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Don't mistake analyses with an endorsement.
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Dec 8, 2012 02:45
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watt par posted:That'll come back to bite him in the rear end during the primaries. Looking forward to the CNN debate's holo-audience holo-booing non-geocentric models of the solar system. They are still a generation or two away from believable CGI audiences. I prefer animatronic puppets (sans holo). It just feels less kitschy.
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Dec 8, 2012 02:55
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future VP candidate?quote:It was just a matter of time. Charlie Crist is becoming a Democrat.
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Dec 8, 2012 05:43
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For Americans Elect 2016? The Democratic Party has a poo poo ton of donors etc. who will not tolerate an ex-Republican on the ticket. e: Now that he isn't a Republican is it ok for the media to speculate that he's gay? I'm gonna go email NPR to ask.
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Dec 8, 2012 05:54
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UltimoDragonQuest posted:The Democratic Party has a poo poo ton of donors etc. who will not tolerate an ex-Republican on the ticket. Like Hillary Clinton? Crist was a pretty big player in the Obama reelection campaign, and he torpedoed his own political future in 2009 by taking the Obama side of the Obama vs. crazy people wars. He's probably going to be the Democratic governor of Florida in two years and the Democrats are much more forgiving for past heresies than Republicans. Remember, this is the party where the same powers that be who you think would block a RINO turned Democrat tried to put an actual conservative Republican on the ticket in 2004. Crist already pivoted to almost all of the mainstream Democratic policy points in his 2010 senatorial campaign anyways, not that he was far off of them to begin with, and I'm sure he'll turn even further left in the 2014 primary if we're assuming that and not an Obama cabinet appointment is the objective here.
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Dec 8, 2012 06:04
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SedanChair posted:He didn't really sound all that moderate, though. You're confusing "articulate" with "moderate" which really isn't that surprising considering how few GOP pols can go the distance with Jon Stewart. If you listen carefully he doesn't concede anything. Well, if you look at some of the other things he has said, you don't see him talking like a typical Republican. You should hear him discuss gun control. While he still frames it in the "well, this is what is right for New Jersey," he still supports the New Jersey gun control laws which are incredibly strict. That's not going to play well in a national Republican primary. I understand what some people are saying on the attacking tone. He does have pretty strong numbers in New Jersey (even before Sandy). And yes, it does play well in certain areas of the country. But I think those videos can also be used against him, and if he's running for president, that means you're going to get more "idiots." If he gets nasty or condescending, it isn't going to look good.
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Dec 8, 2012 06:13
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jeffersonlives posted:Like Hillary Clinton?
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Dec 8, 2012 06:23
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Wow, I can't believe that I had never heard about Hillary Clinton being a Republican until now.
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Dec 8, 2012 06:35
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The Thursday Daily Show interview with Christie was surprising, considering the rest of the Republican party seems to be made up of insane hillbillies it was practically uncomfortable to see one that didn't make your feel dumber just hearing. I would assume the Republicans are still screwed in the long term, but if they don't see that Christie is probably the only charismatic Republican candidate combined with getting in trouble with the GOP establishment means he'll actually have a shot of getting people outside the freep crowds, I'll be impressed. Cemetry Gator posted:If he gets nasty or condescending, it isn't going to look good. Yes, a fat angry white guy could never lead the republicans.
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Dec 8, 2012 06:43
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Cemetry Gator posted:Also, is anyone else here from New Jersey? I am, and I wonder if I have a slightly different view of the guy than most because I get to hear about how he yells and screams at people, and how he has a quick temper. And those are things that aren't going to play well on the campaign trail, because you know people are going to push his buttons. I'm from New Jersey (Monmouth County), and while I think Christie has done a good job with Sandy...that's the only thing I like about him. He's a loudmouthed bully who has no problem with demonizing his political opponents and shouting down anyone he deems an idiot. He is very bright, and knows how to glad handle people on the level of Bill Clinton - I've seen him in action when I worked at the station that hosts the "Ask The Gov" radio show he does. But the fact that he is from New Jersey (the Soprano state - last thing America wants is Tony Soprano in the Oval Office), a moderate on some issues - and that he worked with Obama on Sandy I think hurt his brand within the GOP. All the conservative talk show hosts still think he didn't do enough for Romney, and in some small part cost Obama the election. His schtick plays well in New Jersey, but I doubt it would do well anywhere else.
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Dec 8, 2012 12:29
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A lot of us were republicans, then libertarians, then liberals. It's a natural growing phase.
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Dec 8, 2012 17:11
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greatn posted:A lot of us were republicans, then libertarians, then liberals. It's a natural growing phase. To be honest, that isn't very common among average people, unless one's a pol in my opinion. Most right leaning people, stay that way. Brain thing I guess. It's the only way I can accept one of my friends being a literal war mongering republican, who says "god-bless-america" instead of goddamnit.
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Dec 8, 2012 20:37
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BUSH 2112 posted:Wow, I can't believe that I had never heard about Hillary Clinton being a Republican until now. Probably because she left the Republican party in college. It doesn't really have any bearing on her now.
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Dec 8, 2012 22:43
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Ammat The Ankh posted:Probably because she left the Republican party in college. It doesn't really have any bearing on her now. That, and the Republican Party she was a part of was the party of Goldwater, not the party of Reagan. Not much better, but still better.
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Dec 9, 2012 00:09
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Lightning Knight posted:That, and the Republican Party she was a part of was the party of Goldwater, not the party of Reagan. Not much better, but still better. There's also her history of being fairly hawkish. Like the prototypical image of establishment Democrat is basically just an image of Bill & Hillary. I love them for their speaking and political skills, but they aren't exactly very progressive economically or on foreign policy. So her being a GOP'er in college doesn't really mean the party was better back then. It's really more of a sign of how far right the country has slid that the current right wing holds her up as Exhibit A in their indictment of 'the evil liberal socialist movement that's ruining this country.' All of her views were completely non-controversial in that era of the GOP, but now it's all become "socialism." I hesitate to say that the GOP was flat out better back then because both parties are complicit in this. They both marched rightward together, hand in hand. So it's really a larger phenomenon than the dynamics of that one single party. ErIog fucked around with this message at 09:14 on Dec 9, 2012 |
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Dec 9, 2012 09:10
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BUSH 2112 posted:Wow, I can't believe that I had never heard about Hillary Clinton being a Republican until now. Elizabeth Warren was a Republican until the mid 90's I believe.
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Dec 9, 2012 13:19
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Cemetry Gator posted:Christie videos I'm from New Jersey but I live in Brooklyn now. People like Christie because he doesn't put up with people's poo poo. I don't agree with some of his positions, but he is a breath of fresh air amongst a huge amount of talking heads. He does know how to handle himself (see everyone's post about his Daily Show interview) and actually talk and frame his positions. Doh004 fucked around with this message at 17:10 on Dec 9, 2012 |
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Dec 9, 2012 17:07
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ErIog posted:There's also her history of being fairly hawkish. Like the prototypical image of establishment Democrat is basically just an image of Bill & Hillary. I love them for their speaking and political skills, but they aren't exactly very progressive economically or on foreign policy. So her being a GOP'er in college doesn't really mean the party was better back then. It's really more of a sign of how far right the country has slid that the current right wing holds her up as Exhibit A in their indictment of 'the evil liberal socialist movement that's ruining this country.' All of this granted, I meant that it was better because Goldwater's Republican Party didn't include the Religious Right.
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Dec 9, 2012 17:11
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Why is not putting up with people's poo poo a positive attribute? If anyone should have to put up with people's poo poo it's our elected leaders.
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Dec 9, 2012 17:59
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Pillowpants posted:Elizabeth Warren was a Republican until the mid 90's I believe.
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Dec 9, 2012 18:10
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greatn posted:Why is not putting up with people's poo poo a positive attribute? If anyone should have to put up with people's poo poo it's our elected leaders. It's New Jersey, it's honestly surprising they hadn't already elected Bobby Bacala before.
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Dec 9, 2012 19:49
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greatn posted:Why is not putting up with people's poo poo a positive attribute? If anyone should have to put up with people's poo poo it's our elected leaders. Not putting up with poo poo != not listening to your constituents and not working for them. I'd rather have a politician actually be honest instead of just nodding his head and then not following through with anything.
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Dec 9, 2012 21:02
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Doh004 posted:Not putting up with poo poo != not listening to your constituents and not working for them. I'd rather have a politician actually be honest instead of just nodding his head and then not following through with anything. He's still a poo poo politician. Don't give him points for honesty when he's honestly poo poo.
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Dec 10, 2012 01:56
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Neremworld posted:He's still a poo poo politician. Don't give him points for honesty when he's honestly poo poo. Hmm, no thanks. If I wanted to merely contribute to the echo chamber that is DND then I'd do that instead. This thread is to discuss potential candidates and why/why not people think they'll have a chance at running in four years. Doesn't mean you have to agree with their policies (as I said I didn't necessarily).
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Dec 10, 2012 02:23
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Doh004 posted:Not putting up with poo poo != not listening to your constituents and not working for them. I'd rather have a politician actually be honest instead of just nodding his head and then not following through with anything. I feel like you're equivocating two different things. It's one thing to not put up with poo poo, it's another thing to be a bellicose jerk about it. It's a completely different thing when you post videos of you doing it to Youtube with delightful titles like "Christie gets into a shouting match with an idiot," and then go and say "Hey, that's how we do things in Jersey." It is possible to be polite and calm, and still not take poo poo from people. It's a show that might play well with some people, but it also turns a lot of people off. And it's a shame, because Christie is more than just a guy who shouts at people. He's an intelligent person who is capable of articulating his thoughts in a productive manner. And you know what, when the chips came down, he's coming through for Jersey on Sandy. But the tough-talking circus act isn't going to look good on a national stage, especially when you have a lot of other people gunning for your position.
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Dec 10, 2012 03:11
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Cemetry Gator posted:I feel like you're equivocating two different things. It's one thing to not put up with poo poo, it's another thing to be a bellicose jerk about it. It's a completely different thing when you post videos of you doing it to Youtube with delightful titles like "Christie gets into a shouting match with an idiot," and then go and say "Hey, that's how we do things in Jersey." I didn't post those videos  But in regards to the three that were posted, I don't think he was being that bad in two of them. The one where the reporter asks him about whether or not he'd be attending the special meeting that he had called is him being a jerk and he lost his cool. Something he'll have to not do.But yes, he does need to tone it down a bit when going to the national stage, I agree. And I believe he is capable of doing it now that the time has come for him to do it. Doh004 fucked around with this message at 03:51 on Dec 10, 2012 |
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Dec 10, 2012 03:49
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Cemetry Gator posted:But the tough-talking circus act isn't going to look good on a national stage, especially when you have a lot of other people gunning for your position. Being a belligerent douchebag plays pretty well with a large portion of the electorate (eg, people who vote republican). Notice how pissed off republicans are at him now that he's acting like a decent and reasonable human being? After he's re-elected in NJ, I expect Christie will revert back to form and play his fat bellicose act all the way to the primaries in '16. Rubio can spew republican talking points, but he just can't capture that, "i'm an angry white person threatened by change" mentality that Christie can. Romney also had trouble with this, and look at all the grief it gave him during the primaries this past year. The only reason he won was because Santorum (and more laughably, Gingrich) was just so clearly unelectable in a general election, which seems to be a perception that Christie doesn't suffer from. Also Rubio's first name is Marco and he has brown skin. I think those also weigh heavily against him in the republican primaries. edit: fixed spacing
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Dec 10, 2012 04:31
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BlackJoo posted:The only reason he won was because Santorum (and more laughably, Gingrich) was just so clearly unelectable in a general election, which seems to be a perception that Christie doesn't suffer from. Nah, Romney only won because the Republican leadership decided he should, and that was that. Likewise, if they decide that Christie should be the nominee in 2016, then he will be. Any Republicans who don't like it will complain all through the primaries, then close ranks in the general just like with Romney. If Christie is picked and loses, it won't be because Republicans didn't vote for him, it'll be because the Republican Party is too white and male to win.
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Dec 10, 2012 05:21
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BlackJoo posted:Rubio can spew republican talking points, but he just can't capture that, "i'm an angry white person threatened by change" mentality that Christie can. Romney also had trouble with this, and look at all the grief it gave him during the primaries this past year. The only reason he won was because Santorum (and more laughably, Gingrich) was just so clearly unelectable in a general election, which seems to be a perception that Christie doesn't suffer from. The biggest problem Romney had was that he was so inauthentic, he just appeared stiff and lifeless. I mean, here's a great video that really shows the difference between Christie and Romney. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuY1TpHgVpc Christie has palpable energy. The guy is charismatic, he's lively, he's a natural. He feeds off the crowd, and he feeds the crowd. He looks like he belongs on that stage. Now look at Romney. Just kind of standing awkwardly, with that weird grimacing smile he always wears. He looks incredibly awkward, and he just has no presence. He looks like the candidate's kids when they make an appearance, you know, they're not used to the stage, they don't know where to fit, they just sort of hope to cling to the background. Yeah, Christie is the focal point of attention, but still, you got to look a little better than that. And listen to them speak. Romney sounded like a businessman making a sales pitch to you. He doesn't really command the room, he doesn't ever put energy into what he's saying. It's a very calculated style. But Christie, Christie sounds like a preacher. He's up there, he's always a little unhinged, and he sounds loose and natural. He's not afraid to be a little vulgar, saying "hell" and "drat" on occasion, which just adds to that looseness. You feel like he wants you to believe what he's saying, and more importantly, that he believes it too. Romney was basically the least insane choice in the room.
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Dec 10, 2012 05:40
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When Romney dropped out in Feb of 2008 I told my parents "Well, there's the GOP nominee for 2012." He absolutely could have fought McCain tooth and nail in '08 with a pretty reasonable chance to win the nomination, but he chose to drop out early to get all the big money for the '12 run and avoid the Bush backlash. Romney is a cold, calculating dude who wants to wring the most opportunity (aka MONEY) out of every situation that presents itself to him. In the business world, that's a pretty great image to have. In politics, not so much. Notice that nowhere in this campaign did you hear of Romney writing his campaign a personal check. The only thing he spent was his time, and now he's got that back. He's already back on the board of Mariott hotels. Also, now he can amend his 2011 tax return to take all the deductions he bypassed so that he could tell everyone he paid 13% in taxes that year. He's getting all that money between the 13% he showed everyone and whatever he could've paid (around 9%) back. He's even less appealing than Scrooge McDuck because at least the Disney character had a personality and accent. Ann Romney can cry all she wants about not living in the White House, but at least she has DANCING HORSES to amuse her.
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Dec 10, 2012 09:26
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skaboomizzy posted:When Romney dropped out in Feb of 2008 I told my parents "Well, there's the GOP nominee for 2012." He absolutely could have fought McCain tooth and nail in '08 with a pretty reasonable chance to win the nomination, but he chose to drop out early to get all the big money for the '12 run and avoid the Bush backlash. This is not true at all. Huckabee had gained steam and was starting to win states, and almost seemed to stubbornly stay in to spite Romney. Romney dropped out because Mccain was 60% of where he needed to be after Super Tuesday. He really didn't have a chance once Huckabee started winning southern states.
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Dec 10, 2012 14:14
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Pillowpants posted:This is not true at all. Huckabee had gained steam and was starting to win states, and almost seemed to stubbornly stay in to spite Romney. Romney dropped out because Mccain was 60% of where he needed to be after Super Tuesday. He really didn't have a chance once Huckabee started winning southern states. I seem to remember Romney failing to win the Florida primary as being his specific Waterloo, even though he was in through Super Tuesday and then conceded at CPAC. I guess since McCain was starting to roll, Romney needed a Florida win in order to establish some threshold of viability that would net him additional wins in Super Tuesday states, and he didn't get it. McCain throwing his delegates to Huckabee to cock-block Romney out of West Virginia is probably my favorite moment from that primary. I could just imagine Romney staring at a TV monitor, fists clenched, jaw silently working.
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Dec 10, 2012 14:25
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Doh004 posted:Hmm, no thanks. If I wanted to merely contribute to the echo chamber that is DND then I'd do that instead. This thread is to discuss potential candidates and why/why not people think they'll have a chance at running in four years. Doesn't mean you have to agree with their policies (as I said I didn't necessarily). I never said you did. I just said you shouldn't give someone points for being honest if the things they say honestly are terrible. People are going to eventually tire of his loud-mouthed opinions. Just because you are honest in saying something doesn't mean that will win you votes with people who don't already agree with you. We saw two candidates get taken down by that already this year, at least. That was my point. So go whine about echo chambers elsewhere. Because of that, I think that's actually why he'd do worse on the National stage, because he doesn't have much of a filter. And unlike Biden, he doesn't have a reputation for 'making gaffes' so he won't be as teflon as Biden has been. His record has been really shoddy outside of Sandy, and I'm unsure if that will be able to help him get over the hurdle of being seen as a fat dick who has to take a helicopter to his son's game and then a car to the next fifty feet to the stands. Those pictures still exist.
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Dec 10, 2012 14:58
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Neremworld posted:I never said you did. I just said you shouldn't give someone points for being honest if the things they say honestly are terrible. People are going to eventually tire of his loud-mouthed opinions. Just because you are honest in saying something doesn't mean that will win you votes with people who don't already agree with you. We saw two candidates get taken down by that already this year, at least. That was my point. So go whine about echo chambers elsewhere. Would you rather I contribute something that we can all agree with and continually pat ourselves on our backs because we're just so right? Or, you know, discuss possibilities and characteristics/qualities of potential candidates four years down the road that the rest of America will decide upon (not just us here in DND)? Take your pick. Neremworld posted:Because of that, I think that's actually why he'd do worse on the National stage, because he doesn't have much of a filter. And unlike Biden, he doesn't have a reputation for 'making gaffes' so he won't be as teflon as Biden has been. Except he does have a filter and he's shown it already, as have we in this very thread. Neremworld posted:His record has been really shoddy outside of Sandy, and I'm unsure if that will be able to help him get over the hurdle of being seen as a fat dick who has to take a helicopter to his son's game and then a car to the next fifty feet to the stands. Those pictures still exist. You really do enjoy those strawman arguments, don't you? I thought we'd be over this a long time ago when this actually happened. No one is going to remember it except for us here.
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Dec 10, 2012 15:16
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Doh004 posted:Would you rather I contribute something that we can all agree with and continually pat ourselves on our backs because we're just so right? Or, you know, discuss possibilities and characteristics/qualities of potential candidates four years down the road that the rest of America will decide upon (not just us here in DND)? Take your pick. Are you seriously ranting to me about an echo chamber because I disagreed with you? I wasn't saying you had to agree with anything. I said I disagreed and in my second post went into WHY. I don't loving care if you disagree with me. Give me an argument rather then "STRAW MEN! ECHO CHAMBER!" quote:Except he does have a filter and he's shown it already, as have we in this very thread. I remember him screaming at people and calling them idiots for not evacuating. While they were idiots, that's a thing that'll get played as unpresidential (as it is). quote:You really do enjoy those strawman arguments, don't you? I thought we'd be over this a long time ago when this actually happened. No one is going to remember it except for us here. What strawman argument did I make? I was stating MY arguments for why I think his honesty is a liability for the national stage. Or are you making a jab at my avatar I got for mocking a crazy dude in GBS who proclaimed that looking someone in the eyes in Texas is a sign of deep disrespect and results in murder. He didn't know what a strawman was. As regards to the 'no one is going to remember it except for us' that's what pictures are for. All that poo poo returns when you go up for Presidency. No one remembered the dog on the roof until it got rebrought up when Mitt Romney started running. EDIT: Even if 'no one remembers it', it'll add to the whatever national narrative the Democratics try to build about him. While it won't be 'fat and lazy lol' it'll probably go off the fact that he used a helicopter to go there and then drove (a short distance) anyways. Very much a waste of money and a pretty good blow against any sort of "fiscally responsible" narrative the Republicans would want to set up about him. Same with him torpedoing the completely-federally funded high speed trains. These events do matter, not by themselves but in what it plants into people's minds. 47% was forgotten after a couple of weeks but it helped lock in the narrative of Romney being an out-of-touch rich guy and that helped sink him. Neremworld fucked around with this message at 15:43 on Dec 10, 2012 |
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Dec 10, 2012 15:29
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All you "but Chris Christie is BAD!" types need to explain how that hurts his electoral chances. It's like you think that our assessment of him is going to leak to the GOP and they'll be like "poo poo I never realized he's charismatic and can relate to people! RUN THE FATTY!" Blood gates, etc. We know he's a Republican, go remind your family on Facebook about it.
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Dec 10, 2012 15:41
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SedanChair posted:All you "but Chris Christie is BAD!" types need to explain how that hurts his electoral chances. It's like you think that our assessment of him is going to leak to the GOP and they'll be like "poo poo I never realized he's charismatic and can relate to people! RUN THE FATTY!" Blood gates, etc. We know he's a Republican, go remind your family on Facebook about it. I just did in an edit. Sorry for being a bit late. Despite all what I said, I think he'd honestly be one of the strongest candidates they could run. If NOT the strongest. I wasn't calling him uncharismatic at all, just saying that the things he has done as a Governor could come back to haunt him and build a mental image of him in voter's minds to counter all of his good points. EDIT: Sadly all the people I know are either apolitical or Republicans (price of having lived in Texas most of my life) so this is really the only place I have to discuss this stuff. Which is what also this thread is for, so it's convenient.
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Dec 10, 2012 15:45
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Neremworld posted:I remember him screaming at people and calling them idiots for not evacuating. While they were idiots, that's a thing that'll get played as unpresidential (as it is). The worst was him going on a tear about the mayor of Atlantic City during a pre-landfall press conference, calling the guy names and blaming him for any potential deaths. Absolutely childish and it made me worried since big hurricanes aren't a thing up there he'd get in the way of FEMA afterward and seriously put lives in danger because of his grandstanding and churlishness. Could you imagine how he'd handle a full-blown national emergency? Really the best thing one can say he did with Sandy was request federal funds in a timely fashion and got out of the way so actual competent officials could do their jobs.
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Dec 10, 2012 15:46
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Neremworld posted:Are you seriously ranting to me about an echo chamber because I disagreed with you? I wasn't saying you had to agree with anything. I said I disagreed and in my second post went into WHY. I don't loving care if you disagree with me. Give me an argument rather then "STRAW MEN! ECHO CHAMBER!" Disagree with me all you want, I'm fine with that. Don't tell me what to say or how I should feel about something. Neremworld posted:I remember him screaming at people and calling them idiots for not evacuating. While they were idiots, that's a thing that'll get played as unpresidential (as it is). Yeah, he does need to tone it down a bit, even if he's saying what we're all thinking. Neremworld posted:What strawman argument did I make? I was stating MY arguments for why I think his honesty is a liability for the national stage. Or are you making a jab at my avatar I got for mocking a crazy dude in GBS who proclaimed that looking someone in the eyes in Texas is a sign of deep disrespect and results in murder. He didn't know what a strawman was. I was making a jab at your avatar, but I was also talking about the whole using the helicopter to fly to his son's game and him being too fat to walk the 50 feet and blah blah blah. That poo poo played out, he apologized, paid for the cost of the helicopter flight and moved on. Just like the rest of us had. There's plenty more to discredit about him (like his fiscal policies). The difference between that and the Romney dog episode, is Christie has the gall to actually address it. "Yes, it was a mistake and I've already apologized for it. I made sure to pay for the costs of the flight myself. Now, if we can get back to the issues at hand...". There's his answer for it in four years. Doh004 fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Dec 10, 2012 |
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Dec 10, 2012 17:19
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My biggest issue with Christie is his lying about the cost of the high speed rail and killing it. He continues to lite about it now even with disputes showing it would cost WAY LESS than he said it would.
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Dec 10, 2012 17:30
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