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Can anyone recommend a good forex brokerage?
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Oct 31, 2012 04:17
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Oanda has pretty good spreads and makes a point of being as transparent as possible. I've been really happy with them. edit: For small retail accounts. IB is a good semi-pro option that gives you direct access to their liquidity pools and simply charges a commission. Amun fucked around with this message at 04:34 on Oct 31, 2012 |
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Oct 31, 2012 04:31
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I use Interactive Brokers.Amun posted:Oanda has pretty good spreads and makes a point of being as transparent as possible. I've been really happy with them. Yeah, time horizon and the amount you're trading are important considerations when choosing a broker. I've heard good things about Oanda. COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 04:43 on Oct 31, 2012 |
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Oct 31, 2012 04:32
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:I use Interactive Brokers. What about for relatively small intraday trades?
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Oct 31, 2012 04:49
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This is a nice little guide with a lot of numbers: http://www.forexfactory.com/brokers.php
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Oct 31, 2012 05:01
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Cheesemaster200 posted:This. Anytime you think you are making some sneaky play, always assume there are a lot of smarter people with a lot more money already one step ahead of you. You also don't know what the market has already priced in. My shares of URI (equipment rentals) got a nice little 5% Sandy bump today. Of course the stock is volatile is hell so that may get wiped out within a day or two.
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Oct 31, 2012 15:21
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drat, I totally forgot about the insider trading date with Facebook.
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Oct 31, 2012 17:32
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gently caress yea GM
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Oct 31, 2012 18:14
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Well AAPL hit my 590 stop, buy now, fellas, she's goin' up!
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Oct 31, 2012 18:55
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pr0k posted:Well AAPL hit my 590 stop, buy now, fellas, she's goin' up! For what it's worth, even Doug Kass went long on Apple today.
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Oct 31, 2012 18:57
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Din't know who that was before now but he closed half the position already for a $10 gain. Point and a half? Guess he's a famous daytrader? I rode it up from 350 to 700, then back down to 590. I'm out. The iphone 5 is supposed to be selling like hotcakes, but the iPad mini reports are that they are kind of sucky, and the fact they're "sold out already" sounds like make-news or based on the fact that they have had supply chain problems, not because they are actually selling that fast. Samsung is kicking their asses all over the tv with their commercials. I am surprised as hell that apple hasn't fought back yet on that front. Their "I'm a PC" was one of the best things in commercials in pretty much ever. Now? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJafiCKliA8 ouch! (Even though the "sharing a playlist" thing looks pretty stupid.) pr0k fucked around with this message at 20:03 on Oct 31, 2012 |
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Oct 31, 2012 20:00
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Eh, he is more like a famous perma-bear, a foil to Cramer, if you will. It's certainly a decent spot to go long if you believe the 200dma will hold (looking at the weekly chart, it seems a decent bet). The low for today was 587.70, and the 200dma is 587.02. If there's a significant break of 587, well, I just dont know then.
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Oct 31, 2012 20:28
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I figured 600 would trigger buys and 590 would only get tripped if we were freefalling. Time will tell. Right now most of the rumor is bad, I'm hoping it stays that way so I can buy back in much lower.
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Oct 31, 2012 20:39
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I think this is a good time to buy AAPL. I like what I'm hearing about the Mini, and having Ive incharge of more things at the organization is great. Hoping it will bounce off the 200 sma.
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Oct 31, 2012 21:21
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I know this is the trading thread, but the long term investment thread has its head up its rear end so I thought I would post this here. I've spent the last couple of days building a backtesting framework for a modified variation of Active Asset Allocation, as described here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/587491-adaptive-asset-allocation-a-true-revolution-in-portfolio-management In short: this quantitative strategy seems to be very robust in maximizing risk-adjusted returns, much more robust than any other strategy I've come up with over the last 6 months. I've had a number of ideas around active quant ETF trading strategies and all of them fell far short of this one for providing consistent returns over varying time windows and portfolios. Now, the vanilla strategy as mentioned backtests very well and has very low sensitivity to the parameters. One big helpful change is that the window for momentum measurement (which determines which 50% of assets to hold for a given period) should be reduced from 6 months to a shorter timeframe. Beyond that I've done a large number of tests to find the optimal parameters for various portfolios and in short beyond the change to the momentum window the other bits are spot on. Here is an article around the sensitivities which I found to be accurate: http://systematicinvestor.wordpress.com/2012/08/21/adaptive-asset-allocation-sensitivity-analysis/ There are additional changes I made to the vanilla approach such as including additional asset classes and return drivers (via ETF selection) and modifying the standard portfolio variance minimization algorithm to provide a more robust covariance estimator. I'm a bit nervous to let these out since they might be a minor source of alpha since they're not based upon published research. (hard to tell) Anyway, for those of you who might be looking for an active strategy that extends beyond trading individual securities and can excel well beyond buy-and-hold this might be worth looking into. For further reading on the types of ETFs you can include to increase the sharpe of the portfolio each month I'd point you to Expected Returns or Jackass Investing as a starting point. (Though you still need to do your homework.) I'm less nervous about this strategy having a false backtest both due to the way I am testing it (in a more machine-learning like test/train/validation manner) and also because the strategy itself is adaptive to short-term market realities. It's complex enough that your average person will not be able to execute on it effectively (particularly if they take the vanilla approach which will eventually evolve into beta) and far-reaching enough (spanning the entire market of tradable securities) that I don't expect it to be rolled into an ETF. nebby fucked around with this message at 08:31 on Nov 1, 2012 |
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Nov 1, 2012 07:20
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nebby posted:words... Typo aside, with the assets listed in the article and the parameters given. It seems from the eyeball test to me that it would generate going back from a 1995 portfolio heavily weighted in bonds. With the performance of the bond market during that time the returns don't seem to me to be statistically significant/will revert to the mean especially considering interest rates now. I'd love to be proven wrong though and also to see how plugging in different asset classes and a longer timeframe would fit in the model. If you can provide that data that would be interesting.
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Nov 1, 2012 08:23
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shensterz posted:Typo aside, with the assets listed in the article and the parameters given. It seems from the eyeball test to me that it would generate going back from a 1995 portfolio heavily weighted in bonds. With the performance of the bond market during that time the returns don't seem to me to be statistically significant/will revert to the mean especially considering interest rates now. I'd love to be proven wrong though and also to see how plugging in different asset classes and a longer timeframe would fit in the model. If you can provide that data that would be interesting. For example, the current portfolio I have in my strategy had a heavy (2/3) weighting in mortgage reits a few months ago since these were low-correlated assets compared to the other high momentum assets at the time. These generated phenomenal returns over the last several months but the chickens came home to roost with QEInf. The other 1/3 of the portfolio was made up of assets anti-correlated to mortgage reits, so these reduced the overall effect of the mreits price dropping. In fact, I noticed that before the mreits hit the momentum window and dropped out they were downweighted based upon their covariance estimates. After that, the momentum check notices mreits are in the bottom half of assets, so they are dropped from the candidate pool of assets. It's a very simple, elegant algorithm that seems to minimize the tail risks and portfolio volatility/drawdown while harvesting returns off of the various beta of the asset classes currently in play during a trend. nebby fucked around with this message at 08:40 on Nov 1, 2012 |
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Nov 1, 2012 08:31
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:I think this is a good time to buy AAPL. I like what I'm hearing about the Mini, and having Ive incharge of more things at the organization is great. Hoping it will bounce off the 200 sma. I'm wondering if the mini won't just steal sales from the other ipad form factors. Frankly I did not care for the regular ipad size. I had one regular ipad and one galaxy tab on loan from work. I still have the galaxy, but I returned the ipad.
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Nov 1, 2012 19:10
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pr0k posted:I'm wondering if the mini won't just steal sales from the other ipad form factors. Frankly I did not care for the regular ipad size. I had one regular ipad and one galaxy tab on loan from work. I still have the galaxy, but I returned the ipad. It will probably eat into iPad sales a bit--but it's better that they profit from it than Amazon/Google. It might also be a huge gateway like the ipod mini was.
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Nov 1, 2012 19:26
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nebby posted:Some sweet articles This is actually pretty interesting to me. Is there any way to set it up if you can't code though? Or is baby investor better off sticking to an old fashioned diversified portfolio?
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Nov 2, 2012 14:48
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Should I hold on to a very small amount of AONE I picked up at 0.25 in hopes of at least a break-even? I don't understand much about bankruptcy/asset auction and its effect on stock, but I know that a lot of players are interested in their assets. Does this have a chance to cause the stock price to rise, or is the game pretty much over?
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Nov 2, 2012 16:50
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Common stock holders get last licks at whatever money is left, if any. Without knowing anything about AONE, usually the common shareholder is poo poo out of luck.
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Nov 2, 2012 17:12
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awkward_turtle posted:This is actually pretty interesting to me. Is there any way to set it up if you can't code though? Or is baby investor better off sticking to an old fashioned diversified portfolio? 
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Nov 2, 2012 17:41
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alnilam posted:Should I hold on to a very small amount of AONE I picked up at 0.25 in hopes of at least a break-even? The game is over. I didn't even pull a quote, but if it's worth so little at this point that its pointless to sell, you could hold on and hope the equity gets gamed by whoever post-bankruptcy and you can sell into a nonsense bounce. The shares are worthless and will eventually get cancelled, but there could be (and often is) a nonsensical bounce in shares of a bankrupt company due to the great combination of retarded speculators and a tiny market cap.
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Nov 2, 2012 20:41
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alnilam posted:Should I hold on to a very small amount of AONE I picked up at 0.25 in hopes of at least a break-even? If you don't understand much about bankruptcy/asset auction you should not have bought the stock to begin with. I did that once with UAL and doubled my money but never again. You literally hang on every court date and the numbers presented. In an asset auction you will likely not see much in the way of recovery.
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Nov 2, 2012 20:44
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I bought the shares before bankruptcy. Thanks for the tips, I think I'll hold until some kind of nonsense bounce and take the risk of losing it.
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Nov 2, 2012 21:04
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Has anyone seen AMD hit this low before? Last I remember looking $4 was about their lowest.
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Nov 2, 2012 21:24
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That reminds me I shorted a fake 25K of AMD on a mock trading simulator 2 years ago. Time to collect my fake profits. Losing a greater share of a dying market is not the way to make money.
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Nov 2, 2012 22:28
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Has anyone here got any experience at trading FLEX options through the CBOE? I am looking to buy some insanely deep OTM options with a 10-15 year duration and FLEX seems to be the only route.
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Nov 3, 2012 16:19
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Does it make sense to buy MCD now, as a long play? They look cheap, and they certainly aren't going anywhere.
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Nov 4, 2012 07:02
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:Rumor that GOOG or DTV are in talks to buy NFLX... Few pages back but I guess that rumor was Carl Icahn. Moogs posted:Does it make sense to buy MCD now, as a long play? They look cheap, and they certainly aren't going anywhere. Have you looked at the monthly charts? They don't look cheap...
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Nov 4, 2012 23:35
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:Few pages back but I guess that rumor was Carl Icahn.
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Nov 4, 2012 23:37
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Moogs posted:Does it make sense to buy MCD now, as a long play? They look cheap, and they certainly aren't going anywhere. The stock has had a nice run, but it has been under pressure for this entire year. What makes tomorrow the beginning of the turnaround? If you think $85 is going to hold up, then sure, it's not a bad idea, but I wouldn't bet the farm or expect it to start skyrocketing. There are probably better places to park money at the moment.
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Nov 4, 2012 23:59
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:Have you looked at the monthly charts? They don't look cheap... I'm new to investing, what do you mean by this?
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Nov 5, 2012 01:50
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Moogs posted:I'm new to investing, what do you mean by this? It has gained almost 400% in 10 years and while that in itself is fine and it could continue to gain another 15%/year again, I don't think it's exactly cheap with a P/E of 16. Why do you think the price will reverse? What is your timeframe for holding the security? COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 04:03 on Nov 5, 2012 |
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Nov 5, 2012 03:24
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:It has gained almost 400% in 10 years and while that in itself is fine and it could continue to gain another 40%/year again, I don't think it's exactly cheap with a P/E of 16. You make a good point except that 10 years ago MCD's PE was higher. In fact, it's rarely been lower, and when it has been lower, it was a screaming buy during that period. I'm not saying you're wrong, but I think you need to dig a bit deeper if you want to call MCD a hold or a sell. BTW, 40% a year for a decade does not equal 400%. 15% a year for a decade gets you to 400%. edit: their dividend yield has rarely been higher too. The only metric that looks iffy to me is PEG. It's higher than it has been in a while. tiananman fucked around with this message at 03:45 on Nov 5, 2012 |
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Nov 5, 2012 03:41
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:Why do you think the price will reverse? What is your timeframe for holding the security? My thinking is that they've run into some hiccups in the short term, but the big picture is still very positive. I'm planning on holding for years, particularly because they have a strong dividend.
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Nov 5, 2012 04:40
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tiananman posted:You make a good point except that 10 years ago MCD's PE was higher. In fact, it's rarely been lower, and when it has been lower, it was a screaming buy during that period. Dividend yield is the only metric in which some stocks look cheap right now. The problem is taxes on dividends are set to rise at the start of the year so those stocks will look inexpensive. I would not buy your whole lot right now. Buy about a quarter and see where prices go until the end of the year. We are likely heading lower in the short-term until the problems related to the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling clear.
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Nov 5, 2012 07:58
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tiananman posted:You make a good point except that 10 years ago MCD's PE was higher. In fact, it's rarely been lower, and when it has been lower, it was a screaming buy during that period. I meant the PE relative to the rest of the market. That's above average. And I think the current market narrative is that as consumers' confidence about the economy grows, they will spend more on higher quality foods and less on lower quality foods. It's more fun to predict what the next MCD is gonna be. COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Nov 5, 2012 |
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Nov 5, 2012 15:09
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You guys think a gamble on HD, LL, OC might pay off in the next few months or has the money already been made?
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Nov 5, 2012 20:37
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