Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

Italy's Chicken: Feb 25, 2001; cs is for cheaters

Mr. Wynand posted:

...more unemployment and wage stagnation.

The second thing that's going to happen is that a whole loving truckload of boomers that are about to retire...

You're almost pointing out something that may happen to balance out everything: boomers retire creating more jobs for the current unemployed to take over. I don't think anything drastic will happen to Canada, at least until the generation of "maxed credit" nears retirement.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 06:55

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# ? May 9, 2024 22:43

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

The retirement of boomers may never happen. It's irrelevant anyway. As mentioned previously, what's more important is what happens when banks start to call in their HELOCs.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 07:03

The Goon: Sep 11, 2001

The people I've spoken to who live in Ottawa are convinced that it's the safest market to purchase a house in, and even if the bubble pops housing prices will only remain stagnant and not actually go down, as was apparently the case in 2008.

Please tell me that they're wrong so that I can buy a nice property in New Edinburgh for a steal instead of a crack house in Vanier in 2016.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 07:55

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Ottawa's housing inventory is twice the amount at this time last year.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 14:42

Reince Penis: Nov 15, 2007; by R. Guyovich

Italy's Chicken posted:

You're almost pointing out something that may happen to balance out everything: boomers retire creating more jobs for the current unemployed to take over. I don't think anything drastic will happen to Canada, at least until the generation of "maxed credit" nears retirement.

Not necessarily, as if this mass retirement happens aggregate demand in the economy will decline noticeably.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 14:45

The RECAPITATOR: May 12, 2006; Cursed to like terrible teams.

Just so I can follow what's going on. When 'inventory' is thrown around, in this thread, does this mean the number of houses on the market that have not yet been sold?

# ? Aug 13, 2013 16:18

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Just helped a friend score a two-bedroom apartment in Calgary yesterday. The rent is pretty insane, the building had some damage (though not to his unit) from our floods, and it was still the last one offered by any of the major rental companies anywhere in the city (for a halfway reasonable price, that is).

As long as rental availability rates are well under 1%, as is the case here, can it really be called a bubble even if prices are exploding? Obviously it's a response to supply and demand as much as it's speculation.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 16:19

lonelywurm: Aug 10, 2009

PT6A posted:

Just helped a friend score a two-bedroom apartment in Calgary yesterday. The rent is pretty insane, the building had some damage (though not to his unit) from our floods, and it was still the last one offered by any of the major rental companies anywhere in the city (for a halfway reasonable price, that is).

As long as rental availability rates are well under 1%, as is the case here, can it really be called a bubble even if prices are exploding? Obviously it's a response to supply and demand as much as it's speculation.

I was helping a friend find a new place before the floods occurred, and while it wasn't easy to find a great place (it's not in any large city), I got her around a dozen possible options with a day of googling (and she ended up renting one). So I'm not sure it's fair to say, "well, things are bad right now [because of the floods], so it can't be a bubble [even though housing costs in Calgary have grown massively for years before the floods]." Yes, the lack of rental stock due to water damage is going to have an effect, but it's not the only factor that's gone to making properties in, for example Erin Woods, increase in value 1.5 times in a decade (a smaller house on the same street I grew up on is selling for $110,000 more than my parents sold for in 2004).

# ? Aug 13, 2013 16:30

Scald: May 5, 2008; Can't post for 26 years!

PT6A posted:

Just helped a friend score a two-bedroom apartment in Calgary yesterday. The rent is pretty insane, the building had some damage (though not to his unit) from our floods, and it was still the last one offered by any of the major rental companies anywhere in the city (for a halfway reasonable price, that is).

As long as rental availability rates are well under 1%, as is the case here, can it really be called a bubble even if prices are exploding? Obviously it's a response to supply and demand as much as it's speculation.

I'm not sure Alberta is the best example here given our economy is based largely on resource extraction, when that goes to poo poo so will our housing prices but somehow I don't see the price of oil dropping anytime soon nor the tar sands being exhausted. I pay $930 for a bachelor right now and have been looking for other places but finding a 1 bedroom in a nice building for less than $1200 isn't exactly a happening proposition. Ft. McMurray is the most notable example of this but I don't see housing coming down in Edmonton or Calgary anytime soon.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 17:22

Paper Mac: Mar 2, 2007; lives in a paper shack

The RECAPITATOR posted:

Just so I can follow what's going on. When 'inventory' is thrown around, in this thread, does this mean the number of houses on the market that have not yet been sold?

Yeah.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 19:44

Kafka Esq.: Jan 1, 2005; "If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)

It's one of the scariest words in Canada now.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 20:14

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

I'll be honest, I didn't believe any of you guys saying Calgary has a rental problem.

http://calgary.en.craigslist.ca/apa/3974472711.html

This is loving bullshit.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 20:56

The RECAPITATOR: May 12, 2006; Cursed to like terrible teams.

That has to be a mistake. That is obscene.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 21:08

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

That's a pretty bog standard "delusional landlord wanting to rent a furnished apartment" listing.

For instance, this.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 21:15

Zeitgueist: Aug 8, 2003; by Ralp

Fine-able Offense posted:

That's a pretty bog standard "delusional landlord wanting to rent a furnished apartment" listing.

For instance, this.

If one of those windows doesn't open a time-space portal to NYC, that's pretty nuts.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 21:29

Blade_of_tyshalle: Jul 12, 2009; If you think that, along the way, you're not going to fail... you're blind.

There's no one I've ever met, no matter how successful they are, who hasn't said they had their failures along the way.

Fine-able Offense posted:

That's a pretty bog standard "delusional landlord wanting to rent a furnished apartment" listing.

For instance, this.

That's an apartment? The pictures make it look like a hotel room.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 21:30

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Zeitgueist posted:

If one of those windows doesn't open a time-space portal to NYC, that's pretty nuts.

Blade_of_tyshalle posted:

That's an apartment? The pictures make it look like a hotel room.

That company (https://www.rentitfurnished.com) is my own personal chuckle factory.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 21:30

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

Blade_of_tyshalle posted:

That's an apartment? The pictures make it look like a hotel room.

That's like 250SQFT bigger than the apartment I rent right now.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 22:05

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Zeitgueist posted:

If one of those windows doesn't open a time-space portal to NYC, that's pretty nuts.

Why would you ever want to leave VANHATTAN?????

# ? Aug 13, 2013 22:10

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Would you believe that furnished short term rentals are in demand? Mostly from the newly divorced/separated segment of Vancouver's population.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 22:13

lonelywurm: Aug 10, 2009

Fine-able Offense posted:

That's a pretty bog standard "delusional landlord wanting to rent a furnished apartment" listing.

For instance, this.

Yeah. Renting in Calgary isn't great, but there's no way that place should be taken as remotely representative. Hell, just going through the other ads in there, I'm seeing places that are nicer than my first apartment in Calgary for less (by around $50/mo, but still).

# ? Aug 13, 2013 22:16

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Scald posted:

I'm not sure Alberta is the best example here given our economy is based largely on resource extraction, when that goes to poo poo so will our housing prices but somehow I don't see the price of oil dropping anytime soon nor the tar sands being exhausted.

Would require something really drastic such as the next door neighbor dramatically reducing oil dependence.

In many ways the US relationship in the mess is similar to the one between China and Australia, piles of energy exports to the US market brings in piles of hard cash which helps pump things up such as the local housing market for oil metros.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 22:17

Isentropy: Dec 12, 2010

etalian posted:

Off-topic but you can look up a interesting solution called the Vienna model for housing.

Wouldn't work for most cities since it depends on municipal government owning vast tracts of land in the city instead of private parties.

This allows the city government to cut deals with developers to expand or convert existing buildings to high quality class A rental units.

So the developer gets a chance to develop nice properties for a decent return over the lease agreement while the city government is able to provide both affordable and quality housing.

The Vienna model also gives the renters unique home ownership features such as being able to remodel their rental properties and also pass on the rental properties to their kids.

Pretty much makes more sense from instead of going with the US speculation model which places a higher priority on the appreciation "investment" aspect of housing instead of focusing on keep the price affordable in terms of income for the area and also keep the housing inflation expenses flat over time.

Also throwing out the "investment" perspective helps prevent the nasty entanglement with the beloved banking sector through government back of the private mortgage market or having the government held hostage when the bubbles explodes.

While this is impossible in most Canadian cities, from first glance this seems to be very, very possible in Halifax. Mostly because there are no actual tenants besides the big entertainment complexes/cabaret bars really left in the downtown area. I rarely like the idea of private-public partnerships but this actually seems like a very good way to take care of two problems at once.

# ? Aug 13, 2013 22:31

Justin Trudeau: Apr 4, 2009; There's a level of admiration I actually have for China because their basic dictatorship is allowing them to actually turn their economy around on a dime

etalian posted:

Would require something really drastic such as the next door neighbor dramatically reducing oil dependence.

You mean reducing their foreign oil dependence. They're already well on the way to doing that.

# ? Aug 14, 2013 01:17

Sassafras: Dec 24, 2004; by Athanatos

Sassafras fucked around with this message at 08:09 on Nov 26, 2013

# ? Aug 14, 2013 03:30

unlimited shrimp: Aug 30, 2008

Sassafras posted:

For all that people laugh at that site, I have friends who very successfully rent out places they furnished for ~1000 bucks on there for 600-800 per month above what would otherwise be market rent. If nobody used it, would it exist?

I assume anyone who can afford that option isn't hurting financially, or at least earns enough to be approved for a decent loan or LoC. That $7,200 - $9,600 savings over 12 moths would have paid for a lot of nice furniture they could have taken with them when they moved.

# ? Aug 14, 2013 03:46

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Isentropy posted:

While this is impossible in most Canadian cities, from first glance this seems to be very, very possible in Halifax. Mostly because there are no actual tenants besides the big entertainment complexes/cabaret bars really left in the downtown area. I rarely like the idea of private-public partnerships but this actually seems like a very good way to take care of two problems at once.

It also encourages competition since the lease agreements with the city government are really attractive to private companies and they do some really innovative design work/attractive architecture to help win the bids.

The whole concept really depends on federal level subsidies but makes more sense than inadvertently helping out real estate speculation such as in the Canadian bubble.

# ? Aug 14, 2013 04:06

apatheticman: May 13, 2003; Wedge Regret

Sassafras posted:

For all that people laugh at that site, I have friends who very successfully rent out places they furnished for ~1000 bucks on there for 600-800 per month above what would otherwise be market rent. If nobody used it, would it exist?

I'll just continue to assume it is a place for whores to rent for incalls.

# ? Aug 14, 2013 04:23

flashman: Dec 16, 2003

Sassafras posted:

For all that people laugh at that site, I have friends who very successfully rent out places they furnished for ~1000 bucks on there for 600-800 per month above what would otherwise be market rent. If nobody used it, would it exist?

A lot of times big oil will pay the tab for someone's living arrangements if they have to travel for work. I'm sure Calgary is chock full of oil company rentals that are empty most of the time. Even here in St. John's I know people personally renting out condos which while decent are not nearly worth the four grand a month they are pulling in. People are alot more frivolous with company money.

# ? Aug 14, 2013 10:41

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

hahaha why in gently caress are there condos in St. John. ~density~ in the maritimes

# ? Aug 14, 2013 15:26

flashman: Dec 16, 2003

I'm not sure why but housing has really gone crazy all across Newfoundland. In the small town where I grew up there is probably 20,000 people nothing but space and land is gonna run you around 70-100 thousand for a postage stamp. In St. John's it gets even worse, all the new developments are running you roughly 350k and it's all sold and developed by the same contractors (probably part of the issue). I mean in the grand scheme of the country it's not that high but you are living in Newfoundland so you would figure prices would be a bit more sane.

# ? Aug 14, 2013 18:28

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

In 20 years when all of this is in the rearview mirror, observers are going to marvel at the tulip-mania-like run-up in prices of land in a country whose largest and most plentiful resource is... land*.

(* Yes, I get that most of it is undeveloped, and lots is uninhabitable, etc - but there's a basic reality here that we've a land price bubble in a country that has essentially infinite supply of the stuff. Not gonna end well).

# ? Aug 14, 2013 18:34

Throatwarbler: Nov 17, 2008; by vyelkin

That's not a terribly compelling argument. Land isn't a fungible commodity, just because there's plenty of land in Fort Nelson doesn't mean land in downtown Vancouver should never get expensive?

# ? Aug 14, 2013 18:39

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Throatwarbler posted:

That's not a terribly compelling argument. Land isn't a fungible commodity, just because there's plenty of land in Fort Nelson doesn't mean land in downtown Vancouver should never get expensive?

I was specifically responding to a post about an empty area in Newfoundland. The Canadian Housing/Land bubble is not a Vancouver-only phenomenon.

# ? Aug 14, 2013 18:52

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Throatwarbler posted:

That's not a terribly compelling argument. Land isn't a fungible commodity, just because there's plenty of land in Fort Nelson doesn't mean land in downtown Vancouver should never get expensive?

Half of Vancouver is empty lots full of tumbleweeds, or single-story commercial that could easily be rezoned to five-story mixed use. The bullshit about 'running out of land' applies to literally every city in this country, no exceptions.

# ? Aug 14, 2013 19:46

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

Most people want to live near other people, services, jobs, culture, infrastructure. Unless we start building entire new cities with proper cores and everything from scratch, sprawling out from existing cities has rapidly diminishing returns. There's also a fairly minimum density expansion needs to justify the infrastructure, most sprawl doesn't and is essentially a ponzi scheme.

# ? Aug 14, 2013 19:48

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Baronjutter, you're surely not saying that, at an extreme, we need to ban development of rural areas because that would be 'unsustainable sprawl'?

# ? Aug 14, 2013 20:15

Paper Mac: Mar 2, 2007; lives in a paper shack

We already do that routinely with environmentally protected areas. If GTA developers had their way, the Oak Ridges moraine would have been destroyed.

# ? Aug 14, 2013 20:17

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Well of COURSE they need to blow up more greenfield for their developments! Everyone knows there's no room left to densify in Canadian urban cores. :downs:

Honestly, Main Street from 7th down to Terminal is either vacant lots or single-story commercial buildings. This is the heart of Vancouver, a few blocks from the Skytrain, and there's loving used car lots and vacant strips of scrub. It's a loving disgrace.

# ? Aug 14, 2013 20:23

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# ? May 9, 2024 22:43

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Well yeah. If you forced developers to do something with the huge empty lot across from Mario's Gelati at Quebec and 1st, that would mean a deluge of condo inventory in the area that would

oh oops.

# ? Aug 14, 2013 20:29

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