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ReindeerF posted:Rand's whole thing is this smug, head tilted back, mouth twisting around, would-you-please-stop-talking-so-i-can-educate-you affect that would be absolutely disastrous I think, especially among "independent" women. I dunno, maybe I'm misreading him, but leave aside policy and all the poo poo people think matters that doesn't, the guy himself really is not good for the role. I can't imagine it's only women he'd alienate early on and permanently, given how much his speech at Howard University did to popularize the verb "whitesplain." He's tailor made to appeal to the crumbling GOP base, and pretty much no one else.
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Jan 27, 2014 04:35
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The Insect Court posted:You're vastly overestimating Rand Paul's chances. Most of his buzz comes from the Paulistas, who have no pull whatsoever within the party establishment. He's not quite persona non grata within the GOP like his father was, but a lot of that is because his civil libertarian positions line up temporarily with the GOP's kneejerk rejection of everything Obama. It's almost impossible for someone as far from his party's ideological center on so many issues to win the nomination. And if there's a complete breakdown of the GOP establishment's control of the process, the likeliest beneficiary is some Tea Party friendly demagogue like Ted Cruz. Man, my jokes are really not working in this thread, that's two in a row that went down in flames.
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Jan 27, 2014 04:42
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If McConnell survives (which is a decent assumption), Rand will also have a nice set of favors tucked in his pocket with the backroom GOP guys. Might not be enough to get him the nod, but it could prevent him from being hostilely frozen out like Pops.
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Jan 27, 2014 04:48
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What kind of wrench would Grimes winning throw into the machine, though?
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Jan 27, 2014 05:18
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The Entire Universe posted:What kind of wrench would Grimes winning throw into the machine, though? Not much, Coryn would probably be the GOP senate leader since Stockman went AWOL in their primary.
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Jan 27, 2014 05:56
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Captain_Maclaine posted:I can't imagine it's only women he'd alienate early on and permanently, given how much his speech at Howard University did to popularize the verb "whitesplain." He's tailor made to appeal to the crumbling GOP base, and pretty much no one else.
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Jan 27, 2014 06:57
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The Warszawa posted:
Hillary is a woman. Woman appeal to minorities a lot more than white men. And the draw of white women to her more than makes up for any lack of skin color. Malley draws nobody additional. He draws less across the board of Obamas key Women/Black/Hispanic Trifecta and probably only increases numbers amongst East Coasters and maybe the irish but I seriously doubt it. He's not a serious candidate. Also are those Paul numbers among Republicans or General electorate. Because if they are amongst general elecotrate I'll shoot myself.
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Jan 27, 2014 07:45
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Thats a load of bull, people don't not run for president (or get taken seriously) because they aren't black enough or female enough. I'll let you in on a little secret, there aren't any black contenders in the Democratic field this year, or any Hispanics. I'd even say that there aren't any women either aside from Hillary but I'm sure someone will go on about Gillibrand or Warren or whatever.
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Jan 27, 2014 08:30
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The Insect Court posted:You're vastly overestimating Rand Paul's chances. Most of his buzz comes from the Paulistas, who have no pull whatsoever within the party establishment. He's not quite persona non grata within the GOP like his father was, but a lot of that is because his civil libertarian positions line up temporarily with the GOP's kneejerk rejection of everything Obama. It's almost impossible for someone as far from his party's ideological center on so many issues to win the nomination. And if there's a complete breakdown of the GOP establishment's control of the process, the likeliest beneficiary is some Tea Party friendly demagogue like Ted Cruz. Let's pretend Paul is not running and look at who else has a chance to win the nom. I see the shortlist as: -Christie (probably out now) -Bush (no) -Walker -Rubio -Perry if a few people get hit by lightning -Cruz if everything breaks just right for six months in a row -that's it How many of these people have less problems with all three wings than Rand Paul? I count one.
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Jan 27, 2014 08:53
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What about Ryan?
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Jan 27, 2014 08:55
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Not running, can't win anyway
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Jan 27, 2014 09:01
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You forgot Scott Brown.
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Jan 27, 2014 09:25
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How is Santorum not on that list? E: Honestly I think Santorum has 2016 primary in the bag. He won 2nd place last time and has become even more established and built more of a grassroots network since then. The only thing I can see derailing him is big-money donors who realize he can't possibly win the general and will bankroll who they see as the most electable guy. Looking at that list, I'd venture to hesitantly say "...Perry...?" as the one most electable in the general. Lovable scamp, wanna have a beer with him etc. Sergg fucked around with this message at 09:36 on Jan 27, 2014 |
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Jan 27, 2014 09:29
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They are not nominating an overt culture warrior who was so unacceptable to the middle that he lost by 18 points as a sitting Senator in Pennsylvania. There is a reasonable argument that the package shouldn't matter when every Republican would appoint social conservatives, but Santorum is uniquely toxic. e: Perry should have a real chance if he's merely competent when not pilled out of his mind.
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Jan 27, 2014 09:37
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There's probably thirty hours of tape of Santorum saying repugnant things.
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Jan 27, 2014 10:32
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OneThousandMonkeys posted:There's probably thirty hours of tape of Santorum saying repugnant things. Which doesn't hurt as much in the republican primary as it does in the general election.
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Jan 27, 2014 10:37
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I do believe a Rand Paul vs. Hillary Clinton general would produce the largest gender gap the electorate has ever seen
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Jan 27, 2014 15:04
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Agricola Frigidus posted:Which doesn't hurt as much in the republican primary as it does in the general election. The problem he will face, and why he will lose, is that the people who care about electability in the general are the same people who are able to organize themselves around a single acceptable candidate like Mitt Romney.
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Jan 27, 2014 17:12
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The Entire Universe posted:What kind of wrench would Grimes winning throw into the machine, though? The GOP establishment would still note with pleasure that Rand didn't go AWOL on their man. He's done his bit by not supporting Bevin. If Grimes wins all that means for them is longer odds of taking back the Senate.
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Jan 27, 2014 17:14
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Am I the only one who thinks Scott Walker will find success if he runs? He won the far right's support by busting the unions in Wisconsin and he's already sucked enough Koch dick to finance himself through a general.
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Jan 27, 2014 17:24
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OneThousandMonkeys posted:There's probably thirty hours of tape of Santorum saying repugnant things. Look, GOP primary results aren't going to depend on what the bleughs think.
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Jan 27, 2014 17:29
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Alter Ego posted:Am I the only one who thinks Scott Walker will find success if he runs? He won the far right's support by busting the unions in Wisconsin and he's already sucked enough Koch dick to finance himself through a general. He's definitely on the establishment shortlist if Christie's truly damaged beyond repair, which I don't think is the case.
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Jan 27, 2014 17:37
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comes along bort posted:He's definitely on the establishment shortlist if Christie's truly damaged beyond repair, which I don't think is the case. I'm curious--why don't you think this? If it was just the bridge thing Christie might have survived--but the floodgates that opened afterwards have basically turned him into a combination of Al Capone and Richard Nixon. That guy doesn't get elected to the Presidency.
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Jan 27, 2014 17:39
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A healthy amount of pessimism I guess.
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Jan 27, 2014 17:40
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I will have to agree with Arkane and Adar that Christie's downfall (could a thread title be "the bigger they are, the harder they fall" or something) easily puts Rand Paul into something of an early front runner status. I just feel he's played things a lot smarter than Cruz even though they are competing to occupy parts of GOP-space with considerable overlap. He's kind of remained in a zone where he could more plausibly assume the mantle of national candidate than Cruz could. If Scott Walker could pick up some political mojo this year he will replace Christie as the establishment favorite, though. Zwabu fucked around with this message at 18:07 on Jan 27, 2014 |
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Jan 27, 2014 18:05
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Oh, I have a feeling that Rand Paul's tendency to whitesplain things will get him in more trouble.
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Jan 27, 2014 18:07
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Didn't Rand just say something stops about how women are better off than men?
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Jan 27, 2014 18:10
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Paul's got a nonzero amount of fundraising and organizational capacity, which pretty much makes him the contender out of the non-Christie candidates by default.
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Jan 27, 2014 18:11
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UltimoDragonQuest posted:There is a reasonable argument that the package shouldn't matter when every Republican would appoint social conservatives, but Santorum is uniquely toxic. This is what's always scary to me about Republicans - they're all about equally crazy in policy preference, but only a fraction of them are seen as crazy publicly. The guy who manages not to come out as rape-denying or whatever is probably gonna vote for 99% of the same laws as the wacko, but the wacko draws all the fire. mdemone posted:Look, GOP primary results aren't going to depend on what the bleughs think. No, but they are dependent on what the billionaire sugar daddies think, and those guys aren't going to go for Santorum.
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Jan 27, 2014 18:12
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Today in Let's Be Outraged About Hillary, she speaks at the National Auto Dealer's Association and confesses that she hasn't driven a car since 1996. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fF5VFaCti44
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Jan 27, 2014 18:18
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Stormagetiton posted:No, but they are dependent on what the billionaire sugar daddies think, and those guys aren't going to go for Santorum. I thought he had his own one of those.
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Jan 27, 2014 18:48
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Joementum posted:Today in Let's Be Outraged About Hillary, she speaks at the National Auto Dealer's Association and confesses that she hasn't driven a car since 1996. More accurately she she says she hasn't been allowed to (by the secret service).
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Jan 27, 2014 19:47
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People over-estimate the amount of support that Libertarians have within the Republican Party. Ron Paul was never able to get better than 3rd place in any primary despite his funding and ground support. No doubt his network will switch gears to support Rand Paul but as it stands there are still more than enough hardcore social conservatives to elect a culture warrior. Also the precedent which all of you are aware of: McCain got 2nd place then was nominated. Romney got 2nd place then was nominated. Reagan got 2nd place then was nominated. Santorum is going to moderate his more extreme views publicly. Just going by the available evidence I'm gonna have to say that he'll win the nod and lose the general against Hillary and we'll have another president Clinton for 8 years. Rand Paul might take 2nd or 3rd place and mount a solid challenge in 2020.
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Jan 27, 2014 19:59
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Zwabu posted:I will have to agree with Arkane and Adar that Christie's downfall (could a thread title be "the bigger they are, the harder they fall" or something) easily puts Rand Paul into something of an early front runner status. I think this is true, and I also think he has a snowball chance in hell of getting elected. Which makes me feel good. I mean, as an Spaniard I'd by happy by you just keeping outright crazy people / sociopaths / warmongers out of the White House. And I look into the GOP and I see (besides Paul)... Jeb Bush? EDIT: I wouldn't mind Hillary as the President of the World. mastervj fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Jan 27, 2014 |
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Jan 27, 2014 20:00
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Sergg posted:People over-estimate the amount of support that Libertarians have within the Republican Party. Ron Paul was never able to get better than 3rd place in any primary despite his funding and ground support. No doubt his network will switch gears to support Rand Paul but as it stands there are still more than enough hardcore social conservatives to elect a culture warrior. The second place rule works a lot more consistently in years when the Republicans aren't blown out of the water. Pat Buchanan was the second place guy twice in a row and it didn't help him in either 1996 or 2000.
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Jan 27, 2014 20:07
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DynamicSloth posted:The second place rule works a lot more consistently in years when the Republicans aren't blown out of the water. Pat Buchanan was the second place guy twice in a row and it didn't help him in either 1996 or 2000. That and it isn't a very meaningful sample size in general.
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Jan 27, 2014 20:12
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DynamicSloth posted:More accurately she she says she hasn't been allowed to (by the secret service). Perhaps she can do burnouts with Biden at the Naval Observatory.
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Jan 27, 2014 20:14
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Joementum posted:Today in Let's Be Outraged About Hillary, she speaks at the National Auto Dealer's Association and confesses that she hasn't driven a car since 1996. That didn't take long. 
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Jan 27, 2014 20:18
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Joementum posted:Today in Let's Be Outraged About Hillary, she speaks at the National Auto Dealer's Association and confesses that she hasn't driven a car since 1996. I'm sure Barack Obama probably hasn't done any driving since declaring his candidacy in 2007, and he probably won't for a few years after 2016 either. Such is the way of Secret Service protection. I'm equally sure, however, that this fact won't stop the right from attempting to use it.
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Jan 27, 2014 20:18
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Alter Ego posted:Richard Nixon. That guy doesn't get elected to the Presidency. I'm really not sure what to say here.
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Jan 27, 2014 20:20
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