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Blazing Zero posted:I'd love to see the unique number of people pledged vrs. the total. I'm also still shocked at the number of producer tier pledges. I get that WoWTCG did that good, but 10 grand worth of faith? I don't know, that's a major life decision for a lot of people. Oh well, more power to them and CZE. There was a thread on the forums about someone trying to decide whether to take a Producer or not, so take it with a huge grain of salt, but they were claiming to be a former baseball pro and were using some of their severance to pay for it.
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Jun 17, 2013 03:19
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Yeah, I doubt there was much of anyone pledging Producer for whom $10k is a major life decision. There are plenty of rich people in the world, and they only got 14 of them anyway.
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Jun 17, 2013 04:33
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Even if you imagine that everyone who pledged 120 dollar or more was in fact one crazy person with 6000 kickstarter accounts, that still only represents 1/3 of their backers. I think it's fair to say that the number of uniques is pretty close to the actual number.
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Jun 17, 2013 04:39
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I'd usually be pretty hesitant to re-post content from Reddit, but there isn't much else going on so have a video in which a dude processes a bunch of spreadsheet data to make some (admittedly) tenuous predictions about card valuation.
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Jun 17, 2013 06:16
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OBi, I saw that video and he makes some pretty wild speculation. He tried to slim down the variables but even then, there's still way too many for his numbers to come out of left field. There's no way that legendaries will approach anything close to his guess of 14.27 until the player base reaches at least half of current MTG/MTGO active players. Primal boosters being almost forty bucks? That price won't apply to Set 1 Primals, ever. Perhaps Set 3 if the game explodes in popularity and that's still a massive stretch. He's still riding the hype from the really good reception that the kickstarter had. I really feel like too many people are counting on this to be 'the next Magic'. I'll be ecstatic if this game reaches WoWTCG numbers before the new year. If it goes on to really 'kill MTG' in 2014 then  but lets be honest. People really like their cardboard collections. Digital can't entirely replace the physical experience of tournaments, booster opening, FNM, kitchen table Magic, etc. Not until we have holodecks anyways.
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Jun 17, 2013 09:24
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On the topic of price speculation, here's a thing I wrote weeks ago on the Hex forum speculating on the value of primal packs: Price is fairly easy to speculate on. If we take a game with a similar rarity distribution (Magic). We know that, in general, rares have a relatively low value. Packs cost $4 (MSRP), and the average rare is <$1-2 (from big sellers, much closer to <$1 when you buy from other players - eBay). Mythics range widely in individual price, but the average price from set to set is about $5-6 (again from big retailers, closer to $4 on eBay). The big take home is that, on average, you are better served by buying the specific singles you need than opening a pack. This is why packs only sell for about $2.5 from online retailers, and a little less from other players. On to Hex. We know that normal packs are 11 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 rare/legendary We don't know what the odds of rare vs. legendary are, but let's say that they use an MtG-like rarity distribution (in every 8 packs 1 there will be legendary). Now, we also don't know what a primal pack will be like, but let's assume that this distribution holds. That means that a primal pack will have, on average 1.875 legendarys. This means that we can expect a primal pack to have almost 2 legendary cards and 13 rares. This sounds really good, and indeed, it is far better than a normal pack. However, if there are, say 15 legendary cards in a given set, the odds are that only some are going to be desirable, and the prices will range significantly. In Magic, the low value mythics are $1.50 (retailers) and the big money ones are generally $40 or less with very few exceptions for in-print cards. Most money ones are more like $8-20 from (retailers). Rares are generally more stable. Good rares sell for $3-5 (retail) and very good rares can go as high as $10, with very few outliers going up to $30 for in print sets (you see maybe 1 of these a year). An average Magic Primal pack (if they existed) would be worth about $30. So, let's translate this to Hex. We can halve the prices (because Hex boosters are half the price of magic ones). This gives us an average price of a pack at $15. That's the equivalent of 7.5 boosters. Now, if you whiff on 2 legendaries and just get 1 that drops significantly. If you get 3 it goes up significantly. We have no idea what the distribution in a primal pack would be, but I think it's reasonable to extrapolate from the normal rate, and I think the rate used in Magic is a logical base in the absence of better information. So, will primal packs sell for whatever the value of 7.5 packs is? I doubt it, I think they'll be a little more expensive (maybe 9-10 packs) in value because they are inherently more exciting to open. It's important to remember that packs will likely sell for less than MSRP on the auction house (why go through the AH for $2 in plat when you could just pay CZ $2 and have a shot at a primal pack?). This means that primals won't be worth $18-20, but rather 9-10 times the value that normal packs sell for on the AH (I would guess between $1-1.50 with the first set being a bit depressed because of a flooded market. How rare will they be? I assume far more rare than their value would indicate. I would imagine something like 1:50-1:100, but that is pure guesswork.
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Jun 17, 2013 10:20
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I just hope that legendaries are few and in 150 packs you can expect to get everything you're going to want.
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Jun 17, 2013 14:54
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Blazing Zero posted:He's still riding the hype from the really good reception that the kickstarter had. I really feel like too many people are counting on this to be 'the next Magic'. I'll be ecstatic if this game reaches WoWTCG numbers before the new year. If it goes on to really 'kill MTG' in 2014 then My view is this: For me, Hex is competing with Magic Online and Duels of the Planeswalkers, not paper Magic. I will continue to go to FNM same as I always have, and I'll play Hex to get my TCG fix the rest of the week. No matter how fun Hex is, it can't replicate the feeling of slinging cardboard with a person present. However, I think the two can coexist.
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Jun 17, 2013 15:26
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signalnoise posted:I just hope that legendaries are few and in 150 packs you can expect to get everything you're going to want. This seems incredibly unlikely. Hex's first set is larger than anything in magic, where you would on average need 484 packs to get four of every mythic, and you'd need a lot more than that to have a reliable shot at it.
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Jun 17, 2013 19:24
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cheetah7071 posted:This seems incredibly unlikely. Hex's first set is larger than anything in magic, where you would on average need 484 packs to get four of every mythic, and you'd need a lot more than that to have a reliable shot at it. I believe the count was something like 16 Legendaries, so you might get at least one of each of them, if you open up all of the packs and the primal.
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Jun 17, 2013 20:24
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I think the math is clear that there are going to be a huge amount of cheap cards on the market. We'll have to wait and see how competitive the PvE and PvP scenes are to know exactly how useful most of those cards even are.
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Jun 17, 2013 20:24
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cheetah7071 posted:This seems incredibly unlikely. Hex's first set is larger than anything in magic, where you would on average need 484 packs to get four of every mythic, and you'd need a lot more than that to have a reliable shot at it. You won't get all the cards in Set 1 just from opening your Grand King packs but you might from trading on the AH and playing PvE using your GK cards as a base.
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Jun 17, 2013 20:31
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Do bear in mind you've got a year of free drafts, which gives you about 230 extra packs (assuming a 50% win chance for each game). Plus the proceeds from drafting with your original packs. Plus several primals from the Kickstarter reward, your starting boosters, and draft prizes. I'd be surprised if people at the $250 tiers couldn't get close to full playsets, honestly.
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Jun 17, 2013 20:45
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Set one is going to be a race to the bottom in value. I'm expecting set one packs to end up being less than $1 so the max value for a primal pack would be $15. ( Assuming that Legendary cards don't have a higher drop rate in primals compared to 15 packs, but then you also have to consider the value of the 135 commons and uncommons from buying 15 packs rather than a primal. ) The other weird thing with the economy is as long as the beta is behind a paywall nothing but the best stuff might move on the AH because with the average pledge being around $130 dollars that means the average player has 150+ boosters. So the pre-release economy will be very different from when it's open to everyone for free... which is kind of why i'm hoping for an actual beta and then we get all of our goodies at the actual release.
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Jun 18, 2013 00:54
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katkillad2 posted:Set one is going to be a race to the bottom in value. I'm expecting set one packs to end up being less than $1 so the max value for a primal pack would be $15. ( Assuming that Legendary cards don't have a higher drop rate in primals compared to 15 packs, but then you also have to consider the value of the 135 commons and uncommons from buying 15 packs rather than a primal. ) If I recall correctly, the guy from Cryptozoic who posted in here a few times said they were planning to have a real beta followed by a wipe and soft launch where people will get their kickstarter rewards but is technically still beta.
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Jun 18, 2013 01:02
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Everything depends on how many other people join in, if a lot do, the kickerstarter people's effects will be diluted, if not low price. Those 2 forces should hopefully balance out. For example if packs fall to 50 cents people will check it out because they can get into cheap. I hope is catches on since I went in a DC.
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Jun 18, 2013 01:19
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I feel like this thread would be better off in the plain "Games" forum. It is, after all, a video game. Maybe when the actual final release is out?
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Jun 20, 2013 03:16
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There are arguments to be made for either forum, but if the iOS board games thread is in Games instead of here, then this game probably should be too. But there's no good reason to bother opening a new thread until at least beta is up and things are actually happening on a regular basis.
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Jun 20, 2013 04:47
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Kairos posted:There are arguments to be made for either forum, but if the iOS board games thread is in Games instead of here, then this game probably should be too. But there's no good reason to bother opening a new thread until at least beta is up and things are actually happening on a regular basis. I'd say that once the game goes live, we move to the Games forum just because that would be a good way to get new players. You know, for the goon guild. Don't you want a goon CCG guild to have amazing splinter drama
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Jun 20, 2013 04:50
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Kairos posted:There are arguments to be made for either forum, but if the iOS board games thread is in Games instead of here, then this game probably should be too. But there's no good reason to bother opening a new thread until at least beta is up and things are actually happening on a regular basis. Duels of the Planeswalkers is in Games, which is the most solid confirmation that this should be there too. But I don't think it's worth worrying about now. I mean, the kickstarter is over and nothing hex-related is going to happen for months. Deal with it later when Open Beta launches.
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Jun 20, 2013 04:55
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Vincent Valentine posted:Duels of the Planeswalkers is in Games, which is the most solid confirmation that this should be there too. Yeah this, also, I got permission to make it here but not in games. When it's an actual released game - or at least in Beta - I'll make a new one in Games.
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Jun 20, 2013 05:08
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signalnoise posted:Don't you want a goon CCG guild to have amazing splinter drama Guild drama in a CCG game? Over what? Beating the GM in a draft? 
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Jun 20, 2013 06:44
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Blazing Zero posted:Guild drama in a CCG game? Over what? Beating the GM in a draft? I've got this hat full of reasons goon guilds splinter, reach in and grab one
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Jun 20, 2013 06:45
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Well in your standard mmo, sure. But this is about cards. I could see a splinter issue over keeps, if that affects the guild as a whole. Loot drops? I don't really see a whole lot of guild divisive issues in this game. I see more burnout and fade away than drama.
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Jun 20, 2013 06:52
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None of those things have ever mattered as much as personality conflicts, which will keep happening in every goon guild forever.
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Jun 20, 2013 07:41
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Well there are plenty of goon GKs (I think?) so if we need to stage a coup at least everyone will keep the sweet 10% extra xp boost Also lots of the terrible people on the official forum keep complaining about missing out on the Kickstarter and about how bad the Slacker Backer is value-wise compared to what they could have gotten - I wonder how long the closed beta will run for, but also more importantly I wonder if it will be possible to have some kind of guild-wide ignore list for whining shits
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Jun 20, 2013 08:26
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I stopped reading the official forums around the time I read a post from someone complaining that female Shin'hare aren't sexy enough.
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Jun 20, 2013 08:28
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Yeah, I wouldn't be too worried about guild demise. With small numbers needed for raids, we shouldn't have too many problems even if there is a schism. I don't think that HEX is going to have as command heavy a structure as most MMOs.
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Jun 20, 2013 08:32
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Grim posted:Well there are plenty of goon GKs (I think?) so if we need to stage a coup at least everyone will keep the sweet 10% extra xp boost Sounds like the pro-tier complaints all over again. The KS rewards were very generous and a great value and I don't want to be all "gently caress you got mine" because i'm sure a lot of people didn't even know Kickstarter or Hex existed, but they are in the business to make money and it's already a hell of a better value than MTGO. I can't see too many reasons for any guild splits in this type of game, except maybe general bickering. With the raid size being 3 people and no timers/lockouts you aren't going to have situations where people are getting left out.
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Jun 20, 2013 10:13
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signalnoise posted:I've got this hat full of reasons goon guilds splinter, reach in and grab one Oh boy, this is my favorite game. Let's play!
People lose their loving minds over the steak one. Lost five people over it.
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Jun 20, 2013 11:37
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Vincent Valentine posted:Oh boy, this is my favorite game. Let's play! I'm going to go with option one.
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Jun 20, 2013 12:03
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Vincent Valentine posted:Oh boy, this is my favorite game. Let's play! That's it i'm out before this even gets started. There's only one way to eat a steak and it includes nothing mentioned in that sentence and spoiling Game of Thrones is a dick move  . But seriously, even though this game is considering itself an MMO I don't think it will have the same drama/issues. The last guild drama I saw was in SWTOR, the guild leader would flip out if you weren't participating in discussion on the guild website. He was also incredibly angry that there were people in the guild who were leveling faster than him and was insisting there would be no end game raiding until he was max level and organized "the official" guild raid and people who were currently already raiding should probably stop or leave the guild. A ton of people were talking about splintering, but fortunately I quit that game rather fast so I never saw it unfold.
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Jun 20, 2013 12:12
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katkillad2 posted:Sounds like the pro-tier complaints all over again. The KS rewards were very generous and a great value and I don't want to be all "gently caress you got mine" because i'm sure a lot of people didn't even know Kickstarter or Hex existed, but they are in the business to make money and it's already a hell of a better value than MTGO. Why the heck not? It's not like you'd be bragging about something life changing. They lost out on a deal for a video game, not a deal for appropriately priced valuable healthcare. I for one will make sure to display my  to any pubbie that cries about it. We took a silly gamble for a silly card simulator, let's let our nerd flags fly!Karnegal posted:Yeah, I wouldn't be too worried about guild demise. With small numbers needed for raids, we shouldn't have too many problems even if there is a schism. I don't think that HEX is going to have as command heavy a structure as most MMOs. This is my opinion on it. Sure, really strong and offensive personalities will happen but they will weed themselves out. If it happens to be the goon-mander in chief, then people will  and be done with him. Hopefully it won't be after investing months of effort into whatever mechanics that make guilds better.Vincent Valentine posted:People lose their loving minds over the steak one. Lost five people over it. Ahaha! Please link me to something to read about this. For the record though, it's A-1 on the side.
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Jun 20, 2013 12:34
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Rare, blue if it's good meat, with horseradish. It's the one true way. (I'm trying and failing to see how anyone could be petty enough to quit a guild over it, though...)
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Jun 20, 2013 12:41
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pumpinglemma posted:Rare, blue if it's good meat, with horseradish. It's the one true way. (I'm trying and failing to see how anyone could be petty enough to quit a guild over it, though...) HERITIC I KILL YOU  NEW GUILD NOW In all seriousness, three person raids plus no raid timer restrictions should make things pretty chill.
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Jun 20, 2013 13:01
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Have they explicitly confirmed or denied having a 'Stamina bar' sort of mechanic to limit how much PvE content a player can do at once?
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Jun 20, 2013 13:09
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Neraren posted:Have they explicitly confirmed or denied having a 'Stamina bar' sort of mechanic to limit how much PvE content a player can do at once? I don't have the source, i think it was the last twitch broadcast, but yea they said there will be no energy system or anything like facebook games.
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Jun 20, 2013 13:12
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They explicitly denied it. e: quote:Can Dungeons/Raids/Single Player PVE be repeatedly completed for different or more rewards (experience/PVE cards/Equipment whatever)?
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Jun 20, 2013 13:14
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Vincent Valentine posted:Oh boy, this is my favorite game. Let's play! You're forgetting "Guild leaders abscond with all the cards in the guild bank" and "Everyone gets very angry about how everyone else is bringing the "wrong" deck to raids." edit: If your steak needs anything other than salt and maybe black pepper you're doing it wrong. And both those should go on the meat before it's cooked. Steak shouldn't hit the table needing anything. Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 14:25 on Jun 20, 2013 |
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Jun 20, 2013 14:22
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It begins
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Jun 20, 2013 14:49
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