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PRADA SLUT posted:Any reason not to go long on INTC right now? They're trading way below average. I've looked into this also, Only thing holding me back is the thought intc misses estimates in mid oct and takes a drop to 22 / 21
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Sep 15, 2012 02:46
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We've talked about this a bunch of times but thinking the iPhone is a killer and immortal product is not a reason to long the stock. The current valuation indicates continued blockbuster success of the iPhone, iPad, and a whole new product category that doesn't exist yet.
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Sep 15, 2012 05:16
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Vile posted:I've looked into this also, Only thing holding me back is the thought intc misses estimates in mid oct and takes a drop to 22 / 21 Buy more if that happens.
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Sep 15, 2012 17:09
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Good point
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Sep 15, 2012 23:13
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DancingMachine posted:We've talked about this a bunch of times but thinking the iPhone is a killer and immortal product is not a reason to long the stock. The current valuation indicates continued blockbuster success of the iPhone, iPad, and a whole new product category that doesn't exist yet. I've thought about this; what is the maximum number of smart phone penetration total? At some point Apple is going to run out of market.
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Sep 17, 2012 05:39
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Scaramouche posted:I've thought about this; what is the maximum number of smart phone penetration total? At some point Apple is going to run out of market. You are not counting replacements.
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Sep 17, 2012 05:51
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People literally sell their iPhone 4s so that can buy the 5, and lots of people upgrade phones when they renew contracts or switch providers. I really wouldn't worry about running out of market.
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Sep 17, 2012 05:54
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At some point, people will stop paying a premium for diminishing returns. Although knowing Apple-fanboys, that point might not exist...
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Sep 17, 2012 06:48
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2 big risks, One is that smart phones hit the wall that PCs have, where one from 4 years ago is good enough to keep. The other and I think the larger is the margin made on phones falls off a cliff as they become commodities. I think the later risk is pretty large
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Sep 17, 2012 07:27
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Following Nokia, I've read a lot about how Verizon and ATT want to promote WP8 in order to provide an additional alternative to the iPhone, with expectations that they wouldn't lose customers if they reduced their subsidy. Who knows if it'll be WP8 that makes that possible, but it'll happen eventually, and Apple will have to eat that reduction because people will only pay so much for a phone. Then again, from what I understand, big providers in other countries don't subsidize nearly as much as in the US and the iPhone still sells incredibly well, so who knows.
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Sep 17, 2012 10:43
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Foma posted:2 big risks, There has to be a perceived/realized indifference to the end user when it comes to upgrading their PC/smartphone. For me and my PC, it was the realization that I wasn't going to need a gaming rig anymore, all I wanted to do was pay bills, and the speed of the PC was not going to help me pay bills faster. If the wireless industry hits similar stagnation points (no further progression needed beyond 5G, for example, because apps on smartphones simply don't require all that bandwidth) then yes, I agree. But when that time comes, all Apple needs to do is license out to the bottom-dwelling manufacturers and move on to the Next Big Thing.
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Sep 17, 2012 12:51
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scavok posted:Following Nokia, I've read a lot about how Verizon and ATT want to promote WP8 in order to provide an additional alternative to the iPhone, with expectations that they wouldn't lose customers if they reduced their subsidy. Who knows if it'll be WP8 that makes that possible, but it'll happen eventually, and Apple will have to eat that reduction because people will only pay so much for a phone.
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Sep 17, 2012 13:40
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:At some point, people will stop paying a premium for diminishing returns. Although knowing Apple-fanboys, that point might not exist... I don't know about diminishing returns. They are still the company pushing the bounds technology wise with Google and Microsoft playing catchup. Google has a lot of work to do with fragmentation which frustrates developers. Apple has a far smaller fragmentation problem which works in their favor in terms of app development. I find it ironic that all the Google fanboys are crawling out of the woodwork when Android finally puts out a decent OS. Either that or they are mad because Google Maps got pulled from iOS6. evilwaldo fucked around with this message at 15:19 on Sep 17, 2012 |
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Sep 17, 2012 15:13
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quote:I don't know about diminishing returns. They are still the company pushing the bounds technology wise with Google and Microsoft playing catchup. They do? Give me an example how the iPhone 5 is any more advanced than top of the line androids and WP8 phones. Apple is definitely one playing catch up now since they issue a new phone every year or so. Obviously with the consumer Apple still has huge brand value, and many people will buy iPhone 5 because it's the new shiny thing. (there's a video where they literally adore the "new" iPhone even though they're actually given a 4S) I don't think Apple will lose it's primacy quickly, but to say that they're the one pushing the technology bounds is simply not true. Another question is will all the emerging markets be ready to pay the premium for the Apple phones since they're not as nearly subsidised. If not, where will the expected growth come from? Gmaz fucked around with this message at 17:34 on Sep 17, 2012 |
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Sep 17, 2012 17:27
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TUBALLINATOR posted:They do? Give me an example how the iPhone 5 is any more advanced than top of the line androids and WP8 phones. Apple is definitely one playing catch up now since they issue a new phone every year or so. Obviously with the consumer Apple still has huge brand value, and many people will buy iPhone 5 because it's the new shiny thing. (there's a video where they literally adore the "new" iPhone even though they're actually given a 4S) Who doesn't issue a new phone every year?
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Sep 17, 2012 17:36
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TUBALLINATOR posted:They do? Give me an example how the iPhone 5 is any more advanced than top of the line androids and WP8 phones. Most technology companies compete on getting the most number of features in to a product at the cheapest price. Apple refuses to play this game. They are all about marketing and user interface innovation. Apple also doesn't care about maximizing the number of devices sold - they are a premium brand; their primary objective is to deliver the best user experience and solidify their brand as a premium device while maintaining high profit margins. Go back and watch youtube videos of Steve Ballmer making GBS threads on the iPhone when it first came out. He parrots your exact argument and it's just as ill-informed as it was a decade ago. cowofwar fucked around with this message at 17:44 on Sep 17, 2012 |
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Sep 17, 2012 17:41
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Samsung, Nokia etc. They issue a new phone every few months or less.quote:Apple also doesn't care about maximizing the number of devices sold - they are a premium brand; their primary objective is to deliver the best user experience and solidify their brand as a premium device which maintaining high profit margins. The question is will the consumer still be willing to pay the price premium once they realise they can get exactly the same stuff on android/wp8, and where will the expected crazy growth come from, and at what margins? quote:Go back and watch youtube videos of Steve Ballmer making GBS threads on the iPhone when it first came out. He parrots your exact argument and it's just as ill-informed as it was a decade ago. Gmaz fucked around with this message at 17:48 on Sep 17, 2012 |
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Sep 17, 2012 17:42
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TUBALLINATOR posted:They do? Give me an example how the iPhone 5 is any more advanced than top of the line androids and WP8 phones. Apple is definitely one playing catch up now since they issue a new phone every year or so. Apple has created a custom core for this phone (the A6)-- it appears based on the benchmark that Apple has not exaggerated their claims of speed, at all:  http://www.anandtech.com/show/6292/iphone-5-a6-not-a15-custom-core quote:I don't think Apple will lose it's primacy quickly, but to say that they're the one pushing the technology bounds is simply not true. I disagree-- the processor that they needed to achieve the performance/battery life did not exist, and apple engineers have proven that they can still create very strong technology which pushes the bounds of power/power consumption.
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Sep 17, 2012 17:47
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TUBALLINATOR posted:Samsung, Nokia etc. They issue a new phone every few months or less. And the initial figures seem to suggest that most users actually don't care about the slightly larger screen, or the quad core vs dual core specs because the pre-orders are moving lightning fast. This is really not unexpected because the last decade is littered with "feature-rich iPhone/iPad killers" with specs that looked better on paper but failed to capture the consumer's attention. TUBALLINATOR posted:I believe you completely misunderstood the point of my post. cowofwar fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Sep 17, 2012 |
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Sep 17, 2012 17:48
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I'm saying that consumers in places where most growth is expected to come from e.g. China, India etc. are less likely to pay the price premium than western and especially US carrier subsidized markets. I doubt that large growth can be extracted from just replacement buys. I am sceptical that the expected growth can come at expected margins, unless Apple creates a new magical product that will be able to drive even higher margins. I think that a lot of very high expectations are taken for granted when it comes to Apple.
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Sep 17, 2012 17:58
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TUBALLINATOR posted:I'm saying that consumers in places where most growth is expected to come from e.g. China, India etc. are less likely to pay the price premium than western and especially US carrier subsidized markets. I doubt that large growth can be extracted from just replacement buys. You are wrong about that. Premium items sell very well overseas, especially in Asia where having an iPhone is a status symbol. It really goes to the culture and in those cultures to have something from a premium brand is looked upon very well.
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Sep 17, 2012 18:26
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TUBALLINATOR posted:I'm saying that consumers in places where most growth is expected to come from e.g. China, India etc. are less likely to pay the price premium than western and especially US carrier subsidized markets. I doubt that large growth can be extracted from just replacement buys. The growing middle class in Asia has shown nothing but an appetite for luxury-class goods.
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Sep 17, 2012 18:46
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Wow this is like poking a stick in a hornets nest. Expensive smartphones are status symbols. Spending your whole paycheck or 2/3 on such an item, makes a difference. Brand loyalty is also something that poses a challenge, especially in Asia: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444433504577649262216469238.html I'm just not bullish on Apple, by all means you invest if you so wish.
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Sep 17, 2012 19:18
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Ugh that JBLU investment I made a couple months back is looking bad if commodities are set to rise... I still believe as AAPL innovation slows (assuming it does), we will see how loyal AAPL fans are to the brand. cowofwar posted:They were never at the forefront of technology. They take existing technology, refine the user experience and deliver it in a form that doesn't suck. To put into context, Steve Ballmer railed against the iPhone 1 which was the first all touchscreen cellphone and me railing against the iPhone 5 that has very little improvement except, what? A bigger screen? Aluminum on the back? Is that worth $300? Or $199 with a plan? What I think is the most important piece is the price. It's $200 now for an iphone compared to $500 in 2007 with a plan. That meant it was only available for a certain income bracket or die-hard enthusiasts. But because it's so (relatively) cheap now, does that mean it's still a premium? Is $200 the amount people will pay about every year to upgrade for slightly improved phone? Edit: I do believe AAPL stock price will rise, as will most thing with QE but if you are thinking of going long AAPL at this stage in the company's life, there are better opportunities out there... COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 19:25 on Sep 17, 2012 |
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Sep 17, 2012 19:19
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:I still believe as AAPL innovation slows (assuming it does), we will see how loyal AAPL fans are to the brand. You think innovation is correlated to brand loyalty?
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Sep 17, 2012 19:33
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salted hash browns posted:You think innovation is correlated to brand loyalty? In the cut-throat world of consumer electronics? Yes.
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Sep 17, 2012 19:39
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Inverse Icarus posted:I own a little bit and was thinking of picking up some more since it's on sale right now. Money where my mouth is, pulling the trigger and doubling down on my INTC holdings.
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Sep 17, 2012 20:00
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Just bought a Macbook Pro w/ Retina with (part of) my Apple proceeds. 
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Sep 17, 2012 20:41
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evilwaldo posted:Who doesn't issue a new phone every year? Research In Motion. 
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Sep 17, 2012 21:18
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Turkeybone posted:Just bought a Macbook Pro w/ Retina with (part of) my Apple proceeds. I bought a tank of gas with my Exxon dividend check, I can't lose!
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Sep 17, 2012 21:41
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:To put into context, Steve Ballmer railed against the iPhone 1 which was the first all touchscreen cellphone and me railing against the iPhone 5 that has very little improvement except, what? A bigger screen? Aluminum on the back? Is that worth $300? Or $199 with a plan? It's not "aluminum on the back" that's important. It's a unibody construction that makes it more durable. No Android phones have this. LTE is natural, fine. But 8 hours of LTE browsing? No Android phones have this. Sapphire crystal camera lens cover like luxury Rolex and Omega watches that's virtually scratch-proof. No Android phones have this. Reversible connector. Minor but subtle. You can't tell me that trying to plug in a micro-USB connector in low light is anything but a pain in the rear end. No Android phones have this. 5GHz 802.11n WiFi. Nice, lowly-populated band compared to the clusterfuck that is 2.4GHz. No Android phones have this (that I know of). All of these are useful features. The ONLY thing you can point to that some Android phones have that the iPhone 5 does not have is NFC, and that's useless because almost no retailers have NFC, and normal consumers will take a long time to get used to the idea of putting all their credit card information on their easily lost phones. Look, you can be pessimistic about Apple's future prospects as a way to cover your rear end. But to say they're going to lose their crown anytime time soon, you might as well stuff your money under your mattress. Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 23:11 on Sep 17, 2012 |
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Sep 17, 2012 23:09
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And at the end of the day iOS is just plain nicer to use for most people. The level of polish and simplicity is not matched by anything on the market. I used to care about detailed electronics spec sheets and maximizing all those numbers while spending as little money as possible... when I was 14. Now I realize that none of that poo poo matters if the UI/UX isn't clean and straightforward. Every high-end smartphone on the market has more than enough hardware capability for anything I do on a phone, so I care way more that the whole hardware+software package is smoothly integrated, well designed, and works without any fuss. The current crop of Android phones are all great devices, but they still just aren't up to the level of polish, fit & finish, and hardware-software integration as the iPhone. All of those little details and subtle design/UX touches really do make a difference. I fight computers for a living every day. I'm long over my customize/tweak/hack EVERYTHING phase in life. At this point I just want my personal electronic devices to be pleasant to use and require the bare minimum of configuration/customization. And looking good while doing it is always a plus. Android fans seem to use "design" as a dirty word, whereas I am more than happy to pay a premium for good design - for hardware AND software. I don't think Apple is losing its place in the market any time soon, and I'm not planning on ditching my shares of AAPL any time soon, either. Looking forward to breaking the resistance at 700. 
Guinness fucked around with this message at 23:34 on Sep 17, 2012 |
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Sep 17, 2012 23:24
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I thought I was reading IYG for a minute.
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Sep 17, 2012 23:31
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:Ugh that JBLU investment I made a couple months back is looking bad if commodities are set to rise... Actually, I'm rethinking about my assumption of commodity price rising (specifically oil) and not really sure. On the one hand, QE might cause it. But I remember seeing some charts showing commodity spikes happening on the announcements of QE1 and 2 an then dropping again. Anyway, going to hold tight and read up more on it. Any ideas on where commodities are gonna go?
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Sep 18, 2012 00:14
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Guinness posted:And at the end of the day iOS is just plain nicer to use for most people. The level of polish and simplicity is not matched by anything on the market. Basically this. I am astounded by how competitors are still spec-sheet driven. Good video if you want to understand Apple's ethos. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahtHKCQUD2k
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Sep 18, 2012 02:15
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cremnob posted:Basically this. I am astounded by how competitors are still spec-sheet driven. What blows my mind is that no one has picked up on Apple's big announcement followed by product a couple weeks later. Microsoft really blew their surface tablet (which will likely bomb) by announcing it to pretty wide praise only to have any desire to get it fall away. Nokia and their phone did that as well (also likely to bomb). Is it that hard for them to shut up till it is almost ready to go?
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Sep 18, 2012 03:16
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Foma posted:Is it that hard for them to shut up till it is almost ready to go? I think I already wrote a rant about how frustrating it is that every other company is rushing out products and conferences to try to pre-emptively beat Apple to the punch. In doing so they either have nothing impressive to show (eg: Google maps conference a week before Apple WWDC) or have to fake demos because their product isn't ready net (eg: Nokia lumina video/picture capabilities). It then leads to a subpar product being released, or products which are months away/delayed.
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Sep 18, 2012 03:50
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I'm lucky enough to have not gotten into CMG before they dove. Do you guys think it's a good-ish time now to pick some up? (obviously not as good a time as august, but still) I'm specifically wondering how the midwest US drought is going to affect their costs, but the market is well aware of the drought, so I'd think that's already priced into it.
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Sep 18, 2012 17:48
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lol are any of you actually buying or selling apple stock based on your guesses about the future direction of the mobile market and the ability of different companies in the same sector to capitalize on eachother's misgivings because
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Sep 19, 2012 09:01
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How do you guys feel about WIN for a good long term stock with dividends? They've held a decently steady stock price for the last couple years while doing a TON of expansion. They've finally slowed down their expansion as far as I can tell and have an earnings report coming up in early November. If I'm going to get it should I wait until the report or buy in now and maybe get a nice bump out of the report?
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Sep 19, 2012 16:28
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