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morning wood posted:Speaking of blocks rotating in/out of standard, what is going to happen to values of the RTR cards when that block rotates out? Are they going to tank? If it's not played in Modern, Legacy, or possibly EDH, it will tank.
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Mar 6, 2014 19:48
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morning wood posted:Speaking of blocks rotating in/out of standard, what is going to happen to values of the RTR cards when that block rotates out? Are they going to tank? toadee posted:If it's not played in Modern, Legacy, or possibly EDH, it will tank. Which means a good chunk of them will tank I assume?
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Mar 6, 2014 19:50
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OssiansFolly posted:Which means a good chunk of them will tank I assume? Yup. Biggest losers look like Sphinx's Rev and Jace. They just aren't played outside of standard really. Sphinx's Rev is I think a 1 or 2 of in a couple of Modern decks so it could hold some value but it's not going to be $35 unless something new comes along that needs it.
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Mar 6, 2014 19:52
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OssiansFolly posted:Which means a good chunk of them will tank I assume? Yes. Personally if you don't play standard or don't see yourself playing anything other than your current deck you have now, sell your RTR stuff now. Also Sphinx is only $20  Verdict and abrupt decay will also retain their value.
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Mar 6, 2014 19:52
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Yeah Abrupt Decay is a very good pickup. It will most likely rise until it gets reprinted, which will take some number of years.
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Mar 6, 2014 19:54
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Mortimer posted:Yeah Wizards in their ivory tower throw down a tiny handful of goyfs and bobs and say "Are you satisfied? We reprinted them like you asked!" Seriously, what amount of goyfs were printed in the entire run? < 1000? Hyperbole aside, which I know your joking about, even if MMA followed the tiniest expansion print run in the history of the game (Legends) which it definitely didn't for lots of reasons, You'd still have 19,500 Goyfs printed. Even something like an incredibly tiny short run of a single card like the Dragon Con promo, had about 250,000+ Copies printed. Small print runs still mean hundreds of thousands of copies. That's from 1994. Chances are now a "small print runs" means significantly more. Wouldn't surprise me to find its a million or more copies. Ciprian Maricon fucked around with this message at 19:57 on Mar 6, 2014 |
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Mar 6, 2014 19:55
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The most likely cards to rise post-rotation are cards that don't really see play in Standard. Be picking up Abrupt Decay, Deathrite Shaman, and foil Rest In Peace.
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Mar 6, 2014 19:55
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:All you people expecting fetches in standard are just wishful thinking. I'll That  could've bought you 1/10th of a fetch.Edit: what the hell I'm in.  for a Fetchland reprint in standard within the next 3-4 blocks.
TheKingofSprings fucked around with this message at 19:59 on Mar 6, 2014 |
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Mar 6, 2014 19:55
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If you want an example of a price crash, look at Thragtusk's price history. $20 as long as it was in standard (despite being in a precon) but the moment M13 rotated it plummeted.
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Mar 6, 2014 19:56
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Literally The Worst posted:Why? Fetches aren't inherently broken, and reprinting them in standard is the only way to make the ONS fetches modern legal (which is a thing they want to do). Several reasons. 1) They just reprinted a 10 land cycle (the shocks). I don't see them doing the same again so quickly, considering they have other cycles to fill, like enemy scarslands, say. 2) The Zendikar fetches were an aberration already, and the reduced-shuffling mandate is stronger now than ever. They were only included because Zen was a land centric set and the old fetches were such favourites. 3) They actually haven't said anything (afaik) about wanting to make onslaught fetches modern legal. 4) Notwithstanding they rarely let secondary market influence what goes in to sets all that much anyways, at the time they were planning the blocks I'm talking about (now until Q2 '15), i.e. 9 - 18 months ago, fetches were at reasonable prices. They wouldn't have put them in as a pressure release valve if there wasn't yet any pressure. e: TheKingofSprings posted:That I notice no one took me up on my bet 
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Mar 6, 2014 19:58
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:I notice no one took me up on my bet See above.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:00
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:3) They actually haven't said anything (afaik) about wanting to make onslaught fetches modern legal. Maro, when asked about this (printing Onslaught fetches to get all 10 into Modern), said something along the lines of 'That certainly is a fetching idea...'. Which is about as positive of a statement about future printing as you can get from him.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:01
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I'm tempted to accept the but it would depend on what the exact terms are.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:01
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Magic Finance is just insane right now. The market knows collectively that there is little to no relief coming in the lead up to modern PTQ season as far as reprints. Even worse is we know there will probably be a few reprints in the modern event deck, conspiracy and m15 but no idea what. I'm really considering selling a bunch of poo poo in May or June that I'm not actively using, I can probably recoup every dollar I've spent in the last year getting back into magic by selling off snaps, fetches, nobles, and a few other things. loving Defense Grid just spiked to $8+ on tcgplayer. I can't wait to see what this weekend brings. 
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Mar 6, 2014 20:01
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:Several reasons. Fastlands aren't a modern staple and Maro has talked about how they don't like having the fetch cycle split between two formats and how the Onslaught fetches wouldn't break modern if they suddenly became legal. Also, unless a supplementary product had a massive print run you wouldn't see the dip in prices that they're hoping for that you'd get with a standard reprint. I don't know if we'll see them in the fall set, but we'll see them in standard fairly "soon".
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Mar 6, 2014 20:02
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TheKingofSprings posted:See above. OK cool, but I said sets and you said blocks. Just to spell it out I'm betting they won't be in M15, Huey, Dewey, or Louie. Not related to the bet, but my personal prediction is they'll be rares in the next Modern Masters, and I anticipate that to release maybe as early as Spring 2015.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:06
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Literally The Worst posted:Fastlands aren't a modern staple and Maro has talked about how they don't like having the fetch cycle split between two formats and how the Onslaught fetches wouldn't break modern if they suddenly became legal. Also, unless a supplementary product had a massive print run you wouldn't see the dip in prices that they're hoping for that you'd get with a standard reprint. You are right Fastlands aren't a modern staple. I'm arguing what is and isn't a modern staple doesn't have much bearing on what goes in to new sets. They design for the standard format first and foremost. You are also right there's no reason why they couldn't put onslaught fetches into a modern legal set (except for shuffling blah blah). I'm just saying that that's no reason to think they will any time soon either.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:08
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:All you people expecting fetches in standard are just wishful thinking. I'll Without duals they make pretty poor fixers, compared to what we've had in the past 5-6 years. They were good in Zendikar standard, but that's almost entirely because of landfall shenanigans, Hawks, and Jace brainstroms. By the time you got to Zen/Scars standard, aggro decks were running 12 but control decks were barely running them, even alongside Jace. Fetches are fine for Standard, and coming back would almost certainly be nowhere near as good as they were the last time they were in.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:09
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:4) Notwithstanding they rarely let secondary market influence what goes in to sets all that much anyways, at the time they were planning the blocks I'm talking about (now until Q2 '15), i.e. 9 - 18 months ago, fetches were at reasonable prices. They wouldn't have put them in as a pressure release valve if there wasn't yet any pressure. WotC doesn't talk about secondary market influence on products but it's not like they randomly just decided that they were going to reprint Thoughtseize, Mutavault, and Remand in non-limited-run products. Fuzzy Mammal posted:OK cool, but I said sets and you said blocks. Just to spell it out I'm betting they won't be in M15, Huey, Dewey, or Louie. Introducing Onslaught fetches to Modern through a limited release product both would require a redefining of how Modern legality works and almost definitely spike the prices of Onslaught fetches since the demand increase would be massive. If Onslaught fetches enter Modern -- which all signs point to -- they'll need to enter through Standard.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:11
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Huxley posted:Without duals they make pretty poor fixers, compared to what we've had in the past 5-6 years. They were good in Zendikar standard, but that's almost entirely because of landfall shenanigans, Hawks, and Jace brainstroms. You heard it here first folks, Return to Return to Ravnica (RRR) block to release in 2016, with brand new Jace, Brooding Brainsman and a reprint of all your favorite lands
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Mar 6, 2014 20:12
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Fetches in Standard with Courser of Kruphix would be cool, which is why I don't think it will happen.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:12
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jassi007 posted:Magic Finance is just insane right now. The market knows collectively that there is little to no relief coming in the lead up to modern PTQ season as far as reprints. Even worse is we know there will probably be a few reprints in the modern event deck, conspiracy and m15 but no idea what. I'm really considering selling a bunch of poo poo in May or June that I'm not actively using, I can probably recoup every dollar I've spent in the last year getting back into magic by selling off snaps, fetches, nobles, and a few other things. I think we're starting to see what happens when the magic as investment portfolio kool-aid gets drunk by people outside of the previous relatively small circle. There have always been more valuable and less valuable cards in Magic, of course, and value to be made by trading, but even as recently as a few years ago it wasn't that bad outside of stuff like Power and Legends cards. Now all of a sudden rampant inflation is the new normal.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:14
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:OK cool, but I said sets and you said blocks. Just to spell it out I'm betting they won't be in M15, Huey, Dewey, or Louie. Pro for MMA2: Shuffling effects Con: Completing land cycles is now a thing Only wizards really knows which one outweighs the other, and that I think determines which way it goes, in standard or in MMA2. My feeling is that availability/secondary market + completing the cycles is going to push them to put it in standard.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:15
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jassi007 posted:Magic Finance is just insane right now. The market knows collectively that there is little to no relief coming in the lead up to modern PTQ season as far as reprints. Even worse is we know there will probably be a few reprints in the modern event deck, conspiracy and m15 but no idea what. I'm really considering selling a bunch of poo poo in May or June that I'm not actively using, I can probably recoup every dollar I've spent in the last year getting back into magic by selling off snaps, fetches, nobles, and a few other things.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:18
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JerryLee posted:I think we're starting to see what happens when the magic as investment portfolio kool-aid gets drunk by people outside of the previous relatively small circle. There have always been more valuable and less valuable cards in Magic, of course, and value to be made by trading, but even as recently as a few years ago it wasn't that bad outside of stuff like Power and Legends cards. Now all of a sudden rampant inflation is the new normal. It has everything to do with Magic continuing to grow. People were having this same discussion not very long ago, kept looking for reasons this Magic "bubble" was going to burst, its not a bubble and its not driven by people speculating, its just Magic is still growing. EDIT: I don't mean this negatively but aren't you pretty new to the game? Either way, the same was happening going into Innistrad, lots of relatively common cards from Scars block were hitting prices that were way out of the norm for standard, and people were looking for reasons why, people blamed SCG and Speculators, lots of reasons but it all came back to the game continuing to grow at a rate people didn't think was possible. Ciprian Maricon fucked around with this message at 20:24 on Mar 6, 2014 |
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Mar 6, 2014 20:21
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JerryLee posted:I think we're starting to see what happens when the magic as investment portfolio kool-aid gets drunk by people outside of the previous relatively small circle. There have always been more valuable and less valuable cards in Magic, of course, and value to be made by trading, but even as recently as a few years ago it wasn't that bad outside of stuff like Power and Legends cards. Now all of a sudden rampant inflation is the new normal. Speaking as somebody who has a pretty good view into how the market works: a tiny percentage of this is speculation, most of this is simple supply and demand. The Magic playerbase is growing like crazy. The interest in formats that aren't Standard as a whole is growing like crazy, with both Modern and EDH taking off. After the last pro tour Amulet Combo pieces and Blue Moon pieces were selling insanely for me even at the new inflated prices, to people who were actually playing with them and not speculators, because suddenly thousands of people are rushing to build the new hot deck and there just aren't so many Teferis out there. I wouldn't categorize this as a speculative bubble, I'd categorize this as a card availability issue.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:22
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Korak posted:Roguedeckbuilder has been talking about how big this new bubble is and I'm starting to agree. I mean when people are legitimately schizophrenic enough to buy up copies of Teferi because it's a 1 of in a sideboard of an interesting meta game picked deck, something is wrong with "speculation." There are funny things happening to certain cards like Teferi because of the MTGFinance community but Scalding Tarn is not 100 dollars because people are speculating.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:25
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Stinky Pit posted:EDIT: I don't mean this negatively but aren't you pretty new to the game? Either way, the same was happening going into Innistrad, lots of relatively common cards from Scars block were hitting prices that were way out of the norm for standard, and people were looking for reasons why, people blamed SCG and Speculators, lots of reasons but it all came back to game continuing to grow at a rate people didn't think was possible. I've been playing since like 1999, enough to remember when the super high ticket cards in Standard (Masticore  ) were like $20.Saeku posted:Speaking as somebody who has a pretty good view into how the market works: a tiny percentage of this is speculation, most of this is simple supply and demand. The Magic playerbase is growing like crazy. The interest in formats that aren't Standard as a whole is growing like crazy, with both Modern and EDH taking off. After the last pro tour Amulet Combo pieces and Blue Moon pieces were selling insanely for me even at the new inflated prices, to people who were actually playing with them and not speculators, because suddenly thousands of people are rushing to build the new hot deck and there just aren't so many Teferis out there. That's interesting because I've heard pretty much exactly the opposite from people who say that there are (e.g., even though this is about an entirely different format) enough dual lands for everyone interested in playing competitive legacy, it's just speculators and dealers shifting the perception of value to drive up prices because gently caress you that's why. Stinky Pit posted:There are funny things happening to certain cards like Teferi because of the MTGFinance community but Scalding Tarn is not 100 dollars because people are speculating. What was the print run for Zendikar like? I know we're a few years on from it at this point, but Zendikar wasn't an early-2000s "magic is still a niche nerd hobby" era set either. JerryLee fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Mar 6, 2014 |
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Mar 6, 2014 20:27
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ScarletBrother posted:Why won't they be in Standard? Were Zendikar Standard mana-bases that insane? No, fetches are not insane fixers when basic-typed duals aren't around. There are valid reasons why they might not end up in standard, though. Members of design have noted that they like to limit unnecessary shuffling as much as possible to keep the flow of games going, since shuffles are basically "loading screens". That's definitely a point against them. The mandatory life loss is also something they like to avoid nowadays. I do think we'll see them in standard though, and probably all 10 of them in the same block, just because I'm guessing their desire to support the growth of Modern outweighs design concerns that can't be directly tied to growing the playerbase in the minds of decision-makers.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:29
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I know it's not quite the same deal but we've recently had Evolving Wilds and Ranger's Path in standard for example.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:31
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Saeku posted:I wouldn't categorize this as a speculative bubble, I'd categorize this as a card availability issue. I wouldn't be surprised to hear there are as many people playing Modern now as there were playing in the standards that a lot of these cards were released in. Demand is constantly going up up up and the internet makes it a lot easier to netdeck a list.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:38
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toadee posted:I know it's not quite the same deal but we've recently had Evolving Wilds and Ranger's Path in standard for example. Of course, I didn't mean they plan to eliminate all shuffling. It's a necessary evil for a lot of staple effects in the game. However, fetchlands just existing increases the number of shuffles in every multicolored deck by at least 4 and as many as 12. No other card or cycle in Magic has that amount of impact on shuffling. Also, one of the differences between fetchlands and the two cards you cited is that fetchlands bring the land into play untapped, so they can impact your plays for the current turn. Thus, a lot of times the shuffling from the fetchland will interrupt the flow of your turn, whereas effects that bring the land into play tapped don't typically affect how your current turn plays out, so you can cast/activate the search effect, pass the turn to your opponent, and get your lands while your opponent is taking their turn.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:42
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Woo magic mega thread speculation station! I feel sorry for people who can't make it to Richmond this weekend. Gonna be a lot of crazy trading tomorrow. I was rearranging things and putting more goodies in the binder and holy poo poo I might not even bring everything I want to trade because of theft possibilities. Just a reminder to people that this will be the largest constructed event to date. People know everyone will be walking around with at least $1000 on their person from the mana base of their deck alone, never mind trades. Please be careful with your stuff, guys. I don't know the Richmond area but plan on finding a decent neighborhood we can commute from. Don't want my car broken into like what happened (not to me) in Baltimore.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:43
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I only know of one kind of magic bubble I think it was pretty good in MMM, MMD and MD5 limited. (There's also force bubble and protective bubble but I'm sticking with Inertia Bubble as the best)
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Mar 6, 2014 20:44
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JerryLee posted:That's interesting because I've heard pretty much exactly the opposite from people who say that there are (e.g., even though this is about an entirely different format) enough dual lands for everyone interested in playing competitive legacy, it's just speculators and dealers shifting the perception of value to drive up prices because gently caress you that's why. I've made the argument in the past that there are far far more Duals then people expect but the conclusion isn't speculators and dealers going "gently caress you got mine" My point was that the singles market is so relatively small that it can be highly dysfunctional and that a direct supply and demand relationship isn't capable of providing a full understanding of whats going on. The non rotating format, plus other factors like the reserve list, and just the nature of singles as not only a game piece but collectibles, change peoples behavior drastically. There are rares played heavily in Legacy that were printed in smaller number than Dual Lands and are still valued far less. Players "value" cards on other metrics than just its value as a game piece and its scarcity, so plenty of rares that are played more often, and have less copies printed than say, Savannah or Badlands, cost less than either. EDIT: Remember, Scalding Tarn and Misty Rainforest right now are more expensive than HALF the Dual Lands. When people don't have to worry about rotation anymore what they are willing to pay for a staple card increases at an astronomical rate. It also means that dealers, have to pay more money to get those cards for players. SCG is buying Tarn at 75 dollars, double what they retailed for last year, they wouldn't do that if they had hoarded up all the copies ever. Ciprian Maricon fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Mar 6, 2014 |
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Mar 6, 2014 20:44
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JerryLee posted:That's interesting because I've heard pretty much exactly the opposite from people who say that there are (e.g., even though this is about an entirely different format) enough dual lands for everyone interested in playing competitive legacy, it's just speculators and dealers shifting the perception of value to drive up prices because gently caress you that's why. The thing is, "enough dual lands" is relative. Are there more dual lands than there are players who want to play Legacy? hosed if I know, there are a LOT of REV duals out there, but who knows how many people would want to get into Legacy if duals were cheaper. But exactly because there are a lot of Revised dual lands out there, I don't understand the conspiracy theory that SCG is hoarding tons of duals for profit. You would need to be sitting on an utterly massive amount of duals in order to artificially drive up the market price. At that point, it makes way more sense to just flip your duals. Keep in mind SCG is looking at the market in a completely different way than Joe Ebayer, Speculative Genius. Joe is buying NM Underground Sea at $180 on Ebay and hoping the value of the card rises. If he sells the card before it rises, he loses money. SCG is buying NM Underground Sea at $150 through their buylist, selling it for $250, and then buying another. There's a MASSIVE incentive to keep the inventory moving and keeping a lot of inventory tied up in your speculation vault doesn't make sense for cards that are that high-demand. There is a possibility that market manipulation is occuring with ABU/Arabian Nights/Legends/Portal rares but on that sort of thing there's a WAY smaller supply that makes outright manipulation by single entities more viable.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:49
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Stinky Pit posted:I've made the argument in the past that there are far far more Duals then people expect but the conclusion isn't speculators and dealers going "gently caress you got mine" Agreed, the problem is a lot of those duals are tied up in the casual market, people who would never think to sell their cards, or even really go into a "card shop." They are playing with their deck they built and probably have the dual sitting in a box somewhere. A guy recently tried to sell a box of his magic cards to a gamestop a friend of mine works at. Gamestop wouldn't take them but my friend knew enough to buy it, mostly it was junk but there were 9 wastelands in that pile, he's kept 4 and ebayed the rest. He bought the box off the guy for 85 dollars. I'm sure that he's not alone in that, and I am certain there are plenty of boxes like that, sitting around with cards that just refuse to penetrate the secondary market.
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Mar 6, 2014 20:54
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Lord Of Texas posted:No, fetches are not insane fixers when basic-typed duals aren't around. The shuffling thing is probably a real concern, but they are totally and completely willing to do life as a payment for effects all the drat time. They just reprinted shock-lands, remember? People always vaguely remember that Maro said players hate downsides so therefore somehow they're never going to reprint anything with a downside. Which ignores that a) all he actually said is that all-downside mechanics like Echo score poorly and b) they still print cards with downsides constantly.
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Mar 6, 2014 21:02
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toadee posted:If it's not played in Modern, Legacy, or possibly EDH, it will tank. I have very little perspective on modern and am passingly curious about the only RTR-block card I've spent a lot of money on - does Domri get much play in modern? Seems like he's fine in Jund/Naya, but like I said, I really know gently caress all about the format.
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Mar 6, 2014 21:02
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Boxman posted:I have very little perspective on modern and am passingly curious about the only RTR-block card I've spent a lot of money on - does Domri get much play in modern? Seems like he's fine in Jund/Naya, but like I said, I really know gently caress all about the format. Not enough to sustain his current price. Sell him now, pocket the profits and when he rotates pick him up if you want for Modern at less than you sold him for. EDIT: You can do this a lot. You don't have to go deep buying 100 copies of some rare and hope it blows up. You just have to be willing to do what many players aren't. Deal with not having a particular staple for a few months. Just that alone will net you enough money to make your Magic hobby way cheaper if not pay for itself.
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Mar 6, 2014 21:04
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