Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
ozza
Oct 23, 2008

In my experience, a lot of the propagation of Nihonjinron thinking comes from everyday laziness, rather than being a well thought-out world view. What I mean by that is people just hear stuff like "Japanese body temperature is two degrees lower than Westerners'" at some point when they're young, and then just never really think about it again. It's usually not some closely held belief, it's just something people have taken for granted for a long time. And of course being surrounded mostly by other Japanese means the views are not often challenged.

The Japanese being descended from a different line of primates is a new one on me, though. I have read that same thing in Chinese theories on 'race' origin.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Rabite
Apr 13, 2002

Dynamiet Rab

Mercury_Storm posted:

Does the whole "wow you're a foreigner, you must fly back to America every day!" from children have anything to do with this too? Or is that another separate dumb issue?
Kids are either stupid, genuinely interested or the next 芸能人 sensation and they must be put on TV immediately!

Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe

Kenishi posted:

Amusingly enough though it never gained any of that by running around conquering people, it was just an economic super power and a hub for trading, for centuries.
This isn't the China thread, so I shouldn't get into it, but China gained a huge chunk if not a majority of its territory through conquest and colonization.


Does Japan do acupuncture and traditional Chinese medicine the way Korea and China do? I wonder if Nihonjinron could mesh with some kind of insistence on a special kind of medicine suited to the unique snowflake that is Japanese anatomy.

I am OK
Mar 9, 2009

LAWL

Bloodnose posted:

I imagine there must be some kind of liberal, internationalist political movement in Japan that wants the country to open up, allow more immigration and generally stop being so isolationist, xenophobic and mercantilist.

Right? :ohdear:

Pretty much every Japanese person who speaks English who I've spoken to is super depressed about Japan's xenophobia so perhaps?

Protocol 5
Sep 23, 2004

"I can't wait until cancer inevitably chokes the life out of Curt Schilling."
It's way outside the scope of this thread, so I'll just suffice to say that yeah, there's a shitload of Chinese traditional medicine practiced in Japan. Acupuncture, massage, herbal remedies, kinesthesiology, you name it. Since it's largely unlicensed and not covered by KKH, the government pretty much looks the other way unless someone starts importing controlled substances, parts of endangered species, or is dispensing stuff that is egregiously toxic. As far as homegrown psuedomystical health mumbo-jumbo goes, look no further than the many "medicinal" hot spring baths. While they do have some therapeutic value in that they are relaxing, as well as some mineral springs containing substances that are efficacious for certain skin conditions, many springs will claim to be able to alleviate circulatory disease, liver disease, gastrointestinal conditions, neuralgia, rheumatoid arthritis, and so forth. Since the government only regulates labeling based on water quality (eg; must have a certain amount of sulfurous compounds to call it a sulfuric spring etc.) and do not regulate therapeutic claims, owners can give the illusion that their claims are backed up by the government. It's similar in many ways to the "organic" labeling in countries that do not regulate use of the term with stringent guidelines.

Sheep
Jul 24, 2003
Acupuncture is actually a really common profession for disabled people here - I had a blind student who wound up getting her acupuncture license and is now practicing in Tokyo.

RocknRollaAyatollah
Nov 26, 2008

Lipstick Apathy

Bloodnose posted:

This isn't the China thread, so I shouldn't get into it, but China gained a huge chunk if not a majority of its territory through conquest and colonization.

Seconding this. Pretty much every nation in Asia has expanded its borders throughout history through conquest and colonization.

A great deal of Asia suffers from, "Well my parent, grandparent said this so it has to be true!" The whole [this Asian country's people] are a unique race or species of being unlike the rest of the world mindset is nothing new. Chinese and Korean people will go on about this just as much as Japanese people. I think the only difference is that Japanese people apply a whole phrenology angle to it in order to get legitimacy. I don't have much experience with the Korean angle but I'm sure there's a lot of pseudo science backing it up. The Chinese one is always a bit weak but almost always relates to hot water and TCM.

Adrastus posted:

Do you average Japanese people actually believe in that kind of thing, or is it just a few nationalist blowhard?

This kinda reminds me of the time when I was in China, people there were really up in arms about alleged history revisionism going on in Korea, that Koreans are writing in their school textbooks that ancient Korea was some sort of superpower that dwarfed China. No idea if it was true though!



It's funny because China does the same thing to Korea. I've wondered if the Korean map was a response to the map below and the official study it comes from.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Project_of_the_Chinese_Academy_of_Social_Sciences

Gorguryeo, the Korean kingdom that ruled northern Korea, were allies with Wei for a bit. Chinese government funded historians have recently spun this into Gorguryeo being a part of Wei, and therefore China. Notice where the border is and the political implications that could come if North Korea's regime would collapse. This is especially bad considering China's new love of throwing around maps as proof of ownership and as a possible casus belli for war. I'm sure if Wa did more than have contact with Wei, a big chunk of Japan would be on that map under Wei's territory.

From what I've seen the past time of right wing nationalist Japanese ancient history historians seems to be claiming that certain Asian historical figures were actually Japanese. Other than that, right wing Japanese historians usually seem focused on rewriting the history of the Meiji, Taisho, and early Showa periods to depict Japan more favorably as a liberating force, there to uplift Asia and save them from the evils of European colonialism. :barf:

Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe
Wa had contact with the other two of Korea's three kingdoms, Silla and another one that I forgot, and used it as justification for the annexation.

Asian people care too much about ancient history. If we applied the same principles elsewhere, we'd end up owing a lot of land to Italy. Or Greece. :gonk: Or Saudi Arabia. :gonk: Or Iran. Oh it just keeps getting worse.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

Bloodnose posted:

But that link in itself is kind of an interesting topic. It says these returnee kids were originally seen as like polluted by foreignness and in need of help, but now they're elites at the forefront of globalization. From what I've learned about Japan from SA, I actually find the former less surprising than the latter.

I am OK posted:

Pretty much every Japanese person who speaks English who I've spoken to is super depressed about Japan's xenophobia so perhaps?

There's also sexism in the equation!

I know a handful of Japanese women who studied abroad or were climbing the corporate ladder enjoyed working overseas. If you mention returning to Japan after gaining valuable overseas experience you will see them :rolleyes: immediately. A lot of them dread the lowered glass ceiling, the expected gender roles, and rather just stay overseas. So women rather stay abroad and the returnee kids who become the globalized elites tend to be men. Women do return, but they a lot more social backing, chutzpah, and financial security to make their mark.

It was a bit amusing to me that Japanese ladies were disappointed when they first arrived in Hong Kong. They were very eager to learn Cantonese and thought everyone would expect them to speak Cantonese. Turns out, nope - it's either English/Japanese in the workplace. Which in turns make them feel really isolated because they are not as motivated to learn the local language.

I find it really disappointed when lifers are still treated as outsiders when the lifers can speak fluent Japanese and lived in Japan for ages :smith: There was a meet and greet yatai in Fukuoka and I met this Chinese guy who left Shanghai when he was 12 and can barely remember Mandarin. When I asked about his hometown and he revealed China it was awkward for everyone else and we started to chat in bits of Mandarin. The crowd just assumed he was Japanese but when his heritage was discovered a few girls were all surprised going "eeeeeeeeeeeee" (Okay...) And then his friends started exclaiming "OMG I thought you were Japanese, I guess I will start calling you Chinese now" :xd:

I felt really really guilty "outing him" like that. I tried to dismiss the ridiculous attachment of national identity but deep down everyone can see the future possibility of the locals treating him "like an outsider". :smith:

If I knew anyone who tried to mingle with my culture I would be really happy and try to make them fit in FEEL WELCOME.

caberham fucked around with this message at 10:32 on Mar 12, 2013

Weatherman
Jul 30, 2003

WARBLEKLONK
The only thing I have to offer to this conversation is that the 子女 in 帰国子女 is a contraction of 男子女子.

Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe

caberham posted:


If I knew anyone who tried to mingle with my culture I would be really happy and try to make them fit in.

Make them fit in? So now you're trying to destroy my cultural identity, you imperialist?!!!!?


For all the talk of Japanese not accepting foreigners, it's probably an exchange that would serve them better. Give and take. Learn a bit from the hairy barbarians at the same time as accepting them as part of the local community.

Isn't that what all you JETs and ALTs are supposed to be doing anyway?

Kenishi
Nov 18, 2010

Bloodnose posted:

Isn't that what all you JETs and ALTs are supposed to be doing anyway?
On paper maybe. Many people are also trying to make ALTs into real teachers too (see Elementary level stuff, lawl). On the cultural side of things, we're there to 'diversify' things. We're there so people can actually see a foreigner in person instead of on TV. That way when they go to Tokyo or Kyoto on vacation they don't go all :wth: when they see a foreigner for the first time. Of course when it looks like we're going to come up and talk to them they still go :stonk: in their head.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

Bloodnose posted:

Make them fit in? So now you're trying to destroy my cultural identity, you imperialist?!!!!?

Hey now, you are the one who refused an all expense paid trip to Israel! And I made sure that goonmeet had no pork products, talk about respecting your money loving religion!

Come now, nowadays we celebrate a culture of cheetos, mountain dew, videogames, and table top RPGs. But you would never fit in even if you get permanent residency because you are not using your linguistic talents to learn Cantonese. Making me speak English, who's the imperialist now? :colbert:

Ned
May 23, 2002

by Hand Knit

caberham posted:

I felt really really guilty "outing him" like that. I tried to dismiss the ridiculous attachment of national identity but deep down everyone can see the future possibility of the locals treating him "like an outsider". :smith:

If I knew anyone who tried to mingle with my culture I would be really happy and try to make them fit in.

Everyone who knows that dude knows he is Chinese but has lived in Japan since he was young. He's a bit like me in the sense when I tell people I am from Australia they expect me to be able to have in-depth conversations about life in Australia but since I left when I was young my memories are about being a child and have a hard time relating to people who have lived there recently. So I get into these awkward situations where I tell people from Australia and they reply by telling me how much they love Australia and really want to go back there and then I have to say I haven't been there in 24 years and watch the conversation die.

I wouldn't worry about him too much though. He's friends with all sorts of folks and his social life benefits from the fact he is Chinese who moved to Japan at a young age. People might be a little surprised to learn he is Chinese but I don't think he gets treated badly in any way.

Pompous Rhombus
Mar 11, 2007

caberham posted:

The crowd just assumed he was Japanese but when his heritage was discovered a few girls were all surprised going "eeeeeeeeeeeee" (Okay...) And then his friends started exclaiming "OMG I thought you were Japanese, I guess I will start calling you Chinese now" :xd:

I felt really really guilty "outing him" like that. I tried to dismiss the ridiculous attachment of national identity but deep down everyone can see the future possibility of the locals treating him "like an outsider". :smith:

This is going to be pretty old hat for people who know even a medium amount about Japanese culture, but when I was studying in Beijing, a bunch of Japanese university students came over and joined my Mandarin class over their spring break. There was one girl who was part of the group and Korean... I was talking with her after class one day and asked her what she wanted to do after she graduated. She said she wanted to become a Japanese teacher abroad, and I was kinda suprised, and asked her why not teach Korean. Of course, I find out she'd been born and raised in Japan, but her friends still called her "the Korean" (not in an outwardly hateful way or anything, but she was just "the Korean member of the group") despite her not speaking a word of it and I'm not sure she'd even ever been to SK.

Bloodnose posted:

Make them fit in? So now you're trying to destroy my cultural identity, you imperialist?!!!!?


For all the talk of Japanese not accepting foreigners, it's probably an exchange that would serve them better. Give and take. Learn a bit from the hairy barbarians at the same time as accepting them as part of the local community.

Isn't that what all you JETs and ALTs are supposed to be doing anyway?

Every now and then I see an "a-ha" lightbulb go on over a Japanese person's head when I'm explaining something, and that's always a nice feeling. But it's certainly the exception rather than the norm... I don't think my co-teachers learn a lot from me aside from bits of English or cultural trivia. Students are a bit more open-minded, but my particular teaching situation isn't for the most part filled with the intellectually curious.

What I really think would make a bigger difference than importing foreigners (who mostly go home after a few years) piecemeal would be universities with English as a Foreign Language teaching programs requiring students to pass the TOEFL/IELTS/whatever and do at least a semester, preferably a year of study at an education department overseas (with some sort of a teaching intermship/practicum included). Not that it necessarily hinders their ability to prepare students for university entrance exams, but I'm always really surprised when I meet English teachers who have never even left Japan, let alone lived abroad.

BoE's also ought to encourage (or at least not penalize) English teachers who want to spend a year or two overseas on professional development as well, either as an exchange teacher or doing a Master's or something. One of my co-workers (non-tenure) is leaving her job to do a working holiday in Canada to bootstrap her English ability, which I think is really admirable and awesome, but it'd be great to see some institutional support for that kind of thing.

Kenishi
Nov 18, 2010

Pompous Rhombus posted:

What I really think would make a bigger difference than importing foreigners (who mostly go home after a few years) piecemeal would be universities with English as a Foreign Language teaching programs requiring students to pass the TOEFL/IELTS/whatever and do at least a semester, preferably a year of study at an education department overseas (with some sort of a teaching intermship/practicum included). Not that it necessarily hinders their ability to prepare students for university entrance exams, but I'm always really surprised when I meet English teachers who have never even left Japan, let alone lived abroad.

BoE's also ought to encourage (or at least not penalize) English teachers who want to spend a year or two overseas on professional development as well, either as an exchange teacher or doing a Master's or something. One of my co-workers (non-tenure) is leaving her job to do a working holiday in Canada to bootstrap her English ability, which I think is really admirable and awesome, but it'd be great to see some institutional support for that kind of thing.
They're turning out teachers with decent skills but you could throw semi-fluent English teachers at the problem and it still wouldn't solve the major handicaps. If you want English to be the secondary language of the land and spoken by 50% of the population here in 50 years, then you need to do 2 things.

1) Make reading and writing part of the curriculum from 1st grade and get actual teachers in there with ESL teaching certs. Stop treating it as an after thought for kids during a time when they can pick it up best.

2) Force English into the rest of the curriculum. They're in science and learning the parts of a flower in Japanese? Put the English words next to it. They'ye in social studies class learning about cities in Japan and around the world? Put English next it and have it be tested as well. Include grade relevant English sentences in sections in the book. Stuff like "Did you know? ..." Doesn't have to be required but it puts the English in front of them. The other teachers don't need to know how to speak English necessarily but the added vocabulary and exposure throughout all their classes will bring English out of a class and into something they see every day and in every class. This. Is. The. Only. Way. You are going to make English a strong second language of Japan.

Simply doing #1 would probably bring leaps and bounds.

( 3) As a bonus thing to do. Fix the way evaluations are done at schools. At least in my area, schools know in advance when BoE officials will be making a visit and teachers have time to prepare a class. Every freaking teacher, regardless of what subject they teach, does some bizarro style class that never gets done in a day to day situation. So the BoE and head MEXT officials are only ever evaluating and giving feedback on a style of lesson that gets given when guests are visiting. )

Kenishi
Nov 18, 2010
Dragging the women chat back out cause I missed this 'great' article the other day.

Japan Women Near Bottom of the Barrel

quote:

Japan has one of the lowest scores in the Asia-Pacific region in terms of socioeconomic opportunities for women, according to MasterCard’s latest Index of Women’s Advancement released Wednesday.

Japan was second-lowest on the index, which measures the socioeconomic standing of women in 14 Asia-Pacific economies. New Zealand topped the index with an overall score of 77.8, followed by Australia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, China, Thailand, Indonesia, Myanmar, South Korea, Japan and India.

Japan scored 48.1 and China 61.5.

Japan had relatively high scores of 83.1 in terms of employment and 94.5 in terms of education for women, but had the worst score in terms of leadership positions for women in the public and private sectors, at just 14.2.

The scores show the ratio of women to every 100 men. A score under 100 indicates gender inequality in favor of men.

In contrast, China scored 83.8 for employment, 100 for education and 27.8 for leadership positions.

Ganguro King
Jul 26, 2007

Pompous Rhombus posted:

BoE's also ought to encourage (or at least not penalize) English teachers who want to spend a year or two overseas on professional development as well, either as an exchange teacher or doing a Master's or something. One of my co-workers (non-tenure) is leaving her job to do a working holiday in Canada to bootstrap her English ability, which I think is really admirable and awesome, but it'd be great to see some institutional support for that kind of thing.

I know junior high school English teachers who have been sent by MEXT to England (for 3 moths) and Texas (for 6 months) for professional development, so institutional support isn't totally absent. It's apparently only 20 or 30 teachers a year who get selected though.

Deceitful Penguin
Feb 16, 2011

Pompous Rhombus posted:

BoE's also ought to encourage (or at least not penalize) English teachers who want to spend a year or two overseas on professional development as well, either as an exchange teacher or doing a Master's or something. One of my co-workers (non-tenure) is leaving her job to do a working holiday in Canada to bootstrap her English ability, which I think is really admirable and awesome, but it'd be great to see some institutional support for that kind of thing.
We get a pair of teachers every year here that are finishing their studies into teaching but they don't talk that much English, I think. Dunno if they're studying it on the side or what though.

ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro

Pompous Rhombus posted:

I was talking with my co-workers Saturday night and they were wondering why I didn't want to live in Japan beyond my next contract year (through August of next year). Obviously that could have been a huge can of worms, so I just asked them how many hours they worked, compared it to what I'd be working in a Western country (for an equivalent if not better standard of living), and was like "yeah I like Japan, but not that much".

That's really just the tip of the iceburg for why I wouldn't live here, but it's the least offensive for them to accept.
You're running out of Asian countries, Pompous.

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich
So I just watched this ~50 minute talk by Kyle Bass, the hedge fund guru who bet heavily on the mortgage crisis in 2007, and he has determined that without a shadow of a doubt Japan is hosed. It's an interesting watch if economics is your fancy.

Bass puts an ~18-24 month time-frame before the country collapses. He doesn't seem to be hedging or demurring at all on the subject, either: it is a mathematical certainty in his eyes. One of the questioner asks him what he would do if he was Prime Minster and he says point blank "I'd quit" and he wasn't being cute.

http://media.chicagobooth.edu/mediasite/Viewer/?peid=f15d95d054e8442ab0cc1c60321383101d

Anyone with knowledge of Japanese monetary policy want to weigh in?

Pompous Rhombus
Mar 11, 2007

ReindeerF posted:

You're running out of Asian countries, Pompous.

This one's gonna be my last, barring maybe going back to teach at an international school for a year or two at some point in my mid-30's. (Although I'd probably be more likely to go with Thailand over Japan in that case, assuming I got job offers that were equivalent in each country). Far from committed to the idea though, would depend on a lot of factors I have no way of knowing for quite a while.

Arkane posted:

So I just watched this ~50 minute talk by Kyle Bass, the hedge fund guru who bet heavily on the mortgage crisis in 2007

That sounds interesting, looking forward to watching this when I get home. (Don't expect any insightful analysis from me though.)

Butt Wizard
Nov 3, 2005

It was a pornography store. I was buying pornography.

Arkane posted:

http://media.chicagobooth.edu/mediasite/Viewer/?peid=f15d95d054e8442ab0cc1c60321383101d

Anyone with knowledge of Japanese monetary policy want to weigh in?

Japan is basically in the worst position you can be in - zero domestic growth, low productivity gains and with a large amount of foreign investment in Europe and America. It's basically been stagnant for about five years and now the Yen is both high and volatile at a time when the US and Euro are basically willfully devaluing. The BOJ can make its own moves, but it's not going t outmaneuver the Fed. Abenomics is just one last attempt to ignore the fact the future of the economy is basically entirely out of their hands.

Kenishi
Nov 18, 2010

Arkane posted:

Bass puts an ~18-24 month time-frame before the country collapses. He doesn't seem to be hedging or demurring at all on the subject, either: it is a mathematical certainty in his eyes. One of the questioner asks him what he would do if he was Prime Minster and he says point blank "I'd quit" and he wasn't being cute.

http://media.chicagobooth.edu/mediasite/Viewer/?peid=f15d95d054e8442ab0cc1c60321383101d

Anyone with knowledge of Japanese monetary policy want to weigh in?

I haven't seen it yet, I'll have to wait till I'm at home. This is interesting though considering that a major part of 'abenomics' is that the BoJ is going to buy up bonds and put lots of money into construction and building.

If it turns out exactly like he thinks it will (18-24 months), that'll be pretty amusing seeing as the economy here in Japan will have just gotten back to moving again and is crashing again. The same thing happened in 2008 as well. They were starting to turn positive GDP growth and consumer confidence was coming back up and then the yen got strong and it fell back down again.

Sheep
Jul 24, 2003
How much can you keep building random stuff nobody needs though? We're practically out of rivers and streams to pave at this point, and it's sure gonna look like poo poo in a couple of decades when there's no money to pay for upkeep on all the junk they're building.

It'd be a solid plan if the population were increasing, but it's not. And as has been pointed out before, a huge percentage (like 20% or so?) of residences in the country are empty. Even private sector construction is going to have to slow down soon. The only thing they have going for them is that homes don't hold value at all and people would rather knock down an old structure and build a new house instead of moving into an old one, but that's hardly enough construction to support their current - or planned - habits.

Get on Philip Brasor's blog if you want to learn more about construction and housing in Japan, it's a really good resource.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Japan's debt is pretty stable due to it being owned to domestic pension funds/savings (such as the Post-Office), it is extremely high as a percentage of GDP but also very tightly controlled. However, I doubt inflation is going to be a serious issue for Japan, if anything continued deflation will be the issue.

The talk had some decent points about the challenges Japan faces (especially its reduced population growth) but I think the key split is how Japan will ultimately collapse, a public debt explosion (as the talk seems to indicate) or the much more likely scenario of Japan graying into oblivion. Japan borrows from its population which is happy to lend them the money in exchange for security, as long as they continue to this high deficits and large debt ratios won't be a issue because it is many ways a cultural cycle (the Japanese Post Office is a bedrock savings institution).

The issue is that more and more Japanese people are dying than being born ready to continue funding the system, ultimately the issue may be the government will very slowly be surely cramped for revenue however there may be enough to keep them limping on for years.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 06:52 on Mar 14, 2013

ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro
The most interesting aspect of Bass's presentation to me, and he graciously excuses himself from much extrapolation, is the social fabric aspect of the debate. Yeah, of course Japan's going to fail. He says Japan's us in 20 years in broader economic terms and maybe that's true, but in terms of manufacturing we're Japan in 20 years with a twist. They've hollowed out their big players too, but, even worse, there's no value left and they're a xenophobic monoculture with a low birthrate. You can't stop making everything AND stop having kids all at once while also carrying on a massive modern welfare state the likes of which modern, developed countries do and expect some magical outcome.

He's completely right to laugh in the face of typically Asian inferences about cultural magic. What worries me is what happens next. North Korea's going bonkers, China's cooling a bit, Japan's close to collapse, Hong Kong's in the middle of a massive bubble, South Korea is a bit of a question mark in security terms and China's pissing off much of Southeast Asia, which is, otherwise, the actual growth driver in Asia for the near future (Cambodia, Burma, Laos, Indonesia, etc). If you look into the different relationships between North/East Asian powers and Southeast Asian countries and evaluate it in terms of nationalism among the idiotically nationalist triumvirate of China, Korea and Japan it is worrisome to imagine what could happen if the cold Asian countries devolve into their historical pattern of blaming, and then fighting one another over every moronic slight (i.e. like Europe pre-WW II).

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

ReindeerF posted:

The most interesting aspect of Bass's presentation to me, and he graciously excuses himself from much extrapolation, is the social fabric aspect of the debate. Yeah, of course Japan's going to fail. He says Japan's us in 20 years in broader economic terms and maybe that's true, but in terms of manufacturing we're Japan in 20 years with a twist. They've hollowed out their big players too, but, even worse, there's no value left and they're a xenophobic monoculture with a low birthrate. You can't stop making everything AND stop having kids all at once while also carrying on a massive modern welfare state the likes of which modern, developed countries do and expect some magical outcome.

He's completely right to laugh in the face of typically Asian inferences about cultural magic. What worries me is what happens next. North Korea's going bonkers, China's cooling a bit, Japan's close to collapse, Hong Kong's in the middle of a massive bubble, South Korea is a bit of a question mark in security terms and China's pissing off much of Southeast Asia, which is, otherwise, the actual growth driver in Asia for the near future (Cambodia, Burma, Laos, Indonesia, etc). If you look into the different relationships between North/East Asian powers and Southeast Asian countries and evaluate it in terms of nationalism among the idiotically nationalist triumvirate of China, Korea and Japan it is worrisome to imagine what could happen if the cold Asian countries devolve into their historical pattern of blaming, and then fighting one another over every moronic slight (i.e. like Europe pre-WW II).

I think there are growing problems across eastern Asia at the moment (not the only region to have them to be sure) but I think some elements are less chaotic than they seem. North Korea seems "bonkers" but in reality they are playing the same game they had for decades. Remember how but speculation there was about the Choenan incident? In regards to Japan they have serious problems, but I think 24 months to collapse is hyperbole since they still have the cultural support behind their declining system. Will Japan fail eventually? In a demographic sense they already are, but that is a movement that takes decades to finally work itself out.

Mainland China (and a lesser extent HK's problems) a more troublesome and harder to predict especially since it is unclear exactly what assets are on which books at the moment. A real estate collapse in China and greatly reduced growth would be very serious.

ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro

Ardennes posted:

I think there are growing problems across eastern Asia at the moment (not the only region to have them to be sure) but I think some elements are less chaotic than they seem. North Korea seems "bonkers" but in reality they are playing the same game they had for decades. Remember how but speculation there was about the Choenan incident? In regards to Japan they have serious problems, but I think 24 months to collapse is hyperbole since they still have the cultural support behind their declining system. Will Japan fail eventually? In a demographic sense they already are, but that is a movement that takes decades to finally work itself out.

Mainland China (and a lesser extent HK's problems) a more troublesome and harder to predict especially since it is unclear exactly what assets are on which books at the moment. A real estate collapse in China and greatly reduced growth would be very serious.
Let's just assume that all of that's true. The primary issue is the precariousness of all of that region at the same time. Maybe Japan's magical on its own and maybe DPRK is just acting like your wacky neighbor and maybe China's got what it takes to keep the ship of state on course - what if one of those things isn't true in a situation where all of them are teetering a bit? That's the concern to me.

Kenishi
Nov 18, 2010

Sheep posted:

How much can you keep building random stuff nobody needs though? We're practically out of rivers and streams to pave at this point, and it's sure gonna look like poo poo in a couple of decades when there's no money to pay for upkeep on all the junk they're building.

It'd be a solid plan if the population were increasing, but it's not. And as has been pointed out before, a huge percentage (like 20% or so?) of residences in the country are empty. Even private sector construction is going to have to slow down soon. The only thing they have going for them is that homes don't hold value at all and people would rather knock down an old structure and build a new house instead of moving into an old one, but that's hardly enough construction to support their current - or planned - habits.

Get on Philip Brasor's blog if you want to learn more about construction and housing in Japan, it's a really good resource.

The biggest question I've always had about the 30% number (I'm pretty sure its not 20) is whether these are simply older resident places or what. If you get on Suumo or AtHome and look at places, there are tons of places built in the 70s and I find it hard to believe that anyone is really renting these places up. Maybe students and older people are, but they look fairly run down.

The biggest thing I want to know about building housing in Japan is the regulation behind it. I haven't seen anything very in depth in recent years about it. Debito wrote a blog post about the process of buying land and building his own house, back in the 90's I believe. But that was Debito and it was a while ago.


ReindeerF posted:

What worries me is what happens next.
At least in Japan, they are looking for the next bubble that they can prop up and try and infuse some hollow growth into the country. I feel like construction is some of this, and I think they'd really see some big gains if they were smart about Miyagi/Tohoku. That whole area is a clean slate to potentially do all sorts of new things, but they haven't done ANYTHING. Two years later and the place still hasn't seen that much in the way of rebuilding, which I think is indicative of the illness in their political system that they can't be bothered to move quickly when its needed most. They've spent the money on other sorts of ridiculous stuff not even closely related.

I think defense may be the second bubble/industry to try and prop up. This war drum beating from the LDP/Abe and saber rattling between China/Japan will provide a backdrop through which to win the public over to building up the army; as well as changing the wording of Article 9. I think people need to really keep an eye on this very strongly because with the recent results (read: success) of the gas extraction (Expectations run high on methane hydrate) expect this to become extremely heated. Consider that the reserves they are extracting from off the coast of Aichi are expected to provide enough gas to match the gas requirements for all of Japan for the past decade. The reserves under Senkaku are suppose to be larger I believe.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

ReindeerF posted:

Let's just assume that all of that's true. The primary issue is the precariousness of all of that region at the same time. Maybe Japan's magical on its own and maybe DPRK is just acting like your wacky neighbor and maybe China's got what it takes to keep the ship of state on course - what if one of those things isn't true in a situation where all of them are teetering a bit? That's the concern to me.

I think there will be economic damage and saber-rattling but ultimately all of the regional economies are so intertwined (even NK in its own way) at the moment negates real violence. Ultimately, I think the most likely scenario is that something is going to go seriously wrong in China and thats going to cause a region wide fiscal crisis. North Korea will stay being North Korea, while Japan will head back into even deeper negative growth.

However, their economies are so inter-dependent that during a crisis it will be too ultimately too risky to risk an actual war (if thats to be assumed). I think might be some xenophobic riots and plenty of talk, but at the end of the day everyone wants to continue making money.

Kenishi
Nov 18, 2010
I also forgot to add in my post that we also shouldn't forget that if Japan gets the Tokyo 2020 bid, you can expect the spending to be ridiculous; it always is with summer Olympic bids.

ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro

Kenishi posted:

which I think is indicative of the illness in their political system that they can't be bothered to move quickly when its needed most.
I think this is an illness felt throughout the developed world, but that's outside the scope of this thread.

I am OK
Mar 9, 2009

LAWL
Thought y'all might be interested in this BBC article written by a Japanese woman about the state of current history education in JPN:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21226068

Plastic Chin Fairy
Feb 22, 2013
Man, I live in Japan and don't pay attention to any of this stuff.

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug

I am OK posted:

Thought y'all might be interested in this BBC article written by a Japanese woman about the state of current history education in JPN:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21226068
That's the best article I have read yet on that subject. Also it reminds me of something my history prof said way back, that its possible to get a PhD in history from a Japanese university without ever really acknowledging what Japan did in WW2. That's a pretty bad indictment of Japanese scholarship as a whole, I think.

Plastic Chin Fairy posted:

Man, I live in Japan and don't pay attention to any of this stuff.
People mostly just talk about it on the internet (2ch.net) due to the utter gutlessness of the people spouting those opinions, and even if there were many people with the guts to say it in real life I doubt they'd say it to a foreigner.

Samurai Sanders fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Mar 14, 2013

Kenishi
Nov 18, 2010
This is pretty hilarious.

Japan's Energy board Meets after Dropping Anti-Nuke Members

Bloomberg posted:

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has removed most anti-nuclear researchers from a revamped post-Fukushima energy policy advisory board to the government that resumes discussions today.

After a landslide victory in a December election, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said the previous administration’s policy to abandon atomic power needs to be reviewed to help revive the world’s third-biggest economy.

Six of eight members that voted for phasing out nuclear power on the board advising the previous government have been dropped from the LDP panel. Another ten members were reappointed, including Akio Mimura, an adviser for Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp. (5401), as chairman. He headed an energy advisory board under a previous LDP government that promoted nuclear power.

Wish they would just say gently caress it and start all the plants up next month.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


image text goes here

Kenishi posted:

This is pretty hilarious.

Japan's Energy board Meets after Dropping Anti-Nuke Members


Wish they would just say gently caress it and start all the plants up next month.

Or, use the trillion dollars Abe wants to spend on paving rivers to build some modern, safe reactors.

Kenishi
Nov 18, 2010
Now a bit on the TPP.

Japan may open stuff!

Bloomberg posted:

Japan will fight to maintain tariffs on rice, sugar and dairy products, said Shinichi Shogenji
[snip]
“Japan may be able to protect about 5 percent of its total goods in the TPP talks,” Shogenji said in an interview on March 12. “Rice is the national staple, sugar is vital to Okinawa prefecture milk is what our kids drink.
[snip]
Japan imposes tariffs of 778 percent on rice imports, 328 percent on sugar and 218 percent on powdered milk.
:v:

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

NewtGoongrich
Jan 21, 2012
I am a shit stain on the face of humanity, I have no compassion, only hatred, bile and lust.

PROUD SHIT STAIN
"Rice is the national staple" seems like a great reason not to impose a 778% tariff on rice imports.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply