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Sir Tonk posted:Man I wish this had happened, although I wouldn't want to have to wait until 65 to get my Johnsoncare. Renal failure makes it kick in regardless of age so get working on those kidneys. Also Johnsoncare sounds like the punchline for a Your Mom joke.
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Apr 28, 2014 03:59
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Gen. Ripper posted:Hahahaha look at you thinking the modern Democratic Party will ever divorce from the unholy trifecta of bipartisanship, compromise and moderation. At least now we are starting to see Obama call out the republicans as assholes and make them look super dumb. Hell, even Boehner is calling the R caucus a bunch of crybabies. There is a good sized tone-shift going on in DC and I hope we can move past the "party of compromise" poo poo now that everyone knows that the republicans are just contrarian rear end in a top hat children.
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Apr 28, 2014 05:04
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Joementum posted:It wasn't just that CO recall election and it wasn't just failing to publish polls they didn't like, they were dumping answers from polls and then publishing the rest of the results. They got called out on this by Cohn, Nate, and the Monkey Cage crew. It was enough for them to promise they wouldn't do it any more at the start of this year. Weren't they also the ones to modify their results to fit the polling averages at the time?
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Apr 28, 2014 07:53
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comes along bort posted:Nate Cohn had a piece last year questioning their methodology, which is what started the backlash. Like most TNR writers he's an idiot, and it was largely forgotten. It is also impressive the ways in which partisanship warps the brain, regardless of what side you're on. Cohn wrote a piece that made a valid and substantive criticism of a dubious polling technique, but because it was aimed it a liberal polling outlet he's somehow a gigantic moron for doing
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Apr 28, 2014 14:05
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Gen. Ripper posted:Hahahaha look at you thinking the modern Democratic Party will ever divorce from the unholy trifecta of bipartisanship, compromise and moderation. It's almost as if they suffer from a fatal belief in democracy.
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Apr 28, 2014 14:08
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dilbertschalter posted:It is also impressive the ways in which partisanship warps the brain, regardless of what side you're on. Cohn wrote a piece that made a valid and substantive criticism of a dubious polling technique, but because it was aimed it a liberal polling outlet he's somehow a gigantic moron for doing No it's more Cohn is actually kinda stupid and consistently demonstrates little understanding of the subjects he covers. Drew Linzer's take, which was that PPP uses a shrinkage estimator in weighting that might be problematic, is more on point. You're making the same assumption which you paint critics of Cohn's piece with: my problem isn't with PPP's lovely methodology, it's with Cohn not being the person to make that criticism. Which I said verbatim earlier. Alec Bald Snatch fucked around with this message at 15:05 on Apr 28, 2014 |
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Apr 28, 2014 15:02
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Cohn's latest article about the white vote was embarassingly bad.
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Apr 28, 2014 15:09
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Joementum posted:Cohn's latest article about the white vote was embarassingly bad. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/25/upshot/rebutting-claim-that-obama-had-wider-support-among-southern-whites.html made it seem like it was mostly a misunderstanding.
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Apr 28, 2014 15:16
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quote:Wait, does anyone even remember that the shutdown even happened anymore?
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Apr 28, 2014 15:21
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Gen. Ripper posted:Hahahaha look at you thinking the modern Democratic Party will ever divorce from the unholy trifecta of bipartisanship, compromise and moderation. From a volunteer's perspective, what training and direction I've had from others has almost wholly been about turning out the base rather than swaying independents- the lesson learned from 2010 midterms, at least in the Michigan Democratic Party, was make sure Democrats actually get out and loving vote this time, goddamn. Organizers and directors still talk about 2010 with a mix of horror, despair and shame.
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Apr 28, 2014 15:40
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pangstrom posted:I don't know, I didn't get into the weeds on it but his counter He fails to address Bartels' main criticism, which was that the accompanying graphic didn't back up the point Cohn was trying to make and that using county-level data misrepresents the size of the population, since land can't vote. I'd also add that the 2012 exit polls were a particularly poor tool to use for this exercise because, as a cost savings measure, the AP decided not to conduct exit polling in a bunch of states.
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Apr 28, 2014 15:59
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Ofaloaf posted:From a volunteer's perspective, what training and direction I've had from others has almost wholly been about turning out the base rather than swaying independents- the lesson learned from 2010 midterms, at least in the Michigan Democratic Party, was make sure Democrats actually get out and loving vote this time, goddamn. Organizers and directors still talk about 2010 with a mix of horror, despair and shame.
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Apr 28, 2014 16:23
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Speaking of Cohn and shoddy analysis, he's got a new piece up today on turnout issues in North Carolina and the trouble Hagan faces. Except he undercuts his entire argument by pointing out if the race had been held in 2010 (which he considers a worst-case scenario) she still would've won. And that's without getting into the whole Democrats are only young college-educated northern transplants in the Triangle/Charlotte nonsense, or why Tillis in particular is a weak candidate.
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Apr 28, 2014 16:28
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comes along bort posted:Speaking of Cohn and shoddy analysis, he's got a new piece up today on turnout issues in North Carolina and the trouble Hagan faces. Except he undercuts his entire argument by pointing out if the race had been held in 2010 (which he considers a worst-case scenario) she still would've won. And that's without getting into the whole Democrats are only young college-educated northern transplants in the Triangle/Charlotte nonsense, or why Tillis in particular is a weak candidate. quote:r.thomas castro valley, ca 2 hours ago LOL. A liberal version of Onion's cartoonist Kelly? It has 16 likes, somehow, maybe for the pun.
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Apr 28, 2014 16:38
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FMguru posted:This is greatly heartening to hear, since once of the most appalling things about 2010 was how no one seemed to be held accountable for such an across-the-board shitkicking. I figured everyone just agreed to pretend that it was all the fault of the Tea Party and gosh we couldn't have done nothin' and then keep their jobs, but it sounds like down at the nuts-and-bolts level people really are treating 2010 as a lesson in What Not To Do. If the Democrats had to do 2010 again, they would of seen Martha Coakley's election as a warning sign and would of at least fought harder on the ACA. This maybe paranoia too but the media saw 2010 coming and instead of calling the Tea Party out on their awful policies and people they put into government, they instead stayed silent because they wanted access to the next Congress.
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Apr 28, 2014 16:42
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comes along bort posted:Speaking of Cohn and shoddy analysis, he's got a new piece up today on turnout issues in North Carolina and the trouble Hagan faces. Except he undercuts his entire argument by pointing out if the race had been held in 2010 (which he considers a worst-case scenario) she still would've won. And that's without getting into the whole Democrats are only young college-educated northern transplants in the Triangle/Charlotte nonsense, or why Tillis in particular is a weak candidate. I think he does have a point on the question of whether some older, registered Dems would vote for Hagan again given that there's now an Obama in the White House and Obamacare is A Thing. A lot of these voters are in conservative areas (Eastern NC, Jim Hunt Country) and are the right demographic to see flip.
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Apr 28, 2014 16:42
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In Michigan, how is the population loss affecting the electorate? From what I've seen, the people leaving are rich, old, and white, or the GOP's base.
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Apr 28, 2014 16:55
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De Nomolos posted:I think he does have a point on the question of whether some older, registered Dems would vote for Hagan again given that there's now an Obama in the White House and Obamacare is A Thing. A lot of these voters are in conservative areas (Eastern NC, Jim Hunt Country) and are the right demographic to see flip. I think most of them who were going to flip likely did when she actually shared a ticket with Obama, plus there's fewer people in Eastern NC and the other rural areas now than in 2008. Tillis is gonna be hitting up Kannapolis and Cary a lot harder and more often than Greenville and Hickory. There's still the upcoming legislative session and the 4th circuit gay marriage ruling, which could affect the race as well.
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Apr 28, 2014 16:59
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comes along bort posted:I think most of them who were going to flip likely did when she actually shared a ticket with Obama, plus there's fewer people in Eastern NC and the other rural areas now than in 2008. Tillis is gonna be hitting up Kannapolis and Cary a lot harder and more often than Greenville and Hickory. I'm talking about the areas that flipped from blue to red in this map and aren't majority-minority counties. Granted, they are small counties, but in that hypothetical 2010 Hagan-Dole election, they could make up the difference. We're basically talking the entire 7th and 3rd congressional districts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:North_Carolina_Gubernatorial_Election_Results_by_county,_2008.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nc_gov_2012.png Note: it's almost as weird seeing places like Onslow County in blue on that first map as it is seeing West Virginia being blue on the 1988 Dukakis-Bush map, seeing how partisanship has moved since then. I know there's a large black population through there, but drat. That's one of the most culturally right wing white populations you will find anywhere.
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Apr 28, 2014 17:07
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You can't really go by the change between gubernatorial elections because McCrory was a fluke. Washington Post has a county map which covers presidential votes going back to 2004: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/election-map-2012/president/
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Apr 28, 2014 17:12
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Ofaloaf posted:From a volunteer's perspective, what training and direction I've had from others has almost wholly been about turning out the base rather than swaying independents- the lesson learned from 2010 midterms, at least in the Michigan Democratic Party, was make sure Democrats actually get out and loving vote this time, goddamn. Organizers and directors still talk about 2010 with a mix of horror, despair and shame. Speaking of which, is there any traction on the Goontools that people were brainstorming in IRC a couple weeks ago? My father is the county chair and GOTV is basically priority 1 for this fall. I'd love to be able to deliver him some tools to make this better happen.
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Apr 28, 2014 17:18
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comes along bort posted:You can't really go by the change between gubernatorial elections because McCrory was a fluke. In what sense? Older Democratic voter movement towards his party mirrors what the Presidential statewide vote has been doing among those voters. McCrory wasn't a particularly special GOP candidate, no more than other seemingly "moderate" Charlotteans like Jim Martin or Richard Vinroot (at least on the surface).
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Apr 28, 2014 17:30
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You don't remember Perdue bailing at the last second and the state dems completely imploding after 2010? McCrory got something like a third of the dem vote, which would never happen under normal circumstances. If you look at the other statewide races, ticket splitting has almost entirely died off. The only other people who did as poorly as Dalton in 2012 were total jokes like Deb Goldman and John Tedesco.
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Apr 28, 2014 17:38
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comes along bort posted:You don't remember Perdue bailing at the last second and the state dems completely imploding after 2010? McCrory got something like a third of the dem vote, which would never happen under normal circumstances. If you look at the other statewide races, ticket splitting has almost entirely died off. The only other people who did as poorly as Dalton in 2012 were total jokes like Deb Goldman and John Tedesco. I mean, I don't doubt that's part of it, but the movement away from the Dems in those areas is still very real (I'd need some solid numbers on McCrory-Obama voters outside Charlotte, though). Deb Goldman and Tedesco and whoever were exceptionally weak, but what about stronger fundraisers like Dan Forrest? He barely won, but he would have had no business winning before 2010. No one has any clue who Sue Myrick is outside Charlotte. He would have been one of those forgotten Patrick Ballentine-like fuckers who only appeals to the dead-enders since they have no natural base outside parts of their home city. If they'd run real candidates for the other exec. positions instead of letting Ron Paultards like whoever it was that ran for Treasurer get on the ballot, we could be looking at a very difference scenario. I don't know if Bev stepping down earlier could have helped anything. How separate was the state Dem approval rating from hers? (You'll have to excuse me if I don't remember all these details, I was in VA at the time and paying much more attention to those races) De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 17:53 on Apr 28, 2014 |
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Apr 28, 2014 17:50
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SavageBastard posted:Speaking of which, is there any traction on the Goontools that people were brainstorming in IRC a couple weeks ago? My father is the county chair and GOTV is basically priority 1 for this fall. I'd love to be able to deliver him some tools to make this better happen.
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Apr 28, 2014 18:05
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De Nomolos posted:I mean, I don't doubt that's part of it, but the movement away from the Dems in those areas is still very real (I'd need some solid numbers on McCrory-Obama voters outside Charlotte, though). Deb Goldman and Tedesco and whoever were exceptionally weak, but what about stronger fundraisers like Dan Forrest? He barely won, but he would have had no business winning before 2010. No one has any clue who Sue Myrick is outside Charlotte. He would have been one of those forgotten Patrick Ballentine-like fuckers who only appeals to the dead-enders since they have no natural base outside parts of their home city. If they'd run real candidates for the other exec. positions instead of letting Ron Paultards like whoever it was that ran for Treasurer get on the ballot, we could be looking at a very difference scenario. But that's my point though- those were all exceptionally weak candidates. Goldman and Tedesco were tied to the Wake school board resegregation fiasco, plus Goldman's affairs with board members and her ridiculous money and jewels in a backpack theft story. Dalton had no time to prepare a campaign against a guy who'd been running since 2007 and got outspent like 3:1. All the other council of state races were in line with partisan trends. quote:I don't know if Bev stepping down earlier could have helped anything. How separate was the state Dem approval rating from hers? There was Dumplin, but also everyone getting tired of the scandals from the Hunt/Easley crew and a lot of the old school dem legislators deciding to call it quits after 2010, which led to a scramble for new candidates without the connections. The actual statewide popular vote for the legislature in 2012 though was somewhere around 51/49 and 52/48 house and senate respectively in favor of republicans, which was more in line with the presidential vote that year. And like I mentioned, the state dems were effectively nonexistent that year. Alec Bald Snatch fucked around with this message at 18:20 on Apr 28, 2014 |
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Apr 28, 2014 18:07
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Who writes the DNC fundraising emails? They all have subjects like DOOMED and TERRIBLE NEWS and YOU'RE NOT GONNA LIKE THIS! By November we're going to run out of panic.
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Apr 28, 2014 20:47
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Democratic panic is such an infinite resource that if we found some way to harness it to produce energy we'd live in a post-scarcity utopia (where Democrats would still find some reason to panic).
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Apr 28, 2014 20:51
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Ammat The Ankh posted:Who writes the DNC fundraising emails? They all have subjects like DOOMED and TERRIBLE NEWS and YOU'RE NOT GONNA LIKE THIS! By November we're going to run out of panic. Gotta keep the people in the mailing list on their toes. In all fairness, I'd be shocked if RNC emails didn't read exactly the same way. It's a psychological thing--if you read an email that said "Yeah, so, polls are looking OK, but you should probably send us money. Just in case", I can't imagine the return on it would be very good. Fritz Coldcockin fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Apr 28, 2014 |
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Apr 28, 2014 21:08
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Ofaloaf posted:Does your dad not have access to Votebuilder/Voter Activation Network? I don't know what state you're in, but VAN is what we're using in Michigan for GOTV and it does an admirable job of that. He has something but Fried Chicken or Joementum made it sound like a lot of the other tools that a lot of people found useful had been deactivated.
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Apr 28, 2014 21:53
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Alter Ego posted:Gotta keep the people in the mailing list on their toes. Somehow I got on their mailing list. Here's today's: quote:(Name),
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Apr 29, 2014 00:35
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SavageBastard posted:It's almost as if they suffer from a fatal belief in democracy. Democracy doesn't mean much if it entails constantly selling out the people to literal corporate fascists I'm afraid.
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Apr 29, 2014 00:41
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StarMagician posted:Somehow I got on their mailing list. Here's today's: "Somehow"
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Apr 29, 2014 00:46
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SedanChair posted:"Somehow" "All I did is give the GOP my name, email address and money, how do they know to hit me up for more money?!"
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Apr 29, 2014 01:13
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Ofaloaf posted:From a volunteer's perspective, what training and direction I've had from others has almost wholly been about turning out the base rather than swaying independents- the lesson learned from 2010 midterms, at least in the Michigan Democratic Party, was make sure Democrats actually get out and loving vote this time, goddamn. Organizers and directors still talk about 2010 with a mix of horror, despair and shame. I'm having flashbacks about working with the Michigan Democratic Party and county parties reading this post. I worked on a congressional race in Michigan n 2012. The MDP gave each county party access to a rudimentary VAN, which is fine in theory, but meant that any party activist feels like the Obama data director. They just wanted to cut lists of Democrats and go to town doing Get Out The Vote months before the election, instead of advanced DCCC targeting that included persuadables as well. There are a lot of jackoff campaigns that don't know how to target, but in a real campaign, targets are chosen for a reason and backseat driving "wisdom" from yard signs to targeting is almost always a bad decision.
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Apr 29, 2014 03:23
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Democrazy posted:I'm having flashbacks about working with the Michigan Democratic Party and county parties reading this post. I worked on a congressional race in Michigan n 2012. The MDP gave each county party access to a rudimentary VAN, which is fine in theory, but meant that any party activist feels like the Obama data director. They just wanted to cut lists of Democrats and go to town doing Get Out The Vote months before the election, instead of advanced DCCC targeting that included persuadables as well. There are a lot of jackoff campaigns that don't know how to target, but in a real campaign, targets are chosen for a reason and backseat driving "wisdom" from yard signs to targeting is almost always a bad decision. *On the other hand, some more traditionally-minded partisans still regularly request such signs, so the lesson was less outright "gently caress lawn signs" and more "lawn signs are useless for swaying voters but supporters still appreciate having that means of showing their support, so if you have the resources try to have some for them"
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Apr 29, 2014 04:02
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Lawn signs are at least still popular in Virginia. We have an incumbent city councillor who has these detachable messages he'll put on top of his big yard signs, but they say boring stuff like "CAPITAL INVESTMENTS" and "INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS." I can't see how that matters, but I guess it makes it noticeable. Fairfax County was the worst for signs: http://m.fairfaxtimes.com/article/2...rfaxtimesMobile
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Apr 29, 2014 16:13
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De Nomolos posted:Lawn signs are at least still popular in Virginia. We have an incumbent city councillor who has these detachable messages he'll put on top of his big yard signs, but they say boring stuff like "CAPITAL INVESTMENTS" and "INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS." I can't see how that matters, but I guess it makes it noticeable. My roommate last year worked for OFA in Prince William County and they all hated yard signs. I'm getting the sense yard signs are a young/old divide.
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Apr 29, 2014 16:33
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The funny thing about yard signs is that they always lead you to believe that the Greens have a much better chance in Northern VA! They're really good at putting up signs and getting 10% in local elections. In non-sign news, another poll is out (from SurveyUSA) showing no GA Senate candidate with anywhere near even 30%. Unfortunately, it's once again Perdue and Kingston in the lead, and either will beat Nunn easily. I really, really, really want Paul Broun to stay in. I just really want a one-on-one between him and anyone. Also, lots of weird Magellan Strategies (R) polls out showing everything from a tie between Walker and Burke to a 2 point lead for Voldemort. De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Apr 29, 2014 |
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Apr 29, 2014 16:37
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Lawn signs are a thing you give people who will ABSOLUTELY not do anything else but they are pretty ineffective.
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Apr 30, 2014 03:12
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