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Who will win?
This poll is closed.
Vishy Anand 3 2.26%
Magnus Carlsen 30 22.56%
Kirsan Ilyumzhinov 100 75.19%
Total: 133 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..
Carlsen-Aronian starting now in 15 minutes!

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Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

Hand Knit posted:

Carlsen-Aronian starting now in 15 minutes!

This game ended in a draw with Aronian acquiescing to a perpetual despite having some advantage.

Also, at Gibraltar, with news that will probably be mostly interesting to Twan - Kevin Spraggett completely murdered Nigel Short.

1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 a6 4. Ba4 d6 5. O-O Bd7 6. d4 b5 7. Bb3 exd4 8.
c3 dxc3 9. Nxc3 Na5 10. e5 Nxb3 11. axb3 Be7 12. Re1 Kf8 13. Bf4 Be6 14.
Nd4 d5 15. Qf3 h5 16. h3 Ke8 17. Red1 Qd7 18. Ndxb5 Rb8 19. Nxd5 axb5 20.
Nxe7 Qxe7 21. Ra8 Rc8 22. Qb7 1-0

That's just nasty.

Aggro
Apr 24, 2003

STRONG as an OX and TWICE as SMART
Jesus, that game plays out like a tutorial on abiding by general chess principles and developing your pieces. White gambits a pawn, accepts doubled isolated pawns on the b-file, gives up the Bishop pair, and still dominates because his pieces are far more active. Black's kingside never has a chance to get involved.

singe
Aug 24, 2008

I want to ride my bicycle.
Naka has an amazing position against Carlsen. He'll get clear first if he wins (Aronian already drew), might also be the first time he'll win against Carlsen in classic time controls.

Ernie.
Aug 31, 2012

I can't believe Naka just screwed it up. :(

Grimble
Jul 7, 2002

He will build a castle with garden on an island called Cheshire, and he is permitted to breed.
What the hell just happened in the Nakamura - Carlsen game?

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

Ernie. posted:

I can't believe Naka just screwed it up. :(

Carlsen's facial reactions are priceless. I hope someone here can gif them. Starting ~3:30 on the video feed, for the eventual replay.

Zwachro
Mar 7, 2003
C808BEA

Grimble posted:

What the hell just happened in the Nakamura - Carlsen game?
Naka hosed up twice, looks like!

OrangeKing
Dec 5, 2002

They do play in October!
I'm usually the guy who says that computer evaluation numbers can mislead you as to the actual chances in a position. But really, if you're at +5 or more for a dozen moves, you should probably bring home the point.

Edit: Haha, went back and watched the live video and commentary at the point Hand Knit suggested. My favorite comment is after they turned on the engine to see where Naka lost the thread: "this move is easy for the computer, because he calculates like a machine...which he is."

OrangeKing fucked around with this message at 19:11 on Feb 1, 2014

Zwachro
Mar 7, 2003
C808BEA
Speaking of computers, the Houdini the newspaper I'm watching is running suggested Nc3 for Nakamura's 48th move, which would seem a very good way to lose the piece in two moves for no apparent advantage... why did it think that was a good idea?

Obesity Example
Sep 6, 2004

I can't believe there's violence in mind

Zwachro posted:

Speaking of computers, the Houdini the newspaper I'm watching is running suggested Nc3 for Nakamura's 48th move, which would seem a very good way to lose the piece in two moves for no apparent advantage... why did it think that was a good idea?

I'd expect that to lead to a perpetual check. Can't see many good hiding places for the black king when white plays Qa8+ (after the ...Qc1+ and ...Qxc3 moves implied in your post).

VVV haha, or that

Obesity Example fucked around with this message at 20:13 on Feb 1, 2014

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..
Qc1+ is met with Nb1, holding both the knight and the pawn on a3.

Zwachro
Mar 7, 2003
C808BEA

Hand Knit posted:

Qc1+ is met with Nb1, holding both the knight and the pawn on a3.
Right, somehow managed not to consider that.

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

Zwachro posted:

Right, somehow managed not to consider that.

Black's plan right now is pretty straightforward, although difficult to actually execute (ignore the -3.5 score). Use his queen to dominate the centre of the board, and then advance his h-pawn far enough that white has to actively keep an eye on it. That should hopefully create enough lines to pull off some combination of a queen trade, and then advance both the e and a/b pawns while white's knight is pinned down guarding the h-pawn.

OrangeKing
Dec 5, 2002

They do play in October!
Best comment in the ChessBomb.com chat (which, like most chats, is usually awful) came when someone said they just started watching the game now and asked a question:

quote:

@wilhelm: Your timing is good, not much has happened in this game yet.

Oh, also updated the Fantasy Chess doc to reflect the February rating list. Not that much play in January, so not surprisingly, the top three stayed the same even though the ratings tightened somewhat (except for V for Vegas, who has a huge ratings lead over Flayer, Hand Knit and the rest of the pack).

OrangeKing fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Feb 1, 2014

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..
The inbuilt engine on the official cast is currently giving a line where Magnus gets three queens :laugh:

Zwachro
Mar 7, 2003
C808BEA
Haha nice thread title change.

Flayer
Sep 13, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Buglord
What a strange game. When I took a break from watching Nakamura seemed a few moves from winning and when I came back he was on the rack and pretty much done for. Haven't seen a turn around like that in a long time in top level chess. The scary thing is the blunder which cost the advantage (pushing the d-pawn) is exactly the kind of move I'd make not considering that white could sac the Knight.

LOOK I AM A TURTLE
May 22, 2003

"I'm actually a tortoise."
Grimey Drawer

Flayer posted:

What a strange game. When I took a break from watching Nakamura seemed a few moves from winning and when I came back he was on the rack and pretty much done for. Haven't seen a turn around like that in a long time in top level chess. The scary thing is the blunder which cost the advantage (pushing the d-pawn) is exactly the kind of move I'd make not considering that white could sac the Knight.

Yeah, this kind of thing doesn't happen too often in elite classical chess. Carlsen-Topalov from Morelia-Linares 2008 comes to mind: http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1487205 It was very similar in that Topalov played two consecutive blunders: The first one gave away the win, and the second one gave away the draw. After 34...Nc6?? it was something like a mate in 10 for Carlsen IIRC.

Spug
Dec 10, 2006

Then turn not pale, beloved snail, but come and join the dance.
This crazy level of turnaround is rarely seen, but I feel like Magnus more often than others manages to do it. We saw it at least one time (although not as bad) in the WC as well. He is awesome at not resigning and pushing and exploiting blunders in his lost positions. Almost like swindles...

Spug fucked around with this message at 08:37 on Feb 2, 2014

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..
Fifth and final round of Zurich today. Aronian has black against Caruana and Carlsen has black against Anand, so congrats to Carlsen on his tournament win, I guess.

singe
Aug 24, 2008

I want to ride my bicycle.
It's not over yet, I heard that the rapid section counts for 50% of the final score.

Zteuer
Nov 8, 2009
I think that the rapid section counts for 1/3 of the final score since the classic matches gave 2 points for victory. I think they said on the norwegian broadcast I follow, that rapid games would give 1 point. It was mentioned that it seemed better to have 2 points for classic wins than to have quarter points for rapid draws.

OrangeKing
Dec 5, 2002

They do play in October!

Zteuer posted:

I think that the rapid section counts for 1/3 of the final score since the classic matches gave 2 points for victory. I think they said on the norwegian broadcast I follow, that rapid games would give 1 point. It was mentioned that it seemed better to have 2 points for classic wins than to have quarter points for rapid draws.

What's important is that the rapid doesn't count for fantasy chess. :colbert:

V for Vegas
Sep 1, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER
Can the league tournaments, rules and spreadsheet be posted in the OP?

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

V for Vegas posted:

Can the league tournaments, rules and spreadsheet be posted in the OP?

Sure - someone post the version I should add to the OP.

OrangeKing
Dec 5, 2002

They do play in October!

Hand Knit posted:

Sure - someone post the version I should add to the OP.

Here's the url for the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhEaxFpoLPbodHRMc2hDT2RiN2pOb2hkMDN5Y21MaFE&usp=sharing

I think the tournament list will be a little fluid, but we can start with this one:

Gibraltar Masters Open
Zurich Chess Challenge
Reykjavik Open
Candidates Tournament
Women's Grand Prix: Khanty-Mansiysk
Poikovsky Karpov Tournament
FIDE Grand Prix: Event #1
Women's Grand Prix: Tbilisi
Norway Chess
Alekhine Memorial
Tal Memorial
FIDE Grand Prix: Event #2
Chess Olympiad
Women's Grand Prix: Erdenet
FIDE Grand Prix: Event #3
World Chess Championship

My rule of thumb is to include anything that 2700chess.com expects to have "many 2700+ players," along with the closed invitationals with several elite players in them. That's along with the promised tournaments, included the Women's Grand Prix. One question that I leave up to the group: should we include the Women's World Championship (a knockout event)?

As for rules, here are the scoring, add/drop and waiver rules, which are really all we should need going forward.

Teams receive one point for each classical win achieved by a player in an approved event, and .5 points for every draw achieved by a player in those events. Each month, when FIDE releases a ratings list, the average rating of each team will be calculated. The top three teams in average rating will receive bonus points (3-2-1, respectively).

Each team may make up to three add/drops during the course of the year. Moves happen immediately, with the exception that players added while they're playing in an event will not earn points or their team until after that event concludes.

When a team drops a player, that player will go to the waiver wire. They will remain there for one week, during which time any team may claim them. If there are multiple claims, the team with the highest waiver priority will get the player. Waiver rankings reset each month, with the team in last place having the highest priority. A successful claim will move a team to the bottom of the waiver rankings. If a player is not claimed during the waiver period, they become a standard free agent.

OrangeKing fucked around with this message at 07:15 on Feb 4, 2014

Flayer
Sep 13, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Buglord
Vitiugov you took your free bye and half-point in Gibraltar round 7?? That doesn't score me any points you imbecile!

Grimble
Jul 7, 2002

He will build a castle with garden on an island called Cheshire, and he is permitted to breed.
Carlsen - Aronian in 15 minutes should be good. Both are playing really well in Zurich.

Spug
Dec 10, 2006

Then turn not pale, beloved snail, but come and join the dance.

Grimble posted:

Carlsen - Aronian in 15 minutes should be good. Both are playing really well in Zurich.
Aronian took that home with no problems. Aronian 9, Carlsen 8, very exciting. Poor Anand got hammered.

And now, Re: thread title, Carlsen – Nakamura.

Spug
Dec 10, 2006

Then turn not pale, beloved snail, but come and join the dance.
Oh and Naka actually managed a draw. Even more exciting.

OrangeKing
Dec 5, 2002

They do play in October!

Flayer posted:

Vitiugov you took your free bye and half-point in Gibraltar round 7?? That doesn't score me any points you imbecile!

These will probably count anyway just because I'm going to be too lazy to go through every open event and see who took byes. Anyway, in the end it usually doesn't affect their scores very much. Congratulations, .5 for you!

Spug
Dec 10, 2006

Then turn not pale, beloved snail, but come and join the dance.
And congratulations to Carlsen for winning after drawing the last game exactly the way he drew the eighth game in the WC! He needs to work on his rapid play though.

Flayer
Sep 13, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Buglord
My boy Vitiugov has won in the very last round of Gibraltar to catch Chucky, who could only draw. Into a play-off they go. I knew Nikita was my ace, if only he didn't take that bye!

silvergoose
Mar 18, 2006

IT IS SAID THE TEARS OF THE BWEENIX CAN HEAL ALL WOUNDS




Flayer posted:

My boy Vitiugov has won in the very last round of Gibraltar to catch Chucky, who could only draw. Into a play-off they go. I knew Nikita was my ace, if only he didn't take that bye!

Pretty happy with my Ivanchuk pick, gotta say.

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..

Flayer posted:

My boy Vitiugov has won in the very last round of Gibraltar to catch Chucky, who could only draw. Into a play-off they go. I knew Nikita was my ace, if only he didn't take that bye!

Does Gibraltar do a playoff or do they just split the money between Chucky, Vitiugov, and (likely) Cheparinov?

My pick for the tournament, Pavel Eljanov, had a pretty bad time. At least if he beats Pogonina in the last round (with black, mind you) he gets 6.5/10.

Flayer
Sep 13, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Buglord
It's a play-off for the outright winner, no shared prize. It will take place today, which is fun.

I also had Navarra in the mix but he failed out pretty hard, finishing well below where his rating expected. I had no hopes for him anyway, prime trade fodder.

Flayer
Sep 13, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Buglord
2 rapid games between Chucky and Nikita were draws. Chucky has sacrificed his Queen for equal material in the first Blitz game.

Edit: Vitiugov ended up taking the first Blitz game where each player had less than 10 seconds left in a Q v BKK endgame. Fun stuff.

Flayer fucked around with this message at 18:40 on Feb 6, 2014

Rene Rancourt
Mar 26, 2007

Was my contract good for you, too?
My boy Cheparinov!

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V for Vegas
Sep 1, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER
This should be the format for the WC this year

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