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Ahh AGNC  if only all my stocks were as low maintenance..if Europe continues to be meh then I don't see anyone talking about interest rates for a little while longer.
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Jun 6, 2012 18:44
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I'm considering getting another reit since we have 0% for a while. They already make up 25% of my portfolio so quick someone give me another moderate yielding dividend or alternatively tell me to go for it. Please give logic to support your position.
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Jun 6, 2012 19:07
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveschaefer/2012/06/06/nasdaq-to-cough-up-40-million-for-facebook-ipo-failure-hires-ibm-for-systems-review/ I love this. All these investors pile on the opinion of "its not our fault, Nasdaq hosed up the IPO!". Now Nasdaq is going to call their bluff and reimburse anyone who was actually affected by the trading problems. I wonder who investors will blame next, sure as hell not themselves...
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Jun 6, 2012 19:34
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OGS-Remix posted:Do you have any articles or evidence to support your position? I'd be interested in reading more about why Morgan would be insolvent in such a situation.
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Jun 6, 2012 21:27
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Oh, Joe. You have some great ideas sometimes but then you write this crap: http://www.businessinsider.com/olga-tselinina-2012-6
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Jun 6, 2012 21:51
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OGS-Remix posted:Do you have any articles or evidence to support your position? I'd be interested in reading more about why Morgan would be insolvent in such a situation. Statistics like this really give me pause. If you're genuinely interested im sure there's some other stuff I can dig up for you.
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Jun 6, 2012 22:30
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Here's an interesting news article in Norwegian which will probably be poo poo through google translate: http://www.dn.no/forsiden/naringsliv/article2412203.ece But the subject is interesting anyway. A speculator is suing a bank for closing his levered positions. He took a massive bet on Swiss Francs going down against the Norwegian Krone. He was right on the direction, but perhaps slightly wrong on the timing, which just about every financial bet is.  He rightly thought that CHF was way too hot, as did many other forex speculators. Here's a news article from the pre-peak August days. Who wouldn't think CHF was due a correction? http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/03/markets/swiss_franc/index.htm Not the bank. They freaked out and closed him out at massive losses way up on the August peak. Then just a few weeks later... http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/sep/06/switzerland-pegs-swiss-franc-euro ...CHF got pegged to EUR and his position would have made great profits. The lessons learned are 1) banks are loving morons and 2) don't use leverage. But it will be very interesting to see what the judges say. The speculator is saying he will fight it as long as he's alive.
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Jun 7, 2012 09:35
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Ola posted:Here's an interesting news article in Norwegian which will probably be poo poo through google translate: http://www.dn.no/forsiden/naringsliv/article2412203.ece It's not the bank's job to also speculate on what's going to happen with a currency, position, or whatever. They have risk controls and the guy, I assume I can't read Norwegian, busted his acceptable losses and the bank closed him out. Unless there's intricacies that I'm missing, I don't see how he has any more of a claim than anyone else who had to close a losing position due to unrealized losses that would have otherwise been a winning position had it been held just a bit longer. Used to happen to me more frequently than I would like to admit when I used to prop trade pairs.
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Jun 7, 2012 14:49
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himurak posted:I'm considering getting another reit since we have 0% for a while. They already make up 25% of my portfolio so quick someone give me another moderate yielding dividend or alternatively tell me to go for it. Please give logic to support your position. That's a lot of REITs. I would maybe consider something outside of REITs with a high yield. Three of my favorites right now are T, MO, and MRK. They all yield around 5% with actual growth potential as well. Also AT&T has been killing it so you may want to wait for a dip on that one but I'm pretty in love with that stock right now.
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Jun 7, 2012 14:52
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Turkeybone posted:Ahh AGNC 
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Jun 7, 2012 16:10
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Whenever you enter into a trade or investment, always have an exit price in mind where, if the the price is breached, you admit that you're wrong and get out. I didn't realize lulu was 8x prospective sales and 45x forecast earnings.  
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Jun 7, 2012 19:20
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mik posted:They have risk controls and the guy, I assume I can't read Norwegian, busted his acceptable losses and the bank closed him out. You are probably right, I don't know enough about this that I should have been that bombastic but it's going to court on the basis that the bank violated their agreement.
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Jun 7, 2012 19:25
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:Whenever you enter into a trade or investment, always have an exit price in mind where, if the the price is breached, you admit that you're wrong and get out. I am long LULU. Picked up a few September calls today. They beat expectations for Q1 on revenue and EPS but the lower guidance on Q2 just gives me a chance to pick it up cheaper and make some $$ when it (hopefully) bounces back to the 70 range. They're on track to hit 1.3B in revenue this year which would be what, a 30% increase over last year? I think there is still room for growth here despite their lofty P/E. It's about time LULU brings some cash into my household instead of running up my wife's credit card.
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Jun 7, 2012 20:10
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Kal Torak posted:I am long LULU. Picked up a few September calls today. They beat expectations for Q1 on revenue and EPS but the lower guidance on Q2 just gives me a chance to pick it up cheaper and make some $$ when it (hopefully) bounces back to the 70 range. They're on track to hit 1.3B in revenue this year which would be what, a 30% increase over last year? I think there is still room for growth here despite their lofty P/E. It's waaaaay to overvalued for a yoga pants store.
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Jun 7, 2012 20:15
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:It's waaaaay to overvalued for a yoga pants store. People have been saying that since it crossed $30/share pre-split.
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Jun 7, 2012 20:16
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:It's waaaaay to overvalued for a yoga pants store. As this hedge fund manager says, shorting women's vanity has never worked out too well for him: http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/2012/01/does-my-butt-look-fat-in-this.html Still, trading at insane multiples.
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Jun 7, 2012 21:58
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:It's waaaaay to overvalued for a yoga pants store. I'll be buying some upside calls shortly.
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Jun 7, 2012 22:26
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My room mate is big on LULU. She and all her Crossfit friends are all about the clothes for some reason. Most of it is "it makes my butt look good" basically. Whatever it may be I dont get it and Im not going to argue with it.
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Jun 7, 2012 22:46
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Josh Lyman posted:LULU is as much a yoga pants store as Twitter is a place to tell people about what you're eating. That's a horrible analogy. I think it's gonna go the way of GMCR. Of course, I'm not gonna try to pick a top or anything. But not getting involved either. COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 04:53 on Jun 8, 2012 |
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Jun 8, 2012 04:50
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Computers love a bubble growth stock, until there is a bad earnings report and it crashes to sanity.
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Jun 8, 2012 11:58
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LULU has been getting this rep since it IPO'd what, 5 years ago? Dunno how it will be moving forward, but it's definitely been growing and earning money so far. I bought a small bit of FB right at 26.0x.. figured if "everyone" says it's worth 25 then it wouldn't get there. We'll see how horribly this goes.
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Jun 8, 2012 15:58
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:That's a horrible analogy. I think it's gonna go the way of GMCR. Of course, I'm not gonna try to pick a top or anything. But not getting involved either. Not getting involved? Didn't you just get out of it? Sounds like someone who was very involved and his pride is now wounded. edit: Perhaps I misread your original post on the subject.
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Jun 8, 2012 16:33
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Kal Torak posted:Not getting involved? Didn't you just get out of it? Sounds like someone who was very involved and his pride is now wounded. Nope. I've been looking to short it since the middle of last year. Turkeybone posted:LULU has been getting this rep since it IPO'd what, 5 years ago? Dunno how it will be moving forward, but it's definitely been growing and earning money so far. Yeah I bought at 26.50 yesterday, hoping to ride it to 30.
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Jun 8, 2012 17:00
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:Nope. I've been looking to short it since the middle of last year. I don't mean to be a dick about this, but why would you say this if you weren't in it? COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:Whenever you enter into a trade or investment, always have an exit price in mind where, if the the price is breached, you admit that you're wrong and get out. And if you've been looking to short it for a year now, why would you say this? COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:I didn't realize lulu was 8x prospective sales and 45x forecast earnings. I think that's something you would know if you were actually looking to short it.
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Jun 8, 2012 17:06
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Kal Torak posted:I don't mean to be a dick about this, but why would you say this if you weren't in it? Sure, I said "have an exit price in mind" because I've been rereading market wizards and it's one of the advice given and I thought it was fantastic. It had nothing to do with any of my current trades. As for not knowing the prospective sales etc., I haven't been looking too hard to short it. I figure it will continue to stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent  The weak guidance put it back on my radar and to look at it closer. But it looks like they pull an AAPL and mislead analysts so they can blow earnings out of the water.I need to search for more examples of stocks rising to astronomical levels based on the "vanities of women". I can't think of any off the top of my head. COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Jun 8, 2012 |
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Jun 8, 2012 17:25
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:I need to search for more examples of stocks rising to astronomical levels based on the "vanities of women". I can't think of any off the top of my head. That's because it's a stupid thing to say. There are companies that have soared because of the vanities of anyone. Do you think men or women buy clothes, or watches, or shoes, or whatever adornments people buy, or fancy/big cars with zero vanity in mind? There are companies that have failed despite trying to play on female vanity. Do you think every single producer/seller of makeup, women's clothing, or women's shoes is still in existence and has made zillions? I don't mean to come down on you in particular, countin billies, I had to say something because several posters have mentioned it now and I hope nobody earnestly thinks this. Also someone on this very thread reminded me that even if a company is really good at something (making clothes that people like), it doesn't necessarily mean they're a good investment.
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Jun 8, 2012 17:49
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There are women who wear LULU to the office where I work. It might be overvalued but vanity is a thing.
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Jun 8, 2012 18:58
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Based on my experiences shorting NFLX, you shouldn't short on valuation alone. The only time it worked for me was when the revenue and subscriber forecasts were clearly unreasonable going into earnings. None of this is gospel of course, but a lot of people on this thread seem to not be doing legwork of this nature
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Jun 8, 2012 19:11
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fougera posted:None of this is gospel of course, but a lot of people on this thread seem to not be doing legwork of this nature Legwork returns are usually about the same as guesswork returns. And guesswork takes a lot less... work.
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Jun 8, 2012 19:32
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idolmind86 posted:Also AT&T has been killing it so you may want to wait for a dip on that one but I'm pretty in love with that stock right now. ATT documentation and customer support appears to be at an all time low these days. I've been dealing with them for a few things lately and its absolutely loving horrible now. I guess cutting the poo poo out of those areas can really help profits in the short term, and their competition isn't all that, but at some point it has to bite them.
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Jun 8, 2012 23:42
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Kind of an odd side question but this was the best thread I could think of. What was trading/researching like before the internet or in the early days of the internet? I know about ticker tapes and daily stock prices in the newspaper and calling your broker, but during the early 90s and BBS days what was it like/what tools were available to individuals or small/medium companies? Anything specific is highly appreciated. I am trying to write a fiction piece that takes place during the 80s and 90s and while stock trading isn't the central theme some of it does happen and I want to make sure I am accurate where I can be. Any specific tools/pages/methods used during the Dot-com boom would be especially appreciated.
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Jun 10, 2012 07:27
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Spaceguns posted:Kind of an odd side question but this was the best thread I could think of. Bloomberg terminals.
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Jun 10, 2012 08:42
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Foma posted:Bloomberg terminals. Thanks. Will dig around for info/screen caps. Any other resources? What would be the feasibility of individual investors or colleges/universities having these systems during the 80s/90s?
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Jun 10, 2012 12:21
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Watch the movie Wall Street, it shows a bunch of scenes with a terminal, as well as a ton of other 80s investment culture.
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Jun 10, 2012 15:03
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Spaceguns posted:Kind of an odd side question but this was the best thread I could think of. Back then their were self contained and manufactured. Getting a terminal on your laptop or desktop was out of the question. Ticker tapes went out when computers came into effect. In the 80's and early 90's you had to do research like Buffet continues to do today, calling the companies and reading the annual reports. Getting the SEC filing were difficult if not impossible. Value Line was HUGE back and in the same format. S&P's research was more highly looked upon. In fact both have not really changed since then.
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Jun 10, 2012 15:12
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Bloomberg terminals are a HUGE waste of money nowadays. The traders I know who have them are forced to have them from the company they work for and they barely use them.
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Jun 10, 2012 16:12
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This might be useful to some of you who are taking a more portfolio approach to trading or want to, but I wrote a basic introduction to mean-variance portfolio optimization using R and quadratic programming on my blog. http://www.wdiam.com/2012/06/10/mean-variance-portfolio-optimization-with-r-and-quadratic-programming/ Presumably a lot of steps would need to be taken before it's production ready (presumably you'd want to create alphas and feed them in), but it's a stepping stone.
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Jun 10, 2012 16:18
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Interesting article about China - http://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-chinese-kleptrocracy-works-2012-6
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Jun 11, 2012 09:20
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I want to do some day trading with some extra cash that I have. I can easily put about $5k into this safely (as in it could become $0 and I'd be okay financially, just upset that I lost $5k). Is this dumb? Do you need to start off with a lot of money in order to get anywhere when it comes to day trading? Would I just be wasting my time reading the literature if I didn't start off with a much larger base? I'm approaching this in the same way as I'd approach gambling; ready to lose whatever I put in and walk away, but also ready to learn the odds before putting down money.
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Jun 13, 2012 08:48
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For those investing in China, I think this is a must read http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2012/06/macroeconomics-of-chinese-kleptocracy.html . Same guy I whose CMDY analysis I posted.
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Jun 13, 2012 09:39
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