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semicolonsrock
Aug 26, 2009

chugga chugga chugga

mike- posted:

Here is another interesting perspective on the Facebook/Whatsapp buyout, from a defensive move perspective. More importantly, it gives thoughts on valuation for preemptive actions.

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2014/02/if-we-dont-do-it-our-competitors-will_26.html

My personal motto is if you are interested in valuation and you aren't reading everything Damodaran writes you are a dick.

This was a great read.

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Lazy Broker
Jul 9, 2013

Whatcha gonna do? When they come for you?

alnilam posted:

I've been having fun this week buying weekly 185 SPY puts any time the S&P dawdles above 1850, and then selling down in the 1840s. Been scalping a nice 20-30% each time, so even with small investments it's been nice.

I think I'm gonna quit while I'm ahead on that front, it's been several days of the S&P consolidating at that 1850 resistance, so it could either break out real soon (Janet Yellen tomorrow?) or precipitously fall. Not confident enough about the latter, considering this bonkers bull market lately, so I'm just gonna wait and see.

If you have some money to throw around having a small position does not hurt. I shorted some SPY in the new highs just in case.

Gamesguy
Sep 7, 2010

New highs and then consolidation(with small caps going higher) is a dangerous short.

nebby posted:

I know it's not really trading per se, but as most probably know Mt.Gox, the main bitcoin exchange, evaporated and several hundred million dollars worth of bitcoins went with it. If you need a reminder of why you should have stops in place, hedge, avoid leverage, and diversify your investments this thread of people who literally lost millions on this might be worth scanning through:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1yv26o/gox_horror_story_thread_how_much_did_you_lose/

the bitcoin thread is of course yukking it up but i feel pretty bad for people despite how stupid they were.

Mtgox is a cautionary tale against unregulated or poorly regulated foreign brokers more than anything else though. In the US something like mtgox would never happen, when MF global went under no client lost money despite it violating regulations regarding the separation of client and company accounts.

Gamesguy fucked around with this message at 04:52 on Feb 27, 2014

berzerker
Aug 18, 2004
"If I could not go to heaven but with a party, I would not go there at all."

Gamesguy posted:

New highs and then consolidation(with small caps going higher) is a dangerous short.


Mtgox is a cautionary tale against unregulated or poorly regulated foreign brokers more than anything else though. In the US something like mtgox would never happen, when MF global went under no client lost money despite it violating regulations regarding the separation of client and company accounts.

Also a reminder not to put all your money in the accounts of Magic the Gathering Online Exchange.

nebby
Dec 21, 2000
resident mog
Yeah my point was less about MtGox per se, and more about that thread letting you see directly the result of the greed that led to irresponsible risk taking and in turn financial ruin. The same psychological urges that caused people to put their life savings into bitcoin also cause people to gamble in the stock market recklessly.

Lazy Broker
Jul 9, 2013

Whatcha gonna do? When they come for you?

berzerker posted:

Also a reminder not to put all your money in the accounts of Magic the Gathering Online Exchange.

The funny thing is that it is the true meaning of MTGOX

lostleaf
Jul 12, 2009

Gamesguy posted:

New highs and then consolidation(with small caps going higher) is a dangerous short.


Mtgox is a cautionary tale against unregulated or poorly regulated foreign brokers more than anything else though. In the US something like mtgox would never happen, when MF global went under no client lost money despite it violating regulations regarding the separation of client and company accounts.

I don't see why this can't happen to US brokers. There are zero US regulations regarding bitcoin traders and brokerages. There's no federal insurance to protect speculators from fraud or incompetence.

Arakan
May 10, 2008

After some persuasion, Fluttershy finally opens up, and Twilight's more than happy to oblige in doing her best performance as a nice, obedient wolf-puppy.
I think he means brokers in the real world aka not bitcoin brokers

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

lostleaf posted:

I don't see why this can't happen to US brokers. There are zero US regulations regarding bitcoin traders and brokerages. There's no federal insurance to protect speculators from fraud or incompetence.

There are, actually. FinCen has issued guidance, and MtGox actually had $5.5M they had in the US seized a year ago for violating the rules. Deposits may not be FDIC insured, but the problems that brought Gox down in Japan (fantastically poor record-keeping and management) would be illegal here.

The reason there isn't a US-based bitcoin exchange right now, is because everyone who has tried to set one up has run afoul of alert regulators and banks.

jvick
Jun 24, 2008

WE ARE
PENN STATE
Been riding this JCP wave the past couple weeks. Re-bought at $5.25 the other day, big up day for me!


edit: aaaaaaaaand I'm out.

jvick fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Feb 27, 2014

Lazy Broker
Jul 9, 2013

Whatcha gonna do? When they come for you?

jvick posted:

Been riding this JCP wave the past couple weeks. Re-bought at $5.25 the other day, big up day for me!


edit: aaaaaaaaand I'm out.

Congrats!

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


I bought FSLR calls ahead of their earnings report on Tuesday. It didn't go well, and the stock was down 9% as a result. I happened to buy Mar calls instead of weeklys since the premium wasn't too different, so I wasn't going to do anything with my options that were now way OTM... except that it's now up 8% today. Stocks, why you so cray cray? :allears:

Gamesguy
Sep 7, 2010

Up 200%+ on some indice calls again, hope nobody tried to short this. :)

jmzero
Jul 24, 2007

quote:

Up 200%+ on some indice calls again, hope nobody tried to short this.

I've been trying out some more active trading with small'ish money over the last couple months. So far the lesson I've learned is that this is super easy and stocks only go up.

God I'm going to get destroyed (no actual worries, my significant investments are still in boredom land).

VVV: Whoops - sorry for triggering all that.

jmzero fucked around with this message at 22:34 on Feb 28, 2014

dogpower
Dec 28, 2008
So I have some extra U.S cash in my investing account $1500 (I'm Canadian) and I want to use it up.

I'm thinking of either AIG or Bank of America for a long term stock hold that I would just forget about. Leaning towards AIG because I feel like it has more upside.

Any thoughts?

tiananman
Feb 6, 2005
Non-Headkins Splatoma

dogpower posted:

So I have some extra U.S cash in my investing account $1500 (I'm Canadian) and I want to use it up.

I'm thinking of either AIG or Bank of America for a long term stock hold that I would just forget about. Leaning towards AIG because I feel like it has more upside.

Any thoughts?

Why not SPY if you're looking for a long-term holding? I like WFC as a long term financial holding. Both pay a bigger yield.

Lazy Broker
Jul 9, 2013

Whatcha gonna do? When they come for you?

Gamesguy posted:

Up 200%+ on some indice calls again, hope nobody tried to short this. :)

I did short some of it but not much so I am willing to take these losses. Waiting a little longer in my shorts.

The USD is getting burned and inflation rising sad to see this happening.

jmzero posted:

I've been trying out some more active trading with small'ish money over the last couple months. So far the lesson I've learned is that this is super easy and stocks only go up.

God I'm going to get destroyed (no actual worries, my significant investments are still in boredom land).

This is painful to read. Never ever believe this.

Lazy Broker fucked around with this message at 18:32 on Feb 28, 2014

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Sanky Panky posted:

I did short some of it but not much so I am willing to take these losses. Waiting a little longer in my shorts.

The USD is getting burned and inflation rising sad to see this happening.


This is painful to read. Never ever believe this.

Safe as houses.

resident
Dec 22, 2005

WE WERE ALL UP IN THAT SHIT LIKE A MUTHAFUCKA. IT'S CLEANER THAN A BROKE DICK DOG.

Sanky Panky posted:

This is painful to read. Never ever believe this.

Holy poo poo you really couldn't tell he was being sarcastic?

silvergoose
Mar 18, 2006

IT IS SAID THE TEARS OF THE BWEENIX CAN HEAL ALL WOUNDS




resident posted:

Holy poo poo you really couldn't tell he was being sarcastic?

Wanted to post this, didn't want to sound like a dick.

Lazy Broker
Jul 9, 2013

Whatcha gonna do? When they come for you?

resident posted:

Holy poo poo you really couldn't tell he was being sarcastic?

I have seen worse posts in this thread.

tiananman
Feb 6, 2005
Non-Headkins Splatoma

Sanky Panky posted:

I have seen worse posts in this thread.

After all that stuff about Australia not too long ago, I don't know what to believe.

nebby
Dec 21, 2000
resident mog

lightpole posted:

Safe as houses.
Who said this again and what happened to them? IIRC this was said in reference to loving ZNGA, so did that guy just bow out after getting eviscerated?

semicolonsrock
Aug 26, 2009

chugga chugga chugga

Sanky Panky posted:

I have seen worse posts in this thread.

Read the sentence right after that one, I think.

Gamesguy
Sep 7, 2010

Sat on my hands too long and got scared out by that bear trap.

FML.

ohgodwhat
Aug 6, 2005

My VIX puts were doing great until noon or so! Ouch...

Gmaz
Apr 3, 2011

New DLC for Aoe2 is out: Dynasties of India

nebby posted:

Who said this again and what happened to them? IIRC this was said in reference to loving ZNGA, so did that guy just bow out after getting eviscerated?
It was actually used ironically but everyone jumped on it IIRC

dogpower
Dec 28, 2008

tiananman posted:

Why not SPY if you're looking for a long-term holding? I like WFC as a long term financial holding. Both pay a bigger yield.

The majority of my money is in index investing but using Canadian money. I converted some Canadian money to U.S when it was a 1:1 parity and used the U.S money to buy some U.S stocks

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

nebby posted:

Who said this again and what happened to them? IIRC this was said in reference to loving ZNGA, so did that guy just bow out after getting eviscerated?

Was used ironically but I think the context was perfect.

Dogo
Sep 24, 2007
Nice bounceback week for Target. Wish it made it to $53 first to hit my second buy trigger but its nice to be back in the green a little bit (got in at $59 on the way down).

Pudgygiant
Apr 8, 2004

Garnet and black? More like gold and blue or whatever the fuck colors these are
How is it legal for Cook to say what he said about Apple's energy initiatives? As cool as it was for him to say it (even if it's just a bunch of :jerkbag:) his legal responsibility is ROI.

Gamesguy
Sep 7, 2010

Pudgygiant posted:

How is it legal for Cook to say what he said about Apple's energy initiatives? As cool as it was for him to say it (even if it's just a bunch of :jerkbag:) his legal responsibility is ROI.

Because it's not illegal. Contrary to what many people believe, corporations are about more than maximum profit. If the shareholders don't like it they can vote in a new board and replace the management.

Its Miller Time
Dec 4, 2004

What does "Fund is long the November 2014 convertible bond and short a 70% equity delta. Parity 101%" mean? What's a 70% equity delta.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

MrBigglesworth posted:

I manually got out of TSLA at 212 from 61 instead of letting my trailing limit work as I used to.

Past 3 times I was in Telsa there was always a large pullback that dumped me out with my trigger. The one time I decide to not let it ride and Im out $38/share profit on top of what I already had. Oh well, hindsight and all, still a healthy gain!

I never understand why people don't use staggered trailing stops, rather than selling 100% of their position. Are people that locked into boolean thinking? :psyduck:

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

tiananman posted:

After all that stuff about Australia not too long ago, I don't know what to believe.

I was curious about this and went back to read the last few pages and, wow, holy poo poo. That was like every single conversation I've had with my older relatives who are mystified as to why I don't want to buy my first home yet, and honestly, genuinely believe that the housing market will always go up.

Napoleon I
Oct 31, 2005

Goons of the Fifth, you recognize me. If any man would shoot his emperor, he may do so now.
So I've stashed away about $25,000 I plan to invest/gamble on the market. Unfortunately, I'm a lawyer, and my firm's policy forbids "speculative" investments (options, shorts), and makes it difficult to trade individual stocks (I need compliance clearance before trading, can potentially be locked into a position for several months or longer). As such, I'm planning on sticking largely with ETFs for my investment needs, although I'd be welcome to individual long-term stock picks. I'm currently focused on optimizing my returns/liquidity on a 3-5 year horizon, as I have semi-concrete plans to start my own firm with a friend in that time frame, rather than paying off my student loans or planning for retirement.

Any input on my asset allocation/fund choices, outlined below? My thoughts are that I expect a sideways year for the stock market, given the historic highs and (relatively) weak economy. I realize this portfolio has a lot of exposure to interest rate risk, and would also appreciate any cheap ways to hedge interest rate risk (maybe a short treasury ETF?)

-15% BDC ETFs (BDCS?)
-10% REITs (KBWY/REM?)
-15% High-Yield Bonds (HYLD/BKLN/ANGL?)
-15% Preferred Stocks (PGX/PXFX?)
-10% MLPs (KYN?)
-15% Dividend Funds/Stocks (VYM/SDOG/BPT?)
-15% Growth Funds/Stocks (DXJ/no idea)
-5% Convertible Bonds (CWB)

semicolonsrock
Aug 26, 2009

chugga chugga chugga
Went ahead and bought the 20 most shorted stocks on the NYSE as % float at the start of this year since I'm too lazy to prove the same point with backtesting. We'll see how it goes!

e: not with real $ obviously, just curious

Michael Transactions
Nov 11, 2013

nebby posted:

Who said this again and what happened to them? IIRC this was said in reference to loving ZNGA, so did that guy just bow out after getting eviscerated?

lol i forgot about this. yeah i htink he was referencing znga or gourpon lol

Michael Transactions
Nov 11, 2013

Fuschia tude posted:

I never understand why people don't use staggered trailing stops, rather than selling 100% of their position. Are people that locked into boolean thinking? :psyduck:

when youre wrong youre wrong.

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Gamesguy
Sep 7, 2010

Picked up some RSX and US indice calls. Smallish position betting the Ukraine situation de-escalates.

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