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TheChirurgeon posted:I agree, but I think the conclusion you should draw from this line of reasoning is not that "Clowney is a guy you can build around" (he is), but rather that the Vikings have enough needs that their goal should be trading down to improve the number of picks they have. If Minnesota trades down to acquire more lesser players over a franchise-altering talent like Clowney they are sunk and may as well close up shop. There is no future in mediocrity.
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Oct 31, 2013 23:13
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Gendo posted:If Minnesota trades down to acquire more lesser players over a franchise-altering talent like Clowney they are sunk and may as well close up shop. There is no future in mediocrity. After the Herschel Walker trade you'd think you would appreciate the value of the draft more
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Oct 31, 2013 23:21
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Disillusionist posted:After the Herschel Walker trade you'd think you would appreciate the value of the draft more Don't worry though because I'm relatively sure Spielman will see it the same way and trade down, pick Manziel and doom this dumb team to another thousand years of darkness. Enjoy your Youtube scouting everyone.
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Oct 31, 2013 23:27
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Gendo posted:Enjoy your Youtube scouting everyone. 
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Oct 31, 2013 23:28
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Gendo posted:This makes for a nice glib retort but we're not talking about that kind of trade are we? We're talking about adding an extra mid round pick. Another Gerald Hodges does poo poo for this franchise. You're the one who said mid round pick. I said Julio Jones trade value. Otherwise it wouldn't be worth it.
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Oct 31, 2013 23:29
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Disillusionist posted:You're the one who said mid round pick. I said Julio Jones trade value. Otherwise it wouldn't be worth it. Even the Julio Jones trade hasn't turned out ideally for the Browns. The Browns wound up with Brandon Weeden, Phil Taylor, and Greg Little instead of Jones, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Ryan Kerrigan, etc. Phil Taylor is good, but he's not on the same level as the guys the Browns could have had. Little has fallen off this year. And Weeden is a waste. You can write that off as bad scouting, but the hard truth is that the NFL draft is largely a crapshoot outside of a few rare talents. We've become accustomed to assuming trading down = good thing because teams like the Patriots have been able to do it well. But teams at the bottom of the first round are never going to have a surefire talent sitting on the board and thus have much less to risk by trading down.
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Nov 1, 2013 00:15
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Am I missing some kind of running gag when people say Manziel is like 175-180 lbs because he's listed at 210.
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Nov 1, 2013 00:25
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Alouicious posted:Am I missing some kind of running gag when people say Manziel is like 175-180 lbs because he's listed at 210. You can list him at whatever you want, he looks very very tiny out there.
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Nov 1, 2013 00:31
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Declan MacManus posted:You can list him at whatever you want, he looks very very tiny out there. Like a taller Doug Flutie.
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Nov 1, 2013 00:32
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[quote="Emanuel Collective" post="421157050"] We've become accustomed to assuming trading down = good thing because teams like the Patriots have been able to do it well. In the sense they get lots of picks. Not really in terms of overall players. They whiff on the draft as much as anyone else, believe it or not.
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Nov 1, 2013 00:35
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Emanuel Collective posted:We've become accustomed to assuming trading down = good thing because teams like the Patriots have been able to do it well. If anything the Patriots show that hoarding picks doesn't mean a better draft, same with the Packers. Having an All Pro Quarterback makes all the woes of starting 3-4 undrafted rookies on defense go away.
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Nov 1, 2013 00:36
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Alouicious posted:Like a taller Doug Flutie. I realize he wasn't exactly a lottery pick quality player, but there are worse people to compared to than Doug Flutie.
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Nov 1, 2013 01:53
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El Gallinero Gros posted:I realize he wasn't exactly a lottery pick quality player, but there are worse people to compared to than Doug Flutie. It wasn't an insult. 
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Nov 1, 2013 02:13
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AAA DOLFAN posted:
They do whiff as much as anyone else; like I said, teams have more or less the same success rate when it comes to finding players. But by giving yourself more lottery tickets you're maximizing your chances. The Patriots have been lovely at drafting for several reasons, but accumulating picks is still an optimal strategy. And regardless of how Cleveland used the picks they got in exchange for Julio Jones, they still made the right move. Julio Jones isn't going to look as good with Weeden, McCoy or whoever the hell the Browns trot out at QB in this scenario, but getting those picks instead is a good strategy. They just happened to blow one on Weeden in a universally panned move. Atlanta made the wrong move. They traded up for Julio Jones so he could put them over the top but here are the results so far: Year 1: They get blanked in the playoffs by the Giants, scoring 0 points on offense. Year 2: Beat by a superior San Francisco team, which had much more depth overall. Year 3: JJ is hurt early and their season is in the toilet, largely because of their depth issues. Now Tony G is gone next year, Roddy is older and coming off injuries, Stephen Jackson is older and coming off injuries, they have a terrible offensive line and a bad defensive line. They sure could benefit from some of those picks they traded for Julio Jones. You can't tell me that they're going to be better off next year than they probably would have been otherwise.
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Nov 1, 2013 04:02
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bewbies posted:Not at all. Gabbert was pretty universally regarded as a top 15 prospect, and rightly so. He had all the physical tools, was very productive in college, seemed diligent and hard working, etc etc. There were no real red flags. Was Gabbert really all that productive in college, though? In his final year he put up 245 yards per game, 6.7 yards per attempt, 63% completion percentage, and 16 / 9 TD:INT ratio. Seems really pedestrian for someone that's supposed to be an elite prospect. il serpente cosmico fucked around with this message at 04:59 on Nov 1, 2013 |
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Nov 1, 2013 04:43
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il serpente cosmico posted:Was Gabbert really all that productive in college, though? In his final year he put up 245 yards per game, 6.7 yards per attempt, 63% completion percentage, and 16 / 9 TD:INT ratio. Seems really pedestrian for someone that's supposed to be an elite prospect. He was hurt with a high ankle sprain for a big chunk of that year, although I don't remember if he actually missed any games with it. It was definitely noticeable and he wasn't the same while that was going on. He threw for more yards and TDs his sophomore year, although he was more accurate as a junior with worse receivers. So I guess I'd call him productive in general but not eye-poppingly so as far as college stats go. e: Huh I'm remembering completely wrong, the ankle was in his sophomore year. So never mind, I guess the only difference I remember was receivers.
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Nov 1, 2013 05:14
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I think the idea behind Gabbert was he had the tools to be a good QB, and he probably interviewed extremely well. I just really didn't like his feet under pressure and his tendency to double clutch and poo poo himself in general when under duress. I think you can chalk that one up to the old arrogance of coaches "I can fix that  "
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Nov 1, 2013 06:07
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Grittybeard posted:He was hurt with a high ankle sprain for a big chunk of that year, although I don't remember if he actually missed any games with it. It was definitely noticeable and he wasn't the same while that was going on. He threw for more yards and TDs his sophomore year, although he was more accurate as a junior with worse receivers. I checked out his this highlight reel of him in college: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPfJgy8n_LA All I see are screen passes or receivers wide open 5-10 yards from scrimmage--basically the only things he can do in the NFL. I also don't see a single clip of him in duress. It's odd to me that he was rated so highly by scouts--I don't see anything there he'd be able to hang his hat on in the NFL, and if I remember correctly some scouts were rating him higher than Cam Newton.
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Nov 1, 2013 06:42
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All you needed to see to know Gabbert was going to be terrible in the NFL was his game against Nebraska. Holy poo poo was he bad in that game and his performance in the NFL is an exact doppleganger of that game, repeated 16 times over, every year. The complete lack of pocket awareness, the seeing phantom defenders, the bad decisions, all of it. Look at this gorgeous statline: 17/43 - 134 YD (3.1 YPA) - 0 TD 2 INT e: hahaha I forgot he played them twice. second verse same as the first 18/42 - 199 YD (4.7 YPA) - 1 TD 1 INT I recognize that Nebraska had Suh and Lavonte David but you'd have to have seen the game to understand. His internal clock got completely broken and he was just a deer in headlights. He escaped pockets when the pocket was not collapsing, he'd run into sacks. I don't really know why I watched the full game to be honest. It must have been a really boring afternoon slate of games. The 7th Guest fucked around with this message at 07:52 on Nov 1, 2013 |
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Nov 1, 2013 07:20
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^^--Yeah as it turns out that's who he really is. Jacksonville has helped make that true by employing people with names like Guy Whimper to block for him, but yeah.il serpente cosmico posted:I checked out his this highlight reel of him in college: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPfJgy8n_LA A lot of that is just the offense Mizzou runs (and a large part of my ongoing hatred of the WR screen comes from watching them throw those all day and have them get blown up), although you can see him dropping a few nice passes over LBs and into somewhat covered receivers there and when he decided to get rid of the ball he managed to do it quickly. I think a lot of his rise came from the combine and scouts watching him do drills outside of games but there were things there to like even in games. e: That first Nebraska game it was just pouring all night (and that's when Suh blew up Gabbert's ankle), so that's somewhat mitigated. The second one Nebraska just beat the poo poo out of them. Grittybeard fucked around with this message at 07:36 on Nov 1, 2013 |
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Nov 1, 2013 07:33
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il serpente cosmico posted:I checked out his this highlight reel of him in college: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPfJgy8n_LA MU was a very heavy screen team when Gabbert was here, but that was more because they were excellent at blocking downfield than it was trying to cover up any QB deficiencies. He was rated highly because he had good size+arm in a class that quickly went south after Cam Newton. He was a case where he needed to stay another year in college, but I don't think being under David Yost for another year would of done him any good.
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Nov 1, 2013 09:05
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Man, three years later and I still loving hate Blaine Gabbert
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Nov 1, 2013 09:57
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Blaine Gabbert is not an NFL caliber name.
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Nov 1, 2013 10:17
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Still haven't seen anyone mention that Gabbert was the "smart" qb as well. Supposedly he was a real x's and o's kind of guy. Had the best chance at understanding defenses and making quality reads consistently like the highest tier of qb's can do.
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Nov 1, 2013 11:44
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I remember Ponder Locker and Cam being really big and Dalton being a minor guy along with Mallet and a couple of the minor guys that were taken in late rounds. I remember everyone agreeing Kaep needed a loooot of time to sit. Then it seemed like all the sudden around March Gabbert popped up as a prospect and all the sudden everybody was felating him. Then again at the time I was in a Georgian village in the caucus mountains being very careful not to step in cowshit and pooping in a wooden outhouse soooo... This is not me trying to be smug. I didn't want the Bengals to draft Green and was hoping they'd land Ponder in the second. I just don't remember Gabbert being someone who was there all along and to me it seemed like his support was drummed up and artificial. Edit: Lol check out 2011 me: Some dumb jerk posted:My prediction is that Cam is going to be a league average QB throwing with Roethlisberger-esque sack escaping and a tendency to scramble when he doesn't need to. He'll be one of those guys who can't really win or lose a game singlehandedly. Good on a good team, average on a bad team. Oh and he'll occasionally say stupid poo poo and cause media circuses. About Kyle Orton level in terms of talent. One of the guys who perennially looks like he's about to develop into an elite player but never does. Archives are awesome. Found it: 
Eifert Posting fucked around with this message at 13:57 on Nov 1, 2013 |
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Nov 1, 2013 13:27
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Volkerball posted:Still haven't seen anyone mention that Gabbert was the "smart" qb as well. Supposedly he was a real x's and o's kind of guy. Had the best chance at understanding defenses and making quality reads consistently like the highest tier of qb's can do. Yeah, Gabbert's problems stem almost 100% from him just being terrified as soon as the ball is in his hands. It's not like Jacksonville's OL has helped that any since he's been here but he's been broken like this since his first snap in the NFL. I still think he could be (or have been, rather) a serviceable backup at least, but not if he's pissing himself before any of his receivers can get even 5 yards downfield. And now he gets injured almost every time he's hit, so I think he's pretty much just Carr'd himself out of ever starting for anyone else ever again.
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Nov 1, 2013 14:11
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Quest For Glory II posted:All you needed to see to know Gabbert was going to be terrible in the NFL was his game against Nebraska. Holy poo poo was he bad in that game and his performance in the NFL is an exact doppleganger of that game, repeated 16 times over, every year. The complete lack of pocket awareness, the seeing phantom defenders, the bad decisions, all of it. Um For your proof that you "knew" Gabbert was going to fail in the NFL, you have chosen a game: 1) that was one of the more dominant single game performances by one of the best college defensive players of all time. 2) that was played in one of the heaviest rainstorms I've ever seen a football game played in. (it was comparable to Chiefs/Seahawks in 1998 or that "punt stuck in the ground" game) 3) where Gabbert suffered a pretty nasty high ankle sprain in the 1st quarter. Good analysis, dude. I realize that internet is a bastion of blowhards when it comes to the draft but this kind of ex post facto stuff really irritates me. Fortunately, we're on a forum that has archives! I'd love to see your comments back in 2009 wherein you predict Gabbert's NFL future based off of this game you've chosen to analyze.
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Nov 1, 2013 14:12
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Eifert Posting posted:Then it seemed like all the sudden around March Gabbert popped up as a prospect and all the sudden everybody was felating him. Not really. He was #5 in Kiper's first mock: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/news/story?page=KiperMockDraft1.0 He was #3 in McShay's from the same day: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/news/story?id=6036153 Both were from January.
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Nov 1, 2013 14:24
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Those posts were from January 6th. I can keep looking if you'd like but general perception in the thread was that he was just being talked up by draft analysts.
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Nov 1, 2013 14:26
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Eifert Posting posted:Those posts were from January 6th. I can keep looking if you'd like but general perception in the thread was that he was just being talked up by draft analysts. I don't doubt that was your perception. What I'm telling you is that, regardless of that perception, he was pretty highly thought of by every draft writer I'm aware of, as well as by at least one (and I would guess most) NFL teams. And, I'll, add, rightly so. He was a very impressive prospect. The reason he started showing up at the top of mock drafts in January is because that's when he announced he was declaring for the draft. NFL Draft Scout, for example, had him on top of their 2012 rankings from the beginning of his sophomore season.
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Nov 1, 2013 14:38
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Gabbert had been anointed as a future NFL quarterback ever since high school. He was considered the top pro style QB in a recruiting class that included Andrew Luck.
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Nov 1, 2013 15:40
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Wasn't he a five star recruit across the board? I remember it being a huge deal that Missouri was able to land him...he was getting offers all across the country if I recall correctly.
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Nov 1, 2013 15:41
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Yeah. Him and Dayne Crist (lmao) were the only 5* pro style QB recruits that year.
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Nov 1, 2013 15:56
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Groucho Marxist posted:Yeah. Him and Dayne Crist (lmao) were the only 5* pro style QB recruits that year. "Kansas' 2012 football season ended with a game at West Virginia, where Crist would only play a few snaps. Many have debated that although Kansas only won one game out of twelve, it was still a successful year, seeing as they lead most of the first half versus Kansas State, who at the time was #7 in the nation, nearly beat Texas at home, who was a top 25 team at the time, and went into overtime and almost beat Texas Tech, who was also a top 25 team at the time. The other side of the debate focuses on the fact that the Jayhawks failed to win a game after labor day, and a significant reason for the poor season was the play of Crist, who finished the season with the worst Quarterback rating in NCAA Division 1A (ranked 116 out of 116 qualifying quarterbacks)." I know scouting (especially high school scouting) is a crap shoot, but wow did they miss on Dayne Crist. 116 / 116 in quarterback rating is...well, the worst.
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Nov 1, 2013 15:59
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High school scouting is difficult. It's all based on hype and state championship games. Then, after they get recruited, any number of things can happen to make the prospect look like poo poo. Remember Seantrel Henderson being 300 lbs of muscle his senior year of high school? Who woulda thought his career would have been derailed by snakebite injuries.
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Nov 1, 2013 16:26
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bewbies posted:I realize that internet is a bastion of blowhards when it comes to the draft but this kind of ex post facto stuff really irritates me. Fortunately, we're on a forum that has archives! I'd love to see your comments back in 2009 wherein you predict Gabbert's NFL future based off of this game you've chosen to analyze.
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Nov 1, 2013 17:36
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Time for your weekly reminder that both John Brantley and Jeff Driskell were 5* QBs.
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Nov 1, 2013 17:43
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I don't get the people saying "The draft is a crapshoot therefore you should NOT trade out of a high pick" It seems like you're arguing against yourself. If the draft is a crapshoot, you want as many rolls as possible (Jamarcus joke here). Yeah there are a few rare talents but I think people are just going "Oh of course Calvin Johnson could never have failed" in retrospect. There's plenty of people that are supposed to be awesome safe picks but are horrible. Aaron Curry. Robert Gallery. Yeah the Browns trade didn't work out but what if Oakland traded out of that #2 pick and took several shots instead of taking Gallery? Maybe they would have worked out and we'd be saying wow Oakland did something smart for once. I don't think you can point to single instances of trades like the Browns and say welp it didn't work out that means trading down is bad.
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Nov 1, 2013 17:48
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Basically draft picks have an expected value (which is somewhat close to the public chart but probably not quite right), and outside of very strange situations like "Andrew Luck" or guys like Aaron Hernandez or Alfonzo Dennard that are falling purely for high risk of being a violent felon, there is rarely a significant enough deviation from that expected value at the actual time of the pick, and thus it's "correct" to trade out when you get better than expected value and "incorrect" to do it just because.
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Nov 1, 2013 18:04
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Granted that Curry and Gallery both looked like can't fail prospects, but they both had their knocks coming out. Guys like Megatron really don't fail, and I can't remember the last Megatron quality prospect that didn't do well in the NFL. Sure it's easy to hindsight it but guys like Ryan Leaf and Tony Mandarich really weren't can't miss generational prospects. They turned into poster boys for red flags to watch out for. The only thing I can think of that might have made me wary of Calvin Johnson was Georgia Tech's triple threat offense, but that's about it.
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Nov 1, 2013 18:10
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