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Awesome!
Oct 17, 2008

Ready for adventure!


I check this thread every couple days for status updates.

"lol still loving lost"
Okay :)

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Obligatory Handle
Feb 27, 2004

by Lowtax
Just dropping back in to say they're all dead at the bottom of the ocean.

I Greyhound
Apr 22, 2008

MusicKrew Dawn Patrol

mckenna posted:

Here's an interesting graphic from the Wall Street Journal showing the mountain peaks and sea troughs that the search areas arc through. Pretty unforgiving terrain.



A few people asked in the last 5 pages or so why the northern and southern arcs don't join. The reason is that if the plane were in that middle zone, two different satellites would have received the signal. Since the second satellite didn't get the last engine update (only the one over the Indian ocean), it was definitely not sent from that central exclusion arc.

Jake Armitage
Dec 11, 2004

+69 Pimp

duckmaster posted:

No. My definition (and the definition of Occam's razor) says that we choose what we do know and what we do have facts for.

If you consider "the simplest explanation is the correct one" and "the simplest explanation is correct" to be the same thing then I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you are not a native English speaker. Or even an English speaker. Or even a speaker.

I mean for fucks sake this poo poo is on the wikipedia page for crying out loud and apparently you can't even be bothered to check that before you try to debate me.

The wiki sums it up thus: The sun, moon and other solar system planets can be described as revolving around the Earth. Still that explanation is unnecessarily complex compared to the modern consensus that all solar system planets revolve around the Sun.

We know the plane has disappeared. We know this. We have no doubt about this. And yet you have just stated that it has obviously "exploded into dust over the ocean"; whilst that may have happened you have not, in any way argued against my fact. Until you can give any sort of explanation as to how the plane has not disappeared you are directly working against Occam's razor.


I am constantly amazed by how people can be so confused by this principle but hopefully this makes it clear for you :)

Wow. I got loving told.

duckmaster posted:

Hypothesis 1: The plane was hijacked by terrorists. Evidence:

Hypothesis 2: The plane disappeared. Evidence:

Hypothesis 1 does not fit Occam's razor. Hypothesis 2 does. How is this so hard to comprehend?

Hypothesis 2 isn't a hypothesis. It's an observation. Ok I get it, you're kidding and I don't get the joke.

Jake Armitage fucked around with this message at 00:42 on Mar 18, 2014

Salt Fish
Sep 11, 2003

Cybernetic Crumb
Occums razor cant be right because there are tons of complicated things all over the place. Look at a wrist watch or something. If the simplest thing is always correct we'd be walking around with sun dials on our wrists.

rocket_man38
Jan 23, 2006

My life is a barrel o' fun!!
http://abcnews.go.com/International/clues-sought-malaysian-airlines-pilots-homemade-flight-simulator/story?id=22940217

Vidya games did it!

Telemarchitect
Oct 1, 2009

TOUCH THE KNOB
What if the plane was actually hijacked by a guy named occam with a box cutter

makes u think

snuggle baby luvs hugs
Aug 30, 2005
help I'm lost in an Occam's razor argument

PleasureKevin
Jan 2, 2011

Well guys, Malaysia has now changed the timeline and says the transponder may not have been disabled before the "goodnight" message. They say it could have been disabled at "any time".

That's a pretty critical detail that caused everyone's inference of hijacking and suicide. If any doubt is cast on the Roll's Royce data, I think they could consider turning their asses back around to the Gulf of Thailand. I knew this time would come, I hope you got your wild theories in while you could.

e: Link: http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/closeread/2014/03/the-story-of-flight-370-changes-again.html

Evil_Greven
Feb 20, 2007

Whadda I got to,
whadda I got to do
to wake ya up?

To shake ya up,
to break the structure up!?

I Greyhound posted:

A few people asked in the last 5 pages or so why the northern and southern arcs don't join. The reason is that if the plane were in that middle zone, two different satellites would have received the signal. Since the second satellite didn't get the last engine update (only the one over the Indian ocean), it was definitely not sent from that central exclusion arc.
Ahh, I had wondered about that. Makes sense, didn't know about the other sats. Thanks.

demonR6
Sep 4, 2012

There are too many stupid people in the world. I'm not saying we should kill them all or anything. Just take the warning labels off of everything and let the problem solve itself.

Lipstick Apathy
Every time I watch the Malay government give a press conference I like to play circus music. You just expect clowns to come out at any minute.

Vin BioEthanol
Jan 18, 2002

by Ralp
2 questions re: the estimated location along the arc (but not in the middle of it.)

Do these rolls Royce maintenence transponders run even if the engines off? I assume not since the pings of that led them to say "it flew for 7 more hours" instead of "we know it didn't crash for at least 7 hours.

But if they do run on a battery even if the engine is shut off could a roof of a hangar be lowering the signal strength and it's closer to the sat than thought?

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
occams razor says that the simplest answer to this thread is :gas:

Arclyte
Apr 21, 2002

never trust an elf posted:

help I'm lost in an Occam's razor argument

Yeah starting to think what happened was the co-pilot start getting pedantic about Occam's Razor and the pilot decided to just nose down to end the misery.

Orkin Mang
Nov 1, 2007

by FactsAreUseless

duckmaster posted:

Hypothesis 1: The plane was hijacked by terrorists. Evidence:

  • Terrorists boarded the plane
  • Terrorists somehow took over the plane
  • Terrorists flew the plane somewhere and did something with it


Hypothesis 2: The plane disappeared. Evidence:

  • Turn on a television



Hypothesis 1 does not fit Occam's razor. Hypothesis 2 does. How is this so hard to comprehend?

you are so loving stupid hahahaha

Sponge Baathist
Jan 30, 2010

by FactsAreUseless
fifty pages later and the armchair rescue heroes still ain't found poo poo

texasmed
May 27, 2004
i think it's safe to say that the plane is in multiple pieces now at least, unless it isn't

swampland
Oct 16, 2007

Dear Mr Cave, if you do not release the bats we will be forced to take legal action

Obligatory Handle posted:

Just dropping back in to say they're all dead at the bottom of the ocean.

Just because they're at the bottom of the ocean doesn't mean they're dead

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AUEjzVQwKo

It's just ockham's razor really

rocket_man38
Jan 23, 2006

My life is a barrel o' fun!!

Double Muhammad posted:

fifty pages later and the armchair rescue heroes still ain't found poo poo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6HIqxq1Umc

They're trying.

Subliminal Sauce
Apr 6, 2010

Spreading freedom and spreading it thick; that's just a thing us right-wing nutjobs do!
Next thing you know, Schrödinger's pussy will be shaved with Occam's razor, right inside the box!

ayekappy
Aug 22, 2004

Brie Cheesin'
Wouldn't the simplest explanation for the transponder or whatever being turned off RIGHT WHEN THEY WERE SWITCHING AIRSPACE be foul play?

PleasureKevin
Jan 2, 2011

I think we have a winner here:

https://plus.google.com/app/basic/stream/z13cv1gohsmbv5jmy221vrfyiz3vdhbop04

This pilot is totally convinced that a fire or other disaster broke out and took out the communications. The pilot instinctively turned towards the airstrip at Pulau Langkawi, which runs South West. While approaching, they became incapacitated and the plane kept on flying until it ran out of fuel.

Orkin Mang
Nov 1, 2007

by FactsAreUseless

ayekappy posted:

Wouldn't the simplest explanation for the transponder or whatever being turned off RIGHT WHEN THEY WERE SWITCHING AIRSPACE be foul play?

no, occams razor would say quite otherwise, if only you would apply it. the simplest explanation according to the razor would be that the plane and all its cargo underwent a sudden catastrophic cessation of material existence immediately following its last known position. in fact, however, there is another slightly different option, that it maintained its physical continuity but was transposed into another material dimension causally discontinuous with this our own. either way one must conclude by inevitable logical thinking that the best explanation is that it was most assuredly disappeared without a trace. i hope this application of scientific logic will help you find the truth more easily in future :)

texasmed
May 27, 2004
I don't think a razor is going to help find the plane, but I guess at this point the Malaysians are willing to try anything

PleasureKevin
Jan 2, 2011

Put away the razors and get a fine-tooth comb!

hehh, very funny jokes about razors itt,,,,

XK
Jul 9, 2001

Star Citizen is everywhere. It is all around us. Even now, in this very room. You can see it's fidelity when you look out your window or when you watch youtube

I had already chosen a name for what I would choose to be my future identity, if I ever found a need to change my name. I've now changed my choice to Occam's Razor.

Bareback Werewolf
Oct 5, 2013
~*blessed by the algorithm*~

PleasureKevin posted:

I think we have a winner here:

https://plus.google.com/app/basic/stream/z13cv1gohsmbv5jmy221vrfyiz3vdhbop04

This pilot is totally convinced that a fire or other disaster broke out and took out the communications. The pilot instinctively turned towards the airstrip at Pulau Langkawi, which runs South West. While approaching, they became incapacitated and the plane kept on flying until it ran out of fuel.

This has been my theory all along but I didn't wanna share it cuz I don't want to look stupid.

Telemarchitect
Oct 1, 2009

TOUCH THE KNOB

Arclyte posted:

Yeah starting to think what happened was the co-pilot start getting pedantic about Occam's Razor and the pilot decided to just nose down to end the misery.

CommissarMega
Nov 18, 2008

THUNDERDOME LOSER

demonR6 posted:

Every time I watch the Malay government give a press conference I like to play circus music. You just expect clowns to come out at any minute.

But they do- they're the Malay government!

bonestructure
Sep 25, 2008

by Ralp

xsuperkidx posted:

:tinfoil: I think you might be putting too much faith in Malay radar. How do you know they didnt just start tracking SIA68/SQ68 as a cover up while aliens hijacked the plane over Vietnam to land on the moon?

and yet I still feel smarter than Don Lemon

George H.W. Cunt
Oct 6, 2010





I want to believe that Courtney Love found the plane so much

SteveVizsla
Mar 19, 2009

Why do I always want to sock it to you so hard?

PleasureKevin posted:

I think we have a winner here:

https://plus.google.com/app/basic/stream/z13cv1gohsmbv5jmy221vrfyiz3vdhbop04

This pilot is totally convinced that a fire or other disaster broke out and took out the communications. The pilot instinctively turned towards the airstrip at Pulau Langkawi, which runs South West. While approaching, they became incapacitated and the plane kept on flying until it ran out of fuel.

Wouldn't the plane have crashed pretty quickly if there's a fire, instead of keep flying?

Rob Ford
Aug 12, 2013

by XyloJW
I know there's lots of floating debris after a crash in the ocean, but how long does it take for that poo poo to sink?

The Unholy Ghost
Feb 19, 2011

Copley Depot posted:

"The plane disappeared" is an observation. "Occam's razor" pertains to hypotheses for why the plane disappeared. Specifically, it says that we should prefer the most parsimonious hypothesis for why the plane disappeared.

For example, it is more parsimonious to think that the plane crashed than that it was hijacked by the illuminati who will use it for a false flag terrorist attack.

"Parsimonious"? Jesus, someone has a small penis.

Elphiem
Dec 4, 2005

CFC Fan
Mehrunes' razor > Occam's razor

PleasureKevin
Jan 2, 2011

SteveVizsla posted:

Wouldn't the plane have crashed pretty quickly if there's a fire, instead of keep flying?

Planes are immune to smoke inhalation, but people aren't.

Elphiem posted:

Mehrunes' razor > Occam's razor

If you honestly use Mehrune's razor over Occam's, you live in a loving fantasy world.

cloven hoof
Mar 17, 2009
Courtney Love shot the plane and made it look like a suicide.

Lobok
Jul 13, 2006

Say Watt?

Double Muhammad posted:

fifty pages later and the armchair rescue heroes still ain't found poo poo

Ah poo poo guys, we were supposed to be looking for the plane this whole time. Let's join arms and sweep the surrounding area until we find some clues. Watch out for dog poo poo and fox holes.

StopMakingSense
Sep 16, 2004
Sax and Violins

PleasureKevin posted:

I think we have a winner here:

https://plus.google.com/app/basic/stream/z13cv1gohsmbv5jmy221vrfyiz3vdhbop04

This pilot is totally convinced that a fire or other disaster broke out and took out the communications. The pilot instinctively turned towards the airstrip at Pulau Langkawi, which runs South West. While approaching, they became incapacitated and the plane kept on flying until it ran out of fuel.

This was written before the satellite pings were disclosed, I think. He tries to address them in the comments, but only looks at the length of time, not the position of the arcs and the plane's last observed bearing. He's starting from a point of "the pilot's couldn't have been involved because pilots are awesome" and aligning the facts to that.

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Sponge Baathist
Jan 30, 2010

by FactsAreUseless
has anyone made the joke of asian people making great cars










but lousy drivers

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