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Arglebargle III posted:
Yeah, but if people get killed because of the above recklessness, it becomes hard to dial the situation back.
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Jan 24, 2013 17:34
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A big flaming stink posted:I mean, you say that plutocrats know that wars are against their long term interest, but when do they ever act in favor of long term interest if a short term benefit is available? Politicians by their nature pay far more attention to their own survival than that of the country, a shooting war doesn't help them very much there. They know the greatest threat to the gravy-train is the Chinese public getting so incensed that their security forces can't knock them back down and a humiliating defeat to the Japanese over a rock might push the public over the edge. The Chinese government seems to have enough control over the Chinese military to keep them in-line and the public might trash a Toyota dealership but they have no real way of sparking a war. The leadership just needs to sound like the are talking real tough, until people get bored and then will wait a while a bring it up again.
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Jan 24, 2013 19:08
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Ardennes posted:Politicians by their nature pay far more attention to their own survival than that of the country, a shooting war doesn't help them very much there. They know the greatest threat to the gravy-train is the Chinese public getting so incensed that their security forces can't knock them back down and a humiliating defeat to the Japanese over a rock might push the public over the edge. The PLA has it's fingers in enough high-level business interests that actual war is not really a very lucrative venture. Much more money in peace. Of course, they have to rattle some sabers now and again to justify their existence and remain an actual potent threat. But actual war? Ffff, honestly not all that likely beyond a possible limited skirmish at the very most anymore.
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Jan 24, 2013 19:14
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Wibbleman posted:Except those comments were for Australian's as he said he was directly warning them, and wanted the comments to be passed on to Julia Gillard (the Aussie Prime Minister), which shows remarkable arrogance for a Colonel. I also assumed they were for domestic consumption until I double-checked; the trademark chest-thumping and absurd similes are certainly there. American officials say all kinds of things that don't go down well abroad, but at least we don't have communication problems practically built into our language.
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Jan 24, 2013 19:29
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A big flaming stink posted:I mean, you say that plutocrats know that wars are against their long term interest, but when do they ever act in favor of long term interest if a short term benefit is available? The Chinese have long memories and see the bigger picture. They see much further than we can. Chinese people aren't working for tomorrow or next year, but for future generations. [/Orientalist bullshit]. I love how people who know nothing about China still spout this when for every example of smart long-term planning in China there's at least as many (to be kind) of extreme myopia.
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Jan 24, 2013 19:50
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Fiendish_Ghoul posted:The Chinese have long memories and see the bigger picture. They see much further than we can. Chinese people aren't working for tomorrow or next year, but for future generations. [/Orientalist bullshit]. As someone who knows enough about China to admit I know nothing about China, I sometimes wonder if the whole Orientalist Exceptionalism thing is manufactured by western media or if the CCP deliberately tries to cultivate this "Harmonious Zhongguo" image. That being said, I remember learning in a class on Solar Power that even though China is one of the leading producers of solar panels, any long term benefits they have from producing them is offset by the fact that they dump all the toxic runoff from making the panels in the countryside, basically blighting the earth in huge deposits of mercury, chromium, cadmium, chlorine compounds, and other harmful chemicals.
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Jan 24, 2013 20:21
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21175466 Could the DPRK be China's proxy to try and provoke the US/Japan?
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Jan 24, 2013 23:42
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McDowell posted:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21175466
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Jan 25, 2013 01:41
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That might have been the case under Kim Jong Il but things could be different under his son (since we know next to nil about their relations with the military power structure), and China might want some plausible deniability. 'Guys we're tired of their poo poo, too. But what can we do about it?' It would make sense (if slightly Tom Clancy-ish*) for North Korea to finally go past that line and start fighting the South, US, and Japan. At that point China would probably get involved to try and advance their Pacific interests. *like Islamic terrorists flying jets into the WTC - truth can be stranger than fiction.
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Jan 25, 2013 02:06
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None of that makes much sense at all. The North Korean leadership seems quite happy with the status quo which lets them maintain their highly militarized fiefdom and China sure as hell isn't going to go to war with the US and destroy their own economy for North Korea. What the gently caress are they supposed to gain out of that?
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Jan 25, 2013 02:35
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The economic writing is on the wall and they think the US is a paper tiger. Is this their thinking? Stay tuned  China gains a greater sphere of influence in the Pacific, in the fracas Russia does whatever it wants to do with Syria; there are a lot of players and interests in the air. Also like I said, they are using North Korea to provoke the US/Japan/South Korea into making the first clearly aggressive move. They don't want to strike first, either.
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Jan 25, 2013 02:40
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McDowell posted:Also like I said, they are using North Korea to provoke the US/Japan/South Korea into making the first clearly aggressive move. They don't want to strike first, either. I think this is wrong. The Korea situation continues on the way it is because everyone is happier with the status quo than with the alternative. China doesn't want a zillion refugees streaming across its borders, the U.S. doesn't want to have to deal with sheparding a Korean unification, and South Korea frankly doesn't have the economic resources to reconstruct the North. The reunification of Germany caused something like a 25% drag on West German GDP for a decade. SK is a much smaller economy looking at a much higher wealth gap. China doesn't want a war with the American security bloc because it would get buried. Period end. The Japanese Defence Forces could sink the whole PLAN the second it left port, without American help. The Chinese leadership is aware of this fact. China's 2 million man army would not be very useful on a continent with no Americans to kill. On top of that, the PLA has a serious corruption problem and an officer corps that, according to a recent high-level PLA general's jeremiad, may no longer be competent to wage war. The Chinese air force is a joke anywhere outside of China's SAM coverage. This Pacific War scenario with China is fantasy. The Chinese would get massacred and they know it. The whole scenario is predicated on a Chinese leadership gone insane and a woeful misunderstanding of China in general.
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Jan 25, 2013 03:07
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Spiderfist Island posted:As someone who knows enough about China to admit I know nothing about China, I sometimes wonder if the whole Orientalist Exceptionalism thing is manufactured by western media or if the CCP deliberately tries to cultivate this "Harmonious Zhongguo" image. There is a neutral word for it, its call "soft power". You can read up on China's Africa dealing to see China's approach.
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Jan 25, 2013 03:17
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Like I said I'm just armchair Tom Clancy speculating, and if I'm wrong I'm wrong  - but it seems unlikely the status quo will be in place 100 years from now.
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Jan 25, 2013 03:18
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The Hong Kong Subcommittee of the Guangdong CPPCC has an answer to the city's distaste for things mainland: "Y'all just jelly." It's pretty disgusting stuff. SCMP posted:Hong Kong members of Guangdong's provincial advisory body were slammed as ignorant and unfit for their jobs yesterday after they were seen on television saying Hongkongers were ungrateful to the Communist Party and jealous of wealthy mainlanders. Hong Kongers in the mainland government really are the worst. And the latest news is that they now include Stephen Chow. He just became the worst.
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Jan 25, 2013 03:52
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It's too bad about Stephen Chow's personal life and personality, because his movies are really good.
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Jan 25, 2013 04:13
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McDowell posted:it seems unlikely the status quo will be in place 100 years from now. Now there's a bold argument!
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Jan 25, 2013 06:26
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If I recall correctly, North Korea's third nuclear test was originally scheduled for last summer but was cancelled under Chinese pressure: " NYT June 2012 link posted:Most surprising, though, is how Mr. Kim has thumbed his nose at China, whose economic largess keeps the government afloat. For example, shortly after Mr. Kim took over, a Chinese vice minister of foreign affairs, Fu Ying, visited Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital, and sternly warned him not to proceed with a ballistic missile test. The new leader went ahead anyway. Eventually, the furor over an impending test faded away and it seemed like China had successfully persuaded North Korea not to conduct the test (despite publicly downplaying their influence). I don't think China has the DPRK on a leash by any means, but they certainly have far greater leverage over the regime than any other nation. Pro-PRC Laowai posted:The PLA has it's fingers in enough high-level business interests that actual war is not really a very lucrative venture. Much more money in peace. Of course, they have to rattle some sabers now and again to justify their existence and remain an actual potent threat. But actual war? Ffff, honestly not all that likely beyond a possible limited skirmish at the very most anymore. I'm less worried about the PLA/CCP deliberately pursuing war and more concerned with the possibility of a 'limited skirmish' escalating into something more. With the Chinese population whipped into an angry nationalistic fervor, the Party would have to be the clear victor of any conflict. Nobody thinks Beijing will deliberately launch a full-scale war over a couple of stupid rocks, but mutual antagonism and distrust make it really easy for something small to spiral out of control.
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Jan 25, 2013 06:34
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Bloodnose posted:The Hong Kong Subcommittee of the Guangdong CPPCC has an answer to the city's distaste for things mainland: "Y'all just jelly." What a bunch of cunts.  Some of people are trying too hard for brownie points. Yes, people in Hong Kong can be pretty drat racist, but last thing we need is some reactionary garbage to fuel the flames of cultural tensionSuntory BOSS posted:I'm less worried about the PLA/CCP deliberately pursuing war and more concerned with the possibility of a 'limited skirmish' escalating into something more. With the Chinese population whipped into an angry nationalistic fervor, the Party would have to be the clear victor of any conflict. Nobody thinks Beijing will deliberately launch a full-scale war over a couple of stupid rocks, but mutual antagonism and distrust make it really easy for something small to spiral out of control. They won't. They rather brutalize the local population with riot control than have the masses dictate foreign policy and shady International Relations. In Shenzhen, some police planted plain clothes police to direct the riot from trashing a Jusco Japanese department store to protesting in a government office. The last wave of riots did enough economic damage as is. Maybe the clean up or construction sector got a boost in business. caberham fucked around with this message at 06:56 on Jan 25, 2013 |
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Jan 25, 2013 06:51
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Bloodnose posted:The Hong Kong Subcommittee of the Guangdong CPPCC has an answer to the city's distaste for things mainland: "Y'all just jelly." Considering some of the venom and prejudice Hong Kongers exhibit towards Mainlanders I can understand where the sentiment comes from.
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Jan 25, 2013 08:04
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McDowell posted:Like I said I'm just armchair Tom Clancy speculating, and if I'm wrong I'm wrong (you're wrong)
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Jan 25, 2013 10:38
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GlassEye-Boy posted:Considering some of the venom and prejudice Hong Kongers exhibit towards Mainlanders I can understand where the sentiment comes from. The guy immigrated to Hong Kong in 1979. He's a Hong Konger. A Hong Konger who is apparently a True Believer in the Party so much that he'll rage against his adopted homeland. And as someone who lives in Hong Kong, can't buy infant formula for his newborn son because the stores are all sold out, gets clipped in the train every morning by mainlanders with huge carts of said formula going back to the border, and has personally seen mainlanders and their kids pissing/making GBS threads in the streets/mall/train station so many times I'm no longer surprised by it, there is a reason the "venom and prejudice" exists. It's hard not to pre-judge mainland tourists when so many of them act as if they're God's gift to Hong Kong.
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Jan 25, 2013 11:43
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Arglebargle III posted:On top of that, the PLA has a serious corruption problem and an officer corps that, according to a recent high-level PLA general's jeremiad, may no longer be competent to wage war. If anyone could expand on this?
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Jan 25, 2013 12:06
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Just saw an incredible stat in the New York Times. The article's pretty long and worth reading. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/25/business/as-graduates-rise-in-china-office-jobs-fail-to-keep-up.html?_r=0 quote:GUANGZHOU, China — This city of 15 million on the Pearl River is the hub of a manufacturing region where factories make everything from T-shirts and shoes to auto parts, tablet computers and solar panels. Many factories are desperate for workers, despite offering double-digit annual pay increases and improved benefits.
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Jan 25, 2013 13:57
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Warcabbit posted:If anyone could expand on this? You'll have to be satisfied with the second-hand version because I've had to restart my computer three times trying to go near that article. I'm having a plugin problem with my browser. So, basically: a high-level PLA general wrote an editorial warning that corruption is spiraling out of control in the PLA officer corps. Buying and selling promotions has become de rigeur. High ranks can accumulate huge amounts of graft (presumably through the PLA's massive SOE holdings) and carry a concomitant price tag. A generalship goes for a ludicrous sum. High level PLA officers live a lifestyle that is totally out of whack with the concept of a public servant. The actual business of giving orders is rapidly falling by the wayside as the officer corps is degenerating into a massive graft-fueled get-rich-quick scheme. Patronage networks, also fueled by corruption, are growing totally outside the institutional boundaries and threatening the chain of command. He also warns that there's a rift growing between the officers and the enlisted men over this problem. The average soldier is losing respect for their officers, and its not hard to see why when the officers don't actually do any officing and live comfortable lives on the back of barely-concealed corruption. He points out that if a shooting war broke out in the next few years, both the officers' competency to lead and the soldiers' willingness to follow orders may be in question. If know this sounds extreme, but I think I'm communicating the tone of the editorial. He makes it sound pretty dire. Think about how bad the U.S. defence industry is about cheating the taxpayers and colluding with government officials and paying off corrupt generals. Now imagine that the defense contractors and the officials are the same people and you will begin to grasp the horrendous conflict of interest that is deforming the Chinese military. It doesn't help that the Chinese central government has less control of the PLA than they would like, although the head of state is theoretically the Commander in Chief through a somewhat bizarre policy of perpetual sinecure between the two technically separate positions. I found this online but again, after restarting 3 times I'm done trying to get the URL for now. I'll post a link later.
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Jan 25, 2013 14:20
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Charlz Guybon posted:Just saw an incredible stat in the New York Times. The factory jobs are far away in the suburb in between ShenZhen and GuangZhou. If you live inGZ, you don't want to move away from it. Its like moving from NY to middle of Pennsylvania.
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Jan 25, 2013 14:31
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Imperialist Dog posted:The guy immigrated to Hong Kong in 1979. He's a Hong Konger. A Hong Konger who is apparently a True Believer in the Party so much that he'll rage against his adopted homeland. So? Change the law if you dont want to see kids poo poo on the street. These mainlanders also bring in alot of tourist dollars. How can the tourist city so hateful on the people who bring in the business. Most of the HK posters I read on the internet still sound like spoileed brats to be honest with you.
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Jan 25, 2013 14:43
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whatever7 posted:So? Change the law if you dont want to see kids poo poo on the street. These mainlanders also bring in alot of tourist dollars. How can the tourist city so hateful on the people who bring in the business. Pretty sure HK has all the first world "don't poo poo in the streets laws" you'd like. Hell, Beijing and Shanghai probably do too... That don't stop 'em none though.
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Jan 25, 2013 15:18
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whatever7 posted:So? Change the law if you dont want to see kids poo poo on the street. You know, when resorting to the law is the only way to stop people making GBS threads on the street, then something is hosed up.
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Jan 25, 2013 15:49
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I don't see that it's any worse the the Ugly American deal in 20th century Europe. We surely were Ugly Americans and being told so probably helped curb behavior over time. If we were anything like the Cathay flights full of mainland Aunties that I run into, we completely deserved it. "Sit down on the loving plane during takeoff and landing" is not something to dick around with. I don't want Auntie #1 slamming into the back of my head and cracking it open when we emergency brake just because she wants to shout something to Auntie #2 and check her loving carry on luggage for the 20th time since boarding. Individual confrontation isn't good, probably, but the broad social criticism is educational. On that note, it's happening in all countries, not just HK, Taiwan and Singapore, though here there are statistically more things to complain about when it comes to many of the other visiting nationalities. I just had the annual Ministry of Labor visit and the plastic sign in English outside says in big letters, "Please dress appropriately. Do not wear sandals and shorts in this office." I certainly don't resent Thais complaining about us broadly because we deserve it.
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Jan 25, 2013 16:09
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Imperialist Dog posted:And as someone who lives in Hong Kong, can't buy infant formula for his newborn son because the stores are all sold out, gets clipped in the train every morning by mainlanders with huge carts of said formula going back to the border, and has personally seen mainlanders and their kids pissing/making GBS threads in the streets/mall/train station so many times I'm no longer surprised by it, there is a reason the "venom and prejudice" exists. It's hard not to pre-judge mainland tourists when so many of them act as if they're God's gift to Hong Kong. Aside from the yelling and line cutting my favorite mainlander tourist behavior is speaking Chinese to clearly non-Chinese people (in a country where English is by far the predominant language) and expecting to be understood. They're not unlike American tourists in that respect, actually - they even do the whole thing where they yell louder if they weren't understood the first time. Soy Division fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Jan 25, 2013 |
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Jan 25, 2013 16:12
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Gail Wynand posted:I've seen a lot of these attitudes toward mainlanders in Singapore too, although street making GBS threads seems to be less of an issue there for some reason. Are you serious about the "for some reason" or being facetious? It's because they beat your rear end with a stick if they catch you. Gail Wynand posted:Aside from the yelling and line cutting my favorite mainlander tourist behavior is speaking Chinese to clearly non-Chinese people and expecting to be understood. They're not unlike American tourists in that respect, actually. I love telling Chinese people how similar they are to Americans because they haaaate it. And in many respects it's true. We have big differences but we're both loud, gregarious, entitled cultures.
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Jan 25, 2013 16:17
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Arglebargle III posted:
Kinda been expecting this, but I didn't expect it to be public at all. China is, as I think I've said before, in for some real horrible times in the next 10 to 30 years, as they begin to learn about negative externalities. Pretty sure it's going to be worse than the old Soviet Union's raw pollution issues. The family-centric corruption/nepotism, the respect for the elderly not allowing young people to move up, the oversupply of young men, the upcoming birth defects a-go-go... Arglebargle III posted:I love telling Chinese people how similar they are to Americans because they haaaate it. And in many respects it's true. We have big differences but we're both loud, gregarious, entitled cultures. We totally are. Warcabbit fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Jan 25, 2013 |
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Jan 25, 2013 16:17
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Arglebargle III posted:Are you serious about the "for some reason" or being facetious? It's because they beat your rear end with a stick if they catch you. Soy Division fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Jan 25, 2013 |
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Jan 25, 2013 16:19
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whatever7 posted:So? Change the law if you dont want to see kids poo poo on the street. These mainlanders also bring in alot of tourist dollars. How can the tourist city so hateful on the people who bring in the business. You talk as if tourism is the only industry here? HK has a huge financial services industry and is a major shipping port. Just because one group happens to spend a lot of money doesn't mean they're liked if they act like scum. What if the French were famous for visiting Rome and defacing every monument they could get their hands on? "Oh, but they bring in the tourist dollars!" No other "tourist" group has a tendency  to buy up local supplies so mothers can't feed their children http://i.imgur.com/RNtUhAYl.jpg to poo poo on the street https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nUkiaDS3g4 insult HKers for not speaking Mandarin and call them dogs  and have so much money to throw around that shops will refuse to sell to HKers because they can profit more from selling to mainlanders. And then, when HKers dare to complain, they get called spoiled brats for not being grateful to China's mighty dollars. Don't get me wrong; my students confide in me about how worried they are about mainlanders changing HK for the worse and I always tell them that you have to judge people individually, not as a group. For every mainlander peeing in the metro who makes the news/forums, there are five who went to the washroom properly (I am pulling these stats out of my rear end). But the sheer numbers of mainlanders coming to HK mean that the overall frequency of such events gets larger all the time. Hell, this evening I went to Starbucks to get some coffee (marking papers) and the tourists in front of me snapped at the barista for not instantly understanding her Mandarin. Multiply all this stuff by a few million, which is the number of mainlanders visiting HK every year, and I hope you can see why there is discontent and a backlash. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 25, 2013 16:39
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Really didn't need to see that. Telling us about it is good enough.
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Jan 25, 2013 16:44
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Imperialist Dog posted:You talk as if tourism is the only industry here? HK has a huge financial services industry and is a major shipping port. Just because one group happens to spend a lot of money doesn't mean they're liked if they act like scum. What if the French were famous for visiting Rome and defacing every monument they could get their hands on? "Oh, but they bring in the tourist dollars!" You mean the _british_, don't you? http://www.britishmuseum.org/explore/highlights/articles/w/what_are_the_elgin_marbles.aspx
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Jan 25, 2013 17:03
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The coming Chinese Century is really going to be annoying, isn't it?
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Jan 25, 2013 17:19
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The thing that confuses me about the milk... Chinese (mainland) businesspeople are clearly losing out. Their product is viewed as inferior and as such they are selling less and less of it. A Chinese businessperson should start a firm that offers high quality formula and advertise based on this. Chinese people could pay a premium for formula sold in the mainland and still save money vis a vis going all the way to Hong Kong. Chinese in places like Shandong probably have similar concerns about food quality but are stuck because they don't live in border areas. In short there is an opportunity for profit, and Chinese are usually pretty good about seizing such opportunities. Why hasn't this happened?
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Jan 25, 2013 18:08
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hitension posted:The thing that confuses me about the milk... Trust in a brand name is very difficult to acquire and you need a lot of time to build it up. Once a particular sector has a really bad reputation, it's very tough to shake it. I imagine you can launch a premium brand and charge tons of money, but people still won't believe you're more trustworthy than other foreign brands,
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Jan 25, 2013 18:26
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