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tagesschau posted:Great, now all it has to do is continue flatlining for another 15-25 years to remain a "soft landing." That's totally possible, right? Only if the 10-15% of the population directly employed in building new houses/condos can magically get jobs in Fort McMurray. 
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Mar 15, 2014 22:03
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Franks Happy Place posted:Only if the 10-15% of the population directly employed in building new houses/condos can magically get jobs in Fort McMurray. Not to mention HELOC spending suckout from the economy like in the US bubble crash.
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Mar 16, 2014 00:27
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etalian posted:Not to mention HELOC spending suckout from the economy like in the US bubble crash. Plus implosion of bank profits, death of the FIRE sector, consumer confidence in the toilet... There's a reason we call "soft landings" the unicorns of economics: they don't exist.
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Mar 16, 2014 02:26
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Franks Happy Place posted:Plus implosion of bank profits, death of the FIRE sector, consumer confidence in the toilet... Yeah well did you go to Princeton like our deputy governor Stop being so negative!!!
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Mar 16, 2014 02:30
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tagesschau posted:Great, now all it has to do is continue flatlining for another 15-25 years to remain a "soft landing." That's totally possible, right? We would also need to discover life extension, to stave off the impending wave of Boomers who intend to finance their retirement by selling their houses to buyers who don't exist.
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Mar 16, 2014 02:59
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Rime posted:We would also need to discover life extension, to stave off the impending wave of Boomers who intend to finance their retirement by selling their houses to buyers who don't exist. Oh, I exist, its just that I won't pay more than $300,000-400,000 for a detached home in my neighborhood. 
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Mar 16, 2014 03:01
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Cultural Imperial posted:I don't know about you guys but the only financial news that I'm completely focused on is the impending collapse of China's shadow banking system. It's been about a week since haixin steel defaulted and no one in western press is covering this except the FT. Oh yeah I forgot about China. Yeah that would about do it.
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Mar 16, 2014 03:33
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Franks Happy Place posted:Plus implosion of bank profits, death of the FIRE sector, consumer confidence in the toilet... Yup to reiterate I don't believe a soft landing is possible when you have such pumped up cheap credit bubble and also how the bubble is indirectly connected to so many different industries.
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Mar 16, 2014 03:41
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Cultural Imperial posted:I don't know about you guys but the only financial news that I'm completely focused on is the impending collapse of China's shadow banking system. It's been about a week since haixin steel defaulted and no one in western press is covering this except the FT. This sounds like something that should get its own thread. 
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Mar 16, 2014 03:53
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Brannock posted:This sounds like something that should get its own thread. Let's just say they took the Keynesian solution for a recession to the extreme since the government controls vast sections of the economy though state owned industries.
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Mar 16, 2014 04:08
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Mr. Wynand posted:You know it's been about a year since prices stopped rising IIRC. That doesn't mean things won't collapse at the first sign of trouble (like a major euro collapse or Russia doing something insane), but until that happens it's not exactly crazy to describe what is currently happening as a "soft landing".
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Mar 16, 2014 11:00
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Mr. Wynand posted:Oh yeah I forgot about China. Yeah that would about do it. The thing about China is; push comes to shove they are still mostly a centralized system. It doesn't really matter if their capitalist financial system collapses, government enterprises will run if the Chinese Communist Party wants them to run. They would not even bat an eye if rationing or price controls where needed to stave off any kind of financial crisis. Building so many luxury apartments may be a waste of resources, but it's not going to create a crisis like it would in a capitalist economy. It does however put many people to work doing something at least semi-productive. When other places are slashing budgets, China continues to grow. In fact, all these corrupt new wealthy Chinese capitalists have invested heavily in these bogus projects. When the market collapses it will take at lot of these capitalists with it. Sounds like a good way of controlling the oligarchs so they don't get stupid like the USSR and think about splitting up the company 
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Mar 16, 2014 11:39
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China is actually notoriously decentralised when it comes to practical economic decisionmaking authority. If Beijing had tight control of provincial cadres, they wouldn't have a problem getting them to rein in the property bubbles, local gov't debt, abusive enclosures, etc. e: theres a review of some of these issues here http://down.aefweb.net/AefArticles/aef130101Shen.pdf Paper Mac fucked around with this message at 12:08 on Mar 16, 2014 |
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Mar 16, 2014 11:46
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An important thing to remember when discussing china is that the government will go to great length to keep people employed - people with jobs don't have as much time to revolt. The Chinese government basically hosed the worldwide tanker market last year because their shipyards were slowing down and starting to layoff people. China's gonna delay the crash as long as they can artificially, but when it does go down... It's going to be a disaster of epic proportion.
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Mar 16, 2014 12:26
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http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/home+sales+largest+year+over+year+increase/9626205/story.htmlquote:Canadian home sales are expected to rebound this spring, with B.C. forecast to see the largest year-over-year increase and contribute the most to national sales activity. lol loving vancouver sun why do they even bother pretending to be a newspaper
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Mar 18, 2014 04:28
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Cultural Imperial posted:http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/home+sales+largest+year+over+year+increase/9626205/story.html They've certainly been doing a run of things lately: 
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Mar 18, 2014 04:50
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I've never understood how a newspaper called the "xxx SUN" can possibly be taken seriously. Did the word sun mean something different in the 1890s or whatever?
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Mar 18, 2014 05:02
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Throatwarbler posted:I've never understood how a newspaper called the "xxx SUN" can possibly be taken seriously. Did the word sun mean something different in the 1890s or whatever? it's basically spun off the Murdoch newspaper concept hence trash articles and lots of nice big tit girls.
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Mar 18, 2014 05:13
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Throatwarbler posted:I've never understood how a newspaper called the "xxx SUN" can possibly be taken seriously. Did the word sun mean something different in the 1890s or whatever? "Sunlight is the best disinfectant", and etc. "Shining light" onto the unknown going-ons of the day.
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Mar 18, 2014 05:14
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Brannock posted:"Sunlight is the best disinfectant", and etc. "Shining light" onto the unknown going-ons of the day. Plus it's dependable, it comes daily.
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Mar 18, 2014 05:17
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Sassafras fucked around with this message at 06:16 on Mar 25, 2014 |
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Mar 18, 2014 05:20
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http://www.vancouversun.com/news/metro/Huge+demand+tiny+rental+units+Vancouver/9628610/story.htmlquote:“There’s a huge demand for these small micro-units in the centre of the city,” he said. “In order to make them affordable, they need to be very small, condensed units with shared washrooms. That’s just a fact of life.” In other news, we are all obliged to work 80 hour weeks for free. That's just a fact of life.
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Mar 18, 2014 07:17
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Cultural Imperial posted:http://www.vancouversun.com/news/metro/Huge+demand+tiny+rental+units+Vancouver/9628610/story.html Pretty much a sign that there's no affordable rents around similar to other overpriced cities such as SF or Washington DC.
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Mar 18, 2014 07:38
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Same thing's being pushed in Boston. It's "housing for millennials." Y'know, because if you're young and underpaid, it's your wanting to stretch out your arms that's the problem. It's absolutely disgusting. Truly, these are the cyberpunkest of times.
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Mar 18, 2014 15:22
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First-time home buyers in Toronto plan to spend $408,300 on average: BMOToronto Star posted:A Bank of Montreal report on first-time home buyers says the average budget has increased to $316,100. I have to believe that the only people left in the market are either independently wealthy or planning to borrow far more than is healthy because they're deluded about future interest rates and their own future earning potential. Given people's actual incomes, the number of houses being bought and sold, and the pigeonhole principle, the overwhelming majority have to fall into the latter category.
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Mar 18, 2014 16:20
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Cultural Imperial posted:http://www.vancouversun.com/news/metro/Huge+demand+tiny+rental+units+Vancouver/9628610/story.html "Hey Millenials! You love backpacking around the world in hostels, right? Well now you can bring that experience back home!"
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Mar 18, 2014 16:27
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Thought experiment: what if Canadians, culturally, value home ownership so much relative to renting that they are willing to pay through the nose to participate at the expense of every other aspect of their lives? Maybe this is a new normal.
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Mar 18, 2014 16:32
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Lexicon posted:Thought experiment: what if Canadians, culturally, value home ownership so much relative to renting that they are willing to pay through the nose to participate at the expense of every other aspect of their lives? Maybe this is a new normal. This essentially makes Canada the new Dubai. The run up in prices is Dubai was caused by rising petrol prices and Islamic law. Basically all these people were getting rich and they couldn't do anything with their money except buy houses because it was forbidden by Islamic law. I don't think the market for sukuks was as developed at the time. So instead of Islamic law, Canadians believe in the holy doctrine of home ownership administered by archbishop rennie and cardinal lamb. Wow I am so full of poo poo this morning
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Mar 18, 2014 16:51
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I would really enjoy living in one of those micro-lofts with the murphy beds and stuff, especially since I'm pretty minimalist when it comes to possessions anyways. I'm just not willing to pay $900+/month for the joy of doing so when I can rent 1/4 of a pretty drat huge house for $500. The only people willing to rent in these warrens are those too fiscally irresponsible to suck it up about having roommates, trust fund babies who are storing most of their belongings in their parents basement so that they can pretend to be "living on the edge".
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Mar 18, 2014 17:56
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Also people who've never had to share a bathroom with neighbors since the first year of college. poo poo sucks.
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Mar 18, 2014 20:12
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Plus, any savings in rent would be made up for with increased spending on food since there's no way to cook.
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Mar 18, 2014 20:15
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mastershakeman posted:Plus, any savings in rent would be made up for with increased spending on food since there's no way to cook. wow, what the hell, I never even thought of that. How does the developer of these things expect that particular circle to be squared?
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Mar 18, 2014 20:18
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Lexicon posted:wow, what the hell, I never even thought of that. How does the developer of these things expect that particular circle to be squared? My roommate has access to a stove, slow-cooker and a rice-cooker in my kitchen whenever he wants, but instead he consistently eats frozen dinners and takeout way more than he cooks anything. Which is fine by me, because way less mess and competition for kitchen use. So, I think some people would welcome the excuse to not have to cook.
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Mar 18, 2014 20:36
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Rick Rickshaw posted:My roommate has access to a stove, slow-cooker and a rice-cooker in my kitchen whenever he wants, but instead he consistently eats frozen dinners and takeout way more than he cooks anything. Which is fine by me, because way less mess and competition for kitchen use. I guess that's true. I can't fathom it myself, as I really enjoy cooking (and eating) fairly-elaborate meals, but I'm probably in the minority at this point.
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Mar 18, 2014 20:48
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Lexicon posted:I guess that's true. I can't fathom it myself, as I really enjoy cooking (and eating) fairly-elaborate meals, but I'm probably in the minority at this point. Nah I'm with you here dude; when I was apartment hunting 4 years back the first thing I looked at was the kitchen. oven/stove suck? Not enough counter space? lovely small fridge? No drat thanks. Second thing was bedroom space, so these new tiny spaces are anathema to me.
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Mar 18, 2014 21:11
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JawKnee posted:Nah I'm with you here dude; when I was apartment hunting 4 years back the first thing I looked at was the kitchen. oven/stove suck? Not enough counter space? lovely small fridge? No drat thanks. Yeah. Nothing demoralizes like a poo poo kitchen if you have even the slightest interest in cooking/food.
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Mar 18, 2014 21:22
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Flaherty out. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/finance-minister-jim-flaherty-resigns-from-cabinet/article17549674/ Leaving for the 'private sector' which I can only assume is a euphemism for 'Bay St'
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Mar 18, 2014 21:25
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Haha I hope Harper replaces him with some retard like Kenney or even better, a libertarian rear end in a top hat like Moore. This crash is going to be so painful.
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Mar 18, 2014 21:37
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I'm totally cool with a tiny bedroom. What the hell do I do in there but sleep and get dressed? I want a big kitchen and main room. Nice bathroom is a plus too, size isn't as important as it being easy to keep clean. Too many apartments have nasty bathrooms with wobbly toilets, stained tubs, and hosed faucets. I could probably do ok in a tiny unit that was a nice sized kitchen/main area, a "bed closet" to sleep in, and a bathroom. That is if I wasn't nuts about model trains and need an entire full sized bedroom for it. Paying for a 2br unit for my loving trains because I know I'll never be a retired old guy with a big basement because I'm never going to afford a house and I probably won't have a retirement either.
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Mar 18, 2014 21:41
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Cultural Imperial posted:Basically all these people were getting rich and they couldn't do anything with their money except buy houses because it was forbidden by Islamic law. This is hilarious if you know anything about Islamic finance tbh
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Mar 18, 2014 21:53
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