Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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COUNTIN THE BILLIES: Jan 8, 2006; by Ion Helmet

Cheesemaster200 posted:

I honestly think the Wall Street journal is conspiring with some hedge fund over this QE poo poo.

Here is their headline:

Bernanke Signals Readiness to Do More
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered up a robust defense of the effectiveness of the central bank's easy money policies and left little room for doubt that he is looking toward doing more as the Fed prepares for a September policy meeting

Bernanke said exactly what everyone thought he would say; the same "we're ready to act if conditions warrant" statement which he has regularly held for the last 6 months.

How they can imply "IMMINENT QE" from this is beyond me. Its like they are saying that because he is not ruling it out, that he must be ruling it in or something.

His point was that the stagnant growth in labor will drive the decision as to whether there will be QE3 or not.

The Bernanke posted:

Over the past five years, the Federal Reserve has acted to support economic growth and foster job creation, and it is important to achieve further progress, particularly in the labor market. Taking due account of the uncertainties and limits of its policy tools, the Federal Reserve will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.

So unless the August Non-Farms are great, I expect QE3. Definitely not imminent though. Anything could happen...

COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 17:35 on Aug 31, 2012

# ? Aug 31, 2012 17:26

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# ? Jun 8, 2024 08:33

Cheesemaster200: Feb 11, 2004; Guard of the Citadel

COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:

His point was that the stagnant growth in labor will drive the decision as to whether there will be QE3 or not.

So unless the August Non-Farms are great, I expect QE3. Definitely not imminent though. Anything could happen...

"Additional policy accommodation" could easily just mean keeping rates low (again).

Now the WSJ is saying the "dollar is weak after Bernanke's comments." However, if you have been watching the USD today, it is now actually up almost a cent versus the Euro compared to this morning before the press conference. Sometimes I just want to hit these financial reporters repetitively. Again, it is almost like they are trying to pressure the market or something...

# ? Aug 31, 2012 18:39

pr0k: Jan 16, 2001; "Well if it's gonna be
that kind of party..."

Well it's not like the WSJ is owned by a billionaire with skin in the game.

# ? Aug 31, 2012 18:54

Turkeybone: Dec 9, 2006

All sorts of naked puts on GLD :woop:

# ? Aug 31, 2012 18:56

Josh Lyman: May 24, 2009

Turkeybone posted:

All sorts of naked puts on GLD

Why write puts instead of buying calls?

# ? Aug 31, 2012 19:05

Inverse Icarus: Dec 4, 2003; I run SyncRPG, and produce original, digital content for the Pathfinder RPG, designed from the ground up to be played online.

God bless you, Splunk.

I jumped in during mid-July after rumors of acquisition were building up, at around $28.

Taking the money and running today. I needed a little more cash to renovate a bathroom in my house.

# ? Aug 31, 2012 19:29

pr0k: Jan 16, 2001; "Well if it's gonna be
that kind of party..."

Why own pretend money when you could have bullion? :clint:

# ? Aug 31, 2012 19:30

Turkeybone: Dec 9, 2006

Josh Lyman posted:

Why write puts instead of buying calls?

Well with GLD I suppose I could've bought calls and it would've worked fine, today's jump was a little unexpected. I sold these puts on Monday or perhaps last Friday, several OCT 155s and a few DEC 155s. My premise was that the markets would continue to mark time until the real Fed meeting.

I felt more comfortable saying that gold would stay the same or not go down, as opposed to saying it would go up, so I sold puts instead of buying calls (for those unfamiliar with the nuances). My max profit for these puts altogether is about $1700, now today I've realized about $650, so I am way ahead of schedule.

e: For similar reasons last week I got rid of my FB puts that I bought and just shorted 500 shares of stock.. I still think it's going down but wasn't so sure about the time frame -- by shorting stock instead of buying puts, time isn't a factor.

I'm becoming more conservative about profits lately.. I'm up about 18% this year so I'm more comfortable with selling puts each month and collecting "sure things" (PCLN 540, AAPL 550, AMZN 225, GOOG 640, DDD 35, etc). Not all sure things are sure things though -- look at like BIDU, I'm still sweating my SEPT 100s.

It's not all roses -- I went against my gut and didn't sell AAPL calls after the pop. Again I feel good about them but time is working against me there.

Turkeybone fucked around with this message at 20:24 on Aug 31, 2012

# ? Aug 31, 2012 20:14

DancingMachine: Aug 12, 2004; He's a dancing machine!

How is time not a factor when you short the stock? Aren't you getting charged some kind of ongoing interest for borrowing the shares?

# ? Aug 31, 2012 22:11

COUNTIN THE BILLIES: Jan 8, 2006; by Ion Helmet

FB down over 5% today... Might make a play on it next week...

# ? Aug 31, 2012 22:32

Turkeybone: Dec 9, 2006

DancingMachine posted:

How is time not a factor when you short the stock? Aren't you getting charged some kind of ongoing interest for borrowing the shares?

Well with buying calls and puts the value decreases as you approach the strike price, much moreso than the borrowing fee.

# ? Aug 31, 2012 22:51

Josh Lyman: May 24, 2009

Turkeybone posted:

Well with buying calls and puts the value decreases as you approach the strike price, much moreso than the borrowing fee.

Theta gonna choke a bitch.

# ? Aug 31, 2012 23:05

lightpole: Jun 4, 2004; I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

pr0k posted:

Well it's not like the WSJ is owned by a billionaire with skin in the game.

I dropped it after he picked it up. I started to pick up much more of a biased slant I was extremely uncomfortable with.

# ? Aug 31, 2012 23:29

Rocko Bonaparte: Mar 12, 2002; Every day is Friday!

Is there a good forum to hang out on for automated trading stuff? I had been trying Elite Trader, but half the posts are "hurr indicators blah PRICE ACTION ALL THE WAY." The way "price action" gets thrown around makes me think the term has no meaning anymore. I'm trying to find a crew of programmer people messing around with trading.

# ? Sep 1, 2012 00:16

Ravarek: Apr 25, 2004; Solid gold dipes:
E'ry day I'm hustlin'.

greasyhands posted:

STX and WDC have a ton of headwinds in my opinion, and everyone is just celebrating the cashflow of the last year or two when they had a lot of things working in their favor.

What other headwinds are you referring to? I ask this because still STX looks drastically undervalued to me -- even if free cash flow falls significantly from 2011-2012 levels. I certainly expect some margin compression to happen (obviously hard drive supply is greater now) but STX still looks incredibly sexy.

# ? Sep 1, 2012 00:55

Ravarek: Apr 25, 2004; Solid gold dipes:
E'ry day I'm hustlin'.

Cheesemaster200 posted:

I honestly think the Wall Street journal is conspiring with some hedge fund over this QE poo poo.

Ah yes, I see you have become quite acquainted with everyone's favorite Fed propaganda-spewing dipshit Jon Hilsenrath. I wouldn't really put any faith in mainstream financial news sources hyping the prospect of QE3. Bernanke already shot his load and at this point another round of easing would do more harm than good and he freely admits that. I think everyone wants to believe QE3 is just around the corner (and the Fed wants you to believe that too) because that belief is keeping the market from making GBS threads the bed.

Bernanke has fired every bullet he has got, now he's in a stand off hiding behind a bullet riddled door shouting "I HAVE MORE BULLETS! DON'T COME IN!"

# ? Sep 1, 2012 01:13

abagofcheetos: Oct 29, 2003; by FactsAreUseless

Ravarek posted:

What other headwinds are you referring to? I ask this because still STX looks drastically undervalued to me -- even if free cash flow falls significantly from 2011-2012 levels. I certainly expect some margin compression to happen (obviously hard drive supply is greater now) but STX still looks incredibly sexy.

Wdc and Stx are so weird... I don't know how many killer quarters they need to have before the stock stops drastically dropping for no apparent reason. They are such killer fundamental value stocks it is absurd. A third of wdc's market cap is cash and the PE is STILL under 7.

# ? Sep 1, 2012 04:15

Inverse Icarus: Dec 4, 2003; I run SyncRPG, and produce original, digital content for the Pathfinder RPG, designed from the ground up to be played online.

COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:

FB down over 5% today... Might make a play on it next week...

Any reason why?

Do you think it's undervalued, or that they're going to do something to start making real money, or what?

# ? Sep 1, 2012 04:45

PRADA SLUT: Mar 14, 2006; Inexperienced,
heartless,
but even so

COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:

FB down over 5% today... Might make a play on it next week...

FB has gone down 5% at least a dozen times since the IPO.

# ? Sep 1, 2012 04:52

COUNTIN THE BILLIES: Jan 8, 2006; by Ion Helmet

PRADA SLUT posted:

FB has gone down 5% at least a dozen times since the IPO.

You're right; thought I put 'again' in my post. Regardless, it's a smidgen above $18.

Inverse Icarus posted:

Any reason why?

Do you think it's undervalued, or that they're going to do something to start making real money, or what?

I think it is currently undervalued. But I also don't think the price is gonna turn around quickly. The bearishness has really been drummed into investors. Anyway, it's at a level where I would take the chance with it.

# ? Sep 1, 2012 05:39

abagofcheetos: Oct 29, 2003; by FactsAreUseless

May I borrow every single share you purchase?

# ? Sep 1, 2012 06:02

COUNTIN THE BILLIES: Jan 8, 2006; by Ion Helmet

abagofcheetos posted:

May I borrow every single share you purchase?

I guess. You really think it's worth zero with that huge user base? Obviously I don't think it's hugely undervalued, it's not worth $42 at this point nor was it ever. But I can really only see it going down marginally, not really worth the extra cost to short it at this point plus eveyone is so bearish on it that any good news could send a spike and squeeze the short sellers like we saw with YELP the other day.

Anyway, just my thoughts. P/E is still crazy on the stock and the corporate governance is also a pain. But then again LNKD has an even more crazy P/E ratio and it's been on a tear (and yeah I've been saying short that fucker for a while). But I'll let you know when I initiate my position.

Ravarek posted:

Bernanke has fired every bullet he has got, now he's in a stand off hiding behind a bullet riddled door shouting "I HAVE MORE BULLETS! DON'T COME IN!"

I wish it would be NGDP targeting.

This is interesting:

From Sober Look http://soberlook.com/2012/08/consumer-leverage-growth-is-not-going.html

COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 06:59 on Sep 1, 2012

# ? Sep 1, 2012 06:20

Turkeybone: Dec 9, 2006

Well I don't think it's worth zero, but I also don't think that going long on the hope of a major short squeeze is a winning strategy, either. I mean, you may get lucky and lock in some gains, but it's definitely like the dude holding 7-2 in Texas Hold 'Em waiting for that 777 to come out: just not good strategy.

Especially with FB there is a major event coming -- the next lockup expiration in November. As "they" say, this one in November is full of all the hype-buyers who bought from like SecondMarket and other proxies.

That might end up being a non-event, "a sell the rumor, buy the news": I'm sure people think they want to get out before that lockup expiry. If there's a big whoosh between then and now it might be interesting.

# ? Sep 1, 2012 16:16

Turkeybone: Dec 9, 2006

Hey how's our safe-as-houses stalwarts ZNGA and HPQ doing? I sold my HPQ and DELL puts right after the earnings reports, but I guess I should've held them because the stocks just continue to bleed. NOK actually is at a not-so-bad buy point now; if I were into it I would put a stop right under 2.75ish.

# ? Sep 1, 2012 16:19

PRADA SLUT: Mar 14, 2006; Inexperienced,
heartless,
but even so

NOK is a Vegas money play right now.

QR of 1.18 and a .93 to book, but no goddamn product on the market or in the pipeline, and negative everywhere.

But heeeeeeeey, 9% dividend yield, #1 in the sector :ducksiren:

# ? Sep 1, 2012 18:58

Amun: Oct 16, 2002

Rocko Bonaparte posted:

Is there a good forum to hang out on for automated trading stuff? I had been trying Elite Trader, but half the posts are "hurr indicators blah PRICE ACTION ALL THE WAY." The way "price action" gets thrown around makes me think the term has no meaning anymore. I'm trying to find a crew of programmer people messing around with trading.

Not that I've seen. I'm an algo trader/developer for a prop trading firm but also fiddle around with some of my own personal projects. I'd love a place like that, but this industry is so secretive that I can't imagine more than a couple people would be willing to share/help out for fear of competition or legal action.

# ? Sep 1, 2012 19:20

scavok: Feb 22, 2005

PRADA SLUT posted:

NOK is a Vegas money play right now.

QR of 1.18 and a .93 to book, but no goddamn product on the market or in the pipeline, and negative everywhere.

But heeeeeeeey, 9% dividend yield, #1 in the sector

They have the Lumia phones that are currently out, and 2 windows phone 8 Lumia's they're announcing on the 5th. They're supposed to be coming out with a windows 8 tablet as well, and verizon will start selling their WP products. With Samsung getting smoked right as these products are coming out, there's a good chance they'll be pretty successful.

scavok fucked around with this message at 19:32 on Sep 1, 2012

# ? Sep 1, 2012 19:29

COUNTIN THE BILLIES: Jan 8, 2006; by Ion Helmet

When valuating companies, how do you decide when to use an equity multiple or an enterprise value multiple?

# ? Sep 1, 2012 20:56

COUNTIN THE BILLIES: Jan 8, 2006; by Ion Helmet

Amun posted:

Not that I've seen. I'm an algo trader/developer for a prop trading firm but also fiddle around with some of my own personal projects. I'd love a place like that, but this industry is so secretive that I can't imagine more than a couple people would be willing to share/help out for fear of competition or legal action.

Yeah there aren't any good forums for that since if a successful strategy gets, it's effectiveness greatly deminishes. So really there is no reason for people to share there ideas since they would just be hurting their business and helping their competitiors.

For value investing, this forum is amazing from what I hear. That is, if you can get in. https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com

# ? Sep 1, 2012 21:08

Vile: Aug 28, 2005; by Nyc_Tattoo

COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:

FB down over 5% today... Might make a play on it next week...

FB at $10 is a buy imo

# ? Sep 1, 2012 21:14

PRADA SLUT: Mar 14, 2006; Inexperienced,
heartless,
but even so

I think FB is a buy at 7-8, using the "pulling market cap out of my rear end" valuation.

scavok posted:

They have the Lumia phones that are currently out, and 2 windows phone 8 Lumia's they're announcing on the 5th. They're supposed to be coming out with a windows 8 tablet as well, and verizon will start selling their WP products. With Samsung getting smoked right as these products are coming out, there's a good chance they'll be pretty successful.

I should have said, not literally nothing on the market, but I haven't seen Nokia making any sort of dent in anything lately. I know they have WP8 support, but the phones they've been releasing haven't been doing very well, unless I just haven't heard of it.

# ? Sep 1, 2012 22:56

mik: Oct 16, 2003; oh

Amun posted:

Not that I've seen. I'm an algo trader/developer for a prop trading firm but also fiddle around with some of my own personal projects. I'd love a place like that, but this industry is so secretive that I can't imagine more than a couple people would be willing to share/help out for fear of competition or legal action.

There's nothing really between "I can script in eSignal EFS!" (i.e. the Elite Trader forums) and the regular proprietary software that higher end prop firms and such develop. At that level there's going to be very very little knowledge sharing for the aforementioned reasons. The FIX protocol has a reasonable support 'community' because it's open source, but if you're implementing FIX then you're not going to be hanging out on forums to chat with other developers really.

# ? Sep 2, 2012 00:54

Inverse Icarus: Dec 4, 2003; I run SyncRPG, and produce original, digital content for the Pathfinder RPG, designed from the ground up to be played online.

Vile posted:

FB at $10 is a buy imo

Why?

I still haven't really seen any justification for thinking the stock is going anywhere but the toilet.

# ? Sep 2, 2012 02:49

Vile: Aug 28, 2005; by Nyc_Tattoo

Inverse Icarus posted:

Why?

I still haven't really seen any justification for thinking the stock is going anywhere but the toilet.

Long term (years) I don't see myself facebooking. I get that. But after nov lockup and a bottom anywhere 7-10 bucks I could see some good news spun up, some new ad thing or whatever.... Maybe bounce to 15, 20. There's some nice gains there you could lock in... All based on fees etc as we all know. Again, all just a feeling i get...

# ? Sep 2, 2012 03:51

Vile: Aug 28, 2005; by Nyc_Tattoo

I favor blue chips paying fat dividends. I want markets to tank so I can buy because I'm young. But if you like short gambles FB and the rest of the social stocks are all rolls of the dice. I live in Vegas so I have outlets for those temptations

# ? Sep 2, 2012 03:55

Amun: Oct 16, 2002

mik posted:

There's nothing really between "I can script in eSignal EFS!" (i.e. the Elite Trader forums) and the regular proprietary software that higher end prop firms and such develop.

With a lot of no/low-risk strategies becoming saturated and volumes down, a lot of heavy quant prop firms are getting crushed right now. I think we'll start to see some of this in-between stuff as former prop traders continue to lose their jobs but want to trade their own money. In fact, it feels like the whole industry is starting to move towards more (that is, greater than zero) risky strategies.

Either way, though, such an online community would be a total poo poo-show. As soon as somebody stumbled on to something that halfway works everyone on the forum would sue the pants off each other.

# ? Sep 2, 2012 04:19

COUNTIN THE BILLIES: Jan 8, 2006; by Ion Helmet

Inverse Icarus posted:

Why?

I still haven't really seen any justification for thinking the stock is going anywhere but the toilet.

Why do you think it's worth so little? Tbqh, people who are saying it's worth zero are just as crazy as people saying it's worth $42 or more at this point.

I think part of the problem with FB is that nobody knows how to value it. It's either worth a ton or nothing but probably somewhere in between and the market is trying to figure out where.

COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 05:02 on Sep 2, 2012

# ? Sep 2, 2012 04:56

Vile: Aug 28, 2005; by Nyc_Tattoo

Is FB working with apple to be in ios6? 5-8% jump on that announcement if it's true. Does that mean the company is on solid footing for a bright future? No. FB is a day traders dream but personally I'm staying away unless it gets really temptingly low (sub $10)

# ? Sep 2, 2012 06:18

Jack Daniels: Nov 14, 2002

http://www.stockfetcher.com/ should be in the OP, tbh, as a resource.
Custom code to screen for any type of stock you are looking for.

I come up with my list of 100+ stocks for my Big Watch List weekly via

code:

set{ADR, Average Day Range(50)}
ADR above 4.8
and ma(10) is above 3
and close is above 3
and average volume(10) is above 500000
and average volume(50) is above 400000

and add column ADR
and sort by column 5 descending

Obviously looking for high ADR tickers to day/swing trade. Have had to recently lower the volume requirements to achieve a full list since the volume has been garbage lately.

# ? Sep 2, 2012 07:41

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# ? Jun 8, 2024 08:33

Jack Daniels: Nov 14, 2002

Also FB is a buy anytime it establishes some type of near-term support for a scalp/trade/quick-swing. Haved traded it off of 26, 20, and 19, all wins. But again it has broken support and who knows how low its going. People talking sub-10 or w/e, but there will be plenty of long opportunities prior to those levels (if it ever gets there). 15 comes to mind, for sure. And 10 will obviously establish strong support I would assume. But yes, wait until its "sub-10" to even attempt to profit from it lol...

Related note, I just heard from my dad taht my uncle bought some FB on Friday and recommended it to the family to also buy. Meaning, its going lower lmao. Will definitely be a big buyer at 15 if support is established, for a bounce to 16+, and will be out quickly, as usual.

There's way better ADRs out there to trade...but FB stock is the In Thing to talk about :haw:

# ? Sep 2, 2012 07:46

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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