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Joementum posted:From that article: Trans-Am still revving, undeterred quote:If she does it, it’s hard to see how the nomination won’t be hers for the asking. It's like our pundit class has learned absolutely noth oh
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Feb 2, 2013 01:06
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/clinton-could-win-texas-in-2016.html Hillary is leading Christie and Rubio in Texas for 2016... I can't imagine that this would hold up once she gets down in the muck of day to day politics but it's very telling...
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Feb 4, 2013 20:48
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mcmagic posted:http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/clinton-could-win-texas-in-2016.html  (Polls this early are just about name recognition, nothing else)
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Feb 4, 2013 21:35
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Standish posted:
Christie, Rubio and Hillary are all much more well known now than Obama was in 2006...
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Feb 4, 2013 22:03
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mcmagic posted:Christie, Rubio and Hillary are all much more well known now than Obama was in 2006... I think the lesson of 2008 should be that if we're talking about who's got the nomination locked up four years in advance, we're probably not as smart as we think we are. Even if she runs, it's not like she's got a proven record of competently running a national campaign. But Hillary has huge name recognition, way beyond what Rubio and Christie have now - remember that name recognition isn't just among people engaged with the day-to-day political stories. Most people have probably never heard of Rubio, and Christie only in connection with Sandy.
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Feb 4, 2013 22:34
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Clinton's campaign wasn't poorly run. It's strategy was the wrong strategy, and it's methods were antiquated, but the actual running of the machine was well oiled and efficient good old fashioned politics. It was just, for lack of a better metaphor, like a Maginot line, which was a good idea at the time and could have worked but the strategy was all wrong because they didn't think their enemy would come from another direction. Doesn't mean the people running the line were incompetent.
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Feb 4, 2013 22:40
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greatn posted:Clinton's campaign wasn't poorly run. It's strategy was the wrong strategy, and it's methods were antiquated, but the actual running of the machine was well oiled and efficient good old fashioned politics. It was just, for lack of a better metaphor, like a Maginot line, which was a good idea at the time and could have worked but the strategy was all wrong because they didn't think their enemy would come from another direction. Doesn't mean the people running the line were incompetent. Aside from the well-documented crippling infighting, I don't think you can call "literally not knowing how delegates were apportioned" competent by any stretch of the imagination.
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Feb 4, 2013 22:46
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mcmagic posted:http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/clinton-could-win-texas-in-2016.html If I'm remembering 2008 correctly, she was polling pretty well here in TX but Obama got the lead on her due to the mixed format of the Texas primary where his ground game gave him a needed boost.
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Feb 4, 2013 22:47
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Uhhh...quote:It is hard to imagine the presidential field without a woman contender, and here’s one to keep your eye on: Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano. Napolitano is quietly making it known that she is considering the race, and there is reason to take her seriously. Yeah, good luck with that, Janet.
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Feb 4, 2013 23:41
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I wonder if that was placed by Napolitano or someone trying to puff up the weak shortlist of women if Hillary doesn't run.
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Feb 4, 2013 23:51
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Except that Kirsten Gillibrand and Amy Klobuchar exist. eta: QUICK, EVERYONE TO THE TEA LEAVES! Joementum fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Feb 5, 2013 |
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Feb 4, 2013 23:56
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I forgot about Gillibrand. Am I missing something about Klobuchar? Senator from Minnesota doesn't seem like a particularly good place to run from other than being next to Iowa.
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Feb 5, 2013 00:06
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UltimoDragonQuest posted:Am I missing something about Klobuchar? Senator from Minnesota doesn't seem like a particularly good place to run from other than being next to Iowa. Klobuchar is popular with the progressive activist base, which is not to say that she's a shoe-in for nomination or anything, but she at least has a base of support that she could use to source volunteers and fundraising. Napolitano has no natural constituency in the party she can draw on for support.
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Feb 5, 2013 00:14
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Joementum posted:Klobuchar is popular with the progressive activist base, which is not to say that she's a shoe-in for nomination or anything, but she at least has a base of support that she could use to source volunteers and fundraising. Napolitano has no natural constituency in the party she can draw on for support. She also is fairly moderate, which has lead to high popularity in Minnesota (she was what, +20 in her re elect?), and doesn't have a ton of controversial stances to get hit with, so she can play the bipartisan appeal card. I doubt she could hold a campaign together, though - it's rumored (and from reliable people) that she has staff retention issues as is, so I would have concerns about that during a presidential cycle.
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Feb 5, 2013 00:32
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Joementum posted:Except that Kirsten Gillibrand and Amy Klobuchar exist. I would bet lots of cash that if Hillary doesn't run one of those 2 will be on the ticket, at least as a VP.
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Feb 5, 2013 02:06
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Kalman posted:She also is fairly moderate, which has lead to high popularity in Minnesota (she was what, +20 in her re elect?), and doesn't have a ton of controversial stances to get hit with, so she can play the bipartisan appeal card. It's also worth pointing out that she'd be fantastic in Iowa because of how good she is with retail politics, and she's actually really funny, too. Here's a joke she told some dinner in 2009. quote:John Edwards' talk of "two Americas," she said, "turned out to be the best pickup line of all time."
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Feb 5, 2013 02:06
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Doctor Candiru posted:I've heard about her problems with her staff a number of times, going back to when she was a county attorney, and apparently she can be really overly demanding in what she expects from them. A good campaign manager and staff could fix that, though. Her astoundingly high approval rating and re-election margin both have to drive her to at least raise the possibility of running in 2016 with party higher-ups. If she were able to win the nomination, she could potentially win nationally -- although, even as a Minnesotan and a fan of hers politically, there are, like, ten nationally viable Democrats I'd support before her. She's almost too unoffensive...
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Feb 5, 2013 02:08
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Caught Corey Booker on Bill Maher. I really enjoyed his demeanor, how I wish more politicians acted. I could not see him running against someone like Hilary though, not even VP material. Which got me thinking, if Hilary did get the nomination, who do you think her VP would be?
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Feb 5, 2013 05:20
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Orange Pilot posted:Caught Corey Booker on Bill Maher. I really enjoyed his demeanor, how I wish more politicians acted. I could not see him running against someone like Hilary though, not even VP material. Dunno, O'Malley? Schweitzer? Cuomo?
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Feb 5, 2013 05:34
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:Dunno, O'Malley? Schweitzer? Cuomo? Bill  E: he's not eligible constitutionally but what about a position in her cabinet?
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Feb 5, 2013 05:38
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Butt Soup Barnes posted:Bill Screw that, I want him on the Supreme Court, so even if a Republican got elected President down the road they'd still have to deal with a Clinton in Washington.
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Feb 5, 2013 05:42
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monoceros4 posted:Screw that, I want him on the Supreme Court, so even if a Republican got elected President down the road they'd still have to deal with a Clinton in Washington.
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Feb 5, 2013 05:44
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I just want someone replaced by Goodwin Liu on the Supreme Court, because gently caress the Senate.
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Feb 5, 2013 05:51
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The Warszawa posted:I just want someone replaced by Goodwin Liu on the Supreme Court, because gently caress the Senate. Replace Scalia with Goodwin Liu, Thomas with (by that time former president) Obama. SCOTUS Justice Obama would have opinions everyone would want to read because you know that poo poo would be fine-rear end literature. Opens with a description of the case, slices out the actual question before the court, then makes 10 pages of heart-lifting speech material before wrapping up with his rationale and dissent/concurrence. It would almost make you forgive the decision being something awful like domestic armed drone use not violating posse comitatus because the exercise of force embodied in the drone is not a deployed soldier on the ground.
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Feb 5, 2013 08:42
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Joementum posted:Uhhh... Yeah, because when I think charisma and stage presence, I think Janet Napolitano...
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Feb 5, 2013 09:58
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Hillary closed her 2008 Presidential campaign committee and transferred the funds to another committee that she used when running for Senate. What could this all mean?!?!
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Feb 5, 2013 13:37
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Orange Pilot posted:Caught Corey Booker on Bill Maher. I really enjoyed his demeanor, how I wish more politicians acted. I could not see him running against someone like Hilary though, not even VP material. Someone Hispanic if she wants to pander jussst right.
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Feb 5, 2013 13:41
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Paul Ryan may have learned that politics is more fun when you don't have to worry about elections.quote:His friends tell us the most obvious route — a run for the White House in 2016 — holds less appeal to him with each passing day. “He has no interest in the sheer grind of campaigning,” said a conservative who recently spent time with Ryan. “It’s hard to see him having ‘what it takes'.” Much easier just to lean back in your sinecure and get invited on the TeeVee to talk about how serious your plans are.
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Feb 5, 2013 14:03
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Oh great, another 30-50 years of this rear end in a top hat. Just swell.
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Feb 5, 2013 14:13
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Can't see Ryan holding out over the long term after the novelty of a Republican willing to openly commit to a Randian budget allocation wears off, he'll stick around congress until he lands the right golden parachute or loses his seat in Hillary's landslide.
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Feb 5, 2013 14:36
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Joementum posted:Paul Ryan may have learned that politics is more fun when you don't have to worry about elections. Or maybe he realizes that people hate him and his ideas.
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Feb 5, 2013 15:25
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Marco Rubio is going to drink beer and do an interview with Ben Smith starting soonish.
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Feb 6, 2013 01:29
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ufarn posted:Oh great, another 30-50 years of this rear end in a top hat. Just swell. I doubt it. It's possible im underestimating his ability as a campaigner but I have real doubts of him ever be viable on the national stage. Combined with his ludicrous reputation as the smart guy in the room I'd put money on him banking a few million dollars running some policy institute/think tank in five years or so.
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Feb 6, 2013 02:26
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R.A. Dickey posted:I doubt it. It's possible im underestimating his ability as a campaigner but I have real doubts of him ever be viable on the national stage. Combined with his ludicrous reputation as the smart guy in the room I'd put money on him banking a few million dollars running some policy institute/think tank in five years or so. It usually takes about 15-20 years in Congress before one gets on the track to become House Speaker. He ain't gonna stick around that long.
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Feb 6, 2013 02:35
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Joementum posted:Marco Rubio is going to drink beer and do an interview with Ben Smith starting soonish. Rubio is so loving slick. He does worry me in the future...
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Feb 6, 2013 16:08
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Rubio got the kiss of death: he'll be delivering the GOP response for the State of the Union address. He will deliver the response in both Spanish and English. This worked wonders in the past for Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, Bob McDonnell, and (of course) Bobby Jindal.
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Feb 6, 2013 21:50
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Delivering the SOTU response is the political equivalent of winning the Best New Artist Grammy.
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Feb 6, 2013 22:07
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Joementum posted:Rubio got the kiss of death: he'll be delivering the GOP response for the State of the Union address. He will deliver the response in both Spanish and English. I really, really want to be a fly on the wall for the whole "Rubio does bilingual stuff" discussions, because who's for it and against it is completely up in the air. On the one hand, Rubio is, for all his many failings, said to refuse to run away from his identity but on the other, any handler worth his salary is probably saying "How much do we want this guy to come off as SUPER LATINO?" while the GOP leadership sees both an opportunity to try to pander to Latinos and a possible problem by scaring all those Good White People in the Heartland.
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Feb 6, 2013 22:11
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The Warszawa posted:I really, really want to be a fly on the wall for the whole "Rubio does bilingual stuff" discussions, because who's for it and against it is completely up in the air. On the one hand, Rubio is, for all his many failings, said to refuse to run away from his identity but on the other, any handler worth his salary is probably saying "How much do we want this guy to come off as SUPER LATINO?" while the GOP leadership sees both an opportunity to try to pander to Latinos and a possible problem by scaring all those Good White People in the Heartland. It's not as bad as it sounds. The Democrats started doing two different responses - one in English and a second in Spanish for the Spanish language stations - during the Bush 43 administration; there was even one year when Bill Richardson did both of them. The Republicans have continued this practice, and Rubio will do both the primary response and the separate secondary one for the Spanish speaking audience.
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Feb 6, 2013 22:15
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Joementum posted:Rubio got the kiss of death: he'll be delivering the GOP response for the State of the Union address. He will deliver the response in both Spanish and English. Rubio is on a different level from those guys in speaking skills and ability to look reasonable while pushing batshit policies.
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Feb 6, 2013 22:29
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