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I know Garth Turner loves to point out this sort of thing, but a lot of those claims, especially the ones that guarantee that the condo will have increased to a certain value by a certain time, would put you behind bars if they were about stocks.
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Jan 19, 2014 02:41
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Sassafras fucked around with this message at 18:03 on Feb 4, 2014 |
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Jan 19, 2014 03:19
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The paste eaters at time magazine are now calling 'dis a bubble. http://business.time.com/2014/01/17/canada-has-its-own-housing-bubble-and-its-about-to-burst/
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Jan 19, 2014 18:37
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Cultural Imperial posted:The paste eaters at time magazine are now calling 'dis a bubble. quote:7.5% of the Canadian workforce is in the construction industry, while 7% of the Canadian economy is based on residential construction  Sounds healthy, this.
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Jan 19, 2014 18:52
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LemonDrizzle posted:
Combine this with Canadian unemployment is creeping up over time.
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Jan 19, 2014 19:11
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LemonDrizzle posted:
Combine that with a new prevailing attitude that a liberal arts education is worthless and you now got an avalanche of what I believe economists call 'labour skills mismatch'.
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Jan 19, 2014 19:26
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Is it likely that all this press attention will trigger the start of the panic sell-off? Or will that wait until interest rates increase?
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Jan 19, 2014 20:28
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Lead out in cuffs posted:Is it likely that all this press attention will trigger the start of the panic sell-off? Or will that wait until interest rates increase? I doubt it. Based on sales data, it seems like most buyers haven't gotten the message yet.
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Jan 19, 2014 21:48
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Cultural Imperial posted:The paste eaters at time magazine are now calling 'dis a bubble. " The latest Canadian jobs report was dismal, as its economy shed 45,000 jobs in December, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.9% to 7.2%" A bit of an aside, but how can the Conservative government claim it is doing right by the economy when a figure like this is hanging over their heads?
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Jan 19, 2014 22:28
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I think the consensus is that end of year employment figures are kinda funny. I'm not sure why but the more trusted numbers are the revisions that come out later in the year.
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Jan 19, 2014 23:12
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http://globalnews.ca/news/1091657/gallery-west-vancouver-waterfront-home-destroyed-by-fire/quote:Model Ferrari blamed in fire that destroyed waterfront mansion in Lions Bay http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/car-battery-charge-fire-destroys-b-c-luxury-home-1.2502038 quote:A multimillion-dollar home in an exclusive B.C. waterfront community between West Vancouver and Lions Bay was destroyed after a fire broke out in the garage, where the homeowner left his car's battery charging. Throatwarbler fucked around with this message at 23:43 on Jan 19, 2014 |
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Jan 19, 2014 23:35
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Cultural Imperial posted:I doubt it. Based on sales data, it seems like most buyers haven't gotten the message yet. What I mean is, there have been a bunch of high-profile business papers publishing the story over the past few days, alongside talks of large hedge funds shorting Canadian real estate. What I'm wondering is whether this will be the first stirrings of a change in the narrative leading to the inevitable downward spiral of panic selling. Could this be the year? Throatwarbler posted:http://globalnews.ca/news/1091657/gallery-west-vancouver-waterfront-home-destroyed-by-fire/ As long as Gaius Baltar's house is still OK, who cares?  You seriously have to wonder what the insurance premiums are on a house that literally has no access to fire hydrants.
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Jan 20, 2014 01:33
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Lead out in cuffs posted:What I mean is, there have been a bunch of high-profile business papers publishing the story over the past few days, alongside talks of large hedge funds shorting Canadian real estate. What I'm wondering is whether this will be the first stirrings of a change in the narrative leading to the inevitable downward spiral of panic selling. Could this be the year? Mark me down as a 'no'. Everyone from Robert Shiller to the IMF has been calling this market ridiculous for years and it's kept going up.
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Jan 20, 2014 01:50
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Cultural Imperial posted:Mark me down as a 'no'. Everyone from Robert Shiller to the IMF has been calling this market ridiculous for years and it's kept going up. I don't know where I heard this, but a great analogy is a morbidly-obese dude who ignores his doctors and consumes vast quantities of McDonalds daily, yet still keeps trucking on. It's easy to be an observer and predict, very confidently, that he'll eventually be in a world of trouble - but there's no telling when. It could be a month or ten years - some of those guys are resilient as hell.
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Jan 20, 2014 03:34
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I swear that was either three pages back in this very thread, or the canadian politics megathread.
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Jan 20, 2014 03:42
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Rime posted:I swear that was either three pages back in this very thread, or the canadian politics megathread. Yeah, that's entirely possible.
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Jan 20, 2014 03:44
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Lexicon posted:I don't know where I heard this, but a great analogy is a morbidly-obese dude who ignores his doctors and consumes vast quantities of McDonalds daily, yet still keeps trucking on. It's easy to be an observer and predict, very confidently, that he'll eventually be in a world of trouble - but there's no telling when. It could be a month or ten years - some of those guys are resilient as hell. it's not so much as a question is if as when whenever you get a asset bubble.
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Jan 20, 2014 07:24
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Lexicon posted:I don't know where I heard this... Me, like one page ago. t 
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Jan 20, 2014 07:52
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Lexicon posted:I don't know where I heard this, but a great analogy is a morbidly-obese dude who ignores his doctors and consumes vast quantities of McDonalds daily, yet still keeps trucking on. It's easy to be an observer and predict, very confidently, that he'll eventually be in a world of trouble - but there's no telling when. It could be a month or ten years - some of those guys are resilient as hell. Markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent, yadda yadda yadda
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Jan 20, 2014 10:32
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Franks Happy Place posted:Me, like one page ago. t Ah. Well,  then!etalian posted:it's not so much as a question is if as when whenever you get a asset bubble. That's why it's a great analogy. There's no question the dude will eventually keel over - we know this with certainty. It's a question of when.
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Jan 20, 2014 15:09
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colonel_korn posted:haha no kidding, I was at UW myself about 10 years ago and for most of my time there I rented a house with four other guys, paying about $400/mo each. That was about average, I think the most anyone would seriously consider paying for rent at the time was maybe $500/mo, and in the summer a lot of people were looking for cheap sublets closer to $300. Granted that was 10 years ago but I doubt that the average is much higher these days, especially given that students are paying more tuition now too. $800/mo is ludicrous to expect students to pay, heck I'm employed as a postdoc right now and I would have to think about paying that much for a one-bedroom, let alone to split a place with someone else. You probably wouldn't pay $20k/year to go to UW either, but the school is still bursting with international students paying that much. That's who the new student condos are aimed at.
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Jan 20, 2014 16:04
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Sassafras posted:I don't think rents that you or I paid as students 10+ years ago, prior to (probably) the biggest real estate boom in Canadian history, are terribly relevant to the present. I'm BC-based and my personal experience was that rents province-wide effectively doubled between 2004 and 2008. There hasn't been much movement since then, but I certainly know current students who have been paying $1000/mo, sometimes split between multiple people, to live in 1br units in houses chopped into 5-6 rental suites. Rents in Waterloo did not change much while I was there (03-08) nor have they changed much since after a quick glance at the rental boards: https://listings.och.uwaterloo.ca/Classifieds/Search/Results. I suspect the reason is because unless you have one of the shrinking number of RIM jobs (ha ha ha) in Waterloo or some other well-paying semi-permanent position, there is almost no reason to live there other than to study at UW/Laurier. $800/mo is nearly double the typical rate of a single-room sublet (example: co-op housing across the street from campus is $425-450 per room per month, http://www.wcri.coop/Housing/rates.aspx).
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Jan 20, 2014 16:51
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PhilippAchtel posted:" The latest Canadian jobs report was dismal, as its economy shed 45,000 jobs in December, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.9% to 7.2%" Ontario has been hemorrhaging jobs pretty badly. You see, the provincial government is Liberal. The lesbian is ruining the Ontario economy and making the country look bad. You'll notice Alberta has been steadily gaining jobs without the hindrance of the liberal elite. E: I've actually heard this come from someone's mouth. Math You fucked around with this message at 18:19 on Jan 20, 2014 |
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Jan 20, 2014 18:13
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eXXon posted:Rents in Waterloo did not change much while I was there (03-08) nor have they changed much since after a quick glance at the rental boards: https://listings.och.uwaterloo.ca/Classifieds/Search/Results. I suspect the reason is because unless you have one of the shrinking number of RIM jobs (ha ha ha) in Waterloo or some other well-paying semi-permanent position, there is almost no reason to live there other than to study at UW/Laurier. $800/mo is nearly double the typical rate of a single-room sublet (example: co-op housing across the street from campus is $425-450 per room per month, http://www.wcri.coop/Housing/rates.aspx). I still live in Waterloo and this is a really skewed view of the rental market. Yeah single-room sublets are super cheap compared to apartments, that's because you're subletting a single room. Those are both big compromises that come with a bunch of downsides. So when it comes to apartments, you're not just competing with other students (as with sublets) but you're also competing with actual families who need a place to live. A 1-bedroom apartment (not a 1-room bachelor pad, an apartment) in Waterloo starts at $800/month and goes up quickly. That video said the dude was renting his condo for $1600/month, obviously that's a stretch (it is a blatant sales pitch after all) but not totally outlandish. Sure you were a poor student when you were living here but not everyone in the city is. RIM's downfall hasn't hurt the tech sector as much as you'd think, there's still Google and SAP and D2L and Kik (and that's just the tech companies I can name off the top of my head). But yeah I guess that if you're not working there, or at one of the other major employers in the region, or working at one of the universities, or unless you're studying, or unless you actually grew up here like some of us did, there's no reason to live in Waterloo.
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Jan 20, 2014 18:21
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The marketing pitch specifically targeted renting 2 bedroom condos to UWaterloo students at $1600/month, not full-time professionals.
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Jan 20, 2014 18:38
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Yeah, at the very least it's completely disingenuous to suggest that you're drawing from a prospective renting pool of 50,000 UW/WLU students or whatever they said it was, when only a very small number could even consider paying that much.
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Jan 20, 2014 19:11
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RBC posted:Yes it is. Actually, after quick googling, statscan says the unemployment rate dropped significantly in the K-W area in the last few months even with seasonal adjustment (I'm not sure there are that many seasonal jobs in K-W anyhow). So go hog wild! It dropped greatly in Brantford and Barrie too, for what it's worth.
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Jan 20, 2014 19:43
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eXXon posted:The marketing pitch specifically targeted renting 2 bedroom condos to UWaterloo students at $1600/month, not full-time professionals. Oh, I actually skipped the last 30 seconds of it so I missed this- yeah that's a really ridiculous pitch. Not that I'd expect much better from any other 1:30 internet video pushing a particular investment.
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Jan 20, 2014 20:04
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Toronto leads North America in CBC posted:There are 130 highrise projects under construction in Toronto, more than in any other North American city. New York, one of the most culturally significant and economically important cities on Earth, ranks second to Toronto in terms of highrise construction. Take that as you will.
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Jan 21, 2014 19:02
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sitchensis posted:Toronto leads North America in
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Jan 21, 2014 19:27
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The fact that NYC has three times as many high rises and is still building almost as many as Toronto is pretty crazy.
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Jan 21, 2014 19:38
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You know, I just saw an ad for this anti-investing fraud campaign on the bus: [quote=InvestRight -- A program of the BC Securities Commission] Protect yourself If an investment you're interested has the characteristics of one of the five warning signs below—it’s okay to say ‘no’. #1 - No risk! There’s no such thing as a guaranteed investment: the higher the returns, the higher the risk. This type of sales pitch is often aimed at people who live on a fixed income or those near or in early retirement who are worried about having enough money. #2 - Profit like the pros! These scams are pitched as opportunities known only to a select few who are said to be making a lot of money. The scam artist convinces you that he or she has access to this inside information. An example of this is the‘prime bank’ scam. Investors are told about the existence of a secret market that only the world’s largest banks know about and are then given an exclusive opportunity to participate in this secret market. The catch is, secret prime bank markets don’t exist. #3 - Offshore, tax free! Fraudsters pitch this deal as a way to avoid paying taxes. They may try to convince you to move your money outside Canada to avoid taxes. They really want you to move it to an inaccessible offshore account. They also tell you to keep it a secret so that you don't benefit from the advice of financial advisors who might see through the scam. Read more on offshore investment schemes. #4 - Get in now! Scam artists use this tactic to pressure you into making a quick decision. They suggest they have secret information about a company that the general public doesn’t have. This kind of sales pitch appeals to your fear of missing out on a valuable opportunity. Take your time to research an investment advisor, salesperson, company, and investment before you invest. #5 - Your friends and family can’t be wrong! Scam artists target religious, ethnic, or close-knit groups by working their way into organizations and befriending members. This approach relies on the trust you place in the people you care about. Do a background check on the person who brings the investment opportunity to your attention - no matter how trustworthy. Report it and warn others If you have been approached or know of an investment that fits the description above, contact your provincial securities regulator immediately. In BC, contact BCSC Inquiries. You can also anonymously report suspicious activity through InvestRight’s Report a scam webpage. Residents from other Canadian provinces can find contact information for their provincial securities regulator at https://www.securities-administrators.ca. If you know a person who has put money into, or is considering contributing, to an investment like the one described above, give or send them this information, and encourage them to do more research. [/quote] And I wondered, just how many of the examples of terrible real estate investment "opportunities" materials we've seen posted in this thread would qualify. I mean, 1,2,4 and 5 seem to come up pretty regularly.
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Jan 21, 2014 21:58
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Kafka Esq. posted:The fact that NYC has three times as many high rises and is still building almost as many as Toronto is pretty crazy. It also has roughly 3 times the population so if we're assuming New York's real estate market is healthy something is very out of skew in Toronto. Edit: If you use metro areas New York is 4 times the size.
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Jan 21, 2014 22:02
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Kafka Esq. posted:The fact that NYC has three times as many high rises and is still building almost as many as Toronto is pretty crazy. I'm not sure how you can call one number that is 45% bigger than another number "almost as many".
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Jan 21, 2014 22:14
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Franks Happy Place posted:I'm not sure how you can call one number that is 45% bigger than another number "almost as many". That's condo math for you.
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Jan 21, 2014 22:52
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Franks Happy Place posted:I'm not sure how you can call one number that is 45% bigger than another number "almost as many". The same math used to make cardboard mobile home on rented plot cost ONLY 140k+.
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Jan 21, 2014 23:43
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sitchensis posted:Toronto leads North America in I remember reading a article on skyscraper/highrise boom construction being a sure sign of a bubble since the large cost of the buildings requires things such as cheap and easy credit.
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Jan 22, 2014 02:02
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It's one of those silly anecdotes or rules that really doesn't hold up to close examination, but there's certainly some truth in it. It's also a usually a sign that developer capital has totally captured city hall and the planning process.
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Jan 22, 2014 02:13
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This is somewhat of a general economy news piece, but it certainly doesn't bode well: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-22/canada-loses-haven-status-as-dollar-doesn-t-spark-exports.html quote:The dollar plunged to the lowest in more than four years today and returns on Canada’s benchmark stock index were less than half of U.S. equities last year, underscoring an economy beset by the slowest rebound in exports since World War II. Consumers are tapped out with record household debt and governments are more focused on erasing budget deficits than providing stimulus.
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Jan 23, 2014 00:59
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Guy DeBorgore posted:I still live in Waterloo and this is a really skewed view of the rental market. Yeah single-room sublets are super cheap compared to apartments, that's because you're subletting a single room. Those are both big compromises that come with a bunch of downsides. All of you are missing the important part, it hardly matters what the rent is. At best it covers carrying costs for investors. The important number is the market value of the unit and it's appreciation. The idea of a condo in Waterloo increasing in market value to the tune of 6+% every year like that advertisement is suggesting is hilarious. These people are buying 3 bedroom student rental condos for 360k in a real estate market where the average detached home is less than 300k. It makes no loving sense whatsoever. Students have NO EFFECT on the real estate market in a city.
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Jan 23, 2014 02:06
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