take over the world for poorly articulated reasons.

We beat them Japs in the forties and now they're trying some sneaky long term revenge plan! :bahgawd:

PerniciousKnid
Sep 13, 2006

Sarion posted:

Generally its expressed as a ratio of Debt to GDP. 60-65% is. What I see listed as sustainable; but I'm not an economist so I don't know how that number is determined, and I suspect there are plenty of economists who will tell you a different number. Right now we are around 75% and most seem to agree that is too high. The key though is that fixing that number doesn't mean needing to run a surplus for years on end. It means running deficits that cause the nominal debt to increase more slowly than GDP increases.
The sustainability of debt is determined by the amount of the payments, not the principal. If the payments are zero you can sustain unlimited amounts of debt.

PerniciousKnid previously posted:

The correct question is about, not the affordable notional amount of debt, but the amount of debt interest payments the US could afford.

Interesting note: according to TreasuryDirect.gov, the average annual interest expense for fiscal years 2009-2011 (a.k.a. ObamaTown) was $417bil, and the average for 2006-2008 was $429bil. Probably because the average interest rate on debt dropped from the neighborhood of 5% to around 3% even as the notional debt level increased. Much of the new debt is of course being issued at less than 1%.
Our debt burden actually has stayed the same or decreased in Obama's term.

PerniciousKnid fucked around with this message at 12:47 on May 21, 2012

Sarion
Dec 24, 2003

Strudel Man posted:

God, no. The dangers of debt may be somewhat overblown, but a country cannot run deficits forever without issue; a favorable rate of interest is not no interest. As of 2011, we were spending $227 billion, 6% of the federal budget, on interest, and I'm sure everyone can think of something that they'd rather use that money for.

We already spent that money though. We already got something out of it and continue to benefit from it (presumably). Just because we're paying for it later doesn't mean we could have spent it better. Now, I will agree that in this case you're probably right, because that $227B is probably mostly paying for tax breaks for the wealthy and two wars; neither of which is beneficial to us. But generally, if it's spent well than paying for it later shouldn't be seen as some waste that provides us with no benefit. Sure you could argue the interest itself isn't any real benefit, but since the interest rates are so low, we're practically paying it back at cost. When you factor in inflation, its possible for us to be paying it back below cost.

Strudel Man posted:

While running a surplus is nominally 'bad' for the economy, combining this with the fact that you can't take out more and more debt forever leads naturally to the Keynesian notion of countercyclical spending - you take on debt when the economy is bad in order to spur it going again, and you run surpluses when the economy is good, when it can 'take the hit,' in order to keep state finances in order for the next downturn.

Do not, for the love of god, confuse "deficit spending is desirable during a recession" for "deficit spending is desirable always and forever."

But what's the point of the Surplus? It's just pulling money out of the economy, the debts already have a fixed payment schedule. I guess we could use the Surplus to buy up T-Bills and then just forgive the loan to ourselves or something? Can they even be paid off early? In any case, I still think its a waste. We collectively have access to extremely cheap credit, credit which can be used to invest in infrastructure, education (both K-12 level, and helping more people get through college), and research. All of which pay off in the long run at much better rates than the 1-2% interest we'll be paying for them. Using the debt for boneheaded bullshit like pointless wars and tax cuts for the rich are obviously very bad uses of the debt.

In bad times that spending obviously has to be ramped up. Increased social spending, assistance to the States to prevent State employee cut backs, increased infrastructure spending. All to help spur the economy back out of a recession. But then you cut back in the good times. But that doesn't necessarily mean cutting all the way back to a surplus. We can still make use of the cheap credit to invest in the economy. For example, if our annual debt payments were $500B and we ran a $250B defecit in a good year, then we'd be lowering our total debt in both real and nominal terms.

Strudel Man posted:

The US's annual GDP growth over the past decade has been about 2%, with some rather large upswings and nasty drops. U.S. debt is already over 100% of GDP. Even if we took on literally no new debt at all, it would take 25 years for economic growth to drop that to 60% of GDP. The risk of another significant economic disturbance in that time which would require substantial additional debt is, to put it lightly, high.

That's total debt. I should have been more specific, I'm talking about Public Debt. Total debt includes Intragovernmental debt. Every year payroll taxes are collected to pay for Medicare and Social Security for that year, and there's usually a surplus. That surplus is set aside to help pay for future Medicare and Social Security obligations in years when payroll tax revenues fall short. Of course, sticking them in a checking account would be stupid cause then that cash would be eaten away by decades of inflation. So instead the Government takes that surplus and buys T-Bills with it so that the Medicare and Social Security trust funds collect enough interest to fend off some/all of the effects of inflation. We don't want to pay off this portion of the debt, we want to keep paying interest on it so that there's enough money in the trust funds to still be useful when we need it later.

Anyways, that part of our debt, debt the government owes to itself, is roughly $4.5T. Our Public Debt, the debt we have incurred by spending more than we take in in taxes, is around $11T. Compared to our GDP of around $15T, that's about 75% Debt to GDP. That's the portion of our debt that it is suggested should be 60-65%.



PerniciousKnid posted:

The sustainability of debt is determined by the amount of the payments, not the principal. If the payments are zero you can sustain unlimited amounts of debt.
Our debt burden actually has stayed the same or decreased in Obama's term.

I would agree with this too. Someone asked, "how much debt should we carry", and my answer was that its not a fixed amount but rather relational to GDP. 60-65% is what I've read most commonly, for the US. Every country is different and can carry different amounts of debt. The amount that's acceptable for the US is of course dependent on the interest rate the US is expected to get. But measuring it in terms of annual payments with respect to GDP would work, too. Of course, the two are linked, since the size of the payment is related to both the principle and the interest rate. As goddamnedtwisto pointed out already, if our interest rates suddenly shifted to 10%, we'd be boned with the debt we have now.

I think both work, and Debt to GDP is what I see more often. However, I would say Payment to GDP is probably a better measure than pure Debt to GDP, since it factors in the interest and principle together. It's just not one I've seen offered around before.

myron cope
Apr 21, 2009

Sarion posted:

Anyways, that part of our debt, debt the government owes to itself, is roughly $4.5T.

Sometimes, none of this makes any sense at all. Debt we owe to ourselves :confused:

(I get that somewhere it makes sense, it's just beyond my non-economist brain)

Countblanc
Apr 20, 2005

Help a hero out!
On the topic of debt, while this isn't a forwarded email, I ordered chinese takeout last night and was greeted with this inside my fortune cookie.



It's pretty hard to read thanks to my old-rear end phone, but it says "Blessed are the children, for they shall inherit the national debt." I mean c'mon, seriously? A loving fortune cookie now?

Cybernetic Vermin
Apr 18, 2005

myron cope posted:

Sometimes, none of this makes any sense at all. Debt we owe to ourselves :confused:

(I get that somewhere it makes sense, it's just beyond my non-economist brain)

The social security trust fund operates by buying treasuries, meaning that since it is a government program it is effectively the government just writing IOUs for future social security payments. I would say it is fair to call this debt since it really should be paid back as it becomes necessary. It is also handled by different arms of the government, and social security really cannot possibly place the money anywhere else either way.

Right-wingers tend to simultaneously claim that social security is bankrupt and that the debt is the full 15+ trillion though, which is obviously dishonest since at most one of those are true (which one depends on whether you expect the government to make good on SS or not).

Strudel Man
May 19, 2003
ROME DID NOT HAVE ROBOTS, FUCKWIT

Sarion posted:

We already spent that money though. We already got something out of it and continue to benefit from it (presumably)...When you factor in inflation, its possible for us to be paying it back below cost.
Unlikely. A rate of interest less than the rate of inflation wouldn't provide much in the way of buyers. Or, since treasury bills are sold at auction, will result in lower revenues from the issuance of debt, due to buyers being unwilling to take a loss.

In any case, when debt is used to finance everyday government operations (the way it is with our current, substantially underfunded federal expenditures), it becomes quite arbitrary which spending in particular you count as being funded by the debt. You could claim that we're using the debt to finance our military expenditures, or that we're using it to finance grants to schools - but in reality, it's just being used to keep the engine running overall.

quote:

But what's the point of the Surplus?
The point of a surplus is twofold - to provide a spending cushion, and deliberately to slow the economy in boom times to guard against the emergence of speculative bubbles. When we have debt, a surplus is also used to not reissue bonds to the public immediately upon their repayment, which is something we otherwise do, thus reducing our total debt burden.

quote:

All of which pay off in the long run at much better rates than the 1-2% interest we'll be paying for them. Using the debt for boneheaded bullshit like pointless wars and tax cuts for the rich are obviously very bad uses of the debt.
Using this logic, why don't we just take out as much debt as we possibly can right now, since it'll pay itself off in the long run at much better rates than we pay for it?

The answer, of course, is that it doesn't pay off at better rates - at least, not with any reliability. Much of what debt can pay for is socially desirable without being directly economically advantageous to the federal government.

quote:

For example, if our annual debt payments were $500B and we ran a $250B defecit in a good year, then we'd be lowering our total debt in both real and nominal terms.
That...unless my understanding is grossly mistaken, that would not be considered a deficit. If we paid off $500B worth of bonds without then issuing a new $500B worth, and our income otherwise was $250B in excess of expenditures, then we would be running a $250B surplus. Interest appears in government expenditures, not repayment of principal. We aren't actually paying anything off at all, year-to-year - we're just piling it higher.

quote:

That's total debt.
True. Fair enough.

Shalebridge Cradle
Apr 23, 2008


Countblanc posted:

On the topic of debt, while this isn't a forwarded email, I ordered chinese takeout last night and was greeted with this inside my fortune cookie.



It's pretty hard to read thanks to my old-rear end phone, but it says "Blessed are the children, for they shall inherit the national debt." I mean c'mon, seriously? A loving fortune cookie now?

Listen man they have lucky numbers right there. They're giving you a problem and a solution.

Sarion
Dec 24, 2003

myron cope posted:

Sometimes, none of this makes any sense at all. Debt we owe to ourselves :confused:

(I get that somewhere it makes sense, it's just beyond my non-economist brain)

Yeah, it's screwy. The government routinely takes in more in Payroll taxes than it pays out in Medicare/Social Security payments. So it puts the left over money into a Medicare Trust Fund and Social Security Trust Fund. Rather than letting the money sit there for decades doing nothing, they use it buy Treasuries. This lets the government put the money to work now, and keeps away losses due to inflation. It just hurts sometimes to think that the largest single owner of US Federal Debt, is the US Federal Government.

Also, like Cybernetic Vermin pointed out, it makes the "Social Security is bankrupt" and "the Debt is $15T" claims incompatible. Generally though, Intragovernmental debt is treated separate from Public debt. Part of the reason being that we don't actually want the Intragovernmental Debt to go down. If you think about it, if we "paid off" that $4.5T we owe to Social Security, it would mean we had to have paid out all the excess funds to Medicare/SS recipients. Not that its totally wrong to say we have $15T in debt either. It's just that part (33%) of the debt is weird and doesn't really work the way we usually think of.


Oh, you can put this down as another way US Debt is not like household debt. Out of the maybe $300,000 in debt my family has, I don't owe $100,000 of it to myself.



Countblanc posted:

On the topic of debt, while this isn't a forwarded email, I ordered chinese takeout last night and was greeted with this inside my fortune cookie.



It's pretty hard to read thanks to my old-rear end phone, but it says "Blessed are the children, for they shall inherit the national debt." I mean c'mon, seriously? A loving fortune cookie now?

I thought the Chinese wanted us to take on MORE debt, so that we will become their slaves later! :tinfoil:

particle409
Jan 15, 2008

Thou bootless clapper-clawed varlot!

Arglebargle III posted:

China also really can't afford for the U.S. to run out of money, because then who will buy its exports? So China parks truly enormous amounts of money in U.S. Treasuries. It gets to keep its dollar assets at the same real value over time through interest payments, and it makes sure that the U.S. has enough money to keep buying Chinese products.

Just to expand on this, the Communist Party leaders are deathly afraid of unemployment. If the US suddenly stopped buying Chinese exports, they would have hundreds of thousands of unemployed people rioting in the cities. Walk into any retail store in Beijing, and they already have more employees than they need. One person helps you pick out what you want, then you bring that to another person. They give you a receipt, which you a bring to a third person, who you actually pay for the product.

It's also why China continues to support North Korea. NK is a huge diplomatic pain in the rear end for China, but if it collapses, low-skill refugees will flood into China.

kitten smoothie
Dec 29, 2001

Countblanc posted:

On the topic of debt, while this isn't a forwarded email, I ordered chinese takeout last night and was greeted with this inside my fortune cookie.



It's pretty hard to read thanks to my old-rear end phone, but it says "Blessed are the children, for they shall inherit the national debt." I mean c'mon, seriously? A loving fortune cookie now?

I've been getting this particular gem in fortune cookies every now and then for the last 20 years or so, if not longer.

De Nomolos
Jan 17, 2007

TV rots your brain like it's crack cocaine
Also, as I've been told by family members, the Bureau of the Public Debt HQ is in...CHINATOWN! They LITERALLY sell our debt to Chinamen in CHINATOWN!

Actually it's a few blocks away from there in the Shaw neighborhood, I believe, but that doesn't hammer home the YELLOW PERIL.

Jabor
Jul 16, 2010

#1 Loser at SpaceChem

Strudel Man posted:

Unlikely. A rate of interest less than the rate of inflation wouldn't provide much in the way of buyers. Or, since treasury bills are sold at auction, will result in lower revenues from the issuance of debt, due to buyers being unwilling to take a loss.

Except they literally do. Inflation is currently around 2-3%. 10-year treasuries are currently under 2%, and shorter bills are paying <1% interest.

The important thing is that you're losing less than if you were to just sit on the money, which is really the only other option for a lot of the investors who buy T-bills.

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Strudel Man
May 19, 2003
ROME DID NOT HAVE ROBOTS, FUCKWIT

Jabor posted:

Except they literally do. Inflation is currently around 2-3%. 10-year treasuries are currently under 2%, and shorter bills are paying <1% interest.

Strudel Man posted:

Or, since treasury bills are sold at auction, will result in lower revenues from the issuance of debt
You can keep dropping interest payments, but you'll get less than the face value of the bills.

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