Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

You don't need this thread, you need E/N. Your parents are willing to jeopardize their relationship with you over money, and that's unhealthy no matter what the particular money-issue happens to be.

# ? Nov 28, 2013 02:11

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# ? May 21, 2024 02:00

lightpole: Jun 4, 2004; I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

If your parents won't listen to you about your money and will listen to a stranger on the Internet I say go for it, I don't see how you can fail.

# ? Nov 28, 2013 05:21

CombatInformatiker: Apr 11, 2012

Ask them how much they made using TA over the years, taking into account all trading costs. If it's not significantly more than some index fund (to justify all the effort involved), then tell them to stuff it. On the other hand, if they got crazy returns, it's time for you to pick up some serious TA skills. If it's the former and the they're still not convinced, you shouldn't listen to their financial/investing advice anyway.

What's this thread's opinion on TA in general? (I haven't read the >300 pages :effort:

)

# ? Nov 28, 2013 06:15

Tony Montana: Aug 6, 2005; by FactsAreUseless

Pollyanna posted:

what the hell

Ok, here is my advice to you:

1) In this world to do hard things you have to do the work. The work in learning a hard thing involves reading the best texts on the subject, in such a way (making notes and etc, the study skills you learned in Uni) that you retain and grow from it.
2) If you don't know how to study, go and do a degree first or something so you do.
3) Picking stocks is assessing companies based on a variety of factors and making a call about their future profitability. It's a bit like going to a Formula One race and picking who will win on the Sunday. It's not something you can learn, like a trade like putting in a benchtop, it's the culmination of a range of different disciplines, combined with a lot of time watching the market/racing so you know the scene, combined with a bit of sheer luck. Some analysts really can rock up on the Friday and tell you who will win Sunday, but they're experienced and very good and what they have comes with many years of practice. They're also wrong sometimes and that's just how it goes, you just don't know what the weather is going to be like on Sunday (for instance).

Usually something like a degree in business is a good place to start so you have a handle on the mechanics of public entities and therefore insight into their health factors.

Or gently caress all of this and take the next 3 WEEKS TO BECOME A SUCCESSFUL OPTIONS TRADER course and eventually lose your money and swear off stocks like so many do.

# ? Nov 28, 2013 11:04

CombatInformatiker: Apr 11, 2012

Tony Montana posted:

1) In this world to do hard things you have to do the work. The work in learning a hard thing involves reading the best texts on the subject, in such a way (making notes and etc, the study skills you learned in Uni) that you retain and grow from it.

You don't need a degree in business economics to analyze companies. You don't even have to pore over huge text books, internalizing hundreds of definitions, business rules, economic facts and what not. You can analyze a business even if you wouldn't be able to found/lead one.

Tony Montana posted:

3) Picking stocks is assessing companies based on a variety of factors and making a call about their future profitability. It's a bit like going to a Formula One race and picking who will win on the Sunday. It's not something you can learn, like a trade like putting in a benchtop,

This is in direct contradiction to what you wrote above.
Except if I'm misunderstanding you; then please clarify.

You also seem to be missing the point of Pollyanna's post: should he/she learn technical analysis? Not: "how much time should I spend on learning this poo poo?"

I see. So we mostly agree, then

vvvvvvvvv

CombatInformatiker fucked around with this message at 12:11 on Nov 28, 2013

# ? Nov 28, 2013 11:47

Tony Montana: Aug 6, 2005; by FactsAreUseless

The method of analyzing companies is not a proven science. You can't say you do or you don't need certain things to analyze companies, there are different schools of thought on the matter and different stock pickers approach it from different angles.

My angle happens to be background knowledge and insight and experience. Yours might be different, my advice is in the context of how I do it.

The race analogy is about even after you've done a ton of homework so you understand the influences, the actual direction of companies is still a complex thing with factors you cannot predict. My logic is the best way to approach it is to know as much as you can about what you can know, minimizing the chance aspect as much as possible.

If I'm missing the point of the post, my point is rather than any catchall (automated or not) stock picking method the best way to make judgements about whether companies will be profitable in the future is to know a lot about companies and know a lot about the market they are in.

# ? Nov 28, 2013 12:00

DariusLikewise: Oct 4, 2008; You wore that on Halloween?

So I got laid off at CP Rail about a year ago, at the time they issued the shares I had bought in the ESPP as a certificate and showed me the door. I've been sitting on them for awhile now and they just reached an all time high of 161 on the TSX. The company seems comically overvalued compared to other railways currently and I get the feeling they could drop at any time. I'm getting the feeling I should take my 9k or so and just get out completely and use that towards starting an RSP like I've wanted. Anyone willing to offer up some free advice?

# ? Nov 28, 2013 18:32

FlashBangBob: Jul 5, 2007; BLAM! Internet Found!

DariusLikewise posted:

So I got laid off at CP Rail about a year ago, at the time they issued the shares I had bought in the ESPP as a certificate and showed me the door. I've been sitting on them for awhile now and they just reached an all time high of 161 on the TSX. The company seems comically overvalued compared to other railways currently and I get the feeling they could drop at any time. I'm getting the feeling I should take my 9k or so and just get out completely and use that towards starting an RSP like I've wanted. Anyone willing to offer up some free advice?

You should probably do what your gut is telling you.

# ? Nov 28, 2013 19:23

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Pollyanna posted:

Hey guys, I'm back.

So mom and I were talking, and she really really really wants me to learn technical analysis and "use it to make money on the side" (her words). I am of a different mind because I think she and dad are mistaken on what kind of gains I could make and on this actually being worth it if it's not a full-time job. My argument is that it's way more worth it for my future to instead invest money into a Vanguard index fund and not constantly gently caress with it. Basically, I say that it's not nearly as lucrative as they think it is especially since I don't have any high-frequency trading tools; they say that it's perfectly doable for a human if they're attached to a computer all day.

I'm proposing a compromise: I will "learn technical analysis" (or whatever their impression of it is) and use seed money to practice if it's matched by the same amount of money invested into shares of VTSAX. They're not happy with it, so I still need to convince them of the idea. Before that, though, I have some questions about serious (as opposed to mom 'n pop) stock trading. My part of the deal is that I genuinely get a good grasp on the "trading world", and speaking to people with firsthand experience seems like the best thing to do.

How much of a time investment is necessary to actually make good (or any) gains from this? Doesn't it seem like at the beginning, I'm not likely to make beaucoup buxx for a good long while? The return on investment on this seems really bad, especially with the way they approach trading: entirely by hand. Which leads me to my next point...

If the entire "point" of technical analysis and trading is to respond to specific statistical markers within very short periods of time (milliseconds, almost), shouldn't I have my computer do it instead of trying to do it by hand? My parents' approach so far has been checking their stocks every night, seeing what the RSI/SMA/Bollinger bands/Eliot waves say, and then deciding to buy or sell based on that (unless things didn't go as they expected, in which case they freak out and dump everything). Isn't this way more inefficient and nowhere near as effective as having a computer program handle it instead?

Personally, I'm wary of the whole "stick to the numbers only ever" approach, cause I think it's way too reductive and narrowly-focused to be realistic. TA is a tool - a really good tool when it's used correctly. But in this case, it isn't. And it's one thing to let my parents hemorrhage money on stupid poo poo, but if I'm gonna be doing any of it I want it to go well.

And yes, I know, "why do you keep asking this poo poo if you're so against it, just tell them to gently caress off", and if they weren't using us kids' money or trying to draw me into it I wouldn't care at all, but for the life of me I cannot convince them that they have no idea what they're doing. If they won't listen to me, maybe they'll listen to someone else.

My parents won't listen to me but maybe they'll listen to some guys who post on a comedy website and talk about trading stocks o nthe side during their day job working at the genius bar.

# ? Nov 28, 2013 22:43

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

DariusLikewise posted:

So I got laid off at CP Rail about a year ago, at the time they issued the shares I had bought in the ESPP as a certificate and showed me the door. I've been sitting on them for awhile now and they just reached an all time high of 161 on the TSX. The company seems comically overvalued compared to other railways currently and I get the feeling they could drop at any time. I'm getting the feeling I should take my 9k or so and just get out completely and use that towards starting an RSP like I've wanted. Anyone willing to offer up some free advice?

SEll your shares you stupid idiot. Whhy the hell wouldn't you?

# ? Nov 28, 2013 22:44

nebby: Dec 21, 2000; resident mog

"My mom keeps telling me to learn technical analysis" -- pretty good sell signal

# ? Nov 29, 2013 01:38

DariusLikewise: Oct 4, 2008; You wore that on Halloween?

SuppressdPuberty93 posted:

SEll your shares you stupid idiot. Whhy the hell wouldn't you?

Well right now I'm taking the first step, I just got my share certificate so I have to get that mailed in to the broker, but all the shares have done since I got them is gain, I don't have a terrible need for the money so I was wondering if there is a ceiling for how high they can get so I can maximize my gain(that's probably stupid).

# ? Nov 29, 2013 17:52

Mills: Jun 13, 2003

No one can pick absolute highs or lows.

# ? Nov 29, 2013 17:55

Kal Torak: Jul 17, 2003; When Giles sends me on a mission, he says "please". And afterwards I get a cookie.

DariusLikewise posted:

Well right now I'm taking the first step, I just got my share certificate so I have to get that mailed in to the broker, but all the shares have done since I got them is gain, I don't have a terrible need for the money so I was wondering if there is a ceiling for how high they can get so I can maximize my gain(that's probably stupid).

Pipelines aren't getting built and crude by rail has become a real thing. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see CN and CP continue to go up.

You have a nice gain, so maybe put in a stop order?

# ? Nov 29, 2013 18:01

Tony Montana: Aug 6, 2005; by FactsAreUseless

DariusLikewise posted:

Well right now I'm taking the first step, I just got my share certificate so I have to get that mailed in to the broker, but all the shares have done since I got them is gain, I don't have a terrible need for the money so I was wondering if there is a ceiling for how high they can get so I can maximize my gain(that's probably stupid).

This is called timing the market. If you read things, they will tell you to not do this.

Do as you will, but understand you are gambling with your gain. Think in terms of being at the casino, and you're up. Wether you buy another drink and hit the tables again or call a cab and go home ahead, it's up to you.

# ? Nov 29, 2013 18:40

pr0k: Jan 16, 2001; "Well if it's gonna be
that kind of party..."

Except in this analogy, there's no cab and no home. You can, however, get on a bus and ride slowly around the city losing money very slowly and eating at gas stations.

# ? Nov 29, 2013 20:24

Tony Montana: Aug 6, 2005; by FactsAreUseless

Or that roulette ball could land right on your number and you're snorting blow out of hooker's rear end cracks for the next week. You could buy a new car. You could quit your job.

Yeah, go on. One more spin.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Or Discounted Dividend Model if you read the Four Pillars like every person in this sub-forum will tell you.

# ? Nov 29, 2013 21:30

nebby: Dec 21, 2000; resident mog

I was about to close my AAPL position after this nice run up from when I bought it in June, decided to think it over while I took a shower -- afterwards went to issue the sell order and realized the marked closed early today while I was in the shower.

In other words, expect a huge AAPL plunge next week.

# ? Nov 29, 2013 21:37

DONT THREAD ON ME: Oct 1, 2002; by Nyc_Tattoo; Floss Finder

Pollyanna posted:

Hey guys, I'm back.

So mom and I were talking, and she really really really wants me to learn technical analysis and "use it to make money on the side" (her words). I am of a different mind because I think she and dad are mistaken on what kind of gains I could make and on this actually being worth it if it's not a full-time job. My argument is that it's way more worth it for my future to instead invest money into a Vanguard index fund and not constantly gently caress with it. Basically, I say that it's not nearly as lucrative as they think it is especially since I don't have any high-frequency trading tools; they say that it's perfectly doable for a human if they're attached to a computer all day.

I'm proposing a compromise: I will "learn technical analysis" (or whatever their impression of it is) and use seed money to practice if it's matched by the same amount of money invested into shares of VTSAX. They're not happy with it, so I still need to convince them of the idea. Before that, though, I have some questions about serious (as opposed to mom 'n pop) stock trading. My part of the deal is that I genuinely get a good grasp on the "trading world", and speaking to people with firsthand experience seems like the best thing to do.

How much of a time investment is necessary to actually make good (or any) gains from this? Doesn't it seem like at the beginning, I'm not likely to make beaucoup buxx for a good long while? The return on investment on this seems really bad, especially with the way they approach trading: entirely by hand. Which leads me to my next point...

If the entire "point" of technical analysis and trading is to respond to specific statistical markers within very short periods of time (milliseconds, almost), shouldn't I have my computer do it instead of trying to do it by hand? My parents' approach so far has been checking their stocks every night, seeing what the RSI/SMA/Bollinger bands/Eliot waves say, and then deciding to buy or sell based on that (unless things didn't go as they expected, in which case they freak out and dump everything). Isn't this way more inefficient and nowhere near as effective as having a computer program handle it instead?

Personally, I'm wary of the whole "stick to the numbers only ever" approach, cause I think it's way too reductive and narrowly-focused to be realistic. TA is a tool - a really good tool when it's used correctly. But in this case, it isn't. And it's one thing to let my parents hemorrhage money on stupid poo poo, but if I'm gonna be doing any of it I want it to go well.

And yes, I know, "why do you keep asking this poo poo if you're so against it, just tell them to gently caress off", and if they weren't using us kids' money or trying to draw me into it I wouldn't care at all, but for the life of me I cannot convince them that they have no idea what they're doing. If they won't listen to me, maybe they'll listen to someone else.

Your parents are really stupid.

Trading is not worth it as a side job. The people who make real money on trading have millions (billions) in assets. They're driving the market in addition to profiting off of it. People who just buy some stocks on the side will rarely do better than an index/mutual fund.

People who really spend time on it might do better than a fund but they're still going to be dumping a ton of time into it. It takes the same amount of time to analyze a stock whether you're dealing with $100 bucks or $100 million. The difference is that when you're not using real money, you're not making real money. So you're doing a ton of work for very little reward.

DONT THREAD ON ME fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Nov 30, 2013

# ? Nov 30, 2013 21:44

Star War Sex Parrot: Oct 2, 2003

Man I am so happy with WDC right now. I just got the last of my very attractively-priced ESPP purchases and am thinking it's time to take the money and run with this current $75 share price. I can't imagine it doing much better, but I was also saying that back at the start of the year when it ~$50.

# ? Dec 1, 2013 05:50

CAPS LOCK BROKEN: Feb 1, 2006; by Fluffdaddy

What are some stocks you guys would recommend for income/dividend generating purposes?

# ? Dec 2, 2013 02:17

Pixelboy: Sep 13, 2005; Now, I know what you're thinking...

Peven Stan posted:

What are some stocks you guys would recommend for income/dividend generating purposes?

I bought into MSFT in the low $20's.

# ? Dec 2, 2013 07:39

lightpole: Jun 4, 2004; I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Peven Stan posted:

What are some stocks you guys would recommend for income/dividend generating purposes?

Top 17 or so of the Dow. Also look at some LLCs due to tax structure.

# ? Dec 2, 2013 08:14

Lazy Broker: Jul 9, 2013; Whatcha gonna do? When they come for you?

Something funny I saw in CNBC.

How many will be left holding the bag?

Only registered members can see post attachments!

# ? Dec 2, 2013 10:19

tiananman: Feb 6, 2005; Non-Headkins Splatoma

Peven Stan posted:

What are some stocks you guys would recommend for income/dividend generating purposes?

Any of the Dogs of the Dow.

# ? Dec 2, 2013 15:39

MrBigglesworth: Mar 26, 2005; Lover of Fuzzy Meatloaf

Does it HAVE to be stocks?

There are quite a few Closed End Funds that pay north of 5% yearly on a monthly basis. Some even tax free!

CEFConnect.com has a good screener.

# ? Dec 2, 2013 17:00

Lazy Broker: Jul 9, 2013; Whatcha gonna do? When they come for you?

Peven Stan posted:

What are some stocks you guys would recommend for income/dividend generating purposes?

In the energy and health sectors. Values are looking toppy for financial, tech and some global stock indices.

# ? Dec 2, 2013 19:00

mike-: Jul 9, 2004; Phillipians 1:21

Sanky Panky posted:

In the energy and health sectors. Values are looking toppy for financial, tech and some global stock indices.

I'd be curious to see your support for this. Most of the research I have seen indicates valuations are unattractive in healthcare while more attractive in tech and financials.

# ? Dec 2, 2013 19:44

Cheesemaster200: Feb 11, 2004; Guard of the Citadel

Sanky Panky posted:

Something funny I saw in CNBC.

How many will be left holding the bag?

Many companies get their 401(k) match at the end of the year, not to mention bonuses for the middle upper class who will invest it.

The "santa clause rally" is one of the few financial buzz terms that actually make sense.

quote:

In the energy and health sectors. Values are looking toppy for financial, tech and some global stock indices.

There are quite a few legacy tech companies which are paying a handsome dividend and undervalued right now in my opinion. INTC, IBM and CSCO to name a few. They are down recently due to crappy numbers in business IT investment. However, I think expectations are so low that they will be a good buy if things pick up next year.

A lot of the tech momentum is in the hype stocks like twitter, Apple, Amazon, Google, etc. As we all know such momentum can turn real quick with these stocks, especially when you are at 52w highs.

Cheesemaster200 fucked around with this message at 02:42 on Dec 3, 2013

# ? Dec 3, 2013 02:38

Josh Lyman: May 24, 2009

Cheesemaster200 posted:

Many companies get their 401(k) match at the end of the year, not to mention bonuses for the middle upper class who will invest it.

The "santa clause rally" is one of the few financial buzz terms that actually make sense.

I frame it as an empirical fact proven in the academic literature that stupid media outlets have branded.

# ? Dec 3, 2013 02:43

nebby: Dec 21, 2000; resident mog

Cheesemaster200 posted:

A lot of the tech momentum is in the hype stocks like twitter, Apple, Amazon, Google, etc. As we all know such momentum can turn real quick with these stocks, especially when you are at 52w highs.

I wouldn't put Apple in that group as a momentum hype stock. They're back up to a pretty fair price in terms of EV/EBIT, but they are not anywhere in the neighborhood of the absurd valuations of AMZN, FB, and TWTR. (I bought when the EV/EBIT of AAPL was in the bottom 5% of the market, which was as close to free money as you can get in these types of things, when it was in the low 400's.)

# ? Dec 3, 2013 03:53

Lazy Broker: Jul 9, 2013; Whatcha gonna do? When they come for you?

I shorted $SPY around 180 lets see if this is finally it.

# ? Dec 3, 2013 17:36

Mouse Cadet: Mar 19, 2009; All aboard the McEltrain
Next Stop: Atlanta

Anyone know why HCI dropped 8% today?

# ? Dec 3, 2013 23:04

koolkal: Oct 21, 2008; Can't post for 17 hours!

Analyst downgrades.

# ? Dec 4, 2013 00:31

Hufflepuff or bust!: Jan 28, 2005; I should have known better.

Silly question from someone that owns very few stocks and does not trade - everything I have was gifted to me at some point and I've held on to it.

I have ~20 shares of LMT (Lockheed) which recently hit an all-time high of 144 or so. It has since dropped one or two bucks a day down to 136, still a pretty good high for the stock. I am planning to sell before the end of the year to take advantage of 0% capital gains tax (I've owned this stock for decades so it is basically all gains by this point). Should I just bail out now, or hang in until closer to the end of the year? I can't set up any complicated trades - only request that my directly held shares be sold at whatever the day-end price for that day is.

Not a rich jerk, so I'll admit seeing $160 of hypothetical value drift away makes me

# ? Dec 4, 2013 20:45

scavok: Feb 22, 2005

kaishek posted:

Silly question from someone that owns very few stocks and does not trade - everything I have was gifted to me at some point and I've held on to it.

I have ~20 shares of LMT (Lockheed) which recently hit an all-time high of 144 or so. It has since dropped one or two bucks a day down to 136, still a pretty good high for the stock. I am planning to sell before the end of the year to take advantage of 0% capital gains tax (I've owned this stock for decades so it is basically all gains by this point). Should I just bail out now, or hang in until closer to the end of the year? I can't set up any complicated trades - only request that my directly held shares be sold at whatever the day-end price for that day is.

Not a rich jerk, so I'll admit seeing $160 of hypothetical value drift away makes me

You can't time the market. If you want/need the cash and don't really have any kind of theory on catalysts or LMT performance, then just sell it. Also, you shouldn't get upset if you don't time it right, especially if you're taking profits. It's a silly thing to kick yourself over, but everyone does it anyway.

# ? Dec 4, 2013 21:03

Guinness: Sep 15, 2004

kaishek posted:

I am planning to sell before the end of the year to take advantage of 0% capital gains tax

Wait, what?

# ? Dec 4, 2013 21:24

Shear Modulus: Jun 9, 2010

Guinness posted:

Wait, what?

Only if you make less than like $35k a year (something like 70k for couples).

Ie, hardly any overlap with those in the US who own a significant amount of stock outside of tax-advantaged accounts.

# ? Dec 4, 2013 21:41

Tony Montana: Aug 6, 2005; by FactsAreUseless

It's incredible how the advice just keeps going in circles, once you've got some basics down and read some of those books in the OP - you can just keep swatting the questions like flies.

Makes you realize what a wrought the finance industry is, how little most people understand about money beyond buying poo poo.

# ? Dec 5, 2013 13:29

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# ? May 21, 2024 02:00

District Selectman: Jan 22, 2012; by Lowtax

kaishek posted:

Silly question from someone that owns very few stocks and does not trade - everything I have was gifted to me at some point and I've held on to it.

I have ~20 shares of LMT (Lockheed) which recently hit an all-time high of 144 or so. It has since dropped one or two bucks a day down to 136, still a pretty good high for the stock. I am planning to sell before the end of the year to take advantage of 0% capital gains tax (I've owned this stock for decades so it is basically all gains by this point). Should I just bail out now, or hang in until closer to the end of the year? I can't set up any complicated trades - only request that my directly held shares be sold at whatever the day-end price for that day is.

Not a rich jerk, so I'll admit seeing $160 of hypothetical value drift away makes me

Short term, I have no idea. I'd sell now.

Long term I have very little confidence in LM as a company, because I have worked there for 8 years. Too many executives and VP's with little to no incentive to correct the problem, because they're all retiring in the next 5 years. Something like 60% of the company is retirement age and they have no plan for that. They also have no plan to deal with the current level of defense cuts, let alone the obvious future cuts that are coming.

I have worked there for 8 years and never owned more than a few thousand dollars of company stock, and only then because my 401k match is automatically put into the LM common stock until I transfer it out. Take that as you will.

# ? Dec 5, 2013 14:45

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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