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Bezos definitely does.
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Sep 12, 2013 22:37
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Josh Lyman posted:Has there been any "famous" Silicon Valley founder who was a good CEO for the stock? Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Jerry Yang, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, none of these people know how to manage a stock. Probably because they're running a business.
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Sep 12, 2013 22:39
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Sergein Brin and Larry Page? Larry Ellison? Michael Dell? Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard?
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Sep 12, 2013 23:01
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Josh Lyman posted:Has there been any "famous" Silicon Valley founder who was a good CEO for the stock? Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Jerry Yang, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, none of these people know how to manage a stock. Amazon is up 281% over 5 years. Or I guess if you want to go further out, 17,200% since it went public. R.A. Dickey fucked around with this message at 23:43 on Sep 12, 2013 |
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Sep 12, 2013 23:40
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Yeah but what has he done for me today? haha Wasn't this thread that posted that pretty good article on how managing stock prices and shareholder return is exactly the wrong thing to focus on, something akin to sports worrying about covering the spread. Although I suppose in the stock picking thread that's really the main concern, secondary to a healthy business, I don't know. Dial M for MURDER fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Sep 12, 2013 |
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Sep 12, 2013 23:52
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Using less than 140 characters, explain why the Twitter IPO is one to avoid.
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Sep 13, 2013 00:39
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This is the gambling thread, not the investing thread. (e: In response to Dial M for MURDER) The Zynga management is certainly concerned about the stock price. From what I remember they haven't been particularly subtle about whether that or sound business fundamentals come first.
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Sep 13, 2013 00:42
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TheBuilder posted:Using less than 140 characters, explain why the Twitter IPO is one to avoid. Twitter IPO
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Sep 13, 2013 00:43
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TheBuilder posted:Using less than 140 characters, explain why the Twitter IPO is one to avoid. I am very interested in their filing. Want to see their P&L and revenue streams. Depending on the metrics it might be interesting.
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Sep 13, 2013 00:44
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evilwaldo posted:I am very interested in their filing. Less disclosure thanks to the JOBS act
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Sep 13, 2013 01:10
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Shear Modulus posted:This is the gambling thread, not the investing thread. The investors in this thread don't post as often, but we still exist.
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Sep 13, 2013 02:46
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Foma posted:Less disclosure thanks to the JOBS act I saw that and it turns me off.
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Sep 13, 2013 03:22
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evilwaldo posted:I saw that and it turns me off. We need JOBS, if we have to sacrifice knowing information about the companies to get them, so be it. How many people did Zynga have to lay off because people found out they are a poo poo business? We could have saved those high paying tech jobs, if only...
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Sep 13, 2013 03:25
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Doesn't the JOBS Act only apply to companies with less than a billion revenue? 10th most popular site on internet, < $1 billion revenue. lol
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Sep 13, 2013 03:47
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abagofcheetos posted:Doesn't the JOBS Act only apply to companies with less than a billion revenue? 10th most popular site on internet, < $1 billion revenue. lol In the social space, popularity does not equate to revenues by a long shot. If anything you can make a case that the opposite is true.
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Sep 13, 2013 03:53
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evilwaldo posted:In the social space, popularity does not equate to revenues by a long shot. If anything you can make a case that the opposite is true. I know. I just find it amusing that people have already forgotten the tech bubble.
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Sep 13, 2013 04:33
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Twitter can easily be a profitable, long lasting business. I don't see it going anywhere (if it did, someone would replicate it.) I'm interested in the IPO. I like Facebook better though, in the social space, over the long run. At some point, if they are smart, Facebook will get more into search and try to directly compete with Google. Facebook Ads aren't that different of an animal from Adwords. Could just be me desiring a viable Google competitor though. They've become a terrible search engine.
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Sep 13, 2013 05:23
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abagofcheetos posted:I know. I just find it amusing that people have already forgotten the tech bubble. I agree with you. My biggest fear is they lipstick it up so bad it turns into a Facebook. imabanana posted:Twitter can easily be a profitable, long lasting business. I don't see it going anywhere (if it did, someone would replicate it.) I'm interested in the IPO. Facebook hired some top level search people away from Google when their attempts at search imploded but I agree with you in that we need a competitor to Google. In terms of longevity, I think Twitter beats Facebook in the long run. Teens and early 20's are turning away from the site as they see it as a place their parents go. Another group of young adults are turning to smaller, more private, and robust social sites. It has become more about privacy and taking control over what they share. Facebook is moving in the opposite direction from their user base. In 10 years, I can see them being an also ran with some of the decisions they are making and being known as a game aggregator.
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Sep 13, 2013 05:51
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Twitter's user base is older than Facebook's. Bing is a credible competitor to Google (in terms of search result quality, at least).
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Sep 13, 2013 05:54
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DancingMachine posted:Twitter's user base is older than Facebook's. Older or using? Teens are abandoning Facebook for other social media sites. I will agree with you on Bing but the users are locked into Google. I use it myself by default because I am too lazy to change the default search engine on my browser.
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Sep 13, 2013 06:36
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evilwaldo posted:Older or using? Teens are abandoning Facebook for other social media sites. Yeah Facebook is aging out, agree. But Twitter is actually even higher up the age chart. I guess what remains to be seen is do kids "graduate" to Twitter as they reach their late 20's and 30's, or is Twitter just stuck with the cohort it has.
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Sep 13, 2013 17:04
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I take Twitter's prospects much more seriously since people explicitly follow people they are interested in. Ie, there is intent there. Whereas with Facebook its just people you know. For example, I follow well-known software engineers and a few hedge fund managers/finance folks. Twitter ads could have me pegged pretty easily.
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Sep 13, 2013 17:34
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nebby posted:I take Twitter's prospects much more seriously since people explicitly follow people they are interested in. Ie, there is intent there. Whereas with Facebook its just people you know. For example, I follow well-known software engineers and a few hedge fund managers/finance folks. Twitter ads could have me pegged pretty easily. What do you think all those likes of books, movies, companies etc are for? Maybe you haven't liked every single thing you have consumed over the past 10 years, but other people do, and that is a freaking honeypot. The fact that Netflix/Hulu and Facebook haven't combined to completely replace the Nielsen Ratings is a sign of incompetence of both parties.
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Sep 13, 2013 18:42
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I think where Facebook went wrong is their algorithm change on your news feed where they rearranged your feed based on what they thought was important. Twitter keeps things in real time although they do cultivate from 250 followers in order to keep the feed manageable.
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Sep 13, 2013 19:08
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evilwaldo posted:I think where Facebook went wrong is their algorithm change on your news feed where they rearranged your feed based on what they thought was important. I think you're on to something here. I recently deactivated my facebook because I realized that everyone posting stuff in my news feed just annoyed me and I'll be damned if I feel like going through and manually "managing" who shows up in my news feed. I felt like I was getting the same live feed posts from the same 25 people and incidentally they are people I haven't spoken to or seen in 5-7 years (why do I care what they have to say now?). Most of the time I forget that I'm even friends with people on facebook who I actually interact with in my current social circle. The site has seriously gone down hill for me as far as user experience goes and it has little to nothing to do with advertising (I've actually clicked on ads I've been interested in to be honest). 80% serious suggestion: What facebook really needs is a "dislike" or "hate" button. There should also be a feature where you can pay $5 to comment anonymously on your "friend's" stupid loving status update. If I could wreck people's poo poo without ruining real social relationships I'd be on facebook every waking hour. God imagine the revenues just from troll posts alone. Lightning Zwei fucked around with this message at 20:16 on Sep 13, 2013 |
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Sep 13, 2013 20:12
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Acquilae posted:Elon Musk: "It's not crazy to be short the stock" http://allthingsd.com/20130913/dont-bet-against-tesla-says-musk/
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Sep 14, 2013 00:18
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TSLA is so obviously overvalued but that doesn't make shorting it easy. The short interest is still huge. Most value investors will just avoid it.
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Sep 14, 2013 00:29
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Our school district is trying to push twitter as a means of student/parent contact. Our late 40s super is tweeting about schools she goes to. I think it reminds the older generation of text pagers, especially when tied to things like iphone/ipad.
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Sep 14, 2013 01:52
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I get tremendous value out of Twitter (even more than Facebook) and think it's great, but I'm definitely not investing in it.
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Sep 14, 2013 01:56
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Twitter is revolutionary. I think it outlasts FB by decades. Not saying I would invest as that obviously depends on a number of things, but it does intrigue me.
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Sep 14, 2013 05:34
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Where would their growth come from? Single product that can be replicated by any blog or website. Far less of a moat compared to FB where users invest a lot of time and use it as a primary means of communication with friends, and staying in touch with non-friends, because everyone has it. If they increased ads like facebook, it would be far easier for users to consume content elsewhere.
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Sep 14, 2013 06:46
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Replicated by a blog of website? Blogs for the most part are dying off because they are almost impossible to monetize. There are some examples but for the most part they are static content vehicles. The fact that you can read, analyze, and react in real time make Twitter a more dynamic platform that is difficult to replicate. The key here, and this is why I cannot stand the JOBS act, is that I want to know their P&L and sources of advertising. I want to know how they plan on monetizing content when the providers of content use it as a monetization vehicle for free. I use it as a vehicle to push content out for my writing and get paid for it. Twitter takes no cut. They are the intermediary. I put up with paid advertising for the ability to tweet my paid content. What is their five year plan?
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Sep 14, 2013 08:09
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Shear Modulus posted:This is the gambling thread, not the investing thread. CAREFUL you can get probated saying this poo poo I agree, but investors really are around (myself included), and really reading this godforsaken bullshit - you just gotta learn everyone's personalities. for the record though anyone actively trading apple is an idiot. 
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Sep 14, 2013 08:40
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Everyone is day trading options on Apple, Google, Tesla, and any other high priced stock. You just intraday trade the options with the volatility and make a killing if you know what you are doing. It is part of the reason they do not split.
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Sep 14, 2013 12:24
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scavok posted:Where would their growth come from? Single product that can be replicated by any blog or website. Far less of a moat compared to FB where users invest a lot of time and use it as a primary means of communication with friends, and staying in touch with non-friends, because everyone has it. If they increased ads like facebook, it would be far easier for users to consume content elsewhere. Couldn't disagree with you more. The entire value and purpose of Twitter as a platform is that it is an aggregator, of things that you personally select and are interested in, which is something that no single blog or website can replicate by definition. Part of the reason I was down in the Facebook IPO was that I think people will eventually get bored of it and its user base will be eaten away at by the next new social media platform. I can't even imagine what can replace Twitter at this point both because of its establised user base and also the idea that it has both social media aspects and has been legitimatized as a news source (again, in the aggregate). Whether its a good investment at this point is still up in the air without seeing the financials but I feel like if executed properly they have an amazing opportunity to generate ad revenue. The amount of data you can infer just based on who you follow and interact (and who they interact with, etc) is crazy. Take a look next time at the suggestions for who you should follow. For me at least, most of the time it's pretty dead on and it's only a matter of time before that technology gets monetized.
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Sep 14, 2013 20:36
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Google Plus is probably technically a better platform than Facebook, just like Bing (arguably) provides better search results than Google. Eventually the moat becomes the size of the network. I know everyone says Facebook will get replaced, I just don't see it. Instagram was a viable competitor and look what happened.
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Sep 14, 2013 20:54
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WIth Twitter you can unfollow anyone you want at any time and it's no big deal. In other words, you can completely alter what the service does for you over time as your interests change. With Facebook, your network is completely different. Un-friending people is a social faux-pas and in general you are going to be stuck connected to a bunch of idiots you don't care about. Facebook has incredible staying power but this is a double-edge sword: the very thing that provides their moat also limits the possibilities of their platform. It's pretty terrible we can't see TWTR's financial statements. I am bullish on Twitter the Product but how am I supposed to get a sense of what I'm willing to pay for Twitter the Company without this info?
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Sep 14, 2013 21:54
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evilwaldo posted:Everyone is day trading options on Apple, Google, Tesla, and any other high priced stock. Dynamic hedging with a view on IV?
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Sep 14, 2013 21:57
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nebby posted:It's pretty terrible we can't see TWTR's financial statements. I am bullish on Twitter the Product but how am I supposed to get a sense of what I'm willing to pay for Twitter the Company without this info? Unless I'm mistaken (very possible) that info will come out during the roadshow, which means by the time you can actually buy some it'll be available.
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Sep 14, 2013 22:05
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imabanana posted:Google Plus is probably technically a better platform than Facebook, just like Bing (arguably) provides better search results than Google. Eventually the moat becomes the size of the network. I think Facebook will stay around if for no other reason it is the place where you play your games. Long term I see it more as a game aggregator and less a social network. Where do people play Farmville, Angry Birds, and Candy Crush? Facebook. nebby posted:WIth Twitter you can unfollow anyone you want at any time and it's no big deal. In other words, you can completely alter what the service does for you over time as your interests change. With Facebook, your network is completely different. Un-friending people is a social faux-pas and in general you are going to be stuck connected to a bunch of idiots you don't care about. Facebook has incredible staying power but this is a double-edge sword: the very thing that provides their moat also limits the possibilities of their platform. I love the fact that Twitter allows me to control my content. I have three accounts for various purposes and I will actively unfollow someone that clogs up my account with retweets and does not add anything socially. Facebook, on the other hand, tells me what I should be seeing which turns it into a huge ad. There have been many occasions where something important happens with a friend and it hits my feed two days later. At that point, you socially look like an outcast for the late comment. evilwaldo fucked around with this message at 23:15 on Sep 14, 2013 |
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Sep 14, 2013 23:08
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