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ocrumsprug posted:I think it is unsecured in that if the debt > assets of the estate CC companies get to eat the loss. Though they will try and make your heirs believe that they owe. The mortgage holder can foreclose the house to recoup their money. Yeah, ok, that makes sense.
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# ? Dec 10, 2013 21:36 |
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# ? Jun 1, 2024 05:46 |
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Whether you like Garth Turner or not, I think it would be hard to credibly argue that he's not on fine form this evening:Garth Turner posted:Another day, another factory. On Tuesday came the turn of 500 employees at a cereal plant in Ontario to learn they’re toast. Exactly 90 years after it started pumping out corn flakes in London, Kellogg’s is moving to Thailand, where the minimum wage was raised this year to $10. Per day. http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/12/10/down/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
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# ? Dec 11, 2013 06:18 |
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Add another 8,000 lost at Canada Post. edit: And probably disproportionately in urban areas, too.
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# ? Dec 11, 2013 18:11 |
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https://twitter.com/taraperkins/status/410839656393998336 Helmut Pastrick thinks that Toronto's RE prices will double in 25 years.
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# ? Dec 11, 2013 20:03 |
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Cultural Imperial posted:https://twitter.com/taraperkins/status/410839656393998336 Not even worth mentioning, by either you or 'Tara Perkins'. His job is, ultimately, to peddle demand for real estate, and assuage concerns that purchasing is a bad idea. That's the upside of a 'public prediction' like this. The downside of such a 'public prediction' is... zero. Even if he is stupendously incorrect - he has zero skin in the game to lose in that outcome. Ford dealers are known for predicting the purchase of a Ford to be a wise and gratifying purchase. We tend not to report on it though.
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# ? Dec 11, 2013 20:14 |
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Where can I get one of those magic 8 ball jobs?
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# ? Dec 11, 2013 20:15 |
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Lexicon posted:Not even worth mentioning, by either you or 'Tara Perkins'. His job is, ultimately, to peddle demand for real estate, and assuage concerns that purchasing is a bad idea. That's the upside of a 'public prediction' like this. The downside of such a 'public prediction' is... zero. Even if he is stupendously incorrect - he has zero skin in the game to lose in that outcome. Agreed that pastrick is worthless. I think Tara Perkins is a good journalist and she does a yeoman job of reporting in real estate because she doesn't take a market position. I consider this to be a great data point for future discussion. Like when the truth and reconciliation commissions or the Nuremberg trials.
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# ? Dec 11, 2013 20:46 |
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To wit regarding Perkins' impartiality : https://twitter.com/taraperkins/status/410848206608547840 Deutsch bank thinks Canada is in deep poo poo.
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# ? Dec 11, 2013 20:52 |
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Cultural Imperial posted:To wit regarding Perkins' impartiality : Anyone who looks at that graph and doesn't feel themselves pucker up should have their head examined.
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# ? Dec 11, 2013 21:27 |
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Rime, can you provide a source for that [terrifying] image?
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# ? Dec 11, 2013 21:31 |
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Page 45 of this thread, Etalian posted it. It's got a little watermark for "BCA Research 2013", but that's about as far as my context goes. Edit: Source seems to be Business Insider, generated by BCA: http://www.businessinsider.com/3-charts-that-make-us-scared-for-canada-2013-10 Rime fucked around with this message at 21:54 on Dec 11, 2013 |
# ? Dec 11, 2013 21:45 |
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Full text of the Deutsch Bank article: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...rticle15878166/ They're calling 60% overvalued, goddamn.
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# ? Dec 12, 2013 18:34 |
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Mentally I'm keeping a list of influential housing bears. So far I have: GS IMF DB Robert Shiller Nouriel Roubini Paul Krugman (he called the market 'vulnerable' to deleveraging) Who else?
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# ? Dec 12, 2013 19:30 |
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http://www.theprovince.com/business/Vancouver+area+real+estate+market+looks+healthy+2014+experts/9270980/story.htmlquote:In late 2012 after home sales in B.C. fell to the lowest level since the late 1990s, doomsayers were calling for a severe real estate correction. That didn’t happen. In 2013 sales steadily improved and prices stayed relatively flat. Could 2014 be a shakeup year? To find out, The Province interviewed real estate experts to learn the key trends that will influence next year’s market. Well, at least they're not predicting prices will double in 25 years.
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# ? Dec 12, 2013 19:45 |
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This is mandatory reading if you want to see someone justify an 'investment' in an asset with negative cash flow and zero capital appreciation. http://issuu.com/wall2wall/docs/tnh_2313/70
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# ? Dec 12, 2013 20:03 |
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Cultural Imperial posted:This is what housing bulls think: Unless I'm misreading that article, she could sell up today and walk away with a profit of at least several hundred thousand dollars, and will retain the option of doing so until the bubble eventually bursts. Right now she's in pretty good financial health since there's no shortage of greater fools.
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# ? Dec 12, 2013 20:07 |
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LemonDrizzle posted:Unless I'm misreading that article, she could sell up today and walk away with a profit of at least several hundred thousand dollars, and will retain the option of doing so until the bubble eventually bursts. Right now she's in pretty good financial health since there's no shortage of greater fools. Absolutely. The problem is, how many of these homeowners would subject themselves to the shame and humiliation of becoming renters again?
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# ? Dec 12, 2013 20:09 |
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My parents want to downsize. It's the 2 of them in a massive 3,000 sqft house with a huge yard they can barely take care of anymore and the house stresses them way out. I've told them they could sell the house for 800k or so and rent for the rest of their lives and come out way ahead. Or just rent for a few years then buy when the time is right. Some rich idiots from Ontario just bought the house next door last year for 900k and it's smaller than theirs. Now is the time to get out! The housing market is so weird where people buy houses as "investments" but people buy high and often sell low. How many loving people buy as the bubble is going up and then are forced to sell when the bubble bursts and suddenly they are under water and freak out and want out? But nope, they'll probably sell the house and buy a slightly smaller one at the worst timing possible because renting is out of the question for their generation. They are still upset I'm renting and look at it as personal failings as parents that their poor son has to RENT. Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 20:19 on Dec 12, 2013 |
# ? Dec 12, 2013 20:15 |
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Hmm...well luckily my parents are still waffling about that 1.3 million dollar 1700 sqft house in loving Steveston.
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# ? Dec 12, 2013 20:28 |
Cultural Imperial posted:This is mandatory reading if you want to see someone justify an 'investment' in an asset with negative cash flow and zero capital appreciation. Holy poo poo that "logic". Cash out refinance the house you live in for $100k, use $90k of that as a down payment on a "rental" property with its own $310k mortgage, and (perhaps my favorite bit) assume that the property will be worth the same after 20 years of renting with zero budgeted for upkeep. All that to be in the red $300 per month in the best of times and $2300 per month if you don't have a renter.
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# ? Dec 12, 2013 21:49 |
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So what's the best thing to do as a renter before, during, and after a bubble bursting?
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# ? Dec 12, 2013 22:37 |
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Renting, followed by not-renting (depending on how big the drop was). You could probably save for a down payment but you should be building up savings anyway. Worst case scenario is you just keep investing in not-houses and retire early
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# ? Dec 12, 2013 22:45 |
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Well, strictly speaking the best thing to do is to get in on the bubble early, ride it until just before the burst, sell up and take your profits, rent and ride out the crash, and use the fat stacks you made on the upward swing to buy your dream home with no mortgage when the market bottoms out. Just gotta get one of them fancy future-seeing machines to find out when exactly the peak and trough are going to occur.
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# ? Dec 12, 2013 22:49 |
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That's the sort of reasoning that gets people to buy bitcoins - i.e. the bad kind.
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# ? Dec 12, 2013 22:53 |
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Yeah the problem is people have a really bad sense of what stage things are in. By the time everyone is talking about it it's already too late. But like I said, when it comes to realestate, people only really go buying crazy near the middle-end of a bubble, which is often the last dying bit of support the bubble has: the idiot amateur investor. We knew a lot of people who sold their houses in the 80's during the middle of a major slump, but bought during a small boom previously. Why? Well everyone is buying! Buying is so hot right now!! Oh gently caress the market has crashed! Interest rates are double digit!! Everyone says realestate is BAD now so I should sell!! Many of these people were not even forced to sell and if they had waited they'd have ridden it out. I've seen the same thing with stocks and other investments. People hear about some hot company that's suddenly super successful and they want to buy stock. Then news comes that the company isn't doing so well so they sell. Buy high, sell low! Exact same thing with bitcoins. They are ridiculously inflated right now and very hard to actually cash out despite imaginary reported values, so tons of people are suddenly buying into bitcoins BECAUSE they are expensive right now. And I can guarantee that in the next bitcoin crash they will all be cashing out as fast as they can. Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Dec 12, 2013 |
# ? Dec 12, 2013 23:07 |
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Baronjutter posted:Yeah the problem is people have a really bad sense of what stage things are in. By the time everyone is talking about it it's already too late. But like I said, when it comes to realestate, people only really go buying crazy near the middle-end of a bubble, which is often the last dying bit of support the bubble has: the idiot amateur investor. We knew a lot of people who sold their houses in the 80's during the middle of a major slump, but bought during a small boom previously. Why? Well everyone is buying! Buying is so hot right now!! Oh gently caress the market has crashed! Interest rates are double digit!! Everyone says realestate is BAD now so I should sell!! Many of these people were not even forced to sell and if they had waited they'd have ridden it out. Buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying and you should be golden. And start panicking when people begin to talk about "soft landing".
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# ? Dec 13, 2013 00:13 |
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OhYeah posted:Buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying and you should be golden. No. Don't. Everyone is still buying now. You should not buy now. Nor should you buy tulips when everyone was selling them post-crash. They are still just loving tulips. Buy when the thing you want to buy is worth the price you are going to buy it for to you personally regardless of what other people are doing and/or telling you will happen. If you are buying investments, buy a regular diversified portfolio like everyone else that is reasonable. If you want huge-risk, huge-potential, just send me your money, I happen to know of this totally sure thing, it's gonna be 800% your money back in like 3 weeks, seriously I've done it so many times before, I just need a little bit more capital from smart good looking investors such as yourself.
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# ? Dec 13, 2013 00:20 |
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Mr. Wynand posted:No. Don't. Everyone is still buying now. You should not buy now. Nor should you buy tulips when everyone was selling them post-crash. They are still just loving tulips. I'm amazed that almost 400 years have passed since that incident and some economists still argue that there's no such thing as financial bubbles.
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# ? Dec 13, 2013 00:28 |
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Mr. Wynand posted:No. Don't. Everyone is still buying now. You should not buy now. Nor should you buy tulips when everyone was selling them post-crash. They are still just loving tulips. I'm sorry, I should've been more clear. What I was trying to say is this: use your loving brain and don't overpay. The sad thing is, I don't see any way out of this bubble, it has to burst sooner or later. Exactly the same thing happened in my home country. By the time everyone realized that poo poo is serious, there was nothing left to do but watch in horror as the catasrophe unfolded before everyone's eyes while bankers and politicians kept expecting a "soft landing". Don't know if they were being dishonest or just stupid. Probably both. And now my sister is caught up in the same mess because she is living in Canada.
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# ? Dec 13, 2013 00:46 |
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If the BoC or government states on record that there is a bubble everyone will rush to sell and it will encourage a crash. Denial always precedes bubbles.
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# ? Dec 13, 2013 01:24 |
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https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/411322384285593600quote:Yes...home equity withdrawal from primary residences currently represents a greater dollar amount than all capex in the oil sands So if you don't buy a house, you must hate canada or something.
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# ? Dec 13, 2013 04:55 |
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cowofwar posted:If the BoC or government states on record that there is a bubble everyone will rush to sell and it will encourage a crash. Denial always precedes bubbles. That's something Jim "Bear Stearns is fine" Cramer would say. The BoC's job is to set expectations, but more specifically, maximize employment and achieve price stability. I don't think Dodge or Carney *ever* made comments with respect to the housing market. That has always been the domain of the idiots in parliament. The question now is, why the gently caress is Poloz talking poo poo about it?
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# ? Dec 13, 2013 04:59 |
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Cultural Imperial posted:That's something Jim "Bear Stearns is fine" Cramer would say. The BoC's job is to set expectations, but more specifically, maximize employment and achieve price stability. Pretty sure employment isn't in their mandate. However, making sure the banking/financial system doesn't fall over dead is. Carney did speak, frequently and at length about Canadian debt levels. I assumed that this was code for people over extending themselves on mortgages and then over extending themselves again on HELOCs. Housing has hit the point (awhile ago unfortunately) of being a systemic risk to the financial health of the country, so Poloz really doesn't have much choice but to talk about it. However since he is a central banker he needs to be very cautious about what he says and how he says it.
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# ? Dec 13, 2013 08:47 |
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Cultural Imperial posted:I don't think Dodge or Carney *ever* made comments with respect to the housing market. That has always been the domain of the idiots in parliament. The question now is, why the gently caress is Poloz talking poo poo about it? LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 09:35 on Dec 13, 2013 |
# ? Dec 13, 2013 09:22 |
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Ross Kay takes issue with November reported real estate statisticsquote:On Monday Dec. 16th., Canada's press reported that, on an actual (not seasonally adjusted) basis, a total of 32,379 homes had traded hands across the country for the month of November, when in fact that total included 2191 home sales that had been reported more than one time in that count. It is really too bad that the death of journalism has allowed real estate numbers to get published without comment.
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# ? Dec 18, 2013 08:06 |
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That's ok! If you gave out accurate information it might spook prospective buyers and trigger a market contraction. And who wants that when upwards of 30% of Canada's GDP comes from FIRE?
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# ? Dec 18, 2013 15:12 |
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https://businessincanada.com/2013/12/18/td-ceo-ed-clark-lofty-home-prices-are-a-canadian-competitiveness-issue/quote:“I don’t think people think of housing as a competitive issue. But you sit there and you say, if a Canadian has to pay twice as much for his home as an American, he or she is going to want to be paid more than an American,” he said. This issue is compounded by the fact that Canadian workers are less productive than their American counterparts to begin with. “So you’re less productive, and you have to be paid more just to have the same standard of living in terms of buying houses. That’s a competitive problem, ” he concluded. lol
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# ? Dec 19, 2013 01:18 |
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7% eh? DeutscheBank thinks 60%. Bit of a difference of opinion.
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# ? Dec 19, 2013 04:36 |
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Good Riddance, TD has gone to absolute garbage in the past twelve years.
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# ? Dec 19, 2013 06:14 |
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# ? Jun 1, 2024 05:46 |
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Baronjutter posted:7% eh? DeutscheBank thinks 60%. Bit of a difference of opinion. Even 7% would be enough to sink some people in my circle. There's no pretending anymore.
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# ? Dec 19, 2013 06:19 |