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AllanGordon posted:If Hillary runs for the party nomination and no significant opposition pops up when would it be appropriate for her to announce her VP candidate? Also would there be any chance that Hillary would pick Warren for her VP? To your first question, there's no advantage in announcing a VP candidate early. The VP pick only really triggers a small polling bump for a week and a debatable 1-2% gain in their home state in the general election. The best strategy is to continue vetting and grooming the possible picks as long as possible, getting to know each of them personally during joint campaign appearances and then announce the pick during the summer lull before the convention. Bonus points if you get news vans to park outside three different houses and let us buy them pizza. To your second question, no.
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Oct 31, 2013 00:27
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AllanGordon posted:If Hillary runs for the party nomination and no significant opposition pops up when would it be appropriate for her to announce her VP candidate? Also would there be any chance that Hillary would pick Warren for her VP? Near the convention. Build up anticipation as much as possible, and then drop the great news right before in order to win more media cycles. Get everyone ready for Vice President Terry McAuliffe!
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Oct 31, 2013 00:27
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jeffersonlives posted:Biden is giving every sign that he is going to make the race as long as he feels up to it whether Clinton's in or not. I have no doubts that Biden wants Clinton to know it's not a coronation and he'd be stupid to not hedge his bets against her deciding not to run but three years out I simply can't see him going all-in on Queen High. I definitely think he's angling for some sort of position in a Clinton WH though (or, hell, VP).
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Oct 31, 2013 00:28
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Joementum posted:I'm highly skeptical of all the hand-wringing about VPs having to come from particular geographic regions. Our last two have hailed from the key electoral states of Delaware and Wyoming. I think the only real tests that the VP needs to pass are (1) appear competent, and (2) get along with the top of the ticket. Traditionally VPs don't live in the same state as the presidential candidate, thus why Cheney moved to Wyoming when he ran with Bush. The idea being it would weaken the ticket if both candidates were from Texas. Clinton and Gore were both from southern states, something that hadn't happened since the Civil War. The purpose is to balance the ticket and appeal to more voters. Young Obama paired up with older, more seasoned older Biden, and also they're home states are about as geographically distant as you can get.
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Oct 31, 2013 00:29
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Highspeeddub posted:Traditionally VPs don't live in the same state as the presidential candidate, thus why Cheney moved to Wyoming when he ran with Bush. The idea being it would weaken the ticket if both candidates were from Texas. Clinton and Gore were both from southern states, something that hadn't happened since the Civil War. The purpose is to balance the ticket and appeal to more voters. Young Obama paired up with older, more seasoned older Biden, and also they're home states are about as geographically distant as you can get. It's not a tradition it's basically a constitutional requirement since electors can't vote for a President and a VP both from their same state.
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Oct 31, 2013 00:31
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serewit posted:I have no doubts that Biden wants Clinton to know it's not a coronation and he'd be stupid to not hedge his bets against her deciding not to run but three years out I simply can't see him going all-in on Queen High. I definitely think he's angling for some sort of position in a Clinton WH though (or, hell, VP). Biden is the one organizing an infrastructure and trying to lock up minor politicians and establishment figures in Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina right now, not Clinton. He's going pretty far beyond shots across the bow and hedging bets. It's not like he has anything to lose by running, even if he relatively flops he'll still do far better than 1988 and 2008.
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Oct 31, 2013 00:32
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There are constitutional problems with the candidates being from the same state, but aside from that any talk of the VP balancing the ticket is media pundit bullshit. In fact, balancing efforts tend to work against the campaigns, rather than help them.
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Oct 31, 2013 00:32
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farraday posted:It's not a tradition it's basically a constitutional requirement since electors can't vote for a President and a VP both from their same state. I think they actually can be from the same state, they just don't get their state's electors.
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Oct 31, 2013 00:33
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serewit posted:I have no doubts that Biden wants Clinton to know it's not a coronation and he'd be stupid to not hedge his bets against her deciding not to run but three years out I simply can't see him going all-in on Queen High. I definitely think he's angling for some sort of position in a Clinton WH though (or, hell, VP). I think everyone would be fine with Biden being the VP again...especially The Onion so they can have Diamond Joe wake up after an election bender only to find out the "chill black dude" he's been hanging out with for the last 8 years is now a "fine rear end MILF", and how he can't wait to "cruse with her up to Camp David in his Trans Am for some hot tub time".
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Oct 31, 2013 00:34
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serewit posted:I definitely think he's angling for some sort of position in a Clinton WH though (or, hell, VP). Transportation Secretary Biden would be pretty great.
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Oct 31, 2013 00:38
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jeffersonlives posted:Biden is the one organizing an infrastructure and trying to lock up minor politicians and establishment figures in Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina right now, not Clinton. He's going pretty far beyond shots across the bow and hedging bets. What sounds more likely to you, though, that Biden *really* wants to go at it with the Clinton Machine and give the press endless horserace stories about Obama's SoS and VP sniping each other or that he's trying to angle himself as a kingmaker who can negotiate whatever he wants out of a presumable Clinton admin and toss this support over to her? I'm not trying to say that I'm right and you're wrong, but I just think scenario two is more likely than scenario one. Transport Secretary Biden for Life.
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Oct 31, 2013 00:43
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Gygaxian posted:I think they actually can be from the same state, they just don't get their state's electors. Yes, and "being from the same state" just goes off where they declare their current residence to be. Apartment rental in a neighboring state suffices.
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Oct 31, 2013 00:43
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StarMagician posted:Then do I have some bad news for you:
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Oct 31, 2013 00:47
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serewit posted:What sounds more likely to you, though, that Biden *really* wants to go at it with the Clinton Machine and give the press endless horserace stories about Obama's SoS and VP sniping each other or that he's trying to angle himself as a kingmaker who can negotiate whatever he wants out of a presumable Clinton admin and toss this support over to her? I'm not trying to say that I'm right and you're wrong, but I just think scenario two is more likely than scenario one. Given what we know about Joe Biden, very much the former. Has Biden ever given the slightest poo poo about being a silent kingmaker?
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Oct 31, 2013 00:53
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pangstrom posted:Well, the fact that Norm MacDonald is considered disorganized unreliable and eccentric FOR A COMEDIAN still trumps any politics, in my mind. I can't remember the last time a press secretary said anything worth remembering (in a positive sense) so there's really nowhere to go but up. Oh, don't get me wrong, I think Norm MacDonald is the best comedian working today. But the thought of him being press secretary for President Bernie Sanders is a little farfetched given his politics.
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Oct 31, 2013 00:59
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Joe Biden has been running for President for longer than most people who post on this forum have been alive. He's not going to stop now when he's closer to it than he's ever been.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:02
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Joementum posted:To your first question, there's no advantage in announcing a VP candidate early. The VP pick only really triggers a small polling bump for a week and a debatable 1-2% gain in their home state in the general election. The best strategy is to continue vetting and grooming the possible picks as long as possible, getting to know each of them personally during joint campaign appearances and then announce the pick during the summer lull before the convention. Bonus points if you get news vans to park outside three different houses and let us buy them pizza. Also the incumbent party gets to hold their convention last and there is no need to tip her hand before the Republicans announce their VP choice. DynamicSloth fucked around with this message at 01:07 on Oct 31, 2013 |
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Oct 31, 2013 01:04
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Joe Biden is currently the Vice President of the United States, a position with arguably more behind the scenes power in the last 20 years than the Secretary of State. He has a hundred million dollars in pre-written donor checks, will be living in Iowa for the next two years, and has a primary Rolodex that any of the GOP runners would die for. "He's trying to play kingmaker so he can be appointed Secretary of Cool" is not a thing that exists or makes sense. It's up there with Hillary totes appointing Bernie Warren veep because progressives really want it. e: that said there's definitely a chance that Hillary and Joe wind up in a room one day soon and the first person to walk out of it is the only one to run. It's just that there is also a significant chance the other will be dead. Adar fucked around with this message at 01:09 on Oct 31, 2013 |
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Oct 31, 2013 01:05
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Let's go back to Obama replacing Biden as VP, which was totally ever a thing that would happen.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:08
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Joementum posted:Transportation Secretary Biden would be pretty great. The nation awakens on January 21st 2017 to find the entire interstate highway system was replaced with railways overnight. The press notes that in hindsight Biden wearing his engineer's cap to the inauguration ceremony was a giveaway. Edit: As far as Hilary vs Joe, 2008 shows that a drawn out fight between two heavy weights can be alright for the Democrats. Especially if 2016 is the clown show on the GOP side that it's shaping up to be. Gyges fucked around with this message at 01:12 on Oct 31, 2013 |
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Oct 31, 2013 01:09
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Neither is going to be too worried about "turbulence in the house of Obama" as long as the GOP continues on its present course, as well. Maybe if the GOP was making all the right moves, uniting behind someone like Rubio and doing strong minority outreach while marginalizing the tea party...but they're not. They're in full crazy meltdown mode, and any victories they make will be through voter suppression and inflaming the base. As long as the GOP will have another "seven dwarves" tearing down whoever the establishment candidate is, they have no worries.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:09
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Unfortunately his theoretical opponent is Hilary fuckin' Clinton which sort of upsets the traditional calculus in these hypothetical matchups.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:10
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serewit posted:Unfortunately his theoretical opponent is Hilary fuckin' Clinton which sort of upsets the traditional calculus in these hypothetical matchups. The problem with this argument is that Joe Biden is currently the Vice President in the Not Hillary Clinton administration.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:11
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DynamicSloth posted:Also the incumbent party gets to hold their convention last Though that's just a norm and something Reince could get more drunk than usual one night and decide to change. Gyges posted:The nation awakens on January 21st 2017 to find the entire interstate highway system was replaced with railways overnight. The press notes that in hindsight Biden wearing his engineer's cap to the inauguration ceremony was a giveaway. Vice President of Transportation Joe Biden will leave one lane on the Interstates, to be used only by bikers.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:15
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jeffersonlives posted:The real trouble for Hillary, as always, is that the Clintons have very significant establishment enemies. The secondary trouble is that the sitting Vice President that doubles as probably the best retail politician in the party has had deep presidential ambitions for 37 years or so and this will be his last best shot at it. Maybe the Clintons have some enemies left in the party but they don't have that much sway if they can't prevent 30% of the Senate caucus from endorse Hillary unsolicited.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:15
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Adar posted:The problem with this argument is that Joe Biden is currently the Vice President in the Not Hillary Clinton administration. I can't offhandedly recall if there's been a race wherein the sitting VP ran against a member of the sitting Presidents cabinet, but I'll grant you that Biden would be a very serious contender in this hypothetical matchup and he certainly will run if he thinks he can win. I just don't think he can win, so he won't run. We'll see!
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Oct 31, 2013 01:16
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serewit posted:I can't offhandedly recall if there's been a race wherein the sitting VP ran against a member of the sitting Presidents cabinet
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Oct 31, 2013 01:18
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DynamicSloth posted:The Democrats are in real trouble if the best retail politician in the party couldn't top a percentage point in Iowa. Biden ran what was considered an excellent campaign, and got completely drowned by lack of media attention and money. He is now the VPOTUS so that will not be a problem in a 2016 run.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:23
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serewit posted:I can't offhandedly recall if there's been a race wherein the sitting VP ran against a member of the sitting Presidents cabinet, but I'll grant you that Biden would be a very serious contender in this hypothetical matchup and he certainly will run if he thinks he can win. I know you think he can't and I'm very happily collecting bets from a lot of people who also think he can't, so you're not alone. The important thing, though, is that Biden most certainly thinks he can. The other important thing and the reason that Biden isn't crazy is that Hillary lost to John Edwards in Iowa and is all but guaranteed to get destroyed in South Carolina, meaning that this time around she either scores a very early knockout or it goes to Super Tuesday -again- and every single person that has pissed off a Clinton since 1970-something lines up behind Not Hillary -again-. Granted, this time around the Senate majority leader is not actively recruiting Charismatic Black Guy to save the party from the ravening Clintonian hordes, but the only thing that really matters is Iowa, and Iowa has already wrecked her campaign once.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:23
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serewit posted:I can't offhandedly recall if there's been a race wherein the sitting VP ran against a member of the sitting Presidents cabinet The closest you'll get in the modern era is Hubert Humphrey vs Robert Kennedy in '68, as RFK was a former cabinet member of the Johnson administration, though certainly not be Johnson's choice. Also, 1968 is about as hosed up as you can possibly get in terms of party primaries and probably not a good precedent.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:25
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jeffersonlives posted:Biden ran what was considered an excellent campaign, and got completely drowned by lack of media attention and money. He is now the VPOTUS so that will not be a problem in a 2016 run. An excellent campaign isn't one that runs out of money and Mike Huckabee won Iowa with an almost identical fundraising total. I'm not saying he can't make a better go of it this time but he's never proven himself a particularly strong Presidential candidate.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:27
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I'm gonna make the following statement based on the assumption that Ted Cruz becomes the GOP nominee which would be likely, if the primaries started next month. I think Biden would do better in a series of debates against Cruz than would Hillary. So I wouldn't mind having a Biden POTUS. But I would hate to have Democratic hopes in 2016 go down in flames because of some lovely show pony debates that the media could wind up giving to a Princeton debate champion with no substance.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:27
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DynamicSloth posted:Well the first contested Presidential contest for one.  Adar posted:I know you think he can't and I'm very happily collecting bets from a lot of people who also think he can't, so you're not alone. The important thing, though, is that Biden most certainly thinks he can. The real question - which remains to be seen - is how much of Clintonland gets sent to the gulag for failing her in '08. I'd like to think that they'll learn from their mistakes and see how much of Team Obama they can crib. Of course, if Unca Joe walks off with the Obama infrastructure than this race gets a lot more interesting. ed - It'll be the height of hilarity if Clinton and Biden are both in it and Clinton starts hitting on UHC from the left, though. Bidencare has a nice ring to it.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:30
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DynamicSloth posted:An excellent campaign isn't one that runs out of money and Mike Huckabee won Iowa with an almost identical fundraising total. I'm not saying he can't make a better go of it this time but he's never proven himself a particularly strong Presidential candidate. Mike Huckabee won a Republican primary filled with a bunch of clowns who other than Mike Huckabee couldn't speak to the religious conservative base that dominates the Republican caucuses. Biden was up against not just one and not just two but three candidates of far better quality than anything the Republicans were throwing out. Or I'll just appeal to the highest authority: Biden's campaign was good enough that the guy who won picked him as the running mate!
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Oct 31, 2013 01:33
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jeffersonlives posted:Mike Huckabee won a Republican primary filled with a bunch of clowns who other than Mike Huckabee couldn't speak to the religious conservative base that dominates the Republican caucuses. Biden was up against not just one and not just two but three candidates of far better quality than anything the Republicans were throwing out. Obama didn't pick Biden for his campaign expertise. He wanted Biden as a liaison to Congress. Biden's campaign was terrible. It's been terrible every time he's run. Whatever he's like in person, on the campaign trail he's got all the charisma of cold oatmeal.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:45
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jeffersonlives posted:Mike Huckabee won a Republican primary filled with a bunch of clowns who other than Mike Huckabee couldn't speak to the religious conservative base that dominates the Republican caucuses. Biden was up against not just one and not just two but three candidates of far better quality than anything the Republicans were throwing out. Obviously he'll have some inherent advantages as sitting VP none of which have anything to do with him being a particularly good retail politician. jeffersonlives posted:Or I'll just appeal to the highest authority: Biden's campaign was good enough that the guy who won picked him as the running mate!
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Oct 31, 2013 01:46
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DynamicSloth posted:Other brilliant campaigners predicted by this metric: Dan Quayle, Sarah Palin, Al Gore and Dick Cheney. Gore had run a competitive campaign in 1988 (and then turned back a pretty serious primary challenge in 2000), and none of the rest had actually run before. There's a difference between picking a question mark and picking someone who is a known liability. Deteriorata posted:Obama didn't pick Biden for his campaign expertise. He wanted Biden as a liaison to Congress. Biden's campaign was terrible. It's been terrible every time he's run. Whatever he's like in person, on the campaign trail he's got all the charisma of cold oatmeal. He actually picked him to speak to old white people in Pennsylvania, and to a lesser extent Florida and Ohio.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:50
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DynamicSloth posted:Other brilliant campaigners predicted by this metric: Dan Quayle, Sarah Palin, Al Gore, Dick Cheney and of course Joementum himself. Of those people, only Al Gore ran a primary campaign.
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Oct 31, 2013 01:50
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Joementum posted:Of those people, only Al Gore ran a primary campaign. Suggesting that strength in running a primary campaign is rarely on the successful nominee's mind when choosing a Veep. jeffersonlives posted:Gore had run a competitive campaign in 1988 jeffersonlives posted:He actually picked him to speak to old white people in Pennsylvania, and to a lesser extent Florida and Ohio.
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Oct 31, 2013 02:01
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I just want Joe Biden to be the country's first three-term Vice President. Is that really so much to ask?
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Oct 31, 2013 02:04
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