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Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe

oohhboy posted:

The one good thing you can take away from this is that they have been caught and action is being taken against this sort of behaviour. Something in the system is still working properly compared to say the US where things are openly and legally corrupt. Or they are really bad at it. It's absurd such an explanation would be enough to pacify the questions raised.
You're pretty optimistic. Government rarely works out the way you would hope. Still, Hong Kong's government is really young and things have turned out okay in the past. Like Article 23 or National Education. And this being TV, it's pissed off people way way way beyond the typical political activists. Even the average Joes and the illiterate old people get mad about TV.

oohhboy posted:

I almost never watch the TVB while I am in HK except maybe some news since it really is terrible.
Fixed for you. There isn't anything besides TVB. Really. ATV stopped making dramas a decade ago. That's one of the reasons why it's dumb as hell for anyone to suggest that any station other than ATV would be the one to go. TVB has been operating with complete impunity for a billion years now, which lets them remake the same five dramas every season with the same ten actors. They don't even bother to change costumes or hairstyles anymore.

And in case some of you are doubting the significance of little bitty Hong Kong's TV situation, Hong Kong remains a cultural juggernaut in the Chinese world. TVB shows get broadcast throughout south China, Taiwan, and the massive overseas Chinese community. That's another one of the many reasons why that Chua guy's editorial is super bullshit. Even if Hong Kong's advertising revenue is limited, revenues from the wider Hong Kong TV-consuming audience is not. TVB is an epic money-sucking vacuum that has enabled arch-lich Run Run Shaw to prolong his life well beyond normal human limits by distilling cash into the Water of Life. I always insist on reminding people, the man lived through the reigns of two Chinese emperors.

oohhboy posted:

It as 27 Views now, yep, that is a video of someone making GBS threads their pants. Not all bad.

I'll never get tired of CY's smile right there. That's his "god I hate being the Chief Executive right now" smile. We've been seeing it a lot lately.

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Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe
Let's have some late night pictures of Sir Run Run Shaw









Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
Holy balls that IS Lo Pan. Does the girl on the left have green eyes?

(I am amused, not because he fits a stereotype from a (westernized) martial arts movie, but that a Shaw of Shaw Brothers does so. Fitting somehow.)

He does appear to be having fun with his life.

oohhboy
Jun 8, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
I love how his date of birth is an approximation.

Yeah, I guess I am optimistic about HK at least on the surface of things with the regular protests and marches especially when the mainland makes an open run at the government/people. It also helps none of the Chief Executives so far have been liked as far as I know. As long as they keep pushing back, I remain optimistic.

That said, I don't go back or know enough to consider myself informed on local matters to any real degree. I did manage piss off the relatives I was staying with last time I was there because of cultural misunderstandings. So I appreciate any corrections you or others might make.

hong kong divorce lunch
Sep 20, 2005
"Five operating stations will lead to vicious competition" is what I heard the government say. No poo poo assholes. I wonder if they even bother to proof read or if they just assume everybody is dumb as a pile of rocks.

V for Vegas
Sep 1, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

V for Vegas posted:

Had to lol at the line that HKTV will run out of television to broadcast in two months!

OK I've been given context for this. HKTV as part of its bid had to produce x hours of local HK television as part of the licence conditions and that is what it had done. But it had also green-lit a lot of pilots that were ready to start production once the licence was granted. A lot of people were brought on by the station who have now been let go because the expected work is in limbo.

Pretty lovely to shut them down after they did so much to meet the requirements.

Electro-Boogie Jack
Nov 22, 2006
bagger mcguirk sent me.

Wow, another bombing? This time in Shanxi at CCP HQ if Boxun/Twitter are to be believed: http://www.boxun.com/news/gb/china/2013/11/201311060916.shtml#.UnmnGeWj_uY

Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe

V for Vegas posted:

OK I've been given context for this. HKTV as part of its bid had to produce x hours of local HK television as part of the licence conditions and that is what it had done. But it had also green-lit a lot of pilots that were ready to start production once the licence was granted. A lot of people were brought on by the station who have now been let go because the expected work is in limbo.

Pretty lovely to shut them down after they did so much to meet the requirements.

For double hilarity, the other two stations, the ones that did get licenses, have produced gently caress all.

WarpedNaba
Feb 8, 2012

Being social makes me swell!

Electro-Boogie Jack posted:

Wow, another bombing? This time in Shanxi at CCP HQ if Boxun/Twitter are to be believed: http://www.boxun.com/news/gb/china/2013/11/201311060916.shtml#.UnmnGeWj_uY

I can imagine that there's poo poo all news exported about these attacks, but how many attacks have occurred this year? How are they increasing over the past decade?

Koramei
Nov 11, 2011

I have three regrets
The first is to be born in Joseon.
How shady exactly is the apartment flipping, and how common is it in China among westerners? My friend's dad (my friend is adopted-Chinese with white parents) paid for a semester of her tuition ...in cash... from a Chinese apartment he sold. We're a bit confused, is this like, the way it's done, or is he just being extremely weird/ illegal.

Pro-PRC Laowai
Sep 30, 2004

by toby

Koramei posted:

How shady exactly is the apartment flipping, and how common is it in China among westerners? My friend's dad (my friend is adopted-Chinese with white parents) paid for a semester of her tuition ...in cash... from a Chinese apartment he sold. We're a bit confused, is this like, the way it's done, or is he just being extremely weird/ illegal.

What's weird about that?

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

Koramei posted:

How shady exactly is the apartment flipping, and how common is it in China among westerners? My friend's dad (my friend is adopted-Chinese with white parents) paid for a semester of her tuition ...in cash... from a Chinese apartment he sold. We're a bit confused, is this like, the way it's done, or is he just being extremely weird/ illegal.

Why do you assume it's illegal to sell an apartment? I don't understand what you're thinking.

Grand Fromage
Jan 30, 2006

L-l-look at you bar-bartender, a-a pa-pathetic creature of meat and bone, un-underestimating my l-l-liver's ability to metab-meTABolize t-toxins. How can you p-poison a perfect, immortal alcohOLIC?


Paying tuition with a pile of cash is pretty weird from an American perspective, but remember this is East Asia and paying for things with enormous wads of cash is normal here. It's not drug money, it's just Chinese.

Arakan
May 10, 2008

After some persuasion, Fluttershy finally opens up, and Twilight's more than happy to oblige in doing her best performance as a nice, obedient wolf-puppy.
Yea how are you going to avoid income taxes if you don't use cash man?

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich
I once saw a Chinese-American friend of mine have his parents roll up to a car dealership and pay for a new car in cash. The salesman basically lost it. It was hilarious.

Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe
It's just sooo much better in China where the largest denomination is worth like $16. Need to buy something worth 60 grand? Enjoy that heap of nearly 4000 bills.

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

That sort of thing is probably more dangerous in the US though. Remember that story about the guy who was going to buy a truck in cash and had tens of thousands of dollars confiscated by the police with no recourse because they assumed it was drug money?

Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe
No I do not. I assume he got his money back eventually?

V for Vegas
Sep 1, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Bloodnose posted:

It's just sooo much better in China where the largest denomination is worth like $16. Need to buy something worth 60 grand? Enjoy that heap of nearly 4000 bills.

Or getting change of 1 fen coin. What the hell do you do with those?

Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe
Swallow them as a TCM remedy.

Simulated
Sep 28, 2001
Lowtax giveth, and Lowtax taketh away.
College Slice

Bloodnose posted:

No I do not. I assume he got his money back eventually?

Nope. They're using ex parte lawsuits in a... "novel" way where the government sues the property in lieu of a person (U.S. v $10,000 in currency). In common law historically, this was only used when the owner of the property could not be determined and notice of the suit would be posted to attempt to notify the property owner; in modern times they'd sue John Doe #1. You present positive proof the property is yours and you get it back. The key is that the burden of proof is on you, not the state and it uses the lower "preponderance of the evidence" standard, allowing them to take property without actually proving you're guilty of a crime. Its all a very gray area and to my knowledge US law and SCOTUS are silent on the topic since anytime someone gets a good lawyer they cave and return the property to avoid scrutiny.

As with much of the hosed up bullshit in the US justice system, it comes down to the war on drugs.

Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe
Yeah that's civil forfeiture, which I'm familiar with. But why wouldn't someone with so much money sue to get it back? The point of civil forfeiture is that it's usually used against the proceeds of criminal activity, in which case of course you don't want that stuff scrutinized, or it's used against people who can't afford to sue to get it back, in more despicable cases.

edit: We also don't have civil forfeiture in Hong Kong. :whatup: Although Chief Prosecutor Kevin Zervos is always pushing for it. I WONDER WHY.

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

I can't find any news articles about it anymore, but I vaguely remember there was some bullshit preventing him from suing to get it back. This sounds wrong but for some reason I'm remembering that the way it was set up, the money would have had to sue and the guy couldn't?

iceaim
May 20, 2001

Ender.uNF posted:

Its all a very gray area and to my knowledge US law and SCOTUS are silent on the topic since anytime someone gets a good lawyer they cave and return the property to avoid scrutiny.

Can you provide a reference to any cases where someone gets a good lawyer and has their property returned promptly? Because this hasn't been my experience with civil forfeiture.

If you had under $100k worth of property seized, your legal fees will probably end up costing more than the property seized is worth.

iceaim fucked around with this message at 06:44 on Nov 7, 2013

Simulated
Sep 28, 2001
Lowtax giveth, and Lowtax taketh away.
College Slice

iceaim posted:

Can you provide a reference to any cases where someone gets a good lawyer and has their property returned promptly? Because this hasn't been my experience with civil forfeiture.

If you had under $100k worth of property seized, your legal fees will probably end up costing more than the property seized is worth.

Not to derail, but I worded that poorly… for anyone well-connected or in a case that risks too much negative publicity for local prosecutors is dropped. The feds don't give a poo poo so the only way out in that case is to be well-connected. I believe there have been one or two cases (sorry don't have the citations handy) where an outside party funded the case and it was quickly dropped because they really, really don't want anyone shedding any light on this issue, or God-forbid an actual SCOTUS ruling upholding the constitution and shutting down the money machine.



To be on-topic, I assume the Chinese property market is still overheating like crazy. Has there been any talk of allowing foreign investments or giving people other ways to save?

Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe
SCMP posted a cool interactive timeline showing major events in their 110-year history. Scroll through it and get Babby's First History of 20th-21st century Hong Kong.

Arakan
May 10, 2008

After some persuasion, Fluttershy finally opens up, and Twilight's more than happy to oblige in doing her best performance as a nice, obedient wolf-puppy.

Bloodnose posted:

SCMP posted a cool interactive timeline showing major events in their 110-year history. Scroll through it and get Babby's First History of 20th-21st century Hong Kong.

2010: The SCMP launches its iPad app

Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe
The earth quaked and Typhoon Megi trembled before the mighty significance of said app.

Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe

oops

Paper Mac
Mar 2, 2007

lives in a paper shack

That guy in front of the screen in the back appears to be emanating paper.

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

Love this quote

NYT posted:

“Nothing in China happens overnight,” Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, the director of Asia-Pacific programs at the United States Institute of Peace, said. “Any move you see was planned and prepared for years, if not more.

since China's South China Sea policy has been such a clusterfuck with competing interests within the Chinese government. And since you know most Chinese agencies couldn't plan their way out of a 2-star hotel.

WarpedNaba
Feb 8, 2012

Being social makes me swell!
I can sorta believe that. If it's been planned for years, so have the other 200 or so plans by competing internal agencies.

VideoTapir
Oct 18, 2005

He'll tire eventually.
No, it was SCHEDULED months or years in advance. That doesn't mean any actual planning was done.

edit: Gah, whenever I live outside the US for a while, I start wondering if I'm just making typos, or if my English is really slipping.

VideoTapir fucked around with this message at 02:38 on Nov 11, 2013

Sheep
Jul 24, 2003

VideoTapir posted:

No, it was SCHEDULED months or years in advanced. That doesn't mean any actual planning was done.

It may have been scheduled years in advance, but nobody was told until the day before.

LP97S
Apr 25, 2008

WarpedNaba posted:

I can sorta believe that. If it's been planned for years, so have the other 200 or so plans by competing internal agencies.

Judging by South Seas I think one plan is just a guy in the back saying "Okay, what if this is all a dream?".

Beefeater1980
Sep 12, 2008

My God, it's full of Horatios!






CIGNX posted:

You're mistaking dollars for dollar-denominated assets. When China intervenes in the RMB exchange rate or gets a trade surplus with the US, it certainly gets a lot of US dollars "in cash." But nothing mandates them to use those US dollars to only buy USD-denominated assets, let alone US Treasuries. They can easily swap those USDs for other currencies if they wished to in the open market. To put this in another way, the trade surplus and RMB interventions explain why China's foreign reserves in general are large. However, trade surpluses with the US or semi-pegging the RMB to the USD don't explain why the reserves are primarily US assets, specifically US Treasuries. China can just swap the currencies before buying the assets. Instead, the reason China has so many US Treasuries is the coincidental combination of three characteristics unique to US Treasuries; 1) they are perceived to be extraordinarily safe, 2) they are one of the most abundant financial assets in the world, and 3) they are widely accepted and used, thus very liquid (to a point).

So going back to why China can't dump its reserves, we have to remember that there is an intermediate step between having a foreign-currency-denominated asset and dumping said foreign currency: you need to convert the asset into cash, so to speak. That intermediate step of cashing in an asset is where China's problem lies. The act of selling off an asset lowers is price because the usual supply-and-demand laws apply. The trick with bonds/central bank bills is that the price and interest rate are inversely related (this relationship of supply-price-interest is how the Fed influences interest rates). In the case of US Treasuries, lowering the price of a Treasury increases the effective interest rate of the Treasury. If China were to dump a significant fraction of its US Treasuries on the secondary markets, supply would increase, prices would drop, and interest rates would skyrocket. Suddenly, you have a financial panic on your hands because 1) the asset portfolio of all central banks and all banks just took major losses due to the price drop, and 2) the sharp interest rate increase would cause large-scale credit failure.

If China's ~$3 trillion reserves was mostly cash, the argument that "they're afraid of negative effects on their export/manufacturing sector" would make sense. Even when we realize that the reserves are mostly assets, this argument is still sorta of true in theory. However, the more immediate and more significant consequence for China is the global financial panic and the lost value of the remainder of their foreign reserves.

I just wanted to call this out as a beautiful description of the yield curve. This was a really good post.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/12/us-china-reform-idUSBRE9AA0YB20131112

Well, this _looks_ important, but what does it mean?

quote:

China's ruling party pledged to let markets play a "decisive" role in allocating resources as it unveiled a reform agenda for the next decade on Tuesday, looking to overhaul the world's second-largest economy to drive future growth.

China aims to achieve "decisive results" in its reform push by 2020, with economic changes a central focus of overall reforms, the ruling Communist Party said in a communiqué released by state media at the end of a four-day closed-door meeting of the party's 205-member Central Committee.

"The core issue is to straighten out the relationship between government and the market, allowing the market to play a decisive role in allocating resources and improving the government's role," the party said in its statement.

It added that it would set up a central leading team for "comprehensively deepening reform," responsible for "designing reform on an overall basis, arranging and co-ordinating reform, pushing forward reform as a whole, and supervising the implementation of reform plans".

In previous policy statements, the Communist Party had often described markets as playing a "basic" role in allocating resources, Xinhua news agency said, meaning the new language amounts to an upgrading of its role in the party philosophy.

"They are looking to break away from government control, allowing the markets to take the lead. In the past, prices and investment decisions were predominantly made by the government," said Dong Tao, Asia ex-Japan chief regional economist with Credit Suisse in Hong Kong.

"This is a revolutionary philosophy, by Chinese standards."

CAUTIOUS ON STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES

Still, the party did not issue any bold reform plans for the country's state-owned enterprises (SOEs), saying that while both state firms and the private sector were important and it would encourage private enterprise, the dominance of the "public sector" in the economy would be maintained.

While the statement was short on details, it is expected to kick off specific measures by state agencies over the coming years to reduce the role of the state in the economy.

Historically, such third plenary sessions of a newly installed Central Committee have acted as a springboard for key economic reforms, and this one will also serve as a first test of the new leadership's commitment to reform.

Among the issues singled out for reform, the party said it would work to deepen fiscal and tax reform, establish a unified land market in cities and the countryside, set up a sustainable social security system, and give farmers more property rights - all seen as necessary for putting the world's second-largest economy on a more sustainable footing.

President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang must unleash new growth drivers as the economy, after three decades of breakneck expansion, begins to sputter, burdened by industrial overcapacity, piles of debt and eroding competitiveness.

Out of a long list of areas that the meeting was expected to tackle, most analysts have singled out a push towards a greater role of markets in the financial sector and reforms to public finances as those most likely to get immediate attention.

As part of that, Beijing is expected to push forward with capital account convertibility, and the 2020 target date for making significant strides on reform could set off expectations that the government will be looking to achieve breakthroughs on freeing up the closely managed yuan by then.

Few China watchers had expected Xi and Li to take on powerful state monopolies, judging that the political costs of doing so were just too high. Many economists argue that other reforms will have only limited success if the big state-owned firms' stranglehold on key markets and financing is not tackled.

But instead, the focus will be on indirect steps to limit the power of state behemoths and open up space for nimbler, private and foreign rivals - opening up key markets to private and foreign investment and deregulation tested in free trade zones.

Some reforms could face stiff resistance from powerful interest groups such as local governments or state-owned monopolies, people involved in reform discussions have said.

pentyne
Nov 7, 2012

There are a lot of words about promising changes to be taken in the future and new policies but is it really something they plan to do or just empty words to boost economic confidence?

ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro
http://news.yahoo.com/volcano-raises-island-far-south-japan-054228644.html

quote:

Volcano raises new island far south of Japan

China, get on this.

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V for Vegas
Sep 1, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER
If anyone is interested in the intersection of chinese and english, you really should be reading Language Log

Cute example today -

Bātèfúlái cāntīng 芭特芙萊餐廳

The first word butterfly has been phonetically translated, but the second word 餐廳 (or 餐厅) – hasn't. But happily "cāntīng" means the same as the English word ‘canteen’!

V for Vegas fucked around with this message at 07:50 on Nov 21, 2013

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