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Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

JawKnee posted:

I'm probably going to regret getting into this discussion, but why exactly? I've been using the transit system to get into Vancouver since grade 8 from loving Tsawwassen and it's always gotten me wherever I needed to go. Were you commuting from Langley or something?

I'm not saying it's not functional. But it is vastly more frustrating than using a car for most journeys: packed, infrequent buses are the norm. Even traversing Broadway at virtually any time of the week is a massive exercise in frustration compared to the same journey in a private vehicle, bad though the traffic may be.

Cities with really solid transit have the opposite property: it sucks way more to drive than to take transit. This is true in at least a handful of cities that I have high familiarity with: San Francisco, Montreal, NYC, Toronto, [real] London, and many dozens more around the world. I just don't think Vancouver rightly belongs in that group.

I fully acknowledge that there's likely a funding problem, and a geography problem, and a NIMBY problem, and a political-willpower problem, and Translink probably does alright given all that baggage... but it remains the case that I'm annoyed as a user of Vancouver's transit.

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HookShot
Dec 26, 2005
I don't live in a Translink area but whenever I go to Vancouver I always park my car and take public transit because I almost always find it easier/faster than driving, especially if I'm on a skytrain route. And I drive a Prius so it's more expensive for me to take public transit since a tank of gas lasts forever.

Eej
Jun 17, 2007

HEAVYARMS

Cultural Imperial posted:

oh come on

From my perspective, all that poo poo between salmon arm and osooyoos is kelowna~

No one's retiring to the Okanagan to enjoy the Penticton Vineyards, ok. Meth labs maybe.

I think the only time rich people actually head down into "the city" (oh god people there actually use this term) is to get on a plane or their yacht.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Eej posted:

No one's retiring to the Okanagan to enjoy the Penticton Vineyards, ok. Meth labs maybe.

I think the only time rich people actually head down into "the city" (oh god people there actually use this term) is to get on a plane or their yacht.

The one saving grace of being from Kelowna is that you are not from Penticton (Shelbyville) or Vernon (Ogdenville).

Also Naramata is not Penticton, even if it really looks like it should be.

On topic: Is the south Okanagan months of inventory numbers as bad as I have heard (~36 months)? On the surface that seems crazy, but I am inclined to not discount it.

Mrs. Wynand
Nov 23, 2002

DLT 4EVA

Lexicon posted:

This is an oddly-defensive, reductive, and possibly-revealing sentence.

Insofar as it is revealing, it is probably quite accurate. I'm a bitter IT worker tip-toeing on the verge of burnout (after which I'll just be hosed).

Mrs. Wynand
Nov 23, 2002

DLT 4EVA

Fuzzy Mammal posted:

Eh after growing up in Vancouver and living here for coming up on 10 years I have to disagree. Sure the boroughs suck, but so does living in Langley. Just compare these prices too. I even cross the lake each day and my commute is 25 minutes.

Yes but all the jobs aren't in Langley. Nor is Vancouver criss-crossed with highways to support all those Langley commuters. Do you live and work outside the city core? 25 minutes is very reasonable.

Mrs. Wynand
Nov 23, 2002

DLT 4EVA

Dusseldorf posted:

I haven't spent too much time in Vancouver but doesn't it only have a bare skeleton of a public transit system?

Goodness no, it is one of the main things it has going for it. I mean it's not the best or anything but it's up there, especially going by (the very low) North American standards. Translink as an organisation is pretty awesome, it just needs more funding :(

cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos
Relative to cities outside of Canada the transit in Vancouver sucks, but within Canada it's one of the best.

The westcoast express is great and the skytrain is pretty good with three lines . Bus system sucks hard.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
I've been kind of semi-following this thing since it's kind of in the vicinity that the folks have been looking.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/national/Court+approves+million+sale+Barrie+mansion+Langford/8968595/story.html

quote:

VICTORIA -- The sale of Len Barrie's luxurious Compass Pointe Place home in Langford for $4.4 million was approved in a Victoria courthouse on Thursday.

Buyers Gurmit Singh Uppal and his family also will pay $50,000 for personal property in the 12,500-square-foot mansion built in 2008 for Bear Mountain developer Barrie.

The successful bid was presented in the Supreme Court of B.C. on Thursday morning. It beat another bid presented to the receiver for the property. No name or amount was revealed for the other bidder.

With two offers on the table, negotiations took place outside the courtroom. The successful offer was presented to the court and accepted, with a $250,000 deposit. The sale price was $4,429,222. The process took just five minutes.

When HSBC Bank Canada foreclosed on Barrie, it was owed slightly more than $14 million, court was told.

Some revenue has since come in — the house was used as the setting for the Bachelor Canada television show last year — and the total owed is now $12 million, without interest, said Marcel Peerson, a lawyer acting for HSBC.

The sale will close in two weeks, he said. The buyers would not comment.

Once pegged at $13.9 million, the asking price for 2300 Compass Pointe Pl. dropped to $4.988 million this year.

Owned by Len and Kristy Barrie, it sold for a price close to the current assessed value of $4.49 million. The land is valued at slightly more than $1 million and the house at $3.45 million.

Barrie was the force behind the Bear Mountain development on Skirt Mountain in Langford, where residential and commercial properties have been built.

The former professional hockey player was the chief executive officer of Bear Mountain Partnership, which controlled Bear Mountain Projects.

HSBC, the partnership's largest creditor, took control of the resort with its two golf courses, a hotel and development land, in 2010. At that time, it was owed $250 million and the resort was in creditor protection.

Colliers International is marketing the resort.

Barrie relinquished his house keys to HSBC in early 2012, leaving his six-bedroom, 10-bathroom home, which boasts an 1,800-square-foot master suite. Features include a swimming pool, an outdoor basketball court, fire pits, four dishwashers, Swarovski crystal knobs in the master bedroom, travertine floors, a wine cellar, a home theatre, a putting green and floor-to-ceiling windows in main rooms.

It has views of the Juan de Fuca Strait and the Olympic Mountains.

Scott Piercy, who had the listing with Jim LeBlanc at Sotheby's International Realty Canada, said: "There are definitely investors out there. It is good for the market."

The sale shows confidence in the Langford market, he said. Many of the capital region's multimillion-dollar homes are on waterfront sites in Oak Bay and North Saanich. Although it is not on the waterfront, the Compass Pointe house has "views like nowhere else," Piercy said.

This is one of the highest prices paid for a Greater Victoria house this year. Villa Madrona in North Saanich sold for $6.6 million.

cjwilson@timescolonist.com



Read more: http://www.timescolonist.com/Court+approves+million+sale+Barrie+mansion+Vancouver+Island/8968595/story.html#ixzz2jMQpd3R6

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
You gotta be loving stupid to pay 4 mil for that.

It's loving LANGFORD. Home of famous rappers moka only and prevail.

The Goon
Sep 11, 2001

Well thread, I just closed on the sale of my Ottawa condo, and used the proceeds to wipe out 90% of my debt. Did I do good? Oh god, did I?

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

The Goon posted:

Well thread, I just closed on the sale of my Ottawa condo, and used the proceeds to wipe out 90% of my debt. Did I do good? Oh god, did I?

gently caress yes (congratulations!). Ottawa's housing market inventory is going through the proverbial roof.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Cultural Imperial posted:

gently caress yes (congratulations!). Ottawa's housing market inventory is going through the proverbial roof.

Use the money to move to the promised land (aka Vancouver)

The Goon
Sep 11, 2001

etalian posted:

Use the money to move to the promised land (aka Vancouver)

Ha, no. Like I said, every dollar is going to a massive debt-relief payoff. Once it goes through i'll be the closest to debt-free that i've been in literally a decade, with 100% debt free in a few months.

It's funny, there's a part of me that still feels like i'm "missing out on hot investment" by having sold off the condo, and I feel somehow less...an adult now. The ingrained American dream of ownership is hard to shake off.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

The Goon posted:

Ha, no. Like I said, every dollar is going to a massive debt-relief payoff. Once it goes through i'll be the closest to debt-free that i've been in literally a decade, with 100% debt free in a few months.

It's funny, there's a part of me that still feels like i'm "missing out on hot investment" by having sold off the condo, and I feel somehow less...an adult now. The ingrained American dream of ownership is hard to shake off.

I know what you mean, I sold my house too this year and am now debt free.

Mrs. Wynand
Nov 23, 2002

DLT 4EVA

The Goon posted:

Well thread, I just closed on the sale of my Ottawa condo, and used the proceeds to wipe out 90% of my debt. Did I do good? Oh god, did I?

You done great. Go rent something nice and buy something even nicer a few years from now.

ductonius
Apr 9, 2007
I heard there's a cream for that...

The Goon posted:

Well thread, I just closed on the sale of my Ottawa condo, and used the proceeds to wipe out 90% of my debt. Did I do good? Oh god, did I?

Good god I did this with my house in Prince-loving-George in 2010 and I know exactly how you feel. One moment it's raining, you're under a rock and drowning in mud. One buyer's signature later, and the rock is gone, the rain is gone and the mud has turned to brandy wine.

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

Lexicon posted:

I'm not saying it's not functional. But it is vastly more frustrating than using a car for most journeys: packed, infrequent buses are the norm. Even traversing Broadway at virtually any time of the week is a massive exercise in frustration compared to the same journey in a private vehicle, bad though the traffic may be.

Cities with really solid transit have the opposite property: it sucks way more to drive than to take transit. This is true in at least a handful of cities that I have high familiarity with: San Francisco, Montreal, NYC, Toronto, [real] London, and many dozens more around the world. I just don't think Vancouver rightly belongs in that group.

I used to live on the west side of Vancouver right on Broadway (owned a condo, didn't own a car) and live in SF now. Public transit in Vancouver was actually pretty great except for the lack of buses/Skytrain late at night. I guess the coverage and frequency of public transit in SF is marginally better but it's way more complicated and sketchy and generally unpleasant. And it certainly does suck to drive in SF but that's not related to public transit here -- there's simply no parking, the parking that does exist is obscenely expensive, and the roads are way too congested.

For what it's worth, even though SF is awesome in a lot of ways and my earning potential is like 2-2.5x what it is in Vancouver, I'd far prefer to live in Vancouver.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

blah_blah posted:

I used to live on the west side of Vancouver right on Broadway (owned a condo, didn't own a car) and live in SF now. Public transit in Vancouver was actually pretty great except for the lack of buses/Skytrain late at night. I guess the coverage and frequency of public transit in SF is marginally better but it's way more complicated and sketchy and generally unpleasant. And it certainly does suck to drive in SF but that's not related to public transit here -- there's simply no parking, the parking that does exist is obscenely expensive, and the roads are way too congested.

For what it's worth, even though SF is awesome in a lot of ways and my earning potential is like 2-2.5x what it is in Vancouver, I'd far prefer to live in Vancouver.

Somewhat off topic but in terms of ridership the Bay Area is number #2 for the US. Was a somewhat surprising statistic since I figured places like Chicago or Boston would be higher up on the list.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

etalian posted:

Somewhat off topic but in terms of ridership the Bay Area is number #2 for the US. Was a somewhat surprising statistic since I figured places like Chicago or Boston would be higher up on the list.

Where'd you find that at? The % ridership vs overall number distinctions would be interesting, especially when you look at different modes of transit (like regular buses which barely even count as mass transit).

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

blah_blah posted:

For what it's worth, even though SF is awesome in a lot of ways and my earning potential is like 2-2.5x what it is in Vancouver, I'd far prefer to live in Vancouver.

Really? I'm an ex-resident of both, and I consider SF superior to Vancouver along virtually every dimension I can think of, other than 'access to cheap sushi' perhaps.

Parking is truly horrendous though, I'll give you that. But you need your head examined if you own a car there.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

I had a friend live there for just a year doing some game-dev stuff. He loved the city-proper and his job payed crazy good but housing in the city was super expensive and his actual office was way the gently caress out where there wasn't any transit. The office had some little mini-bus that would pick people up but it was still a poo poo situation overall.

But man have tech companies gotten all over this and realized no one wants to live and work way out in gross suburban "tech parks" so there's this boom of companies moving back into the city because that's where their workers want to live. Seattle is going nuts with this and is having a condo boom based on downtown jobs. Hell even little Victoria just got a downtown microsoft games office. Apparently they looked all over the region and found downtown vancouver too expensive, suburban vancouver too gross, but downtown Victoria just right. There's actually a surprising amount of tech stuff moving into Victoria's core. Apparently tech is now bigger than tourism. Of course the city seems to be doing everything it can to stifle construction in the city...

Been a few big development players from Vancouver try to move into the Victoria market and then retreat in utter frustration. No one does insane red-tape and micro-management like Victoria does. You have to be a pretty dedicated to actually try to build something here.

-The zoning is hosed and has barely changed since the 60's when the city had a stated goal of de-populating downtown and making it more suburban via harsh FSR, height and setback bylaws. So basically every single building needs a re-zoning or variance, which means public hearing.

-Victoria has some of the strongest "neighbourhood associations" which are of course invariably a group of retired busy-bodies with nothing but free time to try to block or micro-manage every project in the city even if it's not in their neighbourhood and love to pretend they speak for the whole population because of the 5000 people living in their district 80 are members of the community association and those 50 of those bothered to vote in 5 angry old people. So before a project even gets to city hall it generally has to pass the local community association.

-If the project isn't killed by a lack of community rear end. blessing or the developer is brave enough to continue without it it then gets reviewed by planning, which seem to recommend for or against projects based on reading goat entrails. They can make a big fuss about how we need more rentals downtown, more in-fill, and how they support parking-free projects then reject projects that match those criteria without any solid reasons.

-If after jumping through a million hoops, paying your architect an extra 100k or so in constant re-designs and tweaks because the tasteless community association thought your roof line was too modern so you add a gross pitched roof but then planning said the roof was too tall so you reduced the pitch and lowered the floor ceiling heights a little but then the community association says you're an evil greedy liar who promised 10' ceilings and are now trying to force people to live in 8'6" rabbit hutches and suddenly they think despite being a modern building faux-shutters would look "nice" by the windows and they suddenly refuse to support the project unless you re-design again. After all that (which still paying interest on your lot that's been sitting there for a year while you do this) you manage to get to council you get a delightful crowd of NIMBY regulars who come to every single meeting to protest every single development even if it's not remotely close to their neighbourhood. Then you get a "socialist" council who will ramble on and on about housing prices and affordability and rentals then hem and haw and say every single project is too big or adds too many units or the units are too expensive or the units are too small maybe remove a couple floors, add more units, make the units bigger and cheaper, and make the architect more sensitive and respectful to local heritage and come back in 3 months.

God drat I hate this city.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Lexicon posted:

Really? I'm an ex-resident of both, and I consider SF superior to Vancouver along virtually every dimension I can think of, other than 'access to cheap sushi' perhaps.

Parking is truly horrendous though, I'll give you that. But you need your head examined if you own a car there.

Well imagine Vancouver also dodged the SF tech boom which had the amusing demographic side of effect of having more guys than gals.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.


I have a real soft spot for Victoria - used to live there and love visiting to this day - but goddamn does it ever have a lot of parochial, provincial tendencies. None of that surprises me.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Lexicon posted:

^ I have a real soft spot for Victoria - used to live there and love visiting to this day - but goddamn does it ever have a lot of parochial, provincial tendencies. None of that surprises me.

SF has similar problems with predictable rent price craziness and the NIMBY attitude towards new development, not having enough rental supply has predictable results.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

etalian posted:

Well imagine Vancouver also dodged the SF tech boom which had the amusing demographic side of effect of having more guys than gals.

Having a hard time parsing this sentence.

But yes, there is a gender imbalance in SF, which is definitely a strike against it.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

etalian posted:

SF has similar problems with predictable rent price craziness and the NIMBY attitude towards new development, not having enough rental supply has predictable results.

Indeed. I paid well over $1300 a month for half an apartment back then... and my understanding is that it has only gotten more and more expensive. High salaries though, of course.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

To get back on topic for the bubble areas is it pretty much the lack of new rental supply driving things so that home debtorship makes more sense?

Also fun little graphic:
http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/housing-canada/

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Where did this whole idea of "Housing prices are going up! Rents are too high! BLOCK ALL NEW CONSTRUCTION!!" come from. It's like they think it's the new units that are raising prices rather than the economic forces that are making the new units profitable to build ?

I hear this a lot, specially from my more ignorant of city planning/economic socialist/hippie friends. They'll go out and protest condos and housing because "We need housing for the poor not rich!" or "Prices are already too high we don't need more!!". When I try to explain to them that all these new condos are awesome because they're basically being subsidized by rich idiots and in 15-20 years will be fairly affordable, plus said rich idiots moving into "luxury" condos frees up other units. But they don't buy it, anything a rich person likes is bad and needs to be stopped.

Like if this were communism and a central planning body was over-building "luxury" units and ignoring the working class that would be one thing, but these are private developers building what's in demand and what will actually make them a profit and it's impossible to make a profit in the current climate on "affordable" housing unless there's government intervention.

But yeah, keep trying to stop every new project and keep complaining about housing prices guys.

Personally I want them to over-build condos to ridiculous extremes, have rich idiots pay for it all, then after the bubble pops or lands or what ever, hey, we've got a ton of fairly affordable housing stock! Isn't rich people subsidizing poo poo for everyone else a pretty social-democratic idea? Recently a 750k condo (when built a few years ago) sold for under 500k. A building from just 3 years ago had it's penthouse go for 300k when it first sold for 450k. The high-end is already seeing some pretty major reductions and the middle-upper is already seeing similar trends. Do people not understand the housing cycle or basic economics?

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Baronjutter posted:

Personally I want them to over-build condos to ridiculous extremes, have rich idiots pay for it all, then after the bubble pops or lands or what ever, hey, we've got a ton of fairly affordable housing stock! Isn't rich people subsidizing poo poo for everyone else a pretty social-democratic idea? Recently a 750k condo (when built a few years ago) sold for under 500k. A building from just 3 years ago had it's penthouse go for 300k when it first sold for 450k. The high-end is already seeing some pretty major reductions and the middle-upper is already seeing similar trends. Do people not understand the housing cycle or basic economics?

It's a somewhat horrible way to build affordable housing given all the dangerous entanglements created by home ownership and getting the government to underwrite private real estate debts.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
Residential housing in the Anglo-world *is* essentially communist central planning. Remember how the Federal Reserve(through their guarantees to FNMA and such) owns >50% of all residential mortgages in the US? What's the percentage of Canadian mortgages that are CMHC insured? When you get a very low ratio mortgage from an institution that is backed in many ways by the sovereign like Canadian banks are, it's essentially the government giving you a free house.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Throatwarbler posted:

Residential housing in the Anglo-world *is* essentially communist central planning. Remember how the Federal Reserve(through their guarantees to FNMA and such) owns >50% of all residential mortgages in the US? What's the percentage of Canadian mortgages that are CMHC insured? When you get a very low ratio mortgage from an institution that is backed in many ways by the sovereign like Canadian banks are, it's essentially the government giving you a free house.

yeah pretty much in the US you wouldn't have things such as 30 year fixed rate mortgages if wasn't for the government subsidizing private home debtorship.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Throatwarbler posted:

Residential housing in the Anglo-world *is* essentially communist central planning. Remember how the Federal Reserve(through their guarantees to FNMA and such) owns >50% of all residential mortgages in the US? What's the percentage of Canadian mortgages that are CMHC insured? When you get a very low ratio mortgage from an institution that is backed in many ways by the sovereign like Canadian banks are, it's essentially the government giving you a free house.

That's exactly true. Also if your strategy for affordable housing is "let a bubble create a bunch of housing then it will become affordable after the crash" you're hosed. But regardless of the problems or solutions, fighting every single condo tower or town-house or urban in-fill no taller than its neighbours is counter-productive.

I'd love t see the CMHC die, the government completely pull out of both subsidizing mortgages/home ownership and favouring infrastructure that supports sprawl (which leads to artificially cheap houses today but disastrous upkeep costs tomorrow) while at the same time the government getting heavily involved in affordable housing. Not through "incentives" and complex tax breaks but just directly building and managing poo poo or at least directly funding non-profits that have proven track-records at efficiently building and maintaining affordable housing.

Also I think that german idea of skipping developers all together by providing cheap subsidized and zoned land for people to work together to build their own housing is awesome and we need the legal/political framework to support it. It's been wildly successful in Germany and brings housing costs down by about 20-30% which is HUGE, and you end up with much better buildings as well. I'm not a legal or financial person but based on my understanding this is how it works:

-A city will zone an area for this type of development, which lifts a lot of restrictions and red tape because they're no longer dealing with greedy lovely developers but just locals in the community. The land is reserved for this type of development. This step doesn't always have to happen, this type of funding works on any land.

-Because there's an established legal and financial framework, it's very easy for people from the community to start a project and pool their money. A group of people might decide they have an idea to build a 20 unit condo on a lot, so they put the word out and find 20 people who meet and hash out what they want and what they can afford. Once everyone's more or less in agreement they officially start the project.

-They pool their funds together, hire an experienced project manager that knows this type of funding well and they design their building with everyone having input. Since everyone is designing this to live in, not flip or make money it strongly tends to result in higher-quality buildings built with the long-term in mind. Better construction, better energy/heating efficiency, stuff like that. Everyone's got a normal construction mortgage now for their yet to be built unit and it's easy to get since the banks are totally used to and supportive of this type of development.

-The thing gets built, everyone is happy. By avoiding tons of soft-costs like marketing and legal everyone gets a unit 20% cheaper than if a developer was involved.

-Local development companies cry that the city is unfairly cutting them out but everyone tells them to go gently caress them selves because this way results in higher quality buildings for cheaper and happier residents.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

If you are talking about the Vienna model it mainly works because the city owns a majority of land in the city, which gives the muni government a pretty strong bargaining position to motivate private developers.

It also depends heavily on federal level subsidies for keeping the overall cost down.

Either way it would be better if government housing policy would focus on affordability not american style casino appreciation above all else.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

No it's nothing like the Vienna model. It's a way of funding actual developments, not city-owned rentals. It's basically just people skiping the middle-man of a developer and building buildings them selves and it being made easy because there's the legal framework to make it simple for the people involved plus the banks are also down with it too.

So instead of a developer buying land, building a condo, marketing it and selling the units to people who then take over ownership of the building via a condo council or what ever the developer is skipped entirely and the people set up a council first to build the building them selves. God drat I can't find what it's called, some stupid-long german word. Was reading some great articles on it a while ago.

Ah ha!
http://bruteforcecollaborative.com/wordpress/2012/04/16/a-new-approach-to-affordable-urban-living/
http://grist.org/cities/i-want-to-live-in-a-baugruppe/

Private Baugruppe
German wiki http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bautr%C3%A4ger#private_Baugruppe

Cut out developers, save 20%, get better quality buildings. Seems like a way better way to finance most residential construction.

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 19:17 on Nov 1, 2013

Mrs. Wynand
Nov 23, 2002

DLT 4EVA

etalian posted:

If you are talking about the Vienna model it mainly works because the city owns a majority of land in the city, which gives the muni government a pretty strong bargaining position to motivate private developers.

It's all The Crown's land baby, you're just leasing it from Her Majesty.

It really would be very interesting if a city tried to appropriate land for such purposes and basically leased it out for free to its current owners for a set term as compensation, but enforcing these new housing development rules.

leftist heap
Feb 28, 2013

Fun Shoe
Baronjutter have you paid any attention to the opposition to the Cedar Hill clay tennis courts? It's a pretty hilarious example of the NIMBYism in Victoria that you describe. It's pretty funny to see a small group of people fight so hard to save two dismal gravel softball fields that nobody ever uses because... tennis is for rich people I guess.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Who's bright idea was it to make FIRE 30% of Canada's GDP?

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Who's bright idea was it to make FIRE 30% of Canada's GDP?

This is the single most terrifying fact about the country's economy to me right now.

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namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2013/11/bc-foreclosure-update.html

From the internet.

quote:

At the end of the first month of daily data. Vancouver stayed running at a fairly steady pace of six filings per working day. So big picture, what is going on with British Columbia foreclosures? First, I think one needs to understand the data. Courts aren’t located in every municipality, so “New Westminster” foreclosures probably include Port Moody or Coquitlam, while “Nanaimo” might include Qualicum Beach etc. That being said we can get a pretty good look at what is going on regionally.

The basic situation is that the periphery is doing worse than the big city. If I annualize the data by population, the Lower Mainland as a whole is running at about 0.7 annual foreclosures per 1000 population. That compares to Vancouver Island with a run-rate of 1.3 foreclosures/1000 pop; Okanagan at 1.8 foreclosures/1000 pop; and Kootenays and North maybe running 2-3 foreclosures/1000 pop with those last two regions most susceptible to problems in counting and defining the right regional population number.

Turning to lenders, I think the basic model of all the banks, roughly in proportion to retail market share, is to write any old mortgage at any old level to someone that can be covered by CMHC/Genworth wrappers. There is no bank that seems to be extra careful … Royal’s share this month is a bit lower than I would have expected, CIBC’s a little higher. The specialty mortgage co’s are active across the province and must be punching much higher than their weight in terms of foreclosure volumes to mortgage assets. Credit unions, whom I thought might be the loosest lenders of the bunch, seem to be there in about expected market share.

We clearly are not in a meltdown. I’d be interested if other readers have the data on what the foreclosure numbers per 1000 pop got to in various US states. However, we have a good sense of the base. This data series will probably spike at some point, maybe beginning next month, maybe beginning in 3 years, I can’t say. Like others, I’ve been surprised at how well prices have held up and how few foreclosures have occurred to this point. However, I suspect that 20-40% of current “homeowners” would be in serious trouble at either in a 5% interest rate environment or in a material recession regardless of the rate picture.

As there is a little repetition in the daily numbers, going forward I will share the data weekly.

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