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Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Coldforge posted:

The reasoning is pretty simple. The value of the players this year in the 33-100 range is higher than in years past, because of the extra 80 or so underclassmen who declared. There are several teams looking to trade out of the top ten and get more picks this year, in large part because of this. The 49ers have a lot of top 100 picks to offer, and are one of the few teams (possibly) looking to trade into the top ten.

We've been over this before (twice now), but I'll go ahead and repeat it. Do I think it's likely? No. Am I saying it's likely? No. Would I be very happy if it happened? Yes.

I was referring more to people that were saying it would be smart to trade down for that little. I understand the concept, but there were some posters overvaluing 2nd round picks either way.

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PrinceRandom
Feb 26, 2013

Ozu posted:

The Jets and Rams both have 12. I do the mock simulator on FanSpeak and I can't fathom trying to find a roster spot for that many people. I hope they use some of the later trashy picks to move up in the 2nd or 3rd.

http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/

I get to blow picks on Logan Thomas and Colt Lyera when I play Texans Drafter.

Amy Pole Her
Jun 17, 2002
How lovingly condescending

PrinceRandom
Feb 26, 2013

AAA DOLFAN posted:

How lovingly condescending

Me? It's a luxury to draft a coke head and an athletic player with no position. It's nice to theoretically draft them with surplus picks.

Chris James 2
Aug 9, 2012


Jim Nantz says he's heard the Cowboys will do whatever it takes to get Manziel

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

gently caress that, I don't want to have to hate Manziel.

The Puppy Bowl
Jan 31, 2013

A dog, in the house.

*woof*
Looks like Jerry is entering the final stages of his transformation into Al Davis, except somehow worse.

Parmesan Basil
Nov 12, 2008

TIME IS THE FIRE IN WHICH WE BURN THE GAME CLOCK

This will literally never happen.

John Brown
Jul 10, 2009

Parmesan Basil posted:

This will literally never happen.

You don't know Jerry Jones. I'm not saying it is going to, because no one loving knows.

But with Jerry it's definitely a possibility.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Friendly reminder that Manziel owns. Him being in Dallas would rival Tebow coverage.

Rasczak
Mar 30, 2005


I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas traded up maybe a few spots to get him assuming he fell, but this "do whatever it takes" nonsense sounds like more pre-draft smoke and mirror bullshit

PrinceRandom
Feb 26, 2013

Maybe when I said I wanted Manziel in the NFC I should clarified not with the loving Cowboys. Stay away Jerry.

Gumbel2Gumbel
Apr 28, 2010

Wouldn't Romo be the ideal quarterback to sit him behind and trade away though?

Parmesan Basil
Nov 12, 2008

TIME IS THE FIRE IN WHICH WE BURN THE GAME CLOCK

John Brown posted:

You don't know Jerry Jones. I'm not saying it is going to, because no one loving knows.

But with Jerry it's definitely a possibility.

I'm also under the impression that Football doesn't leave the top 8, so

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

Gumbel2Gumbel posted:

Wouldn't Romo be the ideal quarterback to sit him behind and trade away though?

Didn't they just sign Romo to a huge extension?

Edit: yep, $55 million guaranteed deal, signed last march. I guess they could trade him after another two years without problem.

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

I got a taste for blown saves

Coldforge posted:

Didn't they just sign Romo to a huge extension?

Yeah the first time they can trade/cut him without taking a cap hit is after the 2016 season

If they were to trade/cut him now they'd eat a $30m cap hit :laugh:

Rasczak
Mar 30, 2005

Parmesan Basil posted:

I'm also under the impression that Football doesn't leave the top 8, so

If Dallas gave up what's necessary (probably getting fleeced in the process) to move from 16 to the top 5-8 pick with that dumpster fire of a defense and lack of moves in free agency due to cap issues and then picked Johnny loving Football it would just



My reaction would be like that but also involve a liquor cabinet

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
It would be the most poetic thing in sports history if the Cowboys traded Everything to the Vikings who then built the core for multiple Super Bowl runs.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

^^ :argh: ^^

Manziel to the Vikings, promptly traded to Dallas for Romo, 16, their second, third, 2014 first and Second, and 2015 first.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

Rap posted:

I actually do think either approach could work just fine, depending on what your team needs and what the prospects are like. It's hard to really talk in terms of "I'd rather pick 10th" vs "I'd rather pick 30th and 40th" or whatever, without knowing who the prospects are.
Based on that analysis I posted early in the thread, for that trade it's a ~350 Career Approximate Value Over Average guy for a ~200 and two ~150 guys. I don't think you can say 350<500 so DO IT because you can't play an infinite number of players at one time and like you said you might really benefit from a specific team-changing player, but in a vacuum I would trade down in that situation.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

waah
Jun 20, 2011

Better stay in line when
You see a Pavel like me shinin

IcePhoenix posted:

^^ :argh: ^^

Manziel to the Vikings, promptly traded to Dallas for Romo, 16, their second, third, 2014 first and Second, and 2015 first.

More like Vikings intended to trade their pick to Dallas. However the Vikings couldn't manage to make a decision in time yet again, so both teams end up screwed as Buffalo drafts Manziel inexplicably.

Grozz Nuy
Feb 21, 2008

Welcome to Moonside.

Wecomel to Soonmide.

Moonwel ot cosidme.

Volkerball posted:

Man deep draft chat has really messed with ya'lls head when you're like yeah Khalil Mack is real good and all, but if you trade that pick you could get Gabe Jackson in the second.

It's more that I like Mike Evans and all, but if it's a choice between him and 3 top 60 picks and a third next year, I'll take my chances with the other billion receivers in this class. Especially since they need at least one more starting-caliber corner because Culliver had to be a dipshit after they let Brown walk for peanuts.

The Puppy Bowl
Jan 31, 2013

A dog, in the house.

*woof*
Mike Evans doesn't bring much value to the 49ers. His main move is just being big enough to come down with 50/50 balls and already have Boldin, Crabtree, and even VD who excel at that sort of thing. I would think that a speed guy who can consistently get open would be of much more use to them.

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

The Puppy Bowl posted:

Mike Evans doesn't bring much value to the 49ers. His main move is just being big enough to come down with 50/50 balls and already have Boldin, Crabtree, and even VD who excel at that sort of thing. I would think that a speed guy who can consistently get open would be of much more use to them.

What. No.

Crab and VD are not great contested receivers. Boldin is, yes, but he's only there for another year or two. Evans is a perfect fit for the 49ers, and exactly what they need.

Grozz Nuy posted:

It's more that I like Mike Evans and all, but if it's a choice between him and 3 top 60 picks and a third next year, I'll take my chances with the other billion receivers in this class. Especially since they need at least one more starting-caliber corner because Culliver had to be a dipshit after they let Brown walk for peanuts.

It seems like most of the CBs they like in the draft are mid to late round guys, anyway (like every year).

Edit: There are definitely other receivers in this draft that I like (Adams, Bryant, OBJ, Cooks, Street, Herron, Matthews, Landry, etc etc), but none of them as much as Evans. I really can't say the same about any of the CBs at the top of the draft.

Coldforge fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Apr 28, 2014

DupaDupa
May 21, 2009

I'm Samurai Mike
I stop 'em cold.

The Puppy Bowl posted:

Mike Evans doesn't bring much value to the 49ers. His main move is just being big enough to come down with 50/50 balls and already have Boldin, Crabtree, and even VD who excel at that sort of thing. I would think that a speed guy who can consistently get open would be of much more use to them.

Crabtree is not a jump ball receiver, Boldin is like 33, and having your only good TE as your only jump ball receiver isn't a great idea. Plus calling Evans only a jump ball receiver is really disingenuous. Dude is already a good blocker, has fantastic break away speed, and great hands. He's a fantastic prospect.

Evans wouldn't be the piece that takes back the division from the Seahawks but he is a piece that pushes the Niner's WR Corps from "Painfully Average" to "Hey That's Pretty Good."

The Puppy Bowl
Jan 31, 2013

A dog, in the house.

*woof*
I'll admit I was projecting for VD just because of his size but Crabtree has some of the best, most natural hands in the NFL. Does he really struggle with contested catches?

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

The Puppy Bowl posted:

I'll admit I was projecting for VD just because of his size but Crabtree has some of the best, most natural hands in the NFL. Does he really struggle with contested catches?

Yes to both.

The Puppy Bowl
Jan 31, 2013

A dog, in the house.

*woof*
That's so odd about Crabtree. Does he just not have the strength to muscle the ball off guys or what?

I'm really not sold on Evans. Like 50% of his routes were comebacks which gels with JFFs mad scrambling so I'm not too sure he can get open in less than 12 seconds, he has a tendency to oscillate between astounding 200 yard games and really pedestrian 40 yard ones, he lacks the necessary explosion to get consistent separation, he is an absolute OPI machine with a bit of a temper and his tattoos are pretty dumb.

He has good hands, a great catch radius, decent speed for his size, and an insane talent for sea of hands catches but there is too much bust potential for me to be comfortable taking him in the 1st round. He's on that list of players I hope get picked before the Ravens are up along with the QBs, Eric Ebron, and Taylor Lewan.

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

The Puppy Bowl posted:

That's so odd about Crabtree. Does he just not have the strength to muscle the ball off guys or what?


You look at his number, and you'd think he'd be great. Decent size, long arms, good vertical. He's just really awful at the timing and getting height on the other guy. It could be because of his recurring foot problems, or because he's not getting enough separation to reach the ball first. I don't know.

The same sort of thing is true for VD. Good size, should be able to muscle his way to any ball, but he has a really awful tendency to body catch.

Danny LaFever
Dec 29, 2008


Grimey Drawer

The Puppy Bowl posted:

I'm really not sold on Evans. he has a tendency to oscillate between astounding 200 yard games and really pedestrian 40 yard ones, he lacks the necessary explosion to get consistent separation, he is an absolute OPI machine with a bit of a temper and his tattoos are pretty dumb.


Receivers do that all the time. Calvin Johnson has both kinds of games.

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

Grozz Nuy posted:

It's more that I like Mike Evans and all, but if it's a choice between him and 3 top 60 picks and a third next year, I'll take my chances with the other billion receivers in this class. Especially since they need at least one more starting-caliber corner because Culliver had to be a dipshit after they let Brown walk for peanuts.

Follow up to this, my list of CBs is: Desir, Verrett, Joyner, Gaines, Lawson, Williams, Watkins, Byndom, Cockrell, Hal, Richardson, Lowery, Breeland, Benwikere. Ward, Zimmerman, Watkins, Bucannon, Sunseri, Joyner, Benwikere at safety. Lots of late round depth in the secondary.

Coldforge fucked around with this message at 01:49 on May 4, 2014

fan of the browns
Apr 6, 2012


my enemy...
the enemy of every human who has ever lived...
this is the life-force that watches over the Dinosaurs.
The Browns are inviting Vince "HOOK EM" Young to camp. Manziel is a loving lock ya'll.


SlipUp
Sep 30, 2006


stayin c o o l

Danny LaFever posted:

Receivers do that all the time. Calvin Johnson has both kinds of games.

He's a big guy, but he's older. I guess when they get older they're not going to be as physical, you know what I'm saying?
______/

Febreeze
Oct 24, 2011

I want to care, butt I dont

Coldforge posted:

The same sort of thing is true for VD. Good size, should be able to muscle his way to any ball, but he has a really awful tendency to body catch.

My 49er fan friend had a drinking game that played as "Take a drink every time Vernon jumps to catch a ball that doesn't need to jumped for" and I could never unsee it. Every time the ball is thrown his way he hops to catch it in his midsection.

His other game was "Drink everytime VD doesn't break a tackle", because he always goes down on first contact despite being enormous.

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

Febreeze posted:

My 49er fan friend had a drinking game that played as "Take a drink every time Vernon jumps to catch a ball that doesn't need to jumped for" and I could never unsee it. Every time the ball is thrown his way he hops to catch it in his midsection.

His other game was "Drink everytime VD doesn't break a tackle", because he always goes down on first contact despite being enormous.

I assume he "had" the drinking game because he died of alcohol poisoning.

waah
Jun 20, 2011

Better stay in line when
You see a Pavel like me shinin

Febreeze posted:

My 49er fan friend had a drinking game that played as "Take a drink every time Vernon jumps to catch a ball that doesn't need to jumped for" and I could never unsee it. Every time the ball is thrown his way he hops to catch it in his midsection.

His other game was "Drink everytime VD doesn't break a tackle", because he always goes down on first contact despite being enormous.

The answer is clear. Vernon Davis had to be a rugby player in his past life and he can't break the thought process of "If I'm in the air when I catch the ball they can't tackle me til I land!"

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib
After months of reviewing draft poo poo and stuff and looking over past drafts I just hope the Packers don't draft yet another unknown for the defensive line as their top pick, that's all I want out of this year's draft. Highly drafted defensive linemen tend to have terrible work ethic or injury issues much more often than not. It honestly made me cringe last draft whenever I saw a DL being picked in the first.

Take a nice safe linebacker or safety Ted.

Febreeze
Oct 24, 2011

I want to care, butt I dont

Coldforge posted:

I assume he "had" the drinking game because he died of alcohol poisoning.

He's also the guy who came up with the Alex Smith drinking game when he was on the 49ers. He drank Screwdriviers every week when we watched and I'm really surprised he never had to go to the hospital.

I've spent so much time watching the 9ers because of my friends that they are practically a second team that I still hate anyway

Bad Ideas Good
Oct 12, 2012

Febreeze posted:

My 49er fan friend had a drinking game that played as "Take a drink every time Vernon jumps to catch a ball that doesn't need to jumped for" and I could never unsee it. Every time the ball is thrown his way he hops to catch it in his midsection.

His other game was "Drink everytime VD doesn't break a tackle", because he always goes down on first contact despite being enormous.

This plus concentration drops sounds like everything I have seen of Kelvin Benjamin.

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Roasted Donut
Aug 24, 2007

NWA WHITE POWERRR!!!!

Coldforge posted:

gently caress that, I don't want to have to hate Manziel.

he managed to be the coolest dude despite being a loving aggie, being cool as a cowboy would be child's play in comparison

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