|
I don't even care about whether I would save money from not buying gas over the long-term. I already chose to buy a sporty semi-luxury car that gets mediocre gas mileage when there were far more efficient options available. Every time electric cars get brought up the anti crowd always uses that argument, and yet take one look around on the road and you'll see that MOST people don't buy the most efficient cars on the market, not even close. People complain about gas prices, but at the end of the day most people aren't willing to sacrifice the luxuries, sportiness, comfort, or size for a few more MPG. I literally do not care if I ever break even on gas savings vs. electricity cost. By all reports the Tesla Model S is one of the best cars on the road today in everything from sporting performance (dat flat torque curve) to technological gizmos and comfortable luxuries. That's what is so great about it - you don't have to sacrifice all the things you expect in a modern car like you have historically had to do to drive an electric car. Quite the opposite, in fact. And for us urban folks, a 200+ mile range is more than adequate for very nearly all of our driving.
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 21:08
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 10:54 |
|
|
MrBigglesworth posted:I want an electric car. My commute round trip is only 30 miles. If it costs $1.12 to recharge daily to make that 30 mile gap Id happily own one if the price was right. Tesla Model S has a 85kWh battery with a 265 mile range. If you are lucky enough to have cheap electricity at ~10 cents per kWh then it costs ~$8.50 to charge the thing in electricity costs. That is roughly $0.032/mile. Lets say that they somehow bring the cost of the thing down to $45,000. Now lets look at an alternative. Buy a Jetta TDI Clean Diesel for ~$20,000 which gets 42mpg. Assume $3.50 a gallon (where diesel currently is around me, equating to 0.10/kWh electricity price). This equates to $0.083/mile. Lets assume we put 100,000 miles on it over 10 years: TDI: 100,000 * .083 = $8,333 fuel cost. This makes sense because if I go 100,000 miles, I will need approximately 2380 gallons at $3.50/gallon. EV: 100,000 * .032 = $3,200 fuel cost. This makes sense because if I go 100,000 miles, I will need to charge up approximately 377 times at $8.50 a charge. Now if the EV costs $25,000 more than the Golf TDI, can you really justify a $5,000 difference in fuel costs over the life off the car? If the electricity was free from solar panels on your roof could you justify it? Don't even get me started with discounting the initial capital investment of the Tesla. You don't spend nearly as much as you think you do at a gas station compared to the lump sums you are paying on cars to squeeze out paltry MPG. quote:I don't even care about whether I would save money from not buying gas over the long-term. I already chose to buy a sporty semi-luxury car that gets mediocre gas mileage when there were far more efficient options available. Every time electric cars get brought up the anti crowd always uses that argument, and yet take one look around on the road and you'll see that MOST people don't buy the most efficient cars on the market, not even close. People complain about gas prices, but at the end of the day most people aren't willing to sacrifice the luxuries, sportiness, comfort, or size for a few more MPG. I literally do not care if I ever break even on gas savings vs. electricity cost. Cheesemaster200 fucked around with this message at 21:35 on May 10, 2013 |
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 21:32
|
|
|
Cheesemaster200 posted:Tesla Model S has a 85kWh battery with a 265 mile range. If you are lucky enough to have cheap electricity at ~10 cents per kWh then it costs ~$8.50 to charge the thing in electricity costs. That is roughly $0.032/mile. Lets say that they somehow bring the cost of the thing down to $45,000.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 21:50
|
|
|
I don't think it's fair to say that the demand for the Tesla is not as strong as it is for a normal car because you see 100-1 toyotas and camrys.. that have been around for loving ever whereas Tesla and other electrics not so much. Yes, it's a new technology and it will take time to adopt and for the infrastructure and such. But it's way too early to dismiss it as a gimmick. quote:Likewise, if I have to travel for work, have a long commute, or otherwise like the freedom of taking road trips, what do you think my interest in an electric car will be? What if I like/have to drive a truck like so many people? Just because you "want to take a long road trip" does not mean the company will not be successful long term, especially in the automotive industry.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 21:51
|
|
|
Arkane posted:eta: Elon said in an interview last year that SpaceX has been profitable since 2008 Elon has proven multiple times that his accounting is creative at best.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 21:52
|
|
|
Also, for whoever said they were a buyout candidate.. well I don't know much about Elon but from what little I do I don't think he's the type to sell.. not while this pet project/compancy was just starting to get going. Maybe in ten years if things progressed well and the company was self-sufficient, he'd step out to focus on spaceX or some other thing he's working on, idk. Just my unqualified opinion.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 21:53
|
|
|
TUBALLINATOR posted:Why do you compare with a car that's few classes below, and has a weaker engine - 140HP vs 367HP? Why don't you compare it to an Audi A7 with a V8 engine which has the comparable price/luxury level? Because we are dealing with a layman's car, not the Tesla S. If Tesla is going to compete in the market of "not just for flashy rich people" it will need to compete with economy mileage cars such as the TDI. The HP will be lower and it might have better range, but who cares? Even if electricity was free it couldn't realistically compete unless it cut the price down to like 1/5 of where it is now. That ain't happening, and if it does the margins will be horrendous making it a lovely investment anyway. If they brought the price down to $30k they might *MIGHT* be able to sell it well on the same model of the Prius and being an eco-douche, but I really don't see that happening. I would invest my money in whoever is working on natural gas cars and engines, because that has good economics behind it. Cheesemaster200 fucked around with this message at 22:00 on May 10, 2013 |
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 21:56
|
|
|
Sounds like Tesla is a really easy short then, Cheese? Free money, pretty much.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 22:05
|
|
|
Cheesemaster200 posted:Because we are dealing with a layman's car, not the Tesla S. If Tesla is going to compete in the market of "not just for flashy rich people" it will need to compete with economy mileage cars such as the TDI. We'll only know the energy expenditure figures of the cheaper car (and the price after all), once it enters the market which is expected I think in 2016. I don't see how you can base the energy expenditure numbers on the model S. And even with that car it's likely that Tesla will compete with the likes of BMW3/Audi A4 (I believe Musk said this himself) and not Jettas and Golfs. You are making a lot of assumptions that are based on nothing. Gmaz fucked around with this message at 22:09 on May 10, 2013 |
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 22:07
|
|
|
Why would anyone buy a Tesla S when you can buy a 1998 Honda Civic for like 80 times less money?????
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 22:27
|
|
|
DNova posted:Why would anyone buy a Tesla S when you can buy a 1998 Honda Civic for like 80 times less money????? Status and the target markets for the Tesla S and Civic are completely different. Not even in the same league.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 22:30
|
|
|
Cheesemaster200 posted:Because we are dealing with a layman's car, not the Tesla S. If Tesla is going to compete in the market of "not just for flashy rich people" it will need to compete with economy mileage cars such as the TDI. Like the $26k CNG civic which can only hold the equivalent of 8 gallons of gasoline because compressed gas takes up a shitload of space? CNG might have a few more stations than there are EV recharge spots but for home charging a fast charge station and a CNG compressor are basically the same. Tesla can make cash competing with Mercedes/Audi/BMW while economies of scale take effect on all of the little components that go into hybrids and EVs to lower prices. The interesting question is whether Tesla can build up a big enough battery and EV knowledge gap now to overcome their inexperience in high-volume automotive production. Once/if component prices drop far enough for PHEV/EVs to hit $20-30k and the big automakers start seriously incorporating more hybrid technology in their lines, Tesla will be really tested if they want to compete in that market segment. No matter what happens it will be interesting to watch.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 22:40
|
|
|
evilwaldo posted:Status and the target markets for the Tesla S and Civic are completely different. Not even in the same league.  It was a jab at cheezmaster.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 22:47
|
|
|
Does anyone have an idea why AFFY went apeshit this week? Volume shot up, and so did the stock value. I thought they were supposed to be dead in the water and I haven't seen any news explaining the surge.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 23:08
|
|
|
AGNC is killing me right now. How much should I be concerned about their big miss last week?
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2013 23:16
|
|
|
TUBALLINATOR posted:Then why are you comparing Model S numbers to that of the Jetta? Makes no sense at all. quote:Why would anyone buy a Tesla S when you can buy a 1998 Honda Civic for like 80 times less money????? Read the thread. I was responding to a post that said that Tesla was intending on moving down into the "not $90k luxury car market" and that was their future growth strategy. If that is your intention and your biggest competitive advantage is fuel economy, I would think comparing to the high MPG diesels is a pretty good idea. If we are talking about the $90k cars Tesla currently makes, then refer to my post above that which said that it is a limited luxury market. If you are spending that much money on an EV you are doing it for status, not fuel economy. quote:Sounds like Tesla is a really easy short then, Cheese? Free money, pretty much. Cheesemaster200 fucked around with this message at 00:47 on May 11, 2013 |
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 00:35
|
|
|
Cheesemaster200 posted:Read the thread. But we're not talking about the Tesla S. They're planning to release downmarket models in the longterm. The cost of the technology will scale favorably in the longterm. I'm not saying anything new that people haven't tried to tell you already in this thread. Basically, you're way off the mark on this one.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 00:43
|
|
|
Cheesemaster200 posted:Read the thread. Gmaz fucked around with this message at 00:52 on May 11, 2013 |
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 00:50
|
|
|
DNova posted:But we're not talking about the Tesla S. They're planning to release downmarket models in the longterm. The cost of the technology will scale favorably in the longterm. I'm not saying anything new that people haven't tried to tell you already in this thread. Basically, you're way off the mark on this one. Again, in the short term the Tesla S is limited to small luxury market which will eventually limit growth. In the long term they need to complete with every other manufacturer's high MPG car model and appeal to those people who actually care about cost, functionality, and fuel economy. Like the Volt and Leaf, I see this being more of a sideshow than an actual player in the auto market. quote:But you can't compare the model that may be in the market in 3 years and that we know nothing about to the MPG of anything. We can't even tell what the gas/energy prices will be in 3 years, let alone anything else. Obviously there's still great risk for Tesla, but I wouldn't write them off that easily. If anything I believe the technology and rising gas prices will play to their hand. In other words the Tesla S has an advantage now because the people buying it really don't care about fuel economy. It's like a Lamborghini or a Ferrari, a luxury good. They are going to have an extremely hard time to bring their products anywhere down to the level they can be massed produced. Cheesemaster200 fucked around with this message at 01:02 on May 11, 2013 |
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 00:53
|
|
|
Turkeybone posted:Also, for whoever said they were a buyout candidate.. well I don't know much about Elon but from what little I do I don't think he's the type to sell.. not while this pet project/compancy was just starting to get going. Maybe in ten years if things progressed well and the company was self-sufficient, he'd step out to focus on spaceX or some other thing he's working on, idk. Just my unqualified opinion. He sold paypal to ebay. I could see GOOG buying them.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 02:25
|
|
|
Both Brin and Page are investors in Tesla, and friends of Elon I think. And I doubt another car maker is going to buy Tesla considering that Daimler has a large stake (& a board member). Don't see a buyout as a possibility any time soon (with the caveat being that SpaceX is probably far more important on Elon's priorities list). Paypal is different with respect to the fact that these are the industries where he wants to be. Online payments is a far cry from Mars landings, solar powered grid, and electric cars (and whatever the hell the Hyperloop is). Arkane fucked around with this message at 03:13 on May 11, 2013 |
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 03:11
|
|
|
Arkane posted:Both Brin and Page are investors in Tesla, and friends of Elon I think. And I doubt another car maker is going to buy Tesla considering that Daimler has a large stake (& a board member). Musk's dream was for paypal to become what square is doing now rather than being stuck as a form of online payment. It was going to revolutionize the exchange of money and would've been at the center of it. But eBay took it in another direction. But to say online payment isn't in the same league as space travel and clean energy isn't a fair framing. It's just what it has become with eBay's direction.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 03:31
|
|
|
He is an engineer/scientist at heart was my point, and those 3 companies are in the business of creating a tangible, engineered product. Paypal (even Square) is mundane compared to the challenges that he is tackling right now.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 03:48
|
|
|
My STRZA shares are up 43% ytd. The hardest thing is knowing when to sell...Arkane posted:He is an engineer/scientist at heart was my point, and those 3 companies are in the business of creating a tangible, engineered product. A trustful exchange of currency was very important in the heyday of the internet. And musk's dream was for it to move beyond the digital stage into more. It's not a "mundane" thing at all. Or it has become mundane as trust in the exchange grows.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 14:44
|
|
|
Cheese....looking at your own numbers: 2012 Jetta TDI = $22,700 (looked it up on Edmunds) 20?? Tesla Econobox = $30-40k (projected range based on conversations) Lets assume we put 100,000 miles on it over 10 years: (most cars go more than 100k lately) ===current Cheese data=== TDI: 100,000 * .083 = $8,333 fuel cost. This makes sense because if I go 100,000 miles, I will need approximately 2380 gallons at $3.50/gallon. EV: 100,000 * .032 = $3,200 fuel cost. This makes sense because if I go 100,000 miles, I will need to charge up approximately 377 times at $8.50 a charge. ===theoretical projections based on realistic conditions=== TDI: 150,000 * .09 (rounded up for several years of inflation) = $13,500 EV: 150,000 * .04 (rounded up assuming for inflation) = $6,000 Assuming 25k miles per year...that means 6 years of car ownership $7,500 savings per year * 6 years = $45,000 saved on gas (more than the cost of the original EV) Now that could be stretched out to ten years or more and there are incidentals to consider but the difference is not as great as you projected in the original data, in fact it actually starts to favor the EV more. This is assuming there are no tax breaks for buying EV or anything else. If they can drop the initial costs of the vehicle it will significantly close the gap. Right now for many of the Prius/Honda Hybrid type models, the only premium is the hybrid components itself offsetting any gains from saving on MPG. If it were 100% electric the savings go up. Anyway you slice it...the EV is going to save money in the long run. Now what people have been trying to tell you is that as the tech improves (batteries, lighter materials, etc) it's only going to tip even more in the EVs favor. On top of that you have an electric engine that is going to have better performance than a diesel, the EV will probably have better fit/finish which was a major neg on the Edmunds review for the TDI (looked/felt cheap), and your major complaint about EV being range...the charging stations will continue to be built as time goes on so range will be less and less of an issue. The majority of buyers would either be people in major cities or within 1 charge's commuting range. This isn't something to market to rural areas where they are going to buy trucks anyway. The vast majority of population is urban/suburban now which only benefits EV. As air quality becomes more of an issue, again advantages goes to EV over gas. Is it a perfect scenario for Tesla? Of course not, there's still a lot that can go wrong. But the macro reasoning you're trying to use isn't supported by the current trends of what's going on.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 16:10
|
|
|
Oxphocker, I think your math is wrong. You save $7,500 total in 6 years, not that amount times 6. No normal person spends 7 grand a year on gas and drives 150,000 miles a year. Using your estimates, You save $1,250 per year on gas assuming you drive 25k miles a year. You would need 5.84 years to break even on the difference of a $30,000 Tesla, and 13.84 years to break even on the price difference with a $40,000 one. People are really irrational about gas prices. Foma fucked around with this message at 17:44 on May 11, 2013 |
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 17:33
|
|
|
Yeah, the fuel costs I put down were for 100k miles which was an assumed life of the car. However that is another good point. If you have to charge the thing every 265 miles you probably are not going to able to put more than 10k a year on it (if that). Whereas with a gasoline engine car that is much more likely. And again, if you really wanted to get into it you could discount all the costs to account for time value of money which would make the gap even higher. Also note that a $30k is dropping the cost to a third of what it is now. That is a long way to go...
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 18:09
|
|
|
What is the margin on the Model S without the tax credits?
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 18:15
|
|
|
Cheesemaster200 posted:Also note that a $30k is dropping the cost to a third of what it is now. That is a long way to go... If you are for real and not just trolling, you are so dense it's ridiculous.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 18:23
|
|
|
Foma posted:Oxphocker, I think your math is wrong. You save $7,500 total in 6 years, not that amount times 6. No normal person spends 7 grand a year on gas and drives 150,000 miles a year. whoops...that's what I get for doing math when I first woke up..anyway, even with the lower numbers my point still stands. Over the life of the car you do make up the difference and then some.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 18:43
|
|
|
There's also the question of the risk of owning an electric car. I mean the uncertainty of lifespan, breakdowns, maintenance (are maintenance costs more, less? Are electric engines more durable etc? These are things I have no clue on). What about batteries, wouldn't there be some way to have pre-charged interchangeable batteries like propane tanks at every convenience store? Or way way way down the line at the very least. Probably right now the batteries are really expensive and heavy and dangerous and not really plug and play. But, someday. Or what about when other companies just buy the technology or the engine system and then Tesla doesn't have to make money on cars but just on the drivetrain? I'm just spitballing here, but again I think it's way too early to dismiss the whole thing.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 18:57
|
|
|
Oxphocker posted:whoops...that's what I get for doing math when I first woke up..anyway, even with the lower numbers my point still stands. Over the life of the car you do make up the difference and then some.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 19:11
|
|
|
But he's still using the cost of Model S charge with a 85kwh engine which is around 400HP... The cheaper model will NOT have an 85kwh engine and will spend less energy. Try to do the calculation with a 40kwh or 30kwh engine, suddenly the energy cost is 1/2 of what it was.
Gmaz fucked around with this message at 19:25 on May 11, 2013 |
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 19:17
|
|
|
TUBALLINATOR posted:But he's still using the cost of Model S charge with a 85kwh engine which is around 400HP... The cheaper model will NOT have an 85kwh engine and will spend less energy. Try to do the calculation with a 40kwh or 30kwh engine, suddenly the energy cost is 1/2 of what it was. What is the cost of that engine compared to the stronger engine? The ex-tax credit question is a very good one.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 19:31
|
|
|
That's the point, we don't know what Gen3 car will have. We don't have any specs to it, but it makes no sense to compare it with Model S number and assume this car will spend the same amount of energy/have the same range etc.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 19:34
|
|
|
cremnob posted:What is the margin on the Model S without the tax credits? Well the tax credit that the purchaser gets is $7500 but most of the prices thrown around ($60k-$80k for the Model S) take that into account. Or does Tesla get tax credits for the manufacture as well? Speaking of credits, I wonder how much money Tesla's getting (or is projecting to get) from selling CAFE credits? Since plug in vehicles are still incredibly advantaged on this (half of the reason the big companies are making plug ins is to meet future CAFE standards) they'll probably be drowning in them as they expand. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 20:09 on May 11, 2013 |
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 19:56
|
|
|
Shear Modulus posted:Well the tax credit that the purchaser gets is $7500 but most of the prices thrown around ($60k-$80k for the Model S) take that into account. Or does Tesla get tax credits for the manufacture as well? The zero emission vehicle (ZEV) credit is what I was asking about. e: Basically how profitable is Tesla without them? cremnob fucked around with this message at 20:11 on May 11, 2013 |
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 20:09
|
|
|
cremnob posted:The zero emission vehicle (ZEV) credit is what I was asking about. Well from the 10-Q (since they were profitable for the first time this quarter): quote:During the first quarter of 2013, we recognized $67.9 million in ZEV sales, which contributed to our gross margin. ZEV credit revenue should decline in future quarters relative to our automotive sales as we grow our sales outside the United States and earn fewer credits on the 60 kWh Model S battery variant for those sales that occur in the United States. Other regulatory credit sales recognized during the first quarter of 2013 were $17.1 million. While we will pursue opportunities to monetize ZEV credits we earn from the sales of our vehicles, we do not plan to rely on these sales to be a significant contributor to gross margin, and our business model is not predicated on such ZEV credits. Also: quote:As a result, we expect to achieve gross margin in the high teens in the second quarter of 2013. This expectation includes the impact from lower zero emission vehicle (ZEV) credit sales, a lower average selling price due to a higher mix of 60 kWh Model S vehicles, as well as limited sales of the now discontinued 40 kWh vehicles, which will have a range-limited 60 kWh battery pack. We expect our gross margin to continue to rise to our target of 25% in the fourth quarter of 2013, which assumes no ZEV credit revenue. We may not be able to achieve the planned cost reductions from our various cost savings and process improvement initiatives, which would negatively affect our ability to reach our gross margin goals. The "automotive sales" for 1Q also lists $555M in revenue, and I think that number includes the ZEV credit sales, so that puts them at about $488-$490 ex-ZEV credit sales. Edit: Their gross profit in 1Q is listed as $96M. Edit 2: The net income line, listed lower down, is $11M, so that's a big difference if that number includes ZEV credits. I'm still learning how to read financial statements so I'm not sure which is more important. Edit 3: For the benefit of anyone in the audience who's unfamiliar with this, these aren't tax credits but regulatory credits that manufacturers can trade around to meet government mandates of how many ZEVs they have to make. It works similarly to the federal acid rain program or the often-proposed carbon cap-and-trade scheme. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 20:37 on May 11, 2013 |
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 20:23
|
|
|
Turkeybone posted:I mean the uncertainty of lifespan, breakdowns, maintenance (are maintenance costs more, less? Are electric engines more durable etc? These are things I have no clue on). What about batteries, wouldn't there be some way to have pre-charged interchangeable batteries like propane tanks at every convenience store? Or way way way down the line at the very least. Probably right now the batteries are really expensive and heavy and dangerous and not really plug and play. But, someday. Electric motors and drivetrains are orders of magnitude more simple than internal combustion engines. They have a tiny fraction of the number of moving parts, far fewer fluids, and are not inherently prone to dirtying themselves with carbon buildup over their lifetime. There is just soooo much less to worry about maintaining in an electric motor. Electric motors have been around for over a century and are very well proven and have never been the limiting factor for electric cars. The only real unknown is the battery longevity and possible replacement costs, however even that risk is somewhat assuaged by how unbelievably reliable and long-lived the batteries in cars like the Prius have been.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 21:31
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 10:54 |
|
|
Turkeybone posted:What about batteries, wouldn't there be some way to have pre-charged interchangeable batteries like propane tanks at every convenience store? Or way way way down the line at the very least. Probably right now the batteries are really expensive and heavy and dangerous and not really plug and play. But, someday. I've heard the battery is very quick/easy to take out on purpose, potentially for this very reason down the line. I also know that the advances they are making on batteries is rapid. Elon was talking about high-range batteries on a call recently and said 500-mile ranges are just around the corner (2-3 years). With a 500 mile range, you almost solve the limitation problem. That's a good 7 hours of non-stop driving, and then 15 minutes at a Supercharger station (or plug-in at home). Turkeybone posted:Or what about when other companies just buy the technology or the engine system and then Tesla doesn't have to make money on cars but just on the drivetrain? I'm just spitballing here, but again I think it's way too early to dismiss the whole thing. They do sell their drivetrains to their partners. They have exclusive agreements with Daimler and Toyota. That exclusivity ends this summer, and they could conceivably make contracts with every car manufacturer.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2013 22:56
|
|