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Smiling Jack
Dec 2, 2001

I sucked a dick for bus fare and then I walked home.

Fascism is a political system.

Electioneering, fraud, voter intimidation and flat out violence aren't tactics linked solely to Fascism.

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Nebakenezzer
Sep 13, 2005

The Mote in God's Eye

I can't contribute a lot re: postwar Japan, but I do know a little. I really don't know what to think about MacArthur as a military commander (I've read everything from 'he was a true Roman' to 'IRL Zapp Branigan') but he seems to have been a uniquely good choice to lead postwar Japan. Thanks to his far east experience, he seems to been a adept political operator in Japan, making friends despite the fact he was more a less a absolute ruler. Also, ironically for a man too conservative to join the Republican Party, he got the smartest new deal experts he could find, and did whatever they recommended, no matter how much the leftover Japanese old Guard complained. Among other things, he eliminated all vestiges of the feudal system, and gave universal suffrage for women. He also completely stomped the communist movement in Japan. He did nothing as the communists gained popularity, but when they agitated for a General Strike, the General went on the radio forbidding it, saying that he wasn't going to let anybody hold hostage the fragile economic progress Japan had made since the war. Since food (let alone employment) was still a serious problem in Japan, this stand of course was extremely popular, and turned a lot of people who were on the fence against the communists.

I'm not sure if big history brains like Cyrano will consider this valid, but there is also something to be said that the Japanese militarism was not only implicitly shown to be a big failure, but was explicitly said to be a failure by the Emperor in his famous radio address to the Japanese people. He also said (paraphrasing) that Japan needed a new direction. Since that meant no more fascism or militarism, and communism was rapidly off the table, that meant a democracy by default.

It is also worth noting that both Germany and Japan were occupied and defended by one of the dominant superpowers of the cold war. This was a substantial savings in resources, of course, but also it meant that the smartest scientists and engineers were being used by their resurgent industrial bases making commercial products, not cold war high tech. That gave them a considerable economic advantage.

Snowdens Secret
Dec 29, 2008
Someone got you a obnoxiously racist av.

Nebakenezzer posted:

it meant that the smartest scientists and engineers were being used by their resurgent industrial bases making commercial products, not cold war high tech. That gave them a considerable economic advantage.

Well, minus all the ones we and the Soviets stole, mostly to make Cold War high tech.

Ceros_X
Aug 6, 2006

U.S. Marine

Koesj posted:

I'm not very familiar with the direct impact of the US occupation on Japan (Embracing Defeat looks like an excellent primer though), but are you suggesting that there is a strong link between the absorption of the Meiji Constitution into the Postwar one, and the level of 'success' that Japan has had since the US Occupation? Because the stuff I've read (admittedly some time ago) about economic development suggests there wasn't that much linkage between the two.

Not the economic success, no - but the quick success of full fledged democracy rather. If the common man cared at all, it seemed that their constitution was amended by their own people as opposed to having a new one forced on them by foreigners. After the war, any mention of the Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers role in drafting the Constitution could be subject to censorship by the Civil Censorship Detachment (which required that censored items be rewritten to avoid the offending topic, not Xed out like previous forms of censorship).

Somebody Awful
Nov 27, 2011

BORN TO DIE
HAIG IS A FUCK
Kill Em All 1917
I am trench man
410,757,864,530 SHELLS FIRED


Nebakenezzer posted:

Thanks to his far east experience, he seems to been a adept political operator in Japan, making friends despite the fact he was more a less a absolute ruler.

Up until the point where he declared the Japanese race was a child in a room of adults, anyway.

Nebakenezzer
Sep 13, 2005

The Mote in God's Eye

Sperglord Actual posted:

Up until the point where he declared the Japanese race was a child in a room of adults, anyway.

They didn't include that in Gregory Peck's MacArthur movie.

Agean90
Jun 28, 2008


Nebakenezzer posted:

They didn't include that in Gregory Peck's MacArthur movie.

To be fair, Peck is better at being MacArthur than MacArthur.

Koesj
Aug 3, 2003

Ceros_X posted:

Not the economic success, no - but the quick success of full fledged democracy rather. If the common man cared at all, it seemed that their constitution was amended by their own people as opposed to having a new one forced on them by foreigners. After the war, any mention of the Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers role in drafting the Constitution could be subject to censorship by the Civil Censorship Detachment (which required that censored items be rewritten to avoid the offending topic, not Xed out like previous forms of censorship).

Isn't that a bit of an overly positive view of the impact of the constitutional process? The procedures of which I, again, admittedly don't know that much about.

How can you quantifiably trace the influence of something that was put to paper, and which certain people could, or can, claim ownership of over others, compared to the concrete results of the Japanese economic resurgence over the medium term, which pretty much happened outside the sphere of both US occupational, and Japanese public influence?

The original question posed in the other thread was how they turned into a 'successful, peaceful country', that the US 'helped to rebuild', and which is now a 'trading partners that does pretty well.' A notion that Cyrano tried to contextualise with regard to Germany, and which deserves a much broader perspective than "we nudged them towards adopting a democratic consitution!" when looking at Japan IMO. Primarily because the political dimension of the postwar Japanese success story looks a lot less enviable than their massive economic success.

Force de Fappe
Nov 7, 2008

We need some cold war as gently caress movies to dispell the gloom here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ujx_pND9wg

A huge sub-glacial US Army base on Greenland! Complete with cute doge, vintage snow cats, and pipe smoking.

Groda
Mar 17, 2005

Hair Elf

Agean90 posted:

To be fair, Peck is better at being MacArthur than MacArthur.

He's no Laurence Olivier...

MrYenko
Jun 18, 2012

#2 isn't ALWAYS bad...

Groda posted:

He's no Laurence Olivier...

Obscure, but effective.

Fearless
Sep 3, 2003

DRINK MORE MOXIE


Cyrano4747 posted:

Hah, so the East German model then :haw: More-or-less single party politics backed up by the continued presence via long-term basing of a big loving army owned by a recent occupier and only slightly less recent enemy.

Learn something every day.

Japan's major political parties prior to WW2 were also literally the Imperial Army and the Imperial Navy, for what it's worth. Military expenditure had so completely consumed the Japanese government that the rival services formed political parties to better ensure that they got the resources they needed.

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

Koesj posted:

How can you quantifiably trace the influence of something that was put to paper, and which certain people could, or can, claim ownership of over others, compared to the concrete results of the Japanese economic resurgence over the medium term, which pretty much happened outside the sphere of both US occupational, and Japanese public influence?

This is the part of any cross-disciplinary conference where the historian, the economist, the sociologist, and the political scientist almost come to blows.

The tl;dr on what would otherwise be 10+ pages of me rambling on about what amounts to philosophy is that there is no answer to this. We have never found a good, quantifiable model for expressing human behavior. The problem with economics is that it looks great on paper and works WONDERFULLY for explaining things in a vacuum, but it works less well for explaining really big, complex processes or questions. It also assumes that humans are rational actors, which is a pretty loving big assumption. Even assuming that we are, I've yet to get a good answer from an economist about how they account for the way that people prioritize their needs and desires.

I'm not saying that history is the perfect discipline and that it holds all of these answers, either. History is nothing more and nothing less than an interpretive approach to understanding the past. You take what facts you know, apply some critical thinking skills, and try to come up with a plausible idea about why this or that turned out the way it did. But, again, the bigger the question the more complex the answer and the more inevitable that your grand philosophy will have holes in the weave.

When it comes to any kind of behavioral questions at best we're left groping in the dark with analysis and interpretation as our only tools. Quantifiable answers with mathematically repeatable results aren't something we've ever been able to achieve in this arena, and those who claim to have done so usually are working with exceptionally small models of very basic questions, or their work isn't as quantifiable as they would have you believe, or there are some significant problems with it.

poo poo, it may very well be that at the end of the day we are simply incapable of developing or grasping the models that are necessary to explain complex behavior. Maybe the problem is so complex that the human brain, for all its sophistication and power, just does not have the right wiring for puzzling it out. It may be a problem that we can no more successfully hope to grapple with than a chimp can attempt to solve differential equations.

Right now we're left with much less satisfying interpretive models, so it's what we struggle along with when trying to explain why the gently caress it is that we behave the way we do, especially when large groups of us attempt (either by design or by blundering forth blindly) really big endeavors.

Koesj
Aug 3, 2003

I make word salads even when writing in my own language :downs:

Qualifiably then!

Forums Terrorist
Dec 8, 2011

Fearless posted:

Japan's major political parties prior to WW2 were also literally the Imperial Army and the Imperial Navy, for what it's worth. Military expenditure had so completely consumed the Japanese government that the rival services formed political parties to better ensure that they got the resources they needed.

Oh man, imagine if this literally happened in the US within our lifetimes.

VOTE MARINES - TWO OSPREY IN EVERY LHS AND AN F-35B IN EVERY POT

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

Forums Terrorist posted:

Oh man, imagine if this literally happened in the US within our lifetimes.

VOTE MARINES - TWO OSPREY IN EVERY LHS AND AN F-35B IN EVERY POT

Welcome to Imperial Germany ca. 1880-1910 or so.

Honestly nothing's really changed in that regard, it's just that the big contractors lobby directly to every representative to make sure that we keep pumping out bloated projects of questionable value. Why bother with a political party when parties can lose elections? Just buy the whole loving government and guarantee yourself a win.

McNally
Sep 13, 2007

Ask me about Proposition 305


Do you like muskets?

Fearless posted:

Japan's major political parties prior to WW2 were also literally the Imperial Army and the Imperial Navy, for what it's worth. Military expenditure had so completely consumed the Japanese government that the rival services formed political parties to better ensure that they got the resources they needed.

That poo poo got so serious that the Army tried to have Admiral Yamamoto assassinated because of his opposition to war while he was Deputy Navy Minister.

Ceros_X
Aug 6, 2006

U.S. Marine

Forums Terrorist posted:

Oh man, imagine if this literally happened in the US within our lifetimes.

VOTE MARINES - TWO OSPREY IN EVERY LHS AND AN F-35B IN EVERY POT

Let's keep it real - the Marine Corps would be the Libertarian party in this situation, a party of no import.

Psion
Dec 13, 2002

eVeN I KnOw wHaT CoRnEr gAs iS

Cyrano4747 posted:

This is the part of any cross-disciplinary conference where the historian, the economist, the sociologist, and the political scientist almost come to blows.

If we assume a perfectly spherical political system in a vacuum ...

Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?

Ceros_X posted:

Let's keep it real - the Marine Corps would be the Libertarian party in this situation, a party of no import.

Let's look at which services are actually getting most of what they want...

Edit: V :golfclap:

Godholio fucked around with this message at 21:01 on Jan 6, 2014

Vindolanda
Feb 13, 2012

It's just like him too, y'know?

Godholio posted:

Let's look at which services are actually getting most of what they want...

Lockheed?

Koesj
Aug 3, 2003

Lmao

I'd vote for Lockheed, they'd be all about make-work programs.

Pitch
Jun 16, 2005

しらんけど

McNally posted:

That poo poo got so serious that the Army tried to have Admiral Yamamoto assassinated because of his opposition to war while he was Deputy Navy Minister.
The branches of the military were too factionalized to say that "the Army" did anything, but Yamamoto was hardly the only person they tried to kill. Factions of the IJA attempted to overthrow the government three times in five years, and the IJN tried once in the middle. They killed a sitting prime minister and half of the imperial cabinet (all former prime ministers and high-ranking military officers themselves).

Dead Reckoning
Sep 13, 2011

Ceros_X posted:

Let's keep it real - the Marine Corps would be the Libertarian party in this situation, a party of no import.

The Marines would be the Tea Party: wish it was still the 1940s, disproportionally influential due to our political system, bound and determined to break everything rather than compromise their obsolete and unrealistic ideology, terrified of their continuing slide into irrelevance.

Oxford Comma
Jun 26, 2011
Oxford Comma: Hey guys I want a cool big dog to show off! I want it to be ~special~ like Thor but more couch potato-like because I got babbies in the house!
Everybody: GET A LAB.
Oxford Comma: OK! (gets a a pit/catahoula mix)

Dead Reckoning posted:

The Marines would be the Tea Party: wish it was still the 1940s, disproportionally influential due to our political system, bound and determined to break everything rather than compromise their obsolete and unrealistic ideology, terrified of their continuing slide into irrelevance.

:golfclap:

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Dead Reckoning posted:

The Marines would be the Tea Party: wish it was still the 1940s, disproportionally influential due to our political system, bound and determined to break everything rather than compromise their obsolete and unrealistic ideology, terrified of their continuing slide into irrelevance.

This is especially good since the commandant of the Marine Corps, General James Amos, was the only branch leader to say his branch of service was too loving juvenile to handle gays. Fortunately, he has since recanted and said his previous position proved unfounded.

Ceros_X
Aug 6, 2006

U.S. Marine

Dead Reckoning posted:

The Marines would be the Tea Party: wish it was still the 1940s, disproportionally influential due to our political system, bound and determined to break everything rather than compromise their obsolete and unrealistic ideology, terrified of their continuing slide into irrelevance.

:golfclap:

First part is right, at least :D . I was looking for an analogy for 'does 50% of the work with 10% of the budget' but there isn't a political branch that gets anything done so.. lol

Dead Reckoning
Sep 13, 2011
Also, when someone joins they will not shut up about it, and they produce a ton of eye-roll worthy bumper stickers & Facebook posts.

Smiling Jack
Dec 2, 2001

I sucked a dick for bus fare and then I walked home.

Ceros_X posted:

I was looking for an analogy for 'does 50% of the work with 10% of the budget'

Coast Guard. They do an amazing amount of work despite being chronically underfunded.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost


Keep the Navy out of my Blue Dollars!!!

Force de Fappe
Nov 7, 2008

Cyrano4747 posted:

Right now we're left with much less satisfying interpretive models, so it's what we struggle along with when trying to explain why the gently caress it is that we behave the way we do, especially when large groups of us attempt (either by design or by blundering forth blindly) really big endeavors.

The human brain can produce randomness, albeit not very well numerically due to hundreds, thousands, of itty bitty little biases loving up the selection. But it can certainly produce stuff that is random enough in an information theory or mathematical philosophy sense, such that we may have for instance art. Take that capacity for unpredictability and apply the multiplication principle when several random-capable individuals meet and interact and suddenly the river of history starts taking some weird turns at the most unexpected of times. You cannot predict history accurately due to this, but you can make at least broad and generic, at the rare best quite strong and narrow, projections based on current trends and knowledge of human behaviour, sociology and so on. Just don't crap your pants when some weird quantum poo poo goes down literally out of nowhere.

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

Sjurygg posted:

The human brain can produce randomness, albeit not very well numerically due to hundreds, thousands, of itty bitty little biases loving up the selection. But it can certainly produce stuff that is random enough in an information theory

no we loving can't god drat

Smiling Jack
Dec 2, 2001

I sucked a dick for bus fare and then I walked home.

Okay, Ignition! is loving insane. Cold War scientists were flat-out balls-to-the-wall holy poo poo I can't believe you tried that insane.

Rocket Scientists are one thing, Propellant Chemists are loving off the charts.

lllllllllllllllllll
Feb 28, 2010

Now the scene's lighting is perfect!
Only loosely related but here's a question about the Falkland war: After a Exocet missile damaged the British destroyer HMS Glamorganof in the Falkland war the French were allegedly forced by Thatcher to give up their "missile codes", basically disabling that system. But how would these codes reach those missiles anyway? In flight (how)? Before that? Just wondering.

Koesj
Aug 3, 2003
"She's threatening to unleash an atomic weapon against Argentina if I don't provide her with the secret codes that will make the missiles we sold the Argentinians deaf and blind."

The 'codes'here are almost certainly related to the exact jamming frequencies for the missile's on-board seeker. You can infer it even from that Guardian article, which is nothing more than a sensationalist headline really.

lllllllllllllllllll
Feb 28, 2010

Now the scene's lighting is perfect!
So was this an intentional backdoor or something they found out to be possible later? In any case, thanks!

\/ Thanks to you too.

lllllllllllllllllll fucked around with this message at 13:31 on Jan 7, 2014

Dead Reckoning
Sep 13, 2011
It's more like if someone knew the exact shape of your housekey.

Y'know, assuming that article isn't total horseshit.

Dead Reckoning fucked around with this message at 10:33 on Jan 7, 2014

Oxford Comma
Jun 26, 2011
Oxford Comma: Hey guys I want a cool big dog to show off! I want it to be ~special~ like Thor but more couch potato-like because I got babbies in the house!
Everybody: GET A LAB.
Oxford Comma: OK! (gets a a pit/catahoula mix)
Atomic weapons against Argentina? I would say lol but it was Thatcher.

evil_bunnY
Apr 2, 2003

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ArchangeI
Jul 15, 2010

Oxford Comma posted:

Atomic weapons against Argentina? I would say lol but it was Thatcher.

The story goes that she wanted to launch a single, inert Polaris at Buenos Aires with a note saying "Next one is live".

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