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I've been sitting on mostly AAPL and some NLY for a while, but I feel like I've missed out on the Dow's run to 13,000. Should I just guy some SPY and be done with it?
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Aug 1, 2012 22:29
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Josh Lyman posted:I've been sitting on mostly AAPL and some NLY for a while, but I feel like I've missed out on the Dow's run to 13,000. Should I just guy some SPY and be done with it? How long have you been sitting on AAPL? If you got in even not that long ago you should be doing really well with it. I got in at around $380 
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Aug 1, 2012 23:06
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Dolphin posted:If I made a bunch of money off that glitch what's the chance that they modify my trades? The spikes weren't as bad as the flash crash since most traders figured out what was happeneing and were able to take the otherside of the trade. Also, guess who got quoted in WSJ for input on Knights Capital.  (Proof that the financial media knows nothing.)Cheesemaster200 posted:With all the hype over every FOMC announcement, the USDEUR has gotten to the point where it is ridiculously predictable. Buy the Euro a week before the FOMC announcement when everyone has Eurozone angst and sell it right before when everyone expects QE3. Forex is the most efficient market on the planet since currency information is so symmetrical. I have no idea what the ECB could do tomorrow so it could be crazy volatile. COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 00:49 on Aug 2, 2012 |
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Aug 2, 2012 00:30
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Anyone thinking about buying some calls for knight capital?
madkapitolist fucked around with this message at 01:09 on Aug 2, 2012 |
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Aug 2, 2012 01:05
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Turkeybone posted:
Woooo suck it LNKD, ride that poo poo down to the 80s. A lot of REITs are announcing earnings, it's been a mixed bag (IVR and TWO missed, NLY beat). Also, Yelp beat, that was one I thought about shorting, but never did anything about it, whew. Also got some LINE to go into the dividend whatever pile. Also, I was loving hovering over buying 1000 shares of FTR two days ago for similar dividend stuff... welp.
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Aug 2, 2012 01:12
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Hummer Driving human being posted:How long have you been sitting on AAPL? If you got in even not that long ago you should be doing really well with it. I got in at around $380
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Aug 2, 2012 02:31
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Turkeybone posted:Woooo suck it LNKD, ride that poo poo down to the 80s. A lot of REITs are announcing earnings, it's been a mixed bag (IVR and TWO missed, NLY beat). Man, I've been waiting for LNKD to fall for forever. Most obvious short in the market IMO. I would keep the pedal down on that one. Josh Lyman posted:AAPL is my buy and ignore, so quite a while. Yup I'd hold onto that for awhile. Maybe get into SPY on Monday until September depending on what happens with the ECB and Nonfarm Payrolls. JBLU down 8% day after I got in. Awesome. I'll probably buy more if it hits $4.
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Aug 2, 2012 02:45
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Dumb question but when is the actual ECB announcement going down? I assume overnight since, you know, time zones.
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Aug 2, 2012 07:57
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Turkeybone posted:Dumb question but when is the actual ECB announcement going down? I assume overnight since, you know, time zones. It's going down in like an hour--market reaction has been muted, Gold sank a lot the last few days, transports in the US are a down a lot, european currencies spiked up but then dropped down some. If he comes up with something definite the market will go bananas for a few days, but if all they do is restart the bond buying program or even less than that, markets are gonna be a bit red, to say the least. I don't think any compromise is really gonna be adequate, somebody is gonna get slapped down. It really depends on if the Germans can be bullied by the Italians and French into hurting the long term health of their banking sector in order to keep the stock market at artificially inflated levels. I just don't see the Germans getting strong-armed here. From 2008 Merkel and the CDU are the only party of a major european country that have stayed in power and actually seen their approval rating go up during most of the Euro crisis, I don't see them throwing that away when they're on the verge of having a nearly permanent majority where even the SDP and the Greens will have to follow their lead for economic guidance. Of course, I could be totally off and Draghi is going to helicopter drop a trillion euros in which case I'm going to get my head kicked in, but I'll leave this here for posterity. I'm holding puts in PCLN, TNA, SPY, EWP, and GLD, calls in VXX and TLT, 15/25 strangle on Yelp that should make me some ok coin today and bearish bias strangle on LNKD that's already paid for itself in closed out cash money of a few of my puts so my downside risk is zero. Actually, you can make far more not trying to play the biggest indices and call the crash--after this I'm never buying SPY puts for more than a small hedge when IWM, XLI, TRAN, and FAZ are so much more responsive to poor fundamentals. Smerdyakov fucked around with this message at 12:37 on Aug 2, 2012 |
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Aug 2, 2012 12:31
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Turkeybone posted:Dumb question but when is the actual ECB announcement going down? I assume overnight since, you know, time zones. 830 EST or right now. I said I was going to stay out of the market but I'm shorting now for the rest of the day. Safe as houses 
COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 13:57 on Aug 2, 2012 |
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Aug 2, 2012 13:37
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Knight's Capital is down 53% extra this morning. Market capitalization: 311 Million. Cash and equivalents: 555 million. Total equity: 1.5 billion.
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Aug 2, 2012 14:25
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Dolphin posted:Knight's Capital is down 53% extra this morning. Market capitalization: 311 Million. Cash and equivalents: 555 million. Total equity: 1.5 billion. wonder if they'll get a margin call today
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Aug 2, 2012 15:21
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:830 EST or right now. Welp.
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Aug 2, 2012 15:40
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I am a golden god. Everything except for the drat yelp strangle (which I let sit for reasons unknown even to myself) is showing 50-300% ROI, with VXX being the laggard here. Sold my gold puts at the open, used the proceeds to buy SPY 137 august puts and GME october 15 puts on the way up, and it all died on the way down. I can't believe that today was a good day.
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Aug 2, 2012 17:12
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Yeah, I sold my LNKD puts, bought a couple SPY puts and am just trying to dig out of the FB that I was forced to put on. Also the VIX is down today despite the action. Interesting.. Turkeybone fucked around with this message at 18:29 on Aug 2, 2012 |
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Aug 2, 2012 18:01
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Aaaaand FB is less than 20 bucks. Ouch.
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Aug 2, 2012 18:14
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:
How do you measure efficiency?
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Aug 2, 2012 19:19
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nebby posted:Aaaaand FB is less than 20 bucks. Ouch. sink the biz posted:wonder if they'll get a margin call today
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Aug 2, 2012 19:44
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Dolphin posted:
Chase passed on extending them credit supposedly.
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Aug 2, 2012 19:55
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Playing with fake money I got into SVU at 1.99, out at 2.40. It looks like everyone and his dog is buying into their new CEO, but the trading momentum looks like the people who bought on Goldman Sachs' valuation got out in the high 2.40s. They're in a precarious market position, their fundamentals haven't budged and they're up 20% on a single executive hire. They've got a low price and a tiny market cap - could we be watching price manipulation in action?
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Aug 2, 2012 20:38
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nebby posted:Aaaaand FB is less than 20 bucks. Ouch. This is better than Dane Cook.
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Aug 2, 2012 20:55
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Turkeybone posted:Welp. Down .75%, I'll take it. Dolphin posted:If I had the spare capital I'd short it into the ground. You really think FB is worth nothing? This is a pretty good price for FB but you'll be longing the idea that they can monetize. And yeah the $440 million loss from yesterday is greater than the revenue for the second quarter for Knight. I think a firm like Citadel will gobble them up for real value with some of the talent that is with that firm. COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Aug 2, 2012 |
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Aug 2, 2012 21:15
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:You really think FB is worth nothing? This is a pretty good price for FB but you'll be longing the idea that they can monetize.
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Aug 2, 2012 22:16
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Dolphin posted:I was exaggerating, but only a little. They've already started bleeding money, their market cap is still ludicrous, and the management is bonkers (and jumping ship). How exactly are they going to monetize? Short term I see more dips coming when the lock up period ends.
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Aug 2, 2012 23:36
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f2a posted:How do you measure efficiency? You don't really, it's more of an ideal or concept. This is about how the Efficient Market Hypothesis relates to stock but most of the concepts are similar: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/02/101502.asp#axzz22Qp2rmLQ
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Aug 2, 2012 23:49
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Some perspective on Knight Capital, 40% of tangible book value, 4 times its annual profits. http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/08/02/counterparties-a-high-frequency-knightmare/ There's either going to be some software job openings there, or the unemployment number will spike with 1400-ish. As for Facebook, it's coming up to its first lock-up expiry. Not sure if it's on Fri August 17 or Mon 20, but I'm sure you'll be able to tell somehow. Current P/E is 111, so around $5 would be a good long.
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Aug 3, 2012 00:01
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Ola posted:Some perspective on Knight Capital, 40% of tangible book value, 4 times its annual profits.
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Aug 3, 2012 01:56
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Turkeybone posted:Woooo suck it LNKD, ride that poo poo down to the 80s. A lot of REITs are announcing earnings, it's been a mixed bag (IVR and TWO missed, NLY beat). Whoopsies
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Aug 3, 2012 03:24
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FlashBangBob posted:Whoopsies  Come on now, I said I was going to cover before earnings. 
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Aug 3, 2012 03:37
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No point censoring the amounts when you've left in the number of contracts. 
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Aug 3, 2012 08:05
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Ola posted:No point censoring the amounts when you've left in the number of contracts. oh, nice. Well the point is I'm not trying to wave the money dick around, big or small.
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Aug 3, 2012 08:31
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:Yup I'd hold onto that for awhile. Maybe get into SPY on Monday until September depending on what happens with the ECB and Nonfarm Payrolls. 
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Aug 3, 2012 14:12
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Turkeybone posted:oh, nice. Well the point is I'm not trying to wave the money dick around, big or small. Is that one contract for a profit of $1.10? Looks more like a beat than a brag, then again I could be reading that image incorrectly.
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Aug 3, 2012 14:26
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a lovely poster posted:Is that one contract for a profit of $1.10? Looks more like a beat than a brag, then again I could be reading that image incorrectly. One contract is for 100 shares (or is it 1 option = 100 contracts?). I'm guessing $1.10 is today's change, with total change blacked out, but since it's one contract it's purchased at $346 and at the time of the screenshot worth $860. Which is real nice, particularly if he got out before LNKD popped. Speaking of pops, KCG saw $3.43 shortly after open, which is up over 30%. Down to 20-ish % before I could finish the post. Goes to show that buying a crash will sometimes work - if you get out when the cat bounce apexes.
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Aug 3, 2012 14:45
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Something just went up FBs rear end, interesting to see the little battles going down at each dollar amount. I sold my long puts to try and recoup some of the hurt from the short puts.. FB in general gets filed under "poo poo (stocks) my dad says (to buy)". KCG being another one of those  . Yeah LNKD I had no intention of holding over earnings, that and MNST I just got incredibly lucky on. I've been watching other oil stocks lately -- RIG is in a really nice uptrend; I took some action on PBR as it's been building a good base and (hopefully) will break out in the near future. Other than that I'm just trying to do some boring stuff, selling puts on poo poo like V and GS for small but pretty assured dollar amounts.
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Aug 3, 2012 17:45
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Some specific details on what the Knight software was doing wrong: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/08/03/bad_algorithm_lost_440_million_dollars/
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Aug 3, 2012 19:20
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Turkeybone posted:"poo poo (stocks) my dad says (to buy)". KCG being another one of those Well, if anything I guess he has his finger on the pulse of the common man.. that was a quick 15% flip. And I guarantee when I say "hey we made 15% for doing nothing" he'll be all "ohhhh why did you sell, nooooo". [/en].
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Aug 3, 2012 19:49
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Dolphin posted:I was exaggerating, but only a little. They've already started bleeding money, their market cap is still ludicrous, and the management is bonkers (and jumping ship). How exactly are they going to monetize? Through sponsored stories. People still spend the majority of their internet time on Facebook and it is still the most visited social media site.
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Aug 3, 2012 20:19
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It's not a question of making money, it's a question of growing x% year over year, where x is enough to justify the P/E. So far, people don't seem to be into it. If you look at today's action on FB, you could see that someone pulled the rug out at 22. Even if the stock recovers to say, 25, there's still so many shares out there that are hurting, it's gonna take awhile to eat through all of those people who just want to break even, and that's if FB was performing well.
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Aug 3, 2012 21:05
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Scaramouche posted:Some specific details on what the Knight software was doing wrong: I don't understand why NYSE is reversing a bunch of the trades. I don't see why algo folks should have this special safety net. If I fat-finger a trade on my online brokerage and blow 40% of my portfolio, I don't get that trade reversed (as far as I know).
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Aug 4, 2012 05:07
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