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What I don't understand is why Biden seems to consistently have a low national approval rating. Taking a snapshot of today from Pew Biden's at 42/42, but their Cheney numbers at the start of Bush's second term were 48/42. Brigadier Sockface fucked around with this message at 13:38 on Jan 20, 2013 |
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Jan 20, 2013 13:35
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Can Biden honestly win the nomination? Isn't part of his free-wheeling charm acceptable because it's done under the umbrella of the Obama administration? Would that last if he has to stand on his own two legs? I'm talking purely public and media perception here, too. I fully understand that Biden has a ridiculous resume, has been very active in the administration (at least recently), and is a more than competent administrator/legislator/etc.
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Jan 20, 2013 15:36
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Joe Biden is actually President right now.quote:Indeed, because of Justice Sotomayor’s important book signing, Biden will be taking the Oath of the Presidency hours before Obama. Thus, between 8:00 a.m. and noon, Biden will be President. In fact, there would be a President Joe Biden, and two Vice Presidents Joe Biden. Well played Sotomayor, well Played.
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Jan 20, 2013 15:36
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Biden's sort of a meme, I've taken. Lot of internet liberals embrace Biden and his folksy charm, but most of the low-info voters on either side of the aisle buy the gaffe machine narrative. It'll be interesting if Hillary doesn't run. Biden will probably pick up the approval rating if he avoids reaffirming the gaffe machine narrative too much(outside, say, calling Obamacare a Big loving Deal) and presents himself as the witty yet wise elder statesman he's been doing as VP. On Biden vs. Cheney: The left is also more splintered than the right. Even in 2004, the right was lockstep behind GWB and Cheney. Whereas there's plenty of leftists who view the Obama administration as 90s Republicans and basically voted for him over Romney because Romney is Romney, and that's terrifying. You end up not really approving of the guy you voted for. That said, Biden has a better shot of being President(elected, and not with his two clones on the under-ticket) than Cheney ever did. Cheney never wanted it, and even if he did, I'd find it real hard for him to even compete given he was mostly invisible through the GWB years and he's not charming at all. I'm personally curious if in the case of a Biden 2016 nomination if he sways any voters from the right on simply being a white male, or if being attached to Obama(regardless of the success of term #2) taints him in their distorted world view. How much is race a factor, in say, Missouri?
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Jan 20, 2013 16:01
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Wheresmy5bucks posted:
I'm sure plenty of people can rationalize it as "he was just trying to keep the presidency at least partially white" or some other racist bullshit.
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Jan 20, 2013 16:03
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Joementum posted:Joe Biden is actually President right now.
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Jan 20, 2013 16:29
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I am now fairly convinced after the lame duck and inauguration ceremonies that Biden is already running.
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Jan 21, 2013 23:22
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Biden's going to be traveling to Germany, France and the UK next month as well for high level meetings. And when he gets back, if anyone asks Obama whether Biden accomplished anything I'm betting he'll be a bit more generous than, "If you give me a week, I may think of something."
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Jan 21, 2013 23:27
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In addition to the "gaffe" (which was not a gaffe) at the Iowa inaugural ball (which revealed he was at the Iowa inaugural ball), Biden also invited essentially every major and semi-major Democrat in New Hampshire to the small private swearing in ceremony yesterday at the Naval Observatory. He's not even pretending well.
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Jan 21, 2013 23:36
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Even during the campaign his staff was telling reporters that they were looking into a 2016 run. He's never been hiding it. People just didn't want to believe because they think he'll be too old or Hillary will run and take all the wind out of his sails. Assuming Hillary doesn't run, it'll be very interesting to see if there are prominent challenges to Biden. Cuomo won't challenge Hillary, but he might run against Biden.
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Jan 21, 2013 23:44
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A popular Biden is a terrible, terrible candidate for Cuomo to be running against in a clash of the titans kind of primary. Biden's going to be able to flank Cuomo on gay rights/gun control/works well with Republicans, which are the essential cores of the Cuomo primary argument. Biden's one of the two plausible candidates in the party that can beat Cuomo in name rec and money. When you put Joe Biden and Andrew Cuomo in rural Iowa and New Hampshire to try and win the party faithful with personality and charisma, well, Joe Biden's going to win a lot more retail votes than Andrew Cuomo. And of course Biden's already done this twice, which is a significant advantage for things like the seven dwarves debates and personal relationships with the right operatives in the key states. The more I ponder 2016, the more I realize just how formidable Biden is if he's healthy and he wants it. He's not quite Hillary, but he presents a lot of the same challenges to that Cuomo/O'Malley/Warner class, the second tier of the eastern white males.
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Jan 22, 2013 00:00
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I completely agree. I just think Cuomo is the only challenger to Biden who is not named Hillary who could make it a serious contest through New Hampshire. If neither Hillary nor Cuomo challenges Biden we'll be in a primary situation like 2000 where Bill Bradley ran against Gore, but nobody really cared. If the state-level Democratic bench were strong enough that there was a credible non-Hillary female or black challenger this would possibly be different, but the party has a lot of building to do there.
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Jan 22, 2013 00:06
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Joementum posted:If the state-level Democratic bench were strong enough that there was a credible non-Hillary female or black challenger this would possibly be different, but the party has a lot of building to do there. In that vein I suspect Kirsten Gillibrand would be the biggest obstacle from New York for Biden and not Cuomo, although I still assume that Clinton/Cuomo/Gillibrand are all going to get in a room at some point in 2014 and hash out which one of them is actually running.
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Jan 22, 2013 00:12
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jeffersonlives posted:A popular Biden is a terrible, terrible candidate for Cuomo to be running against in a clash of the titans kind of primary. But is Biden really all that popular? Pew has his approval ratings at 42% 10 points lower than Obama's. I'm not saying he can't become popular later, or he wouldn't become popular actively running in a primary. But right now, Biden seems to be more of the Beltway favorite more than anything else. Joementum posted:Even during the campaign his staff was telling reporters that they were looking into a 2016 run. He's never been hiding it. People just didn't want to believe because they think he'll be too old or Hillary will run and take all the wind out of his sails. Does Cuomo have ties to the Clinton camp that make you certain of that? Or is she just that big of a force that he probably won't consider it, while Biden is at least possibly beatable?
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Jan 22, 2013 00:13
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notthegoatseguy posted:But is Biden really all that popular? Pew has his approval ratings at 42% 10 points lower than Obama's. Former HUD Secretary Cuomo and the Clintons be tight. Its been said the he considers Bill to be his mentor and solicits his advice regularly. Brigadier Sockface fucked around with this message at 00:19 on Jan 22, 2013 |
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Jan 22, 2013 00:15
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notthegoatseguy posted:Does Cuomo have ties to the Clinton camp that make you certain of that? Or is she just that big of a force that he probably won't consider it, while Biden is at least possibly beatable? The latter. If Hillary announces early, she clears the field because you have to be a very special person to beat Hillary Clinton in a 2016 primary and Cuomo is not that person because that person doesn't really exist. Now if Hillary delays her announcement (and I won't believe she's not running until she misses a filing deadline) things get interesting for Cuomo.
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Jan 22, 2013 00:17
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notthegoatseguy posted:But is Biden really all that popular? Pew has his approval ratings at 42% 10 points lower than Obama's. PPP has Biden at 73/22 favorables among Democrats - and Cuomo at 36/20. Biden's global job performance numbers are meaningless in a Dem primary. Biden's nearly as popular as Clinton and Obama amongst Democrats, and most importantly universally known (in major contrast to 1988 and 2008), whereas Cuomo's favorables amongst Democrats are not robust and his name recognition is only so-so considering his position and press.
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Jan 22, 2013 00:19
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notthegoatseguy posted:But is Biden really all that popular? Pew has his approval ratings at 42% 10 points lower than Obama's.
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Jan 22, 2013 00:20
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ufarn posted:I'd look into historical precedents and check the difference in approval ratings between presidents and their VPs throughout history before coming to any conclusion. Opinion polls don't mean too much until the campaign begins, because most people aren't particularly aware of the candidate. Approval ratings can look pretty bad 24 months out, much less 36, but it's just because there's no established identity.
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Jan 22, 2013 00:25
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Kaal posted:Opinion polls don't mean too much until the campaign begins, because most people aren't particularly aware of the candidate. Approval ratings can look pretty bad 24 months out, much less 36, but it's just because there's no established identity. Especially considering whatever the hell the GOP end up electing. At least the debates will be better to watch for Democrats.
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Jan 22, 2013 00:39
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I can imagine Christie adding some color to the GOP debate. It's going to be either him or Rubio. I have a deep desire for Rand to win some states and play kingmaker though. Christie, spurned, goes ballistic.
Brigadier Sockface fucked around with this message at 00:48 on Jan 22, 2013 |
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Jan 22, 2013 00:42
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Brigadier Sockface posted:I can imagine Christie adding some color to the GOP debate. It's going to be either him or Rubio. I have a deep desire for Rand to win some states and play kingmaker though. Would be amazing to watch Christine loose in at primary debate at a tea party type question. "Listen assholes this tea party poo poo means you'll never win the general election!"
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Jan 22, 2013 00:50
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I want to imagine a huge reason Biden isn't that popular is because not as many really knows about him besides "lol gaffe machine". With full media attention, that could change. Edit: Also I fully believe Christie stands the highest chance of winning in the GOP so people will probably stand behind him begrudgingly regardless of what happens. He's going to get the nod IMO. Then again I'm a total idiot! anime was right fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Jan 22, 2013 |
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Jan 22, 2013 00:58
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Other than supporting Amtrak, does Biden have any unique policy positions that distinguish him from all of the milquetoast Democrats? I can't really remember anything that might have made me want to vote for him over Obama or Hillary in 2008.
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Jan 22, 2013 01:06
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Waterbed posted:I want to imagine a huge reason Biden isn't that popular is because not as many really knows about him besides "lol gaffe machine". If it were Hillary vs Christie, I'd be hopeful to see Arkansas and West Virgina go blue.
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Jan 22, 2013 01:06
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Inferior Third Season posted:Other than supporting Amtrak, does Biden have any unique policy positions that distinguish him from all of the milquetoast Democrats? I can't really remember anything that might have made me want to vote for him over Obama or Hillary in 2008. It probably isn't an issue an electorate (any electorate) will be attracted to, but he was either the ranking or chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, switching places with Lugar depending on the party in power. Not that there's a single issue there, but he has a lot of experience in that area and, similar to how he's buddy-buddy with his former colleagues in the Senate, he has relationships with world leaders as well.
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Jan 22, 2013 01:09
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notthegoatseguy posted:It probably isn't an issue an electorate (any electorate) will be attracted to, but he was either the ranking or chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, switching places with Lugar depending on the party in power. Not that there's a single issue there, but he has a lot of experience in that area and, similar to how he's buddy-buddy with his former colleagues in the Senate, he has relationships with world leaders as well. He also chaired Judiciary. He was one of the lead authors of VAWA, amongst many other things.
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Jan 22, 2013 01:10
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Inferior Third Season posted:Other than supporting Amtrak, does Biden have any unique policy positions that distinguish him from all of the milquetoast Democrats? I can't really remember anything that might have made me want to vote for him over Obama or Hillary in 2008. I have to give him credit for this: Biden posted:WASHINGTON -- Vice President Joe Biden said transgender discrimination is "the civil rights issue of our time" during a visit to a Florida field office on Tuesday, according to pool reports.
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Jan 22, 2013 01:51
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Don't make me love you, Biden, don't you dare. 
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Jan 22, 2013 02:11
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On a personal level, I'm hoping Biden gets in and gets in early. I'm surprised Cuomo is still thoroughly a Clintonite, though, since he was the point man for the clusterfuck that was almost nominating Mario Cuomo to the Supreme Court. I can't imagine that did him any favors.
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Jan 22, 2013 02:25
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CheesyDog posted:I have to give him credit for this: The cynic in me tells me it was just pandering, the optimist points out we haven't been worth pandering to before.
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Jan 22, 2013 05:43
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Biden won't run because he can't drive his vette while he's in the White House.
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Jan 22, 2013 07:02
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At last, now that the inauguration ceremony is done with we can now fully focus on this, the country's most pressing issue.
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Jan 22, 2013 10:21
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Inferior Third Season posted:Other than supporting Amtrak, does Biden have any unique policy positions that distinguish him from all of the milquetoast Democrats? I can't really remember anything that might have made me want to vote for him over Obama or Hillary in 2008. Biden is a pretty enthusiastic supporter of women's rights, and he created the Violence Against Women Act. (which the GOP just let expire a couple weeks ago) If the GOP goes full rape apologist mode again in 2016, Biden would probably tear them to pieces over it.
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Jan 22, 2013 22:28
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The only thing that would not be fun in a Biden race would be the incessant chattering of practically everyone about Biden being a gaffemaker. It might not even matter if Christie says "I intend to ban all abortions" if a Biden gaffe like "back in chains" ends up being all that's on voters' lips.
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Jan 22, 2013 23:14
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ComradeCosmobot posted:The only thing that would not be fun in a Biden race would be the incessant chattering of practically everyone about Biden being a gaffemaker. It might not even matter if Christie says "I intend to ban all abortions" if a Biden gaffe like "back in chains" ends up being all that's on voters' lips. A lot of Biden's "gaffes" aren't actually gaffes, he likes to push buttons. His biggest problem is actually message discipline, not gaffes.
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Jan 22, 2013 23:18
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jeffersonlives posted:A lot of Biden's "gaffes" aren't actually gaffes, he likes to push buttons. His biggest problem is actually message discipline, not gaffes. Sure they aren't. But that doesn't mean it's what the public at large will hear/believe.
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Jan 22, 2013 23:27
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jeffersonlives posted:A lot of Biden's "gaffes" aren't actually gaffes, he likes to push buttons. His biggest problem is actually message discipline, not gaffes. Exactly. I remember when he first found out that people were all over his "back in chains" comment, his response was "That's the part they're upset about??" He's a passionate, likable guy, and he owned his debate against Ryan. Most of Biden's credibility is going to depend on how the economy goes the next 4 years. If things go backwards, or don't improve quickly enough, he might be seen as a continuation of the same failed policies going up against the fresh, new face of Chris Christie. Christie can come off as moderate and bi-partisan when he needs to, and when he's upset about something that you're upset about, he owns. That'd be an interesting election cycle.
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Jan 22, 2013 23:29
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So he could just be hungover from the awesome after party he threw yesterday, but today Rahm Emanuel said his next election is in 2016. Chicago mayor election will be 2015  http://www.suntimes.com/17738411-761/freudian-slip-or-just-tired-rahm-says-next-election-2016-primary.html
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Jan 23, 2013 00:45
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Misandrist Duck posted:So he could just be hungover from the awesome after party he threw yesterday, but today Rahm Emanuel said his next election is in 2016. Chicago mayor election will be 2015
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Jan 23, 2013 00:51
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